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Don't Fret About Twins Prospect Rankings

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#21 gunnarthor

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Posted 07 March 2017 - 08:26 AM

 

 

Yes, the Twins have a lot of interesting guys in the low minors, and it is certainly true that the Twins system might look a lot better in a year or two if these guys all develop like we hope. But the problem is that the Twins are not unique in this regard. There are probably 20 teams that have half-a-dozen or more interesting guys in rookie ball or instructional league, and each one can make the same arguement that there farm system will be so much better if these kids just develop like they hope.

But it doesn't really matter what other teams do. If, this season, a few of these things happen - not all - the Twins ranking skyrockets. Jay shows he can start. Stewart's krate/mechanics improve, Romero continues to break out at AA, Thorpe and Burdi get back on track after their injuries. And/or some of the 2016 draft class emerge. Frankly, none of those things are impossible and some, I think, are quite likely.

 

Ignoring rankings, the Twins AA rotation is apparently going to be Jay, Stewart, Gonsalves and Romero. That should be really exciting to follow. They all have flaws but all four have also been on top 100 lists this offseason.

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#22 USAFChief

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Posted 07 March 2017 - 08:32 AM

Aside from some "iffy" picks, I think the biggest reason the Twins farm system lacks talent compared to some others is the team's refusal to bust the international budget every other year like the smart teams did.

 

 

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#23 gunnarthor

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Posted 07 March 2017 - 08:59 AM

 

Aside from some "iffy" picks, I think the biggest reason the Twins farm system lacks talent compared to some others is the team's refusal to bust the international budget every other year like the smart teams did.

I'm not sure it's fair to blame the FO for the Pohlad family NOT spending money.  Until the family shows a real wiliness to spend above pre-determined limits, I don't think you can blame the FO. Add in the personal friendship they have with Selig - who really didn't want teams to go over - and their resistance to increasing market value for players and it seems like fans will have to wait for new ownership before that sort of thing happens.


#24 birdwatcher

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Posted 07 March 2017 - 09:05 AM

 

Aside from some "iffy" picks, I think the biggest reason the Twins farm system lacks talent compared to some others is the team's refusal to bust the international budget every other year like the smart teams did.

 

I was about to mention this. For those who want to see a top third or top quartile ranking in a year or two, the emergence of a lot of those IFA signees will be the challenge and the main competition. But, given this year's draft order, they might make it with just an average amount of good fortune. The Kirilloff news  doesn't signal a change in that however.

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#25 DocBauer

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Posted 07 March 2017 - 09:05 AM

Yes, I am an optomist and always have been. Nice write up BTW! There are ebbs and flows to any season as well as prospect rankings. They change every season as guys fail, get hurt, or graduate to the majors. Even those who rank the systems can't entirely agree on a set list.

Personally, I'm very excited at Gonsalves, Mejia, Stewart, Jay, Romero, Jorge, Reed, Melotakis, Hildenberger and Burdi all at AA or above and ready to make some moves this season. If even a couple of them reach their potential it's a huge boost to the Twins. And some of those guys are still quite young or have limited time this far.

Is there a bit of a gap in position players right now? Yes. But that's also due to graduation. There are still a couple interesting bats besides Gordon that could be solid players in the upper levels, and some intriguing prospects with high upside in the lower levels. Right now, the bulk of top prospects are in the way of pitchers that are getting close. And pitching is something we really need.

I'm actually pretty excited to see what happens in Chattanooga and Rochester.
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#26 dbminn

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Posted 07 March 2017 - 09:07 AM

 

Aside from some "iffy" picks, I think the biggest reason the Twins farm system lacks talent compared to some others is the team's refusal to bust the international budget every other year like the smart teams did.

 

Are the Twins going to be aggressive with international signings this year? I've read about the Marte rumors. Seems like this will be a good year to pounce with a lot of the big money teams out of the running.

 

 


#27 gunnarthor

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Posted 07 March 2017 - 09:33 AM

 

Are the Twins going to be aggressive with international signings this year? I've read about the Marte rumors. Seems like this will be a good year to pounce with a lot of the big money teams out of the running.

