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Is Arcia the best prospect in the system?

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#1 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 26 July 2012 - 10:05 AM

As some BYTOers know, I've been really high on Arcia for a long time now. He's just a few months into his 21st birthday and is mashing at New Britain. He's posting a .943 OPS overall with a 1.078 OPS in July. In his last ten games, he's OPSing at a whopping 1.138. He only has a couple of months at AA and has certainly hit the ground running. Is it time to start putting this kid on the same level as Sano? Oswaldo just keeps getting better and better. I've long thought that he was the second best prospect behind Sano but now I'm starting to think he may be on the same level due to his young-ish age for AA and his continued progression through the system.

#2 Twins Fan From Afar

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Posted 26 July 2012 - 10:11 AM

I think the answer is yes. Even if Arcia regresses a little in August, it still will have been a fantastic season for him. When I do my top 10 prospect rankings over the winter, it's going to be a tough decision choosing between Arcia and Sano.
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#3 Mayhem25

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Posted 26 July 2012 - 10:13 AM

I agree that he should at least be considered equal to Sano if not a spot ahead. It looks as though Arcia has adjusted well at each level while Sano has shown his power tool, but he still need's plenty of work refining his approach or contact skills, whichever is causing all the K's!

#4 Nick Nelson

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Posted 26 July 2012 - 10:15 AM

I was thinking about him yesterday. Arcia's pretty exciting – kid can straight mash. Reminds me of Jason Kubel as a prospect. I'd still rank him behind Sano and maybe Rosario, but he's on the rise.

#5 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 26 July 2012 - 10:15 AM

I agree that he should at least be considered equal to Sano if not a spot ahead. It looks as though Arcia has adjusted well at each level while Sano has shown his power tool, but he still need's plenty of work refining his approach or contact skills, whichever is causing all the K's!


To be fair to Miguel, he's two years younger than Arcia and only one level behind him in the system.

And until recently, Arcia was a K monster himself. A good sign is that he's struck out 20 times in 80 ABs in July and only 5 times in the past ten games. Hopefully the trend continues to move downward as he continues to adjust to the new level.

#6 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 26 July 2012 - 10:17 AM

I was thinking about him yesterday. Arcia's pretty exciting – kid can straight mash. Reminds me of Jason Kubel as a prospect. I'd still rank him behind Sano and maybe Rosario, but he's on the rise.


I also think of Jason Kubel (pre-knee injury) when thinking of Arcia, though it seems that Oswaldo is better defensively... After all, he stuck at CF for quite awhile until he was promoted to the same level as Benson and Hicks.

#7 Twins Fan From Afar

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Posted 26 July 2012 - 10:19 AM

Interesting on the Kubel comparisons -- when I watched the video of Arcia's walk-off home run last week, the swing actually reminded me a little of Kubel's.
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#8 mike wants wins

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Posted 26 July 2012 - 10:24 AM

Tough call, I'd say that Arcia is closer to Sano than many of us thought he'd be. Success at a higher level (and it is really 2 levels, not 1), is a big deal to me. That said, Hicks may be back to number 1 by the end of the year. Between Hicks and Arcia (and hopefully Benson), that's why I'm more than willing to trade Span and Willingham right now (because I don't really care about this year anymore).
Lighten up Francis....

#9 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 26 July 2012 - 10:30 AM

Success at a higher level (and it is really 2 levels, not 1), is a big deal to me.


Derp derp, you're right. Two levels. Apparently I forgot about this little place called "Ft Myers".

#10 gunnarthor

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Posted 26 July 2012 - 10:32 AM

Arcia will probably sneak into some 'professional' prospect lists in the 50-80 range but that'll still leave him behind Sano, Buxton and probably Rosario. Hicks could jump him as well. But he's an intriguing prospect.

#11 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 26 July 2012 - 10:35 AM

Arcia will probably sneak into some 'professional' prospect lists in the 50-80 range but that'll still leave him behind Sano, Buxton and probably Rosario. Hicks could jump him as well. But he's an intriguing prospect.


It's going to be damned hard to ignore a 21yo that puts up a 1.000 OPS in AA. In my opinion, that should weigh a lot more than "toolsy with potential".

Then again, like Mike, I've always put an emphasis on upper level performance over tools.

#12 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 26 July 2012 - 10:37 AM

With Hick's recent resurgence I am inclined to put him above Arcia at this point as well. Arcia has to mash in order to be an effective player while Hicks already will be an asset with his fielding, pitch selection and legs alone. With that said its a good argument to have since both players look like they could be all-star caliber type players in the big leagues.

#13 IdahoPilgrim

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Posted 26 July 2012 - 10:40 AM

I don't know if I'd put him ahead of Sano or Buxton, but certainly he is the closest to being MLB-ready of any of our top prospects.

#14 righty8383

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Posted 26 July 2012 - 10:42 AM

If we're talking about ceiling alone I guess he would still be behing Sano, Buxton, Hicks and Rosario. But then you factor in his floor, his expected call up time and likelyhood of reaching his potential, I have to put Arcia at the top of the prospects list right now.

#15 DPJ

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Posted 26 July 2012 - 11:03 AM

I'd take Hicks up the middle skills over Arica. But love what's he's been doing.

#16 Badsmerf

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Posted 26 July 2012 - 11:40 AM

With Hick's recent resurgence I am inclined to put him above Arcia at this point as well. Arcia has to mash in order to be an effective player while Hicks already will be an asset with his fielding, pitch selection and legs alone.

With that said its a good argument to have since both players look like they could be all-star caliber type players in the big leagues.


