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#141 kab21

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Posted 27 December 2016 - 08:55 AM

 

Honestly if their talent identification and development was that superior you would think it would be in their best interest to keep their prospects. Good players on rookie contracts would be a huge advantage. 

You really didn't look at the trade list that I posted. They had marginal prospects come up and fill holes out of what was considered an awful system. They got great value for other promising but not highly ranked prospects and traded them for very good MLB players.

Right now you are fixated how the weak farm system is going to doom them. They have shown that they can trade prospects from a terrible farm system to fill on the MLB team. That has been my entire point all along. For the Tigers it isn't about having a strong young core. It is about taking a Fernando Romero or a Lewin Diaz type and trading him for a solid (let's say 2.5 WAR) OF'er with 2-3 years left on his contract. These kinds of trades are still possible with a universally accepted depleted farm system. They just keep finding ways to get value out of terrible farm system. Other teams haven't been able to do that. That is the credit that we are giving them and why some aren't so eager to write them off yet.

Is 2016 2017 2018 the year that a good pitching prospect is truly blocked by 5 good pitchers in the starting rotation? 

Offseason (noun) - a time to propose trades assuming opposing GM's can't do the same basic analysis


#142 biggentleben

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Posted 27 December 2016 - 12:12 PM

 

If they've kept so many and they're also great at developing them then why hasn't there been an influx of young players on the MLB team?

 

It has gone from they traded away talented prospects for proven MLB players, to the farm was never that great, to they're excellent at talent development and they've kept plenty of young players. It can't be all three. I think Detroit did trade away talented prospects; Rick Porcello, Jair Jurrjens, Drew Smyly, and Andrew Miller are just some of those players. What I'm skeptical of is the notion that Detroit is superior to other teams in drafting and developing. If that were the case why would they not use that to their advantage and build a team full of young talent on cheap contracts? Why constantly overpay for FAs if you're that capable? It makes no sense to me that you state they have such an advantage in that area, but then assert they can't miss any of the prospects they've traded. 

 

I agree, if you don't have a spot for a prospect you trade that prospect. However, the question becomes did they not have a spot for a prospect because a FA signing was in place already, or did they sign a FA because there wasn't a prospect to take that spot? 

 

They used Andrew Miller to acquire Miguel Cabrera. They make that trade every day and twice on Sundays, similarly with Smyly for Price.

 

The team develops players for the purpose of trading or playing them. You can believe it or not, but they have had a tremendous track record with guys from other organizations that they acquired through trade. They have been mislabeled as signing so many guys via free agency, but be real about where their players have come from...

 

Current "big contract"/starting guys:

Trade - Miguel Cabrera, Ian Kinsler, Anibal Sanchez, Francisco Rodriguez, Jose Iglesias, Shane Greene, Anthony Gose, Daniel Norris, Matt Boyd, Michael Fulmer, JaCoby Jones

Drafted/Developed - Justin Verlander, Nick Castellanos, James McCann, Steven Moya

FA Signing (year) - Justin Upton (2015-2016), Victor Martinez (2010-2011), Jordan Zimmermann (2015-2016), J.D. Martinez (2013-2014), Mike Pelfrey (2015-2016), Mark Lowe (2015-2016)

 

So, on the current roster, all but two FA signings on the team is from one offseason.

 

Previous players that were "impact" players:

David Price - Trade

Yoenis Cespedes - Trade

Rajai Davis - FA (2013-2014)

Alfredo Simon - Trade

Joakim Soria - Trade

Cameron Maybin - Trade

Austin Jackson - Trade

Torii Hunter - FA (2012-2013)

Max Scherzer - Trade

Rick Porcello - Draft/Develop

Drew Smyly - Draft/Develop

Joe Nathan - FA (2013-2014)

Joba Chamberlain - FA (2013-2014)

Phil Coke - Trade

Robbie Ray - Trade

Prince Fielder - FA (2011-2012)

Omar Infante - Draft/Develop

Jhonny Peralta - Trade

Doug Fister - Trade

Joaquin Benoit - FA (2010-2011)

Jose Valverde - FA (2009-2010)

 

So, outside of a handful of free agents, the majority of big guys were acquired via trade, and that's how those prospects were used.

