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Twins Interested in Jose Bautista?

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#141 HitInAPinch

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Posted 11 January 2017 - 04:22 PM

 

So we give up our high second round pick, a spot for Vargas or Rosario, and a bunch of money so we can do what exactly?

 

Win less than a handful of games more than we would have?  Continue a strong tradition of terrible defenses behind our terrible pitchers?  Hope that we can turn him into a prospect good enough to offset all the investments?

 

Where is the upside exactly?

Protection in the lineup for Dozier?

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#142 HitInAPinch

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Posted 11 January 2017 - 04:35 PM

 

Per LaVelle... calm down on the Bautista rumors... 

 

 

 

Per Doogie - right now on 1500 ESPN... the Twins haven't had a meaningful discussion with Bautista's people, and probably won't. 

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#143 jimmer

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Posted 11 January 2017 - 04:40 PM

 

 

 

Also, and I'm sure you know this too, batter v. pitcher is romanticized and overblown. Certainly there are epic at bats that happen but it's typically batter v. the other team's entire defense. Much of what we think of as "pitching" is really defense. Sure, the best pitchers induce a lot of weak infield grounders, but that's little consolation if you have someone out there with the yips.  

 

I think I kind of addressed this quibble later in the post when I wrote, 'Pitcher against batter, batter against pitcher, fielder on his own fielding a ball, etc.'  But I think the one on one battle of pitcher throwing the ball trying to get the batter out is very much a huge battle (which of course, the defense is involved in once the ball is put in play (or IF the ball is put in play).

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#144 spycake

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Posted 11 January 2017 - 04:45 PM

But what if it's not really a 2nd rounder? What if it's top a 15ish HS kid who's agreeing to be picked by the Twins because they can pay him more than the other teams in the middle of the 1st round?


Even if they forfeited one pick, they'd still have another pick at virtually the same spot, thanks to the competitive balance lottery. And they'd still have a larger draft pool than anyone else.

They could probably still do something interesting with it, but I suspect there are diminishing returns on your strategy with an additional second round pick. In the McCullers at 41 draft, the Astros third pick wasn't until 61.
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#145 Doomtints

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Posted 11 January 2017 - 04:50 PM

T-Minus 48 hours until epic Bautista deal!  

 

 

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#146 Mike Sixel

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Posted 11 January 2017 - 04:59 PM

Even if they forfeited one pick, they'd still have another pick at virtually the same spot, thanks to the competitive balance lottery. And they'd still have a larger draft pool than anyone else.

They could probably still do something interesting with it, but I suspect there are diminishing returns on your strategy with an additional second round pick. In the McCullers at 41 draft, the Astros third pick wasn't until 61.


And they had more money to use....

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#147 DaveW

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Posted 11 January 2017 - 06:54 PM

What's the likelihood he helps the Twins make the playoffs this year?

or that they trade him for a prospect better than they could draft?

75:1 odds if they get Bautista IMO
25%?

Anyways, spending 20 million or so on a guy with the sole idea of potentially trading him for a prospect or two at the deadline is kinda pointless. Much better uses of money IMO
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#148 jokin

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Posted 12 January 2017 - 02:16 AM

 

Anyways, spending 20 million or so on a guy with the sole idea of potentially trading him for a prospect or two at the deadline is kinda pointless.                                                       Much better uses of money IMO

 

 

I agree that this isn't (likely) going to happen.

 

But-

 

Who is left and willing (and available, to spend $$$ on) that represents good use of the $10-$20M?

 

*(Morneau, Manship, Worley, Swarzack, AJ, Nathan and Jepsen are all available and could all be brought back for under that price, combined.... J/K)

 

Who are the best cost/benefit, risk/reward, signees (ala Ian Desmond 2016 and the Rangers getting that #1 pick back) looking for 1-year or 2-year deals?

 

If the Twins are really in on Bautista, wouldn't Trumbo make more sense?

 

Jason Hammel has no QO issues and would be good Phil Hughes/Berrios insurance at the backend of the rotation and possibly good trade bait by June/July... (NL pitcher, I know, I know).

 

That's about it on the "bigger" FA names vis a vis the Twins' price range and fit (correct me if I've missed someone else)

 

Would Neftali Feliz sign a short-term deal if the Twins paid a slight premium?

 

They just missed out on Santiago Casilla- Oakland got him as a high-potential flip candidate- would have been a good get at a bargain price (2/$11M).

 

It seems like signing one or all of: Sergio Romo (eye-popping career K/BB of 5.6- among RPs- better than Kenley Jansen and just under Mariano Rivera), Boone Logan (LOOGY extraordinaire) and Fernando Salas (came up with Cards org and plenty of playoff team exp.) on such a deal would be relatively cheap and very utilitarian, and if any repeats his recent success in 2017, a wonderfully possible trading chip come July.

