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Article: It's Time!

jose berrios jorge polanco jt chargois trevor hildenberger alex wimmers
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#41 jimmer

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Posted 20 July 2016 - 06:25 AM

 

Heres the funny thing.. slightly better.. Polanco made it to the MLB at 21, Dozier wasn't even drafted until he was just over 22 years old. when Dozier had his "Breakout season" he was 24 years old in AA..

Well, yeah, Dozier didn't get drafted till he was 22.He went to college, like Kris Bryant (also drafted at age 22).You think Polanco is better than Bryant too, based on how old he was when he was drafted?

Edited by jimmer, 20 July 2016 - 06:28 AM.

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#42 ashbury

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Posted 20 July 2016 - 08:14 AM

Well, yeah, Dozier didn't get drafted till he was 22.He went to college, like Kris Bryant (also drafted at age 22).You think Polanco is better than Bryant too, based on how old he was when he was drafted?

I think Bryant reinforces the point about age comparisons, rather than negates it.

 

Bryant was an absolute stud coming out of college, drafted high in the first round and then destroyed the pitchers at every level he played, demonstrating MLB readiness by age 23 (and the Cubs may have been conservative in how they advanced him, at least as regards his bat).

 

Dozier was drafted in the 8th round, where nothing is a sure thing, and he needed more time to acquire and then demonstrate MLB readiness. His resume looks nothing like Bryant's.

 

Obviously Polanco's bat doesn't stack up to Bryant's either. Hardly anybody's does. Youth alone doesn't guarantee MLB success - I was once 18 years old, and you probably were too. :) But conversely, you will make poor decisions about young players if you compare at face value what a 20 year old achieves at high-A to what a 23 year old does.

It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. -- Arthur Conan Doyle


#43 jimmer

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Posted 20 July 2016 - 08:21 AM

 

I think Bryant reinforces the point about age comparisons, rather than negates it.

 

Bryant was an absolute stud coming out of college, drafted high in the first round and then destroyed the pitchers at every level he played, demonstrating MLB readiness by age 23 (and the Cubs may have been conservative in how they advanced him, at least as regards his bat).

 

Dozier was drafted in the 8th round, where nothing is a sure thing, and he needed more time to acquire and then demonstrate MLB readiness. His resume looks nothing like Bryant's.

 

Obviously Polanco's bat doesn't stack up to Bryant's either. Hardly anybody's does. Youth alone doesn't guarantee MLB success - I was once 18 years old, and you probably were too. :) But conversely, you will make poor decisions about young players if you compare at face value what a 20 year old achieves at high-A to what a 23 year old does.

Yeah, I'm saying if a person is just looking at how old a player is when drafted to base any idea about how good someone is, they're missing the boat.Nothing 'funny' about it when you realize one went to college and one didn't.

 

But yeah, as far as comparing numbers, it was like people comparing Buxton's numbers in his first stint in the majors to Trout when Trout had his first stint in the majors. Trout was two years younger during his first stint.

 

And yeah,I was 18 once.Looking up stock numbers on microfiche with only two stripes on my arm,  not having a cell phone, loving my Atari 2600, being in love for the first time (and no, I don't mean my Atari 2600 :-)).

Edited by jimmer, 20 July 2016 - 08:23 AM.


#44 beckmt

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Posted 20 July 2016 - 08:30 AM

Royals are a club that needs Dozier, but does not like spending prospects plus they need pitching more. Some national league clubs are a better bet.

#45 DocBauer

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Posted 20 July 2016 - 08:40 AM

I'm not sure you can compare their minor league numbers for many of the reasons mentioned here.Context matters and they don't have much in common. That said, Dozier has shown the ability to be an elite hitter and above average defender at the major league level for long periods of time. While Polanco to be fair hasn't had the opportunity to do so, those types of players don't exactly grown on trees.
 
I think at the end of the day, trading Dozier is the right answer, especially with only 2 years left under contract, but I don't pretend to think that Polanco can walk in and out produce him in 2017. He may never put a season like Dozier.


You are correct that Polanco hasn't had his opportunity and we all know that has to change. And soon!

I'm still torn on trading Dozier. He still brings a lot to this team, but his return should also be good. And he's still young enough to be part of this rebuild.

