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Mackey: Good Chance Twins Are Punting 2013

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#1 John Bonnes

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 10:12 PM

http://www.1500espn....is_winter073112

Phil Mackey quotes Terry Ryan, examines the payroll commitments and concludes....

But if Ryan holds true to his words and decides against jumping into the free agent starting pitching pool this winter, there's a good chance the Twins are effectively punting the 2013 season.


#2 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 10:17 PM

I think he/people are reading to much into it. Ryan is correct, you can't just fix a club by throwing a ton of money in free agency, you have to be smart with the contracts you sign out. Hopefully he can find the Willingham of pitchers on the market and can trade Span or someone for another pitcher.

#3 Bark's Lounge

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 10:20 PM

Terry Ryan the Politician... yuck.

#4 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 10:23 PM

"I'm not banking on free agency, to be honest. If you keep banking on free agency, you'll end up chasing your tail. This is not going to be a free agency approach. This is going to be no shortcuts and doing the job the way it's supposed to be done. And that's usually that's with young, development, scouting and picking the right people." Later in the article it says they should have 15-20 million to spend, so its not exactly like he won't pick up some players via Free Agency, he is just (correctly) stating the Twins need to improve in all aspects of the org. Sounds correct to me.

#5 TheLeviathan

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 10:25 PM

Ryan spending 15-20M and these comments makes me think we'll be targeting three Rondell White's. World Series baby. (Sorry, hard not to be a pessimist after reading this)

#6 John Bonnes

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 10:27 PM

Later in the article it says they should have 15-20 million to spend, so its not exactly like he won't pick up some players via Free Agency, he is just (correctly) stating the Twins need to improve in all aspects of the org. Sounds correct to me.


Just to clarify, that is Mackey's guess.

#7 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 10:33 PM

Just to clarify, that is Mackey's guess.


True, at this point its not worth getting worried about. Let's see what he has to work with this off-season, what trades happen and what free agents he is able to bring in.

He did a hell of a job last off-season with a limited budget in bringing in Willingham and Doumit. Hopefully he can bring in similar (just SP) this off-season.

It also seems like he is acknowledging there are holes in the lineup, $100 says he is talking about 2B/SS, hopefully they can address the MI as well somehow.

#8 Bark's Lounge

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 10:34 PM

Just to clarify, that is Mackey's guess.


We read the article - Nobody is blaming you. It's just baseball for cripes sake.:)

#9 greengoblinrulz

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 10:41 PM

The conservative Ryan is banking on players he hasnt even drafted yet........

#10 Bark's Lounge

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 10:43 PM

True, at this point its not worth getting worried about. Let's see what he has to work with this off-season, what trades happen and what free agents he is able to bring in.

He did a hell of a job last off-season with a limited budget in bringing in Willingham and Doumit. Hopefully he can bring in similar (just SP) this off-season.

It also seems like he is acknowledging there are holes in the lineup, $100 says he is talking about 2B/SS, hopefully they can address the MI as well somehow.


Let's just keep that low end, poopy FA pitcher out of the mix (No more Marquis types). I'd rather they bring up some yahoo from AA... and for the Twins that would really suck - but in my estimation would be a better option... fiscally and developmentally, while pissing off the fan base less (maybe).

#11 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 10:51 PM

[quote name='Bark's Lounge;40972]Let's just keep that low end' date=' poopy FA pitcher out of the mix (No more Marquis types). I'd rather they bring up some yahoo from AA... and for the Twins that would really suck - but in my estimation would be a better option... fiscally and developmentally, while pissing off the fan base less (maybe).[/QUOTE']

Yeah, well if Blackburn can somehow prove to be effective again that would greatly lessen the need to goto FA for some veteran #5 (Livan, Ortiz, Marquis, etc etc) to fill out the rotation.


1?
2?
3. Diamond
4. Gibson
5. Hendriks/Blackburn/DeDuno/DeVries

If that is the case he hopefully we focus on finding a #2 (I doubt we land a #1), someone like Edwin Jackson, Sanchez, Marcum would be decent targets and clear upgrades.

Actually the more I think about it, there is actually zero reason to even attempt to bring in a Marquis/Livan type. The Twins have enough warm bodies currently under team control (DeDuno, Blackburn, DeVries, Walters) where they shouldn't worry to much about filling out the back end of the rotation.

