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Article: Draft Preview: Five to Focus On

hunter greene kyle wright alex faedo jeren kendall mlb draft
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#21 Mike Sixel

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Posted 27 February 2017 - 09:08 AM

 

I know this is insane but . . . what about Greene being a real two-way player? By all accounts he has the talent, the athleticism and the makeup to do whatever he puts his mind to. I'm just saying, imagine it is 2021 or 2022, and Travis Blankenhorn is your second baseman against RHP (he can't hit LHP for ****), but Greene pitches every fifth game and platoons at 2B against LHP . . . Just saying. I know the chances of this are less than 1%, but still . . . how cool would that be.

 

Bad idea, imo.. If you want him to be a great pitcher, you have him concentrate on pitching. And on not getting hurt also.

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#22 gunnarthor

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Posted 27 February 2017 - 09:09 AM

What are the chances that Bakauskas can clean up his delivery enough to be a starter at the ML level?  If we could sign him #1 at #4 money ...


#23 Mike Sixel

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Posted 27 February 2017 - 09:12 AM

Me? I like Wright or Greene right now, in February. I want UPSIDE. 

 

If Kendall could get to a 5 tool player (i.e., he could make contact), he'd be the obvious #1 choice. But, if you can't make contact, that's an issue.

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I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#24 gunnarthor

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Posted 27 February 2017 - 09:14 AM

 

The previous regime almost always went with the "safe" college arm, or HS OF with tools... Mostly it was a conservative approach. I want the new regime to gamble on the highest upside possible. And that certainly sounds like Greene. 

I'm not sure that's true at all.  Their drafts since 2012 have been some HS OF with tools but also several HS arms and some non-typical college arms (lots of relievers).  Actually, looking at picks taken in the top 100 of each of those drafts only 5 players qualify as a "safe" college arm or HS OF - Buxton, Eades, Kiriloff, Babadoo and Jax.  
 

Lots and lots of college relievers and a fair number of HS SS were nabbed as well.

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#25 markos

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Posted 27 February 2017 - 09:29 AM

 

Too early to figure out who the Twins should pick.

 

However.The last prep pitcher who was drafted 1-1 and signed, was a "cannot miss prospect" like Hunter Greene is.The immortal Brien Taylor, lefty mind you. (Great retrospective on that signing here.A must for any Greene fans.)

 

The competition that high schoolers are facing is about 5-10% (at best) of what College pitchers are facing (and this assumes that 1 of their opponents will make it as a starter in a College squad, which is not really true.)And if one has a 98 mph fastball as their only good pitch, he can fool a lot of high school kids....

The take-home message from the article you linked: If the Twins take Greene, the most important thing is to make sure he doesn't tear his rotator cuff while defending his brother in a bar fight.

 

Personally, I don't think the competition quality for high schoolers is very important, particularly for pitchers. I'm very confident that professional scouts and decision makers are not judging Greene's abilities by his box score stats, but rather are judging this tools and projection. But even beyond that, Greene (and almost every other top high school prospect) spent a lot of his summer playing in showcase tournaments around the country. Outside of the top-tier of the SEC, not many college players have the opportunity to play against a dozen or more potential first round picks like the HS players get to in these tournaments.

 

Also, I'm not sure how much weight to put on secondary pitches (or lack there of) right now. How good were Kershaw's secondaries coming out of HS? I know that was the big knock on Bumgarner going into his draft. At a certain level, the selection of a HS pitcher is a bet on the projection of their tools: arm strength, athleticism, build and work ethic. I'm not sure how much present-day stuff and results factor into that.

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#26 markos

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Posted 27 February 2017 - 09:34 AM

 

Me? I like Wright or Greene right now, in February. I want UPSIDE. 

 

If Kendall could get to a 5 tool player (i.e., he could make contact), he'd be the obvious #1 choice. But, if you can't make contact, that's an issue.

Agree on Kendall.

 

How much upside does Wright have? He is sitting low-to-mid 90s, and occasionally cracking 95. Translating that to pro-ball workload, that isn't terribly impressive. Gerrit Cole he is not (as one recent example). Is he even at the Kevin Gausman level? It will be interesting to see how his velocity tracks during the next months, but right now I'm not impressed.