They'll spend their pool amount - as always - but I doubt they go over. They've alternated over the last few years with quantity v. quality hunting. Sounds like this year they'll go big after a select few instead of passing it out to a bunch of different kids.

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#28 TheLeviathan

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Posted 07 March 2017 - 09:36 AM

 

Jay has had only 2 professional seasons and only one as a starter.  2.84 ERA and 68 K in 69-2/3 innings is not that bad in his first season as a starter at Fort Myers, is it?  Then he ran out of gas in 14 IP in AA.  I would not put him in the same sentence as Stewart, and give him another season or 2.  By then, he should be knocking on the Twins door

 

You're right, he's not in the same tier as Stewart.  But he is a former top 10 pick who is struggling to crack the Top 100.  That's not the goal with those picks.  And not something we can afford either.


#29 Thrylos

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Posted 07 March 2017 - 09:38 AM

 

Are the Twins going to be aggressive with international signings this year? I've read about the Marte rumors. Seems like this will be a good year to pounce with a lot of the big money teams out of the running.

 

Can he pitch? ;)

 

Realistically, the Twins have been fairly aggressive in the IFA market as far as position players go.  The pitchers they have been after were not "top targets".

 

 

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#30 TheLeviathan

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Posted 07 March 2017 - 09:38 AM

 

I'm not sure it's fair to blame the FO for the Pohlad family NOT spending money.  Until the family shows a real wiliness to spend above pre-determined limits, I don't think you can blame the FO. Add in the personal friendship they have with Selig - who really didn't want teams to go over - and their resistance to increasing market value for players and it seems like fans will have to wait for new ownership before that sort of thing happens.

 

Except, they have been more aggressive spending in that way under Smith.  And Ryan told us time and time again that they never told him "no" to more money.

 

The Pohlads likely deserve some blame, but it's not that simple either.


#31 Thrylos

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Posted 07 March 2017 - 09:44 AM

 

You're right, he's not in the same tier as Stewart.  But he is a former top 10 pick who is struggling to crack the Top 100.  That's not the goal with those picks.  And not something we can afford either.

 

None of the pitchers who were drafted behind him cracked the top 100 this season either.  Carlson Fulmer did last year, but so did Jay...   

Really the BA top 100 is not a predictor of future performance.  Ask Delmon Young

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#32 Mike Sixel

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Posted 07 March 2017 - 09:44 AM

 

Except, they have been more aggressive spending in that way under Smith.  And Ryan told us time and time again that they never told him "no" to more money.

 

The Pohlads likely deserve some blame, but it's not that simple either.

 

He also said "the team" wasn't aggressive. I don't give a poop if it was the owner or the FO that refused to be more aggressive, the end result is the same for the system.

 

Some people are perfectly fine with one of the worst teams in baseball for the last 5 years not having a good minor league system (compared to other teams, people here keep posting about the prospects here, w/o any context of comparing to other systems.....which is kind of important when judging a system). I'm not. 

 

We can hope that Stewart and Jay turn out, but hope isn't really a strategy or a way of assessing things.....

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#33 Mike Sixel

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Posted 07 March 2017 - 09:45 AM

 

None of the pitchers who were drafted behind him cracked the top 100 this season either.  Carlson Fulmer did last year, but so did Jay...   

Really the BA top 100 is not a predictor of future performance.  Ask Delmon Young

 

this is so tiresome. Want to bet real money on whether or not a player is more likely to be good if they are ranked higher? Anecdotes prove nothing. Nothing.

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#34 USAFChief

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Posted 07 March 2017 - 10:12 AM

 

He also said "the team" wasn't aggressive. I don't give a poop if it was the owner or the FO that refused to be more aggressive, the end result is the same for the system.

 

 

Precisely.  It doesn't matter "who."

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#35 gunnarthor

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Posted 07 March 2017 - 10:13 AM

 

He also said "the team" wasn't aggressive. I don't give a poop if it was the owner or the FO that refused to be more aggressive, the end result is the same for the system.

 

Some people are perfectly fine with one of the worst teams in baseball for the last 5 years not having a good minor league system (compared to other teams, people here keep posting about the prospects here, w/o any context of comparing to other systems.....which is kind of important when judging a system). I'm not. 