Let's assume they have 20 mil to spend (25 if they trade Span, 30 mil if they cut Alexi and trade Caroll as well)
Id want them to budget 75% of that to find front of the rotation type guys. (15-23 mil) Anything left over can be used to bring in a MI (trade Carroll, Cut Alexi), another RP if nesc and perhaps a bat off the bench, (or a stop gap RF if they trade Span)

#12 COtwin

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 11:15 PM

I agree. We either news to be players in FA 2 quality SP. Or. We need to make some offseason trades and hasten the rebuilding. The problem is the FO can't decide which way to go. But at this point all of us would rather watch some young guys try to figure it out and post a crappy record than watch a bunch of guys in their prime waste a season because the moves that were made were marginal at best and failed. For every first twins year pavano this FO has a Logan Hernandez, Sydney ponson, pavano third year, Jason marquis, etc. These low risk low reward guys are actually adding up to high risk cause the season ends up sunk.

#13 COtwin

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 11:16 PM

I know it's livan. Stupid spell check.

#14 kab21

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Posted 01 August 2012 - 12:09 AM

I think it's nothing more than Ryan being realistic about the chances of landing a good SP'er in FA. There are probably only 6 or so out there and over half of the MLB teams are going to be competing for them. It's not hard to do the math that some (most) of the teams will miss out on landing a good FA starter. And those that land the good starter will have to pay the big bucks and get stuck with an early 30's SP'er on a big 5 year contract (Buehrle and CJ Wilson for example) that is not going to end well. Everyone here thinks that the Blackburn contract hurts payroll but that is nothing compared to having 15M tied up in Lowe, burnett, lackey, or any of the many non-elite arms that signed big contracts in their 30's.

#15 JB_Iowa

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Posted 01 August 2012 - 07:27 AM

I fully expect the Dave St. Peter spin machine to go into full effect now.

I also found this statement fascinating: "We had all kinds of money this year and we didn't get it done."

Ryan anticipating a significant decrease next year ? Or is it just that Ryan LIKES being the "little engine that could" -- not appreciating that fans' expectations have changed significantly with TF?

#16 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 01 August 2012 - 07:42 AM

I think it's nothing more than Ryan being realistic about the chances of landing a good SP'er in FA. There are probably only 6 or so out there and over half of the MLB teams are going to be competing for them. It's not hard to do the math that some (most) of the teams will miss out on landing a good FA starter. And those that land the good starter will have to pay the big bucks and get stuck with an early 30's SP'er on a big 5 year contract (Buehrle and CJ Wilson for example) that is not going to end well. Everyone here thinks that the Blackburn contract hurts payroll but that is nothing compared to having 15M tied up in Lowe, burnett, lackey, or any of the many non-elite arms that signed big contracts in their 30's.


That is a really good point.
Guys like Sanchez, Jackson, Marcum all look good on paper, but if you have to give them 3 years/42 million or so it could eventually kill your club moving forward.

#17 Thrylos

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Posted 01 August 2012 - 07:56 AM

I think it does not require crystal balls to see that the Twins will not be players on the top level starting pitching free agents next off-season. These guys would require $12-20M/yr contracts for multiple seasons. And I think that the Twins are smart enough not to do that. That is that. If one of them falls through the cracks (like Edwin Jackson did last season and they passed) and can be signed with an one year contract, they should pounce. Hopefully no more Marquis/Livan/Ponson and other "veteran presence" moves... I seriously rather have them stay put and have Hendriks or some other kid and Deduno rather than have them pay $5M a year to someone like Marquis. That said, this off-season they should really start thinking about trading from strength (OF) to get some SP. I see no reason for them not to do that.
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#18 Boom Boom

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Posted 01 August 2012 - 08:07 AM

Eventually, in order to fix this rotation, the Twins will either need to sign a good pitcher to a free agent contract, or pull the trigger on a trade. Or both. The "next wave" of Twins starters is not currently in the system. I think there are many Twins fans who are frustrated not only with the poor play the last two years but also the glacial pace the Twins are on to try and fix it. TR saying these kinds of things isn't going to help season ticket sales.

#19 Badsmerf

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Posted 01 August 2012 - 08:19 AM

To get elite starting pitching, eventually you'll have to pay for it. This team isn't on a ****ing 60 million dollar budget like you guys think. They have 100 million to spend. If they EVER want to compete, they have to get good starting pitchers that aren't just rookies coming up through the system. The thought that they shouldn't put up money for it is like chasing your tail. Put your money into a guy you're confident that can stay healthy and pitch at a high level (like Hamels). I wont have any expectations for this team until they get an elite pitcher. They might be able to compete in the central, but nothing past that. Get over the little guy syndrome already.