#27 Vanimal46

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Posted 27 February 2017 - 09:43 AM

 

I'm not sure that's true at all.  Their drafts since 2012 have been some HS OF with tools but also several HS arms and some non-typical college arms (lots of relievers).  Actually, looking at picks taken in the top 100 of each of those drafts only 5 players qualify as a "safe" college arm or HS OF - Buxton, Eades, Kiriloff, Babadoo and Jax.  
 

Lots and lots of college relievers and a fair number of HS SS were nabbed as well.

 

You can consider it non-typical college arms, but they are still college arms. If we move the sample size from 2012 to 2000, the trend of HS toolsy players or college arms is clear. 


#28 nicksaviking

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Posted 27 February 2017 - 09:45 AM

After Greene I've been most interested in Faedo. That might change though if he keeps throwing 120 pitches per game. Man, the velocity will leave his FB before he's 25 if he keeps getting abused like that.

 

Seriously, It's still February, some of those coaches from big programs seem to have next to no concern for anything past the June college WS. A playoff by the way that Florida is almost certainly going to be part of whether Faedo throws 119 pitches in February or not.

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#29 gunnarthor

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Posted 27 February 2017 - 09:46 AM

 

You can consider it non-typical college arms, but they are still college arms. If we move the sample size from 2012 to 2000, the trend of HS toolsy players or college arms is clear. 

Oh, sure.  But that's a few different regimes/draft coordinators.  Things really changed under Deron Johnson.  And "safe" college arms, to me, sounded like the control specialist college pitchers Radcliff drafted - Slowey, Baker, Duensing et al.  Completely different from the high upside velocity/high risk reliever strategy of Johnson.

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#30 Mike Sixel

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Posted 27 February 2017 - 09:50 AM

 

After Greene I've been most interested in Faedo. That might change though if he keeps throwing 120 pitches per game. Man, the velocity will leave his FB before he's 25 if he keeps getting abused like that.

 

Seriously, It's still February, some of those coaches from big programs seem to have next to no concern for anything past the June college WS. A playoff by the way that Florida is almost certainly going to be part of whether Faedo throws 119 pitches in February or not.

 

I would never let my kid go to a college program if he would be a top HS pitcher/1st/2nd round pick. Most of the coaches don't care about the athletes at all. 

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I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#31 Vanimal46

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Posted 27 February 2017 - 09:51 AM

 

Oh, sure.  But that's a few different regimes/draft coordinators.  Things really changed under Deron Johnson.  And "safe" college arms, to me, sounded like the control specialist college pitchers Radcliff drafted - Slowey, Baker, Duensing et al.  Completely different from the high upside velocity/high risk reliever strategy of Johnson.

 

That's fair. I didn't make it clear before when I said safe college arms. Your examples definitely qualify. Johnson's high velocity, converting relievers into starters hasn't worked out well either. If they're searching for a front-line starter, I hope this time they take someone who's currently starting. 


#32 Jeremy Nygaard

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Posted 27 February 2017 - 09:51 AM

 

Agree on Kendall.

 

How much upside does Wright have? He is sitting low-to-mid 90s, and occasionally cracking 95. Translating that to pro-ball workload, that isn't terribly impressive. Gerrit Cole he is not (as one recent example). Is he even at the Kevin Gausman level? It will be interesting to see how his velocity tracks during the next months, but right now I'm not impressed.

 

He's still maturing physically. He's still developing as a starter after relieving his first season. I'd say he's got a ton of upside. 

 

When I did my fall "ask-around" (before the Twins clinched the #1 spot), one scout told me he'd take Wright first overall. 

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#33 Trov

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Posted 27 February 2017 - 10:40 AM

From all I read I want Greene, but I would use him as a fielder first, as long as he has good hit tool.  From what I read he has the heat, but other pitchers are behind, as expected from a HS pitcher.  If he fails as a hitter you can change to pitcher easier than from pitcher to hitter after missing so much time hitting, being he would never hit in the organization.

 

For those thinking outside the box, why not use him as a hitter then dabble with him in the bullpen as a potential closer down the road.  He plays game as a position player and 9th comes along and he takes the mound.  I do agree one should not split what he is learning but better option than going from starter to position player.  

 

Overall as it sits now, I would take Greene start him as a hitter and if he falters move him to the mound.


#34 Mike Sixel

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Posted 27 February 2017 - 10:49 AM

 

From all I read I want Greene, but I would use him as a fielder first, as long as he has good hit tool.  From what I read he has the heat, but other pitchers are behind, as expected from a HS pitcher.  If he fails as a hitter you can change to pitcher easier than from pitcher to hitter after missing so much time hitting, being he would never hit in the organization.