I find the Polanco vs Dozier debates to be interesting. I see no reason why Polanco can't be a fine defensive 2B, as good as or better than Dozier. But they are different types of players. And that's OK. Polanco may develop some double digit HR power, but will probably never be a 20+ HR guy like Dozier. But he will almost assuredly hit more, have a decent to good OB, and provide speed and quite a few doubles. Losing Dozier's HR would stink, but it should also be offset, eventually if not immediately, by 1B/DH becoming more settled, Rosario and Kepler.

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#46 spycake

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Posted 20 July 2016 - 08:42 AM

 

However, he does need to be added to the 40 man in the offseason, so it is possible. I just don't see it as likely.

If Granite needs to be added to the 40 man, they might as well call him up for September (or earlier if there are any injuries).  7.5% K rate this year, 34 steals -- he could be a Ben Revere type -- not great, but has value at minimal salary, and would be a potential Rule 5 pick for someone too.


#47 jimmer

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Posted 20 July 2016 - 08:45 AM

 

I find the Polanco vs Dozier debates to be interesting. I see no reason why Polanco can't be a fine defensive 2B, as good as or better than Dozier. But they are different types of players. And that's OK. Polanco may develop some double digit HR power, but will probably never be a 20+ HR guy like Dozier. But he will almost assuredly hit more, have a decent to good OB, and provide speed and quite a few doubles. Losing Dozier's HR would stink, but it should also be offset, eventually if not immediately, by 1B/DH becoming more settled, Rosario and Kepler.

I like this thought process. 


#48 Mike Sixel

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Posted 20 July 2016 - 08:50 AM

Huh....if Granite needs to be added, I'd cut Santana now, and call him up. At least he can catch the ball and steal a base.....

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It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#49 Twinsoholic

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Posted 20 July 2016 - 09:05 AM

Add Baxendale to the list of guys who are doing well and deserve consideration of a ca,, up to the Twins. He was starting in AA, and has been doing very well out of the pen since being called up to Rochester.

 

 


#50 jimmer

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Posted 20 July 2016 - 09:10 AM

 

I'd cut Santana now

I agree. :-)


#51 Seth Stohs

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Posted 20 July 2016 - 09:23 AM

 

If Granite needs to be added to the 40 man, they might as well call him up for September (or earlier if there are any injuries).  7.5% K rate this year, 34 steals -- he could be a Ben Revere type -- not great, but has value at minimal salary, and would be a potential Rule 5 pick for someone too.

 

It honestly, in my opinion, comes down to numbers at some point. 

 

I mean, where is he going to play? Pending trades, the Twins are rolling with Grossman, Rosario, Buxton and Kepler in the outfield the rest of the way. Maybe if they trade/DFA Santana, Granite could come up to back up Buxton (though Rosario could do that too with Grossman playing LF. I'd like to see Granite, but I think it's more important for him to play until the Lookouts season is over, and then add him to the 40 man and let him come to spring training next year and then go to Rochester. 

 

It's the same as I laid out with Walker and Palka. Would be fun to see them, but they aren't going to get ABs in LF or RF in September and DH already has like 4-5 guys vying for at bats. 

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#52 Seth Stohs

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Posted 20 July 2016 - 09:26 AM

 

Well Seth, Zack Granite or Danny Santana? Defense: Granite.. Speed: Granite  Hitting: 50/50 maybe? I dont see why not to try Granite as a backup to Buxton instead of Santana.

 

Like I wrote in another response... if Santana is gone, I have no problem with them bring in up Granite to back up Buxton AFTER the Lookouts season is over. Granite needs to keep getting at bats until there's time for bonus baseball. He could be a great candidate for the Arizona Fall League. 

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#53 d-mac

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Posted 20 July 2016 - 09:28 AM

 

He's got two situations that are equally against him.

 

Like Palka/Walker, there are only so many outfield spots available. Can't bring them all up.

 

However, he does need to be added to the 40 man in the offseason, so it is possible. I just don't see it as likely.

 

I have no problem keeping Granite in AA the rest of the year and then add him to the 40 man in the offseason. 

4-27-2016: El dia de La Maquina


#54 Mike Sixel

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Posted 20 July 2016 - 09:32 AM

It's still time.....

 

I imagine I'll be typing that for days to come....

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It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#55 Seth Stohs

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Posted 20 July 2016 - 09:33 AM

 

Add Baxendale to the list of guys who are doing well and deserve consideration of a ca,, up to the Twins. He was starting in AA, and has been doing very well out of the pen since being called up to Rochester.

