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Article: Official Twins Daily Draft Day Thread & Cheat Sheet

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#1 Jeremy Nygaard

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Posted 09 June 2016 - 03:02 AM

It’s time.

Ok, well… it’s not literally time yet. But the day has arrived: MLB Draft Day.

I couldn’t sleep and I figured now is as good of a time as any to get this ball rolling.10:08pm: Keegan Akin, my 4th round pick, just went to the Orioles in the second round.

10:03pm: Ryan Boldt just drafted by the Rays. Good for Boldt!

9:58pm: Erceg and Shore both off the board. Lots of catchers available still...

9:42pm: Interesting to