#20 John Bonnes

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Posted 01 August 2012 - 08:19 AM

I think Ryan's point is that they're never going to just buy their way out of the basement; that building a winning organization requires lots of things besides money. But I think it also reinforces something that we could have guessed - the Twins aren't going to go hog wild in the free agent market this offseason. They never have before and I don't know why we would expect them to now. I just hope it doesn't mean they will be further slashing payroll, or not take advantage of what is going to be a crazy deep pitching free agent class.

#21 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 01 August 2012 - 08:22 AM

I just hope it doesn't mean they will be further slashing payroll, or not take advantage of what is going to be a crazy deep pitching free agent class.


I will be happy if they leave the offseason with one Sanchez/Jackson-type pitcher. Anything less than that is a failure, in my opinion.*

*barring every decent pitcher in this FA class getting crazy-stupid money like $15m+ a year. In that case, pass.

#22 CRArko

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Posted 01 August 2012 - 09:16 AM

Or they may pursue free agent pitchers Scott Baker, Carl Pavano, and Francisco Liriano. :rolleyes:

#23 Badsmerf

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Posted 01 August 2012 - 09:24 AM

Or they may pursue free agent pitchers Scott Baker, Carl Pavano, and Francisco Liriano. :rolleyes:


My opinion is that Baker is back on an incentive type deal with a club option. Makes too much sense for both parties.

#24 kab21

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Posted 01 August 2012 - 09:28 AM

To get elite starting pitching, eventually you'll have to pay for it. This team isn't on a ****ing 60 million dollar budget like you guys think. They have 100 million to spend. If they EVER want to compete, they have to get good starting pitchers that aren't just rookies coming up through the system. The thought that they shouldn't put up money for it is like chasing your tail. Put your money into a guy you're confident that can stay healthy and pitch at a high level (like Hamels). I wont have any expectations for this team until they get an elite pitcher. They might be able to compete in the central, but nothing past that. Get over the little guy syndrome already.


So you think the best time to eventually pay for it is when you are coming off of consecutive 90 loss seasons?

#25 Top Gun

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Posted 01 August 2012 - 09:38 AM

You won't get any of the 3 for less than 15m and will probably take a 4 year deal to do that, Price of pitching is going up!

#26 DPJ

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Posted 01 August 2012 - 09:53 AM

Get your 2013 twins season tickets now!!!

#27 TRex

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Posted 01 August 2012 - 10:48 AM

I think people forget you can acquire a top-end starting pitcher without going the FA route (i.e. via trade like Cincy dealing for Mat Latos last year). In addition, the 'future aces' in their 4th or 5th year are usually cheaper with less wear on their arms. I would imagine most clubs would at least listen if the offer started with Miguel Sano, so if we could identify a similar future ace with at least 2 years of team control, would you be willing to deal 3 top-15 prospects, including Sano, for him?

#28 kab21

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Posted 01 August 2012 - 11:08 AM

I think people forget you can acquire a top-end starting pitcher without going the FA route (i.e. via trade like Cincy dealing for Mat Latos last year). In addition, the 'future aces' in their 4th or 5th year are usually cheaper with less wear on their arms. I would imagine most clubs would at least listen if the offer started with Miguel Sano, so if we could identify a similar future ace with at least 2 years of team control, would you be willing to deal 3 top-15 prospects, including Sano, for him?


For next season: no chance. 2 years ago: yes and I suggested it on BYTO. This team is not a Mat Latos away despite what some think.

#29 Top Gun

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Posted 01 August 2012 - 11:22 AM

I would give up at lest a couple top prospects for someone in his 1st or 2nd year if I thaught he was good.

#30 Badsmerf

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Posted 01 August 2012 - 11:23 AM

So you think the best time to eventually pay for it is when you are coming off of consecutive 90 loss seasons?


Maybe. Depends on how the rest of the year plays out. In order for me to say yes these things have to happen: Plouffe's break-out is legit (follows up with a strong ending to the year), Gibson looks like he could be ready to start the year in MN (being ready and actually starting are different), Blackburn turns his season around, Baker doesn't have set-backs, Hendriks figures it out (biggest question mark), Morneau being healthy, and one of the young OF is ready for a full time role. If all these things happen, which isn't that crazy, I say yes. With Hendriks and Gibson you will add 2 guys instantly that can be at least league average, maybe better. Not much should be expected of Baker, but league average isn't crazy. I know it wont happen, but add Grienke and this team would be pretty good. Playoff team with pieces to trade to get another elite pitcher if wanted. I just don't like the notion of thinking it is impossible for this team to put up big money for a pitcher, when pitching wins games.