 

Baxendale is another good choice. Since moving to the Rochester bullpen, 12 scoreless innings over nine games. 4 hits, 3 walks, 11 strikeouts. The first times I saw him pitch were after he was drafted. He was pushed to Beloit and pitched out of the bullpen. His fastball/slider combo looked really good. Might be the best spot for him.


#56 d-mac

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Posted 20 July 2016 - 09:34 AM

I would still consider keeping E Santana unless the return is nice. Plouffe, Nolasco, Milton and Suzuki should all be gone soon. Not convinced moving Nunez or Escobar is a good move. I don't feel the necessity to gut the roster for the sake of doing so. And both offer ability and roles, TBD, and offer additional roster depth and flexability. Especially if we do consider moving Dozier at some point.

But I want Polanco up. I'd consider moving on from D Santana even though there is still potential there. And both Kepler and Rosario can play CF here and there when Buxton needs a break.

Berrios and Wheeler in the rotation now. (Still want to stretch out May, but might not happen now until next year)

Chargois and Wimmers up in place of Ramirez and whoever else is moved. I'd like to bring Boshers up too, but we need to see if we actually have something in Wimmers. And as crazy good as he's been, I'm not sure how you don't bring up Hildenberger at some point.

Not sure about Palka. I like him. I still hold out real hope for Walker as well. But there are so many AB and Walker is still a work in progress and Palka just got to AAA, so I guess I'm a no for now.

Granite and Garver should both be at AAA tomorow. Could see Garver in September, but Murphy needs a fair audition for now.

 
I agree with everything you said here. But... Milton? We traded Eric Milton a long time ago.:cool:

 

Although... We probably should move Nunez. I'd be nice to sell high for once. He's the perfect deadline trade candidate. 

4-27-2016: El dia de La Maquina


#57 spycake

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Posted 20 July 2016 - 09:38 AM

 

It honestly, in my opinion, comes down to numbers at some point. 

 

I mean, where is he going to play? Pending trades, the Twins are rolling with Grossman, Rosario, Buxton and Kepler in the outfield the rest of the way. Maybe if they trade/DFA Santana, Granite could come up to back up Buxton (though Rosario could do that too with Grossman playing LF. I'd like to see Granite, but I think it's more important for him to play until the Lookouts season is over, and then add him to the 40 man and let him come to spring training next year and then go to Rochester. 

 

It's the same as I laid out with Walker and Palka. Would be fun to see them, but they aren't going to get ABs in LF or RF in September and DH already has like 4-5 guys vying for at bats. 

Once the minor league season is done, there is nowhere for these guys to play until the AFL in October. Even if it's to ride the pine and get 1 start a week, they might as well be doing it in MLB instead of sitting at home.

 

Furthermore, Grossman won't need the September at-bats all that much, and Santana may have already cemented his offseason status by then.  So the 4th outfielder spot could be open for auditions.  And Mauer absolutely doesn't need to play every day at 1B, if that can open an opportunity for Palka (although Park might take those at-bats too).

 

There are likely to be injuries between now and the end of the season too.  I'd probably rather see these new guys fill in rather than Grossman and Santana.


#58 d-mac

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Posted 20 July 2016 - 09:39 AM

Well, yeah, Dozier didn't get drafted till he was 22.He went to college, like Kris Bryant (also drafted at age 22).You think Polanco is better than Bryant too, based on how old he was when he was drafted?

 

 

Que?

4-27-2016: El dia de La Maquina


#59 d-mac

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Posted 20 July 2016 - 09:44 AM

 

You are correct that Polanco hasn't had his opportunity and we all know that has to change. And soon!

I'm still torn on trading Dozier. He still brings a lot to this team, but his return should also be good. And he's still young enough to be part of this rebuild.

I find the Polanco vs Dozier debates to be interesting. I see no reason why Polanco can't be a fine defensive 2B, as good as or better than Dozier. But they are different types of players. And that's OK. Polanco may develop some double digit HR power, but will probably never be a 20+ HR guy like Dozier. But he will almost assuredly hit more, have a decent to good OB, and provide speed and quite a few doubles. Losing Dozier's HR would stink, but it should also be offset, eventually if not immediately, by 1B/DH becoming more settled, Rosario and Kepler.

 

Dozier will be turning 30 next May. So, he'll be in his decline phase when it's time to compete again. Smart teams would sell high on him now or in the offseason. 

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4-27-2016: El dia de La Maquina


#60 jimmer

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Posted 20 July 2016 - 09:44 AM

 

Que?

makes more sense, if you read the quote I was quoting whenI wrote that.Or maybe it won't :-)




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