 

Feldman- (knows how to play the sign-and-flip game)

 

Hundley- (upgrade in the catching corps.... RH bat complements Castro's LH bat... very flippable when someone's catcher goes on the DL, good temporary landing place- with Garver waiting in the wings)

 

Chris Carter- will likely come inexpensively and on a one-year deal... besides, signing him will serve to help Twins fans see in real time what might have been with ABW...

 

Edited by jokin, 12 January 2017 - 03:12 AM.

 

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#149 KirbyDome89

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Posted 12 January 2017 - 03:40 AM

 

Meh, possibly. Prospects are voodoo at the best of times and there will never be a shortage of baseball people willing to sell potential for the chance to win now.

 If prospects are voodoo at best then why pay $18+ million for one from a limited number of teams at the deadline when you could pick your own at 35 and pay only slot value or slightly above that? 

 

Not all prospects are created equal, but if they're that hellish to deal with why pay Bautista all that money, assume the risk that he's going to produce and not continue to slide, and find a trade partner that is willing to give up a prospect perceived to be better than what was available for the competitive balance pick? That seems like a lot just to land another voodoo prospect.

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#150 spycake

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Posted 12 January 2017 - 08:01 AM

 

 If prospects are voodoo at best then why pay $18+ million for one from a limited number of teams at the deadline when you could pick your own at 35 and pay only slot value or slightly above that? 

 

Not all prospects are created equal, but if they're that hellish to deal with why pay Bautista all that money, assume the risk that he's going to produce and not continue to slide, and find a trade partner that is willing to give up a prospect perceived to be better than what was available for the competitive balance pick? That seems like a lot just to land another voodoo prospect.

This is not necessarily an endorsement of signing Bautista, particularly at his current asking price, but a prospect acquired in July trade would probably be less "voodoo" than one drafted in June -- he would already have pro experience, closer to the majors, etc.  There's also the chance that they could acquire multiple pieces for Bautista in July, as opposed to one pick in the draft.  Even if they're not top prospects, I could see an effective Bautista fetching some interesting packages in July.

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#151 Mike Sixel

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Posted 12 January 2017 - 08:38 AM

 

This is not necessarily an endorsement of signing Bautista, particularly at his current asking price, but a prospect acquired in July trade would probably be less "voodoo" than one drafted in June -- he would already have pro experience, closer to the majors, etc.  There's also the chance that they could acquire multiple pieces for Bautista in July, as opposed to one pick in the draft.  Even if they're not top prospects, I could see an effective Bautista fetching some interesting packages in July.

 

based on 1.4 WAR (or whatever) players who can't field and are declining having fetched a lot the last few years?

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#152 spycake

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Posted 12 January 2017 - 09:04 AM

based on 1.4 WAR (or whatever) players who can't field and are declining having fetched a lot the last few years?


Obviously they would be placing a bet on a bounce back. Last year was basically the first time in ~7 years that Bautista fell short of a ~5 bWAR full season pace, so it wouldn't be that crazy of a bet. Player performance trends aren't always straight linear.
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#153 Mike Sixel

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Posted 12 January 2017 - 09:09 AM

 

Obviously they would be placing a bet on a bounce back. Last year was basically the first time in ~7 years that Bautista fell short of a ~5 bWAR full season pace, so it wouldn't be that crazy of a bet. Player performance trends aren't always straight linear.

 

And that bet is a good bet? He's a bat only player at this point. 

 

Bautista on a bounce back helping the Twins contend, forfeighted 2nd round pick and $2MM in signing money for the draft

Bautista on a bounce back, not helping the Twins contend, and traded for something useful, forfeighted 2nd round pick and $2MM in signing money for the draft

No Bautista, a 2nd round pick, and the $2MM in pool money

 

Which of those seems like the best bet for a 59 win team with a mediocre (or worse) farm system (which is how they will rate when stack ranked by BA, Sickels, Fangrapsh, KLAW, MLB)?

 

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#154 Doomtints

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Posted 12 January 2017 - 09:09 AM

I don't see Bautista going for $20M.  Max would be $15M, but I'm guessing he signs in the $10M-$12M range unless a bottom feeder team wants to pay the $15M.

 

Maybe someone gives him $20M for two years, but I doubt that too.

Edited by Doomtints, 12 January 2017 - 09:10 AM.


#155 Steve Lein

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Posted 12 January 2017 - 09:31 AM

He probably doesn't sign until June, just like Morales. 

 

I certainly would get in on the bidding then. Though so would everybody else.