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#143 biggentleben

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Posted 27 December 2016 - 12:20 PM

Because I have a feeling that quote hasn't been looked up, I'll post it...

 

One rival scout told me about the Tigers’ Kyle Funkhouser, “I was watching the draft board fall, and I just had a sinking feeling because I knew the Tigers would get him, and when they got him, he’d either turn into an ace for them, or he’d end up becoming the trade chip that brought them in Clayton Kershaw or some ridiculous trade piece.”

 

 

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#144 KirbyDome89

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Posted 28 December 2016 - 12:07 AM

 

They used Andrew Miller to acquire Miguel Cabrera. They make that trade every day and twice on Sundays, similarly with Smyly for Price.

 

The team develops players for the purpose of trading or playing them. You can believe it or not, but they have had a tremendous track record with guys from other organizations that they acquired through trade. They have been mislabeled as signing so many guys via free agency, but be real about where their players have come from...

 

Current "big contract"/starting guys:

Trade - Miguel Cabrera, Ian Kinsler, Anibal Sanchez, Francisco Rodriguez, Jose Iglesias, Shane Greene, Anthony Gose, Daniel Norris, Matt Boyd, Michael Fulmer, JaCoby Jones

Drafted/Developed - Justin Verlander, Nick Castellanos, James McCann, Steven Moya

FA Signing (year) - Justin Upton (2015-2016), Victor Martinez (2010-2011), Jordan Zimmermann (2015-2016), J.D. Martinez (2013-2014), Mike Pelfrey (2015-2016), Mark Lowe (2015-2016)

 

So, on the current roster, all but two FA signings on the team is from one offseason.

 

Previous players that were "impact" players:

David Price - Trade

Yoenis Cespedes - Trade

Rajai Davis - FA (2013-2014)

Alfredo Simon - Trade

Joakim Soria - Trade

Cameron Maybin - Trade

Austin Jackson - Trade

Torii Hunter - FA (2012-2013)

Max Scherzer - Trade

Rick Porcello - Draft/Develop

Drew Smyly - Draft/Develop

Joe Nathan - FA (2013-2014)

Joba Chamberlain - FA (2013-2014)

Phil Coke - Trade

Robbie Ray - Trade

Prince Fielder - FA (2011-2012)

Omar Infante - Draft/Develop

Jhonny Peralta - Trade

Doug Fister - Trade

Joaquin Benoit - FA (2010-2011)

Jose Valverde - FA (2009-2010)

 

So, outside of a handful of free agents, the majority of big guys were acquired via trade, and that's how those prospects were used.

I'm not really sure what the argument is that you're making. First you said they've kept a lot of their talented young players. Now, you're going on about how many they've traded away. I've been saying this entire time that they've sacrificed prospects for FAs and trades. You seem to be reinforcing that....so we agree?

 

You also didn't address the question I asked. If Detroit is so much better at finding and developing talent, why would they be so eager to let it go? If you can develop elite young talent at the rate you suggest, and have them on rookie contracts why would the Tigers be interested in trading them for older, more expensive players? That makes 0 sense...

 

I think a much more likely scenario is that they did have talent in the minors, but the system has been thinned out due to trades and losing picks and as a result they're consistently rated as one of the worst farms in baseball. They very well may be one of the better teams at recognizing talent, and that would explain how they've been able to pull off some of those trades, but I think the degree to which you think they have an advantage is exaggerated. I really doubt that a smart team like Detroit could have such an edge but continually choose to pay more. 

 

They're mislabeled? 

 

Magglio Ordonez

Ivan Rodriguez

Johnny Damon

Kenny Rogers

Victor Martinez

Prince Fielder

Torii Hunter

Joaquin Benoit

JD Martinez

Justin Upton

Jordan Zimmerman

 

These guys seem like pretty "real," players to me.....