 

We can hope that Stewart and Jay turn out, but hope isn't really a strategy or a way of assessing things.....

I think it's better to say some people aren't as pessimistic. As noted, guys like Klaw and Sickels have better views of the Twins system. I think it's a bit stupid - frankly - to expect that every pick hits. Top picks fail for everyone.  And arguing that the Twins don't spend money in FA so they need to be better isn't particularly riveting. The Twins had four top 6 picks. So far, none of those four have failed and all are on pace to make the majors. Some of their ceilings should be lowered.

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#36 Mike Sixel

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Posted 07 March 2017 - 10:15 AM

 

I think it's better to say some people aren't as pessimistic. As noted, guys like Klaw and Sickels have better views of the Twins system. I think it's a bit stupid - frankly - to expect that every pick hits. Top picks fail for everyone.  And arguing that the Twins don't spend money in FA so they need to be better isn't particularly riveting. The Twins had four top 6 picks. So far, none of those four have failed and all are on pace to make the majors. Some of their ceilings should be lowered.

 

Here is a list of people expecting every pick to hit:

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#37 Oldgoat_MN

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Posted 07 March 2017 - 10:19 AM

 

I don't know about the "Twins Daily", but I always liked Nolasco

Yes Thrylos, you're always about the stats (17 year old draftees excluded). 

That's what I, for one, count on from you.

 

The annoyance with Nolasco was twofold:

1. He was above average on our bad team, but he wasn't really very good (he never posted an ERA+ above 93 for us)

2. When Jim Pohlad said to Terry Ryan, "Get us some pitching, dammit!", TR promptly ran out and spent big money on Ricky Nolasco. All the while a guy like Scott Kazmir was sitting around and eventually signed for fewer years and fewer $/year.  Nolasco wound up kind of being 'blamed' for Ryan's signing.

 

TR always seemed more concerned with the floor than the ceiling. So to be fair, Nolasco was what his history showed that he was: a below average NL pitcher.

Edited by Oldgoat_MN, 07 March 2017 - 10:20 AM.

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#38 birdwatcher

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Posted 07 March 2017 - 10:24 AM

 

Except, they have been more aggressive spending in that way under Smith.  And Ryan told us time and time again that they never told him "no" to more money.

 

The Pohlads likely deserve some blame, but it's not that simple either.

 

That they determined to spend more aggressively under Smith is a fallacy that gets constantly promoted here. The spending you and others see as proof, Sano in particular, was a product of opportunity, not some change in attitude or strategy. Sano would have been signed under Ryan. I'd love to bet my entire net worth on that and double it.

 

No Twins owner or official has ever explained why the Twins elected to avoid busting the IFA pool. That doesn't stop people from thinking they know why, but they're speculating.

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#39 Mike Sixel

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Posted 07 March 2017 - 10:30 AM

 

That they determined to spend more aggressively under Smith is a fallacy that gets constantly promoted here. The spending you and others see as proof, Sano in particular, was a product of opportunity, not some change in attitude or strategy. Sano would have been signed under Ryan. I'd love to bet my entire net worth on that and double it.

 

No Twins owner or official has ever explained why the Twins elected to avoid busting the IFA pool. That doesn't stop people from thinking they know why, but they're speculating.

 

We don't know that.

 

we know that they were aggressive one year under Smith, and spent a lot of money. We know they never spent that much money before Smith (when Ryan was GM), nor did they spend more than budget later.

 

Are you saying there was NEVER an opportunity, in all the years Ryan was GM, to spend more money (either in his first tenure, or his second)?

 

Edited by Mike Sixel, 07 March 2017 - 10:30 AM.

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#40 gunnarthor

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Posted 07 March 2017 - 10:32 AM

 

Here is a list of people expecting every pick to hit:

And  yet you constantly post like you expect it. Kohl Stewart was a risky pick - a HS pitching arm is the most dangerous pick in the draft.  Fans demanded that we do so. And now those same fans are blaming the Twins because Stewart - despite being 21 at AA and logging a crapton of innings - isn't highly ranked on prospect lists.  That seems to suggest an unrealistic expectation.  

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