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How many home run will Joe Mauer hit in 2012?

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41 replies to this topic

#31 Järpen Fäviken

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Posted 25 February 2012 - 03:02 PM

15. But truly, I care less about HRs, Mauer's asset is not "pop." I wish for Mauer to: a. Stay healthy b. Win another BA championship c. Be a leader to a team that needs it d. Improve his relationship with the fan Go Twins! And good luck Joe!

#32 sonofkenny

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Posted 25 February 2012 - 03:40 PM

Goin with 22...have a feeling he thinks he has something to prove in that area

#33 Bogey Guy

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Posted 25 February 2012 - 06:56 PM

Mauer will hit the lucky 13 home runs--it's gotta be his year

#34 jwestbrock

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Posted 26 February 2012 - 08:56 PM

I'm pessimistic about this for some reason and I'd have to go with 7 just because his opposite field power is negated 81 games a year. But I do think he'll hit around 40 doubles if healthy.

#35 CA

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Posted 26 February 2012 - 10:35 PM

I'm going with 10.

#36 wblmayo24

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Posted 26 February 2012 - 11:10 PM

25. 8 to RF, 7 to CF and 10 to LF. 2 walk offs and 1 grand slam. Check back in October.

#37 DAM DC Twins Fans

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Posted 27 February 2012 - 10:59 AM

I dont think Mauer can get to double digits in HR unless he plays less than 100 games at C. If he plays mostly at C, he will get tired (at best) injured (at worst). Time to move Mauer to 1B and Morneau to DH.

#38 JakeE141414

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Posted 27 February 2012 - 02:05 PM

I don't doubt he gets double digits this year with my guess being 14 (5 at home).

#39 StormJH1

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Posted 28 February 2012 - 11:54 AM

I dont think Mauer can get to double digits in HR unless he plays less than 100 games at C. If he plays mostly at C, he will get tired (at best) injured (at worst). Time to move Mauer to 1B and Morneau to DH.

Interesting take. I've said all winter that the most surprisingly under-reported item discussed in the offseason was Mauer's transition to 1B. It became pretty clear last year (during the short stretches where Mauer was available) that Gardy using that lost season as an experiment to figure out how else they can use Mauer in the field. People have been more focused on Morneau this year and his comeback, which has suppressed the "Mauer to 1B" talk. But let's face, the odds are strongly against seeing Morneau for a 100 games this year, and if the concussion issue is still there, he may not even play 10. He also has several other injuries that could pop up even if the head is okay.

Mauer definitely changes his approach when he's hurt. I think people assume that all the criticism of him stems from the fact that he was a #1 pick, hometown hero, and this 6'5" guy that should have power. I think what frustrates them more is that you can just tell what his approach is when he gets up to the plate, and it isn't one of a guy who wants to be a star or a team leader. He reminds me of how I felt in Little League...I was a big kid and a good player, but I wasn't a power hitter. I was more focused on doing good for the team, and was just as happy to walk or slap a single somewhere because that would pass the buck to the NEXT guy, who may strike out or strand all the runners on base. Mauer's like that too, to a degree...he plays scared. He's a great hitter and very confident in what he does, but he either doesn't know or doesn't want to be the guy that's asked to carry the team. And that bothers the hell out of me as a fan.

When Mauer's hurt, he doesn't seem to have ANY interest in driving the ball, whereas he would normally pick his spots and occasionally turn on one. I don't think he can stay healthy at catcher, but I think the start of this season is huge. I think he gets down on himself easily, and if he gets to May and only has a homer or two, I think he's on pace for another 9-12 homer year. Also agree with the guy above who said that hitting at Target Field affects his approach at OTHER ballparks, as well.

#40 2wins87

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Posted 28 February 2012 - 01:11 PM

Here's a few pertinent splits: Between 2004 and 2007, Mauer hit 13 Home runs at the Metrodome and 22 in away parks. In 2008 He figured out how to hit for power in the Metrodome, hitting 7 at home, the most in a season there up to that point. We all know what happened in 2009, and in total, Mauer hit 23 home runs at the Metrodome and 14 at away parks in 2008 and 2009. Since moving to Target Field, Mauer has hit 1 home run at home and 11 in away parks. A lot has been made of how hitting at Target field has hurt his hitting on the road as well, but I don't really buy that. He hit 8 home runs at away parks in 2010, which is third in his career to 12 in 2009 and 10 in 2006. Last year he was injured and his hitting suffered everywhere. But I don't think his power has really dropped off that much on the road. The truth is, it's just hard to hit it out of Target Field, especially for a gap hitter like Mauer. As long as he plays at Target Field half of the year, I don't see him breaking 15 home runs in a season. Which assumes he can hit a healthy 10 or so on the road, but only a few more at home. But this won't really matter much if he can stay healthy, get on base, and play behind the plate on a regular basis. We'll see how that goes.

#41 Shane Wahl

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Posted 19 September 2012 - 12:27 AM

So, I thought it was time to resurrect this thread. Those who predicted 10 or 11 are on the path to victory here. My 14 is a bit high, but maybe there is a power surge about to take place.

#42 jokin

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Posted 19 September 2012 - 01:15 AM

So, I thought it was time to resurrect this thread. Those who predicted 10 or 11 are on the path to victory here. My 14 is a bit high, but maybe there is a power surge about to take place.


I like the way he's seeing the ball and swinging the bat, gotta check his GB%, but it seems like a majority of his swings are on an elevated plane now. I thought he'd top out at 9 HRs. If he's especially focused, as I suspect, because he sees a potential 4th batting title in reach, I doubt he's going to taking any intentional HR swings the rest of the way (not that he does too often anyway). I'll settle for a .450 finish to close out the season- hitting line drive ropes and gappers. (For September he's batting .474 with a .1364 OPS).

Edited by jokin, 19 September 2012 - 04:34 PM.




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