Who is more likely to be an All-Star? At this point it is Arcia and its not even close. Only way Hicks can pass Arcia is by doing what Arica has done the whole season and Arcia falling off. Don't get me wrong though, Hicks has played very well and the top 5 prospects in the Twins system now look like they will be impact players.

I don't see what is so close about this. Not many players destroy AA like Arcia has done. Sano has shown one dimension so far, and its power. Sano's power potential might be better than Arcia's, but also has a much higher chance of failing. I'll put more weight on performances at higher levels than ceilings every day. If Sano only had one problem there would be a better argument, but he's a question mark in the field and his contact rate is questionable. Sure he can improve, but hard to put him over player that is 21 and OPSing 930 in AA, and over 1000 in the last month.

#17 Oxtung

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Posted 26 July 2012 - 11:45 AM

I like the numbers Arcia is putting up but there is cause to think he'll come back to earth at some point. He fluctuates between a 20%-25% K rate so his BABIP is driving his batting average. His BABIP has been off the charts at times. At 3 of his stops it has been >.390. That isn't sustainable. However his SLG is certainly intriguing. I guess as far as prospects go I like him but he sure isn't ready for the big show yet.

#18 anthonyq77

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Posted 26 July 2012 - 11:49 AM

The Twins outfield prospects seem to be doing very well this year (other than Benson). Arcia made the jump to AA seemlessly, Hicks is finally putting it all together, Revere has graduated from prospect to solid MLB'er heck even Kepler down in E-town is progressing nicely. are there any other orgs. that have as good a group of OF talent?

#19 DPJ

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Posted 26 July 2012 - 11:51 AM

Who is more likely to be an All-Star? At this point it is Arcia and its not even close. Only way Hicks can pass Arcia is by doing what Arica has done the whole season and Arcia falling off. Don't get me wrong though, Hicks has played very well and the top 5 prospects in the Twins system now look like they will be impact players.



What the hell does being an All-Star have to do with anything?

I don't think it's crazy at all to think that Hicks conbination of hitting, defense, arm & speed could far be more valuable then Arcia's bat and modest defense.

#20 Badsmerf

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Posted 26 July 2012 - 12:02 PM

Who says his defense is modest? I think I've seen its pretty good.

#21 twinscowboysbulls

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Posted 26 July 2012 - 12:04 PM

Would this be fair? 1. Sano 2. Buxton 3. Arcia 4. Hicks 5. Gibson

#22 rickyhawaii

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Posted 26 July 2012 - 12:05 PM

Wish he could draw more walks but i think he's upped his walk rate this season? He seems too make enough contact though since his average has always been good. he also has a good arm in the outfield? His swing reminds me of Kubel. I still think Hicks, Buxton and Kepler would be ahead of him because of defense. Also Arcia struggles hitting lefties

#23 Winston Smith

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Posted 26 July 2012 - 12:16 PM

Seems like Hicks has not lived up to the hype but if you look at his stats next to Torii age for age to where Hicks is now he has been better at every level. If he turns out as good as Torii I'd be real happy. Trade Rumor says the O's are looking at Frankie. Not sure what they have to offer back, maybe crab cakes?

#24 DPJ

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Posted 26 July 2012 - 12:18 PM

Who says his defense is modest? I think I've seen its pretty good.




I wouldn't put him in the Delmon/Willingham class, but I wouldn't put him in the JD Drew class either.

From everything I've read he's a modest defender. Won't kill ya but also don't shock the world.

#25 twinscowboysbulls

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Posted 26 July 2012 - 12:22 PM

I wouldn't put him in the Delmon/Willingham class, but I wouldn't put him in the JD Drew class either.

From everything I've read he's a modest defender. Won't kill ya but also don't shock the world.


As long as he isn't Delmon/Kubel/Cuddyer/Willingham I'd say he isn't too bad defensively. I would expect average to slightly above average defense from Arcia.

#26 DPJ

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Posted 26 July 2012 - 12:28 PM

As long as he isn't Delmon/Kubel/Cuddyer/Willingham I'd say he isn't too bad defensively. I would expect average to slightly above average defense from Arcia.


I used modest cause it's a nice in between, not good not bad...just modest defense (which I would be more then happy with)

In the end I'd take Hicks tool and abilities to effect a game while also playing an up the middle position over Arcia. Doesn't mean I don't like Arcia, it's just my personal thing.

#27 greengoblinrulz

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Posted 26 July 2012 - 12:35 PM

Paul Molitor was on radio today talkin minor leagues. Says Arcia still has major holes in his swing on breakin pitches & is over a yr away from bein ready. Surprised by this but still will be stunned if hes not a Sept callup. Says Hicks is much closer to bein MLB ready which surprises me as Molly is known to be reluctant to praise younger players....reason he no longer coaches fulltime. BJ Hermsen is toppin out @ 86mph but gets guys out.

#28 DPJ

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Posted 26 July 2012 - 12:38 PM

BJ Hermsen is toppin out @ 86mph but gets guys out.


His Blackburn-esqe K-rate and lack of groundball has no chance to succeed in the majors.

Jesus what happened to this kid.

#29 mike wants wins

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Posted 26 July 2012 - 12:43 PM

Hermsen is a great trade candidate, if you can find a team that believes in success w/o good/great stuff.....
Lighten up Francis....

#30 DPJ

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Posted 26 July 2012 - 12:48 PM

Hermsen is a great trade candidate, if you can find a team that believes in success w/o good/great stuff.....


Like the Minnesota Twins?

Hell the Twins office probably love his lack of stuff but strike throwing ability.