 

 


#145 KirbyDome89

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Posted 28 December 2016 - 02:01 AM

 

You really didn't look at the trade list that I posted. They had marginal prospects come up and fill holes out of what was considered an awful system. They got great value for other promising but not highly ranked prospects and traded them for very good MLB players.

Right now you are fixated how the weak farm system is going to doom them. They have shown that they can trade prospects from a terrible farm system to fill on the MLB team. That has been my entire point all along. For the Tigers it isn't about having a strong young core. It is about taking a Fernando Romero or a Lewin Diaz type and trading him for a solid (let's say 2.5 WAR) OF'er with 2-3 years left on his contract. These kinds of trades are still possible with a universally accepted depleted farm system. They just keep finding ways to get value out of terrible farm system. Other teams haven't been able to do that. That is the credit that we are giving them and why some aren't so eager to write them off yet.

You must've forgotten the comment otherwise you would know I read it. Those 4 were/are fine players. Castellanos was good last year, Avila had a couple nice years, but if Ryan Raburn and James McCann are two of the better players you can point to them calling up over the last 10 years I don't see reason to applaud. That to me says more about a lack of talent than development acumen. I realize they brought in value via trades, that was never in dispute. 

 

At some point you need to have that core. Even the Tigers had players that they built around. Bringing in a solid 2.5 WAR OF'er is nice, and they did a great job of bringing those players in, but those are support players. The Tigers won massively in the Scherzer and Cabrera trades and that laid the foundation for the 2011-2014 playoff run. There is a huge difference between squeezing value out of a depleted farm system and trading for a 1st ballot HOFer and a two time Cy Young winner. Credit to Detroit for snagging those guys but if the argument is that they don't need to build because they can continue to make those kinds of trades I'm going to disagree. 


#146 Oldgoat_MN

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Posted 28 December 2016 - 03:58 AM

 

...

The team develops players for the purpose of trading or playing them. 

...

This little nugget right here.

Terry Ryan was said to have initiated very few calls. He wanted the other GM to be the one 'wanting' a trade. Perhaps he felt that put him in a position of strength.

 

Detroit has traded away prospects for players they wanted.

 

When I read this line my immediate thought was, "The Twins develop prospects to either play them or have them stop playing pro baseball".

 

It is seldom that I recall the Twins ever trading someone who is in AA or lower. They don't ask another team to gamble, they just ride their prospects until they either play or fail to make the MLB roster some day.

 

Great line in that post, biggentleben. It will be interesting to see if the Twins begin to be more aggressive with trades in general.

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#147 kab21

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Posted 28 December 2016 - 08:04 AM

 

You must've forgotten the comment otherwise you would know I read it. Those 4 were/are fine players. Castellanos was good last year, Avila had a couple nice years, but if Ryan Raburn and James McCann are two of the better players you can point to them calling up over the last 10 years I don't see reason to applaud. That to me says more about a lack of talent than development acumen. I realize they brought in value via trades, that was never in dispute. 

 

At some point you need to have that core. Even the Tigers had players that they built around. Bringing in a solid 2.5 WAR OF'er is nice, and they did a great job of bringing those players in, but those are support players. The Tigers won massively in the Scherzer and Cabrera trades and that laid the foundation for the 2011-2014 playoff run. There is a huge difference between squeezing value out of a depleted farm system and trading for a 1st ballot HOFer and a two time Cy Young winner. Credit to Detroit for snagging those guys but if the argument is that they don't need to build because they can continue to make those kinds of trades I'm going to disagree. 

I am not sure how you continue to miss the entire point. The entire point hasn't been about homegrown players making the team younger. They have used their terrible farm system to constantly trade for veterans that make their team better immediately. And they have done this many times with a farm system ranked almost last every year. They have zigged where the common sense direction is to zag.

