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Article: Running Down The Hall (Of Fame Ballot)

barry bonds jeff bagwell tim raines ivan rodriguez roger clemens
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#101 biggentleben

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Posted 19 January 2017 - 09:54 PM

 

I understand the position on Jones. He never had an amazing year, but his 96-03 stretch is really impressive, with the 07, 08 coda. He played 18 seasons and never dipped below 1.9 WAR, and it was only his last 3 that he was below 3. That is a really impressive career.

Griffey had an amazing 12 year run, then did very little else.

 

Um. How do you figure never having an amazing year? In '99, he hit .319/.441/.633 with 41 doubles, 45 home runs, and 25 stolen bases (versus just 3 caught stealing), along with posting a 126/94 BB/K rate. He won the MVP in a near-runaway.

 

He hit at least 20 home runs for 14 straight seasons, and in that run, he also walked more than he struck out and posted a .310/.407/.548 line. That's a crazy long peak before injuries really took their toll. To finish that run, at 36, he fought through two trips to the DL to post a .364/.470/.574 season, win the batting title and have a 90/61 BB/K ratio at 36 years old.

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#102 TheLeviathan

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Posted 19 January 2017 - 10:00 PM

 

Wow. I can't support that take whatsoever. 

 

Maybe we're lost in symantics, but I don't think my stance is all that different than the post you made relative to Griffey.  Perhaps we differ a bit on where he is in the pantheon, but my point was that I wouldn't consider Jones anywhere near the same echelon as Griffey.  And I'd say he's a considerable distance away from anyone in that kind of company.

 

He's a hall of famer for sure, but I do feel like he sometimes gets pimped a bit heavier than I'm comfortable for a guy who basically spent his entire career between good and damn good.  But never even approaching "wow!" in my book.

 

He comps fairly well to Adrian Beltre and I think of Beltre in much the same way.

Edited by TheLeviathan, 19 January 2017 - 10:03 PM.


#103 drjim

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Posted 19 January 2017 - 10:07 PM

Um. How do you figure never having an amazing year? In '99, he hit .319/.441/.633 with 41 doubles, 45 home runs, and 25 stolen bases (versus just 3 caught stealing), along with posting a 126/94 BB/K rate. He won the MVP in a near-runaway.

He hit at least 20 home runs for 14 straight seasons, and in that run, he also walked more than he struck out and posted a .310/.407/.548 line. That's a crazy long peak before injuries really took their toll. To finish that run, at 36, he fought through two trips to the DL to post a .364/.470/.574 season, win the batting title and have a 90/61 BB/K ratio at 36 years old.


Even though I'm not a huge WAR guy, I think historical perspective is a decent, directional, contextual use of the stat.

He never exceeded 7.3 (his number in 99). Very, very good season, but doesn't strike me as amazing in context of the time.

(And, to be clear, this is not a reference to PEDs, but the watering down of pitching in context of expansion. Raw numbers are not as valuable).

I think the genius of Jones, as you allude to, is the long stretch of really good play.
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#104 drjim

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Posted 19 January 2017 - 10:10 PM

Maybe we're lost in symantics, but I don't think my stance is all that different than the post you made relative to Griffey. Perhaps we differ a bit on where he is in the pantheon, but my point was that I wouldn't consider Jones anywhere near the same echelon as Griffey. And I'd say he's a considerable distance away from anyone in that kind of company.

He's a hall of famer for sure, but I do feel like he sometimes gets pimped a bit heavier than I'm comfortable for a guy who basically spent his entire career between good and damn good. But never even approaching "wow!" in my book.

He comps fairly well to Adrian Beltre and I think of Beltre in much the same way.


They are different types of hitters and the career arcs are different, but for the totality of a career, Beltre is a very interesting comp.
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#105 biggentleben

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Posted 19 January 2017 - 10:11 PM

 

Even though I'm not a huge WAR guy, I think historical perspective is a decent, directional, contextual use of the stat.

He never exceeded 7.3 (his number in 99). Very, very good season, but doesn't strike me as amazing in context of the time.

(And, to be clear, this is not a reference to PEDs, but the watering down of pitching in context of expansion. Raw numbers are not as valuable).