Scouting Report: Power: 30, Hitting: 50, Arm: 60, Defense: 40, Speed: 40. "Line drive swing and shows good contact and on-base abilities. Double's power at his peak. Strong arm from 2B or the OF, stiff hands. Not a fast runner, but above average instincts on the bases. Skinny body doesn't look the part, but can sneak up on you. ACL surgery sapped much of his athleticism." (Probably)


#156 gunnarthor

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Posted 12 January 2017 - 09:34 AM

 

And that bet is a good bet? He's a bat only player at this point. 

 

Bautista on a bounce back helping the Twins contend, forfeighted 2nd round pick and $2MM in signing money for the draft

Bautista on a bounce back, not helping the Twins contend, and traded for something useful, forfeighted 2nd round pick and $2MM in signing money for the draft

No Bautista, a 2nd round pick, and the $2MM in pool money

 

Which of those seems like the best bet for a 59 win team with a mediocre (or worse) farm system (which is how they will rate when stack ranked by BA, Sickels, Fangrapsh, KLAW, MLB)?

I'd bet on bounceback actually.  He'll hit enough to be worth a second round return at the deadline.  I don't think that's particularly risky.  That said, I do think there is some logic in keeping all three picks in the first 38 (or whatever) because maybe the Twins could get something like the #3 college pitcher at 1 and get a two more top 15 players to drop.  I like that idea, too.  But I'm not going to complain either way.  I'm more optimistic about this team than most.  I think they have the core of a very good offense but could use a big improvement at 1b/DH which could be internal (bounceback season from Mauer, break out from Park) or external (Bautista).  

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#157 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 12 January 2017 - 09:37 AM

While we may be confident Bautista will hit enough to net a second round pick equivalent, let's not forget that will cost the Twins at least $10m with a peak of $15m-ish if the receiving team needs cash back to make a deal work.

 

It could cost the Twins over 10% of their payroll to pick up a guy just in hopes he'll be good enough to flip for the equivalent of a draft slot they already have banked.

 

That's a terrible risk for something with so little upside (the upside being that if Bautista goes bananas, he'll net more than that second round pick).

 

I'd love to have Bautista on the team but it simply doesn't make much sense on a team trying to figure out what they have in Sano, Park, Vargas, and Mauer.

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#158 gunnarthor

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Posted 12 January 2017 - 09:42 AM

 

While we may be confident Bautista will hit enough to net a second round pick equivalent, let's not forget that will cost the Twins at least $10m with a peak of $15m-ish if the receiving team needs cash back to make a deal work.

 

It could cost the Twins over 10% of their payroll to pick up a guy just in hopes he'll be good enough to flip for the equivalent of a draft slot they already have banked.

 

That's a terrible risk for something with so little upside (the upside being that if Bautista goes bananas, he'll net more than that second round pick).

 

I'd love to have Bautista on the team but it simply doesn't make much sense on a team trying to figure out what they have in Sano, Park, Vargas, and Mauer.

Not sure your numbers are right.  The Twins aren't going to sign him at a 1/20 deal.  They'd get him at something like 1/10 or 1/12 and half that would be paid by the receiving team in a trade (unless the Twins eat salary to get a better prospect).  

 

There are a lot of reasons to not do the deal but payroll isn't one of them.

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#159 alskntwnsfn

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Posted 12 January 2017 - 09:45 AM

 

Bautista is only 6 behind Mauer for career Target Field HR

This 100x. Someone probably already posted it but Bautista has hit 349/429/895 at Target Field in 21 games. We can hope our offense will develop into a playoff level offense, or sign him for 3 years and virtually guarantee it. 


#160 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 12 January 2017 - 09:48 AM

 

Not sure your numbers are right.  The Twins aren't going to sign him at a 1/20 deal.  They'd get him at something like 1/10 or 1/12 and half that would be paid by the receiving team in a trade (unless the Twins eat salary to get a better prospect).  

 

There are a lot of reasons to not do the deal but payroll isn't one of them.

I was going from a line of a $15m deal but $10m-12m has similar issues.

 

First, few players are traded on July 1st, which is the rough halfway point of the season. The Twins would likely be on the hook for 60-67% of Bautista's salary, not 50%.

 

Going from a baseline of $12m, that's still a lot of money. If the Twins want to open up the trade partners to all teams, they may need to be open to adding cash to the deal and cash included usually doesn't translate to prospect worth at a 1:1 ratio.

 

The best case scenario is that Bautista goes into the break mashing and the Twins net a top 50-75 prospect, a better prospect than what they would have chosen with the second round pick, though not enormously better. Just... Better. A more sure thing.

 

The worst case scenario is that Bautista is injured/bad and worth nothing. The Twins burn $12m and the first second round pick of the draft.

 

I don't see much upside there and I see a lot of downside. Bautista is going into his age 36 season. He's pretty old in baseball terms.

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