If you are giving a lot of credit to the Tigers for their big trades that brought them a 1st ballot HOF'er and a 2 time Cy Young winner then you should be applauding the Red Sox trade of Sale since he is at the same level as Scherzer. 

Is 2016 2017 2018 the year that a good pitching prospect is truly blocked by 5 good pitchers in the starting rotation? 

Offseason (noun) - a time to propose trades assuming opposing GM's can't do the same basic analysis


#148 biggentleben

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Posted 28 December 2016 - 08:21 AM

 

I'm not really sure what the argument is that you're making. First you said they've kept a lot of their talented young players. Now, you're going on about how many they've traded away. I've been saying this entire time that they've sacrificed prospects for FAs and trades. You seem to be reinforcing that....so we agree?

 

You also didn't address the question I asked. If Detroit is so much better at finding and developing talent, why would they be so eager to let it go? If you can develop elite young talent at the rate you suggest, and have them on rookie contracts why would the Tigers be interested in trading them for older, more expensive players? That makes 0 sense...

 

I think a much more likely scenario is that they did have talent in the minors, but the system has been thinned out due to trades and losing picks and as a result they're consistently rated as one of the worst farms in baseball. They very well may be one of the better teams at recognizing talent, and that would explain how they've been able to pull off some of those trades, but I think the degree to which you think they have an advantage is exaggerated. I really doubt that a smart team like Detroit could have such an edge but continually choose to pay more. 

 

They're mislabeled? 

 

Magglio Ordonez

Ivan Rodriguez

Johnny Damon

Kenny Rogers

Victor Martinez

Prince Fielder

Torii Hunter

Joaquin Benoit

JD Martinez

Justin Upton

Jordan Zimmerman

 

These guys seem like pretty "real," players to me.....

 

Using J.D. Martinez immediately negates your argument. He was only signed to a major league free agent contract because that was the way to get him over other teams only offering a minor league deal. He was cut and signed two days later by the Tigers. It was no "big money" sort of deal. Please be honest and real about your examples if you're heading down this road.

 

I also never once said they kept all their young players. I said they utilized them in their team or in trade and that the majority of their major acquisitions were via trade, which they clearly were if you look at that list. Free agents were very rare in their team structure.

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#149 biggentleben

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Posted 28 December 2016 - 08:36 AM

 

Credit to Detroit for snagging those guys but if the argument is that they don't need to build because they can continue to make those kinds of trades I'm going to disagree. 

 

Then you've somehow missed how they turned Rick Porcello into Victor Alcantara (via Gabe Speier, who was flipped for Cameron Maybin), Alex Wilson, Michael Fulmer, and Luis Cessna. That's a great trade already, let alone the future value they'll get from just Fulmer and Wilson.

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#150 KirbyDome89

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Posted 28 December 2016 - 12:33 PM

 

I am not sure how you continue to miss the entire point. The entire point hasn't been about homegrown players making the team younger. They have used their terrible farm system to constantly trade for veterans that make their team better immediately. And they have done this many times with a farm system ranked almost last every year. They have zigged where the common sense direction is to zag.

If you are giving a lot of credit to the Tigers for their big trades that brought them a 1st ballot HOF'er and a 2 time Cy Young winner then you should be applauding the Red Sox trade of Sale since he is at the same level as Scherzer. 

That farm system is terrible BECAUSE they constantly trade for veterans....The Tigers farm in 2007 wasn't the same as the 2017 version. Every trade and every forfeited pick adds up. By 2014 the headline players they gave up (Porcello, Smyly) in trades were already in MLB. In 15' prospects netted them Cameron Maybin (who was good), and in 16' they picked up Erick Aybar. Apart from the Maybin revival, those moves aren't the same type as the earlier trades that brought in guys like Cabrera, Gose, Anibal Sanchez, Johnny Peralta, Iglesias, Fister, ect... 