I think the genius of Jones, as you allude to, is the long stretch of really good play.

 

Part of the WAR argument there is also that he gets very little credit via metrics for what he did defensively. The "chopper to Chipper" was a call that was made incredibly often in Atlanta, and his ability to scoop barehanded coming in on a ball and throw with accuracy is something that big league third basemen now talk about emulating from him. However, he played behind guys like Glavine and Maddux, which meant that most of the work was done up the middle for infielders, and he really didn't get a ton of work to display his defensive ability.

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#106 TheLeviathan

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Posted 19 January 2017 - 10:12 PM

 

They are different types of hitters and the career arcs are different, but for the totality of a career, Beltre is a very interesting comp.

 

The gap in defensive ability is also stark, but if you like WAR they are very close.


#107 biggentleben

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Posted 19 January 2017 - 10:12 PM

 

They are different types of hitters and the career arcs are different, but for the totality of a career, Beltre is a very interesting comp.

 

And that could be part of the issue. I think Beltre is a no-crap, no-doubt HOFer right now, let alone with 2-3 more years added on.

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#108 biggentleben

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Posted 19 January 2017 - 10:14 PM

Eddie Mathews has said that if he were building a "greatest Braves" list, he'd make Chipper the 3B every single day and not think twice, stating that Chipper was the much better player. I think that does say a lot (and is rare that you have two elite all-time guys at a position that rare in Cooperstown both in franchise history).

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#109 TheLeviathan

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Posted 19 January 2017 - 10:18 PM

 

And that could be part of the issue. I think Beltre is a no-crap, no-doubt HOFer right now, let alone with 2-3 more years added on.

 

Absolutely and I feel the same about Jones.  But greatness has different echelons, my beef with Jones is that I often think he gets elevated beyond what he's due.  I've heard much more glowing talk over the years about him than I have about Beltre.  And I consider the two on the same level.


#110 drjim

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Posted 19 January 2017 - 10:18 PM

And that could be part of the issue. I think Beltre is a no-crap, no-doubt HOFer right now, let alone with 2-3 more years added on.


I think they are both no doubt, should be easy first ballot, guys too.

It was interesting to consider the Griffey vs Jones point. I'll agree with you all and say Griffey too, but it's not an absurd statement to consider Jones.
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#111 jimmer

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Posted 19 January 2017 - 11:39 PM

Beltre wRC+ 115, OPS+ 116, OPS.818.Traditional slash line:.286/.338/.480
Chipper wRC+ 141, OPS+ 141, OPS .930. Traditional slash line: .303/.401/.529

Offensively, Beltre isn't close. But defense should and does count. Chipper about average (maybe slightly below, but not too much below). Beltre, on the other hand, AWESOME on D!

And though bWAR has Beltre barely above Chipper, fWAR actually has Chipper higher than Beltre (barely) though I doubt it ends up that way when it's all said and done.

P.S.Chipper is also 3rd in HRs for 3Bs.


#112 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 20 January 2017 - 08:38 AM

It's absolute madness that Hoffman wasn't a first ballot guy.

 

The Hall of Fame continues to make no sense.


#113 jimmer

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Posted 20 January 2017 - 08:44 AM

 

It's absolute madness that Hoffman wasn't a first ballot guy.

 

The Hall of Fame continues to make no sense.

Because saves leader?

Edited by jimmer, 20 January 2017 - 08:49 AM.


#114 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 20 January 2017 - 08:53 AM

 

Because saves leader?

Pretty much, yeah. The guy ended his career with a 141 ERA+, 25.8 K%, 7.0 BB%, .83 HR/9, and .263 BABIP.

 

Oh, and he made 47 or more appearances 17 out of 18 years he pitched in baseball.

 

The dude was dominant, consistent, and healthy.


#115 gunnarthor

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Posted 20 January 2017 - 10:54 AM

I do think if we are going to let relievers into the HOF (and it looks like we are) Hoffman should be there.  I'm not sure how much I like putting relievers into the HOF though.  Obviously, Jack Morris and Jim Kaat and Kevin Brown were better pitchers than Hoffman or Rivera.  Those two were arguably better at their roles but I'm not sure they were better pitchers (in fact, I'm sure they weren't).  But that ship has sailed.  




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