 

For those thinking outside the box, why not use him as a hitter then dabble with him in the bullpen as a potential closer down the road.  He plays game as a position player and 9th comes along and he takes the mound.  I do agree one should not split what he is learning but better option than going from starter to position player.  

 

Overall as it sits now, I would take Greene start him as a hitter and if he falters move him to the mound.

 

He has the potential to be an ACE, and you'd not use him as a pitcher? I'm not sure I understand, but am open to reading more...

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#35 VikingGuy

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Posted 27 February 2017 - 10:58 AM

My board is exactly ONE deep.  Hunter Greene.  In what looks like a weak draft, he probably has the most upside.  And he has a "fall back" option in that if pitching doesn't seem to work out, they could move him to a position and at least get something out of the pick.  At the very least, he may develop into a closer.

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#36 twinsfanstreif

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Posted 27 February 2017 - 11:05 AM

Too early to figure out who the Twins should pick.

However. The last prep pitcher who was drafted 1-1 and signed, was a "cannot miss prospect" like Hunter Greene is. The immortal Brien Taylor, lefty mind you. (Great retrospective on that signing here. A must for any Greene fans.)

The competition that high schoolers are facing is about 5-10% (at best) of what College pitchers are facing (and this assumes that 1 of their opponents will make it as a starter in a College squad, which is not really true.) And if one has a 98 mph fastball as their only good pitch, he can fool a lot of high school kids....


Counter point, This is also the same line of thinking that had 5 teams drafting College pitchers over Kershaw in 2006, only 1 of which turned into a good pitcher (as a reliever mind you) in Andrew Miller. Also in that draft multiple teams passed on Lincecum because he was small and was destined for the pen, kinda like Bukauskas. The last few guys I remember having this conversation about were Jameson Tallion, Dylan Bundy, and Lucus Giolito. In those cases the 1st two have made it to the majors and pitched quite well and Giolito is one of the best prospects in the minors. Aiken was obviously another guy who was talked about like this but no one could've predicted his circumstances and he could still end up being good

#37 nicksaviking

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Posted 27 February 2017 - 11:09 AM

 

I would never let my kid go to a college program if he would be a top HS pitcher/1st/2nd round pick. Most of the coaches don't care about the athletes at all. 

 

That's the feeling I get, though to be fair, they probably do actually care about the players and do want them to have success, it would be hard to get into coaching if you don't have at least some interest in young people. They just seem to care about their job security much, much more. Unreasonably too considering college baseball coaches don't get fired nearly as much as their counterparts in the higher profile football and basketball ranks.

 

I'd bet they justify it to themselves because the pitcher says he wants to go out there for another inning, they then conveniently forget that athletes, and young men in general, have a tendency to have low impulse control and a vision only of the here-and-now and these young men need an adult with a big picture view to reign in their recklessness.

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#38 laloesch

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Posted 27 February 2017 - 11:29 AM

Greene is whom i'm gunning for.  I realize it's VERY early but if he fails to pan out as a starting pitcher he could always be groomed into a shortstop.  Is this a weak starting draft?  


#39 twinsfanstreif

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Posted 27 February 2017 - 11:41 AM

My board is exactly ONE deep. Hunter Greene. In what looks like a weak draft, he probably has the most upside. And he has a "fall back" option in that if pitching doesn't seem to work out, they could move him to a position and at least get something out of the pick. At the very least, he may develop into a closer.


This is not a "weak" draft by any means. I think it's actually much stronger than the last 2 years, especially pitching wise. Think about it, in 2015 Dillon Tate was the first pitcher taken and he was a college closer. Last year was one of the worst college classes I can remember and the #1 pick of Moniak is the definition of "meh." I haven't researched the depth in this class but at least the top 15 guys seem to be fairly solid. Yeah, maybe there's not a Bryce Harper but here's a news flash, there rarely is

#40 nicksaviking

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Posted 27 February 2017 - 11:45 AM

 

 

When I did my fall "ask-around" (before the Twins clinched the #1 spot), one scout told me he'd take Wright first overall. 

 

Was that before or after the Falvey and Lavine hiring and the Johnson & Johnson scouting director switch?

 

Just wondering because Wright looks more like a vintage Terry Ryan kind of pitcher. On the other hand Deron Johnson lately seemed to go the other way and take the bigger FB/higher ceiling arms.




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