 

You're treating those 2 trades as if they're the same as flipping some prospects for a 2.5 WAR player. They stole Cabrera from Miami and Scherzer blew up into a Cy Young pitcher. Those type of trades are extremely rare and they definitely set them up for that playoff run. I'm not missing the point, I disagree with the notion that you can lump all their trades into the same category and say "they've done it before and were successful, they'll continue to do it." Banking on those types of trades isn't reliable. Its like looking at the Twins and thinking they'll find another Johan for Jared Camp. You need a base from which to build. 


#151 KirbyDome89

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Posted 28 December 2016 - 01:00 PM

 

Using J.D. Martinez immediately negates your argument. He was only signed to a major league free agent contract because that was the way to get him over other teams only offering a minor league deal. He was cut and signed two days later by the Tigers. It was no "big money" sort of deal. Please be honest and real about your examples if you're heading down this road.

 

I also never once said they kept all their young players. I said they utilized them in their team or in trade and that the majority of their major acquisitions were via trade, which they clearly were if you look at that list. Free agents were very rare in their team structure.

Whether he signs a minor or major league deal doesn't matter. He signed as a FA. That was the point of the list. There is nothing dishonest about including him in a list of FA signings, but pretending that list doesn't exist and trying to invalidate it because you don't like one of the players included just might be...

 

"They have kept many over the years." 

 

You didn't say that in reference to the amount of talented young players Detroit has?

 

You must have a different idea of what "very rare," means. 

 

 

 


#152 KirbyDome89

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Posted 28 December 2016 - 01:07 PM

 

Then you've somehow missed how they turned Rick Porcello into Victor Alcantara (via Gabe Speier, who was flipped for Cameron Maybin), Alex Wilson, Michael Fulmer, and Luis Cessna. That's a great trade already, let alone the future value they'll get from just Fulmer and Wilson.

That example isn't even comparable to the value they received in the deals I was talking about. Do you seriously think they can go out and make more trades similar to what brought Cabrera and Scherzer in? C'mon....I thought your whole thing was being honest and real. Again, if you argument is that they don't have to build because they'll steal another 1st Ballot HOFer and pick up another 2 time Cy Young winner before he blossoms then I'll strongly disagree.

 


#153 ashburyjohn

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Posted 28 December 2016 - 01:19 PM

I thought your whole thing was being honest and real.

Moderator's note: This really starts to cross a line, on the part of everyone who is taking this tack (recognizing that it was not this post which introduced the phrasing). Please be respectful when posting. One way to help stay on the safe side of the line is to avoid making it be about the other person at all. But, especially, don't ever imply intentional dishonesty.

 

Aside from that, are any new points being introduced? It may be time to put this tangent aside.

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#154 kab21

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Posted 28 December 2016 - 11:26 PM

 

That farm system is terrible BECAUSE they constantly trade for veterans....The Tigers farm in 2007 wasn't the same as the 2017 version. Every trade and every forfeited pick adds up. By 2014 the headline players they gave up (Porcello, Smyly) in trades were already in MLB. In 15' prospects netted them Cameron Maybin (who was good), and in 16' they picked up Erick Aybar. Apart from the Maybin revival, those moves aren't the same type as the earlier trades that brought in guys like Cabrera, Gose, Anibal Sanchez, Johnny Peralta, Iglesias, Fister, ect... 

 

You're treating those 2 trades as if they're the same as flipping some prospects for a 2.5 WAR player. They stole Cabrera from Miami and Scherzer blew up into a Cy Young pitcher. Those type of trades are extremely rare and they definitely set them up for that playoff run. I'm not missing the point, I disagree with the notion that you can lump all their trades into the same category and say "they've done it before and were successful, they'll continue to do it." Banking on those types of trades isn't reliable. Its like looking at the Twins and thinking they'll find another Johan for Jared Camp. You need a base from which to build. 

It is odd that you look at a long list of trades and then conclude that since they have only traded prospects for Maybin and Aybar in the last two years they won't be able to make similar trade to what they have done in the previous decade. And you somehow discount that both Porcello (a long time ago) and Smyly came out of the farm system even if they were in the MLB at the time. They have been able to use their farm system in an atypical manner to bolster their MLB team for a long time. Other teams wait for prospect to bust or make it at the MLB level and Detroit trades that uncertainty for real production.

 

They also didn't steal Cabrera from Miami. They paid a steep price (Maybin was the #6 prospect and Miller was highly ranked also) and it paid off. Not terribly unlike the Sale trade. They got the elite SP'er and Chicago got the great prospects and risk. Scherzer was also highly ranked and high upside prospect that was one year from the minors. They took a chance on the upside and it paid off. Not terribly different than picking up Norris.

Is 2016 2017 2018 the year that a good pitching prospect is truly blocked by 5 good pitchers in the starting rotation? 

Offseason (noun) - a time to propose trades assuming opposing GM's can't do the same basic analysis


#155 KirbyDome89

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Posted 29 December 2016 - 02:38 AM

 

It is odd that you look at a long list of trades and then conclude that since they have only traded prospects for Maybin and Aybar in the last two years they won't be able to make similar trade to what they have done in the previous decade. And you somehow discount that both Porcello (a long time ago) and Smyly came out of the farm system even if they were in the MLB at the time. They have been able to use their farm system in an atypical manner to bolster their MLB team for a long time. Other teams wait for prospect to bust or make it at the MLB level and Detroit trades that uncertainty for real production.

 

They also didn't steal Cabrera from Miami. They paid a steep price (Maybin was the #6 prospect and Miller was highly ranked also) and it paid off. Not terribly unlike the Sale trade. They got the elite SP'er and Chicago got the great prospects and risk. Scherzer was also highly ranked and high upside prospect that was one year from the minors. They took a chance on the upside and it paid off. Not terribly different than picking up Norris.

We've gone over where the farm stands, the fact that Porcello and Smyly were once a part of it is irrelevant to the point I was making about the trades....

 

Yes, I think that constantly trading prospects along with losing picks has weakened the farm system. Yes, I think that unloading prospects right now like they did to get Cabrera and Fister would be extremely difficult. Again, their current farm isn't the same as 2007, so I'm not subscribing to the "they did it already, they'll just continue to do it," logic. Whats odd is that to bring in a player like Cespedes or Price the headline piece in the deals was a young MLB player rather than a prospect. Detroit was detached from their prospects as previous trades suggest; so why not flip more of them for those players rather than give up a starting pitcher? A trade that brought in MLB talent was absolutely what they needed the last couple years, so why didn't it happen? If they're that capable, why weren't they making the same trades the past few years that they were previously. The case has already been made that they have no trouble using a bad farm system to return MLB talent so why give up the starters; unless their farm really is that weak or/and they're moving in a different direction as evidenced by comments the GM made and the fact they're shopping players. 

 

Stop acting like there is no risk associated for the team bringing on the MLB player. You might have a better idea of what you're getting but there is no guarantee of production from the players you acquire on either side.  

 

Getting a generational talent in a trade is a steal. If Sale maintains his current pace for another 7 seasons he'll match Cabrera in WAR. Scherzer had started almost 40 games over 2 seasons when they traded for him. He wasn't a prospect, and the trade obviously paid off. Norris hasn't even pitched a full season for the Tigers yet. I would hold off on both comparisons....Its one thing to say they're following the same blueprint, its another to expect they'll get similar results. 

Edited by KirbyDome89, 29 December 2016 - 03:09 AM.


#156 Carole Keller

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Posted 29 December 2016 - 12:43 PM

You know, locking up a thread shouldn't be the solution to disagreement. It's actually kind of sad if that is the solution. Why not just shrug, agree to disagree, and just end your part in the discussion without saying anything further and walk away. This need to prove another wrong or prove yourself right or keep arguing until others agree with you or so you can have the last word just isn't constructive. Yeah, I get it, you passionately believe you are right. So what? The other believes that, too.

But making your arguments personal toward another is not going to fly. And if anyone is wondering ... a few posts and/or comments were removed that would make my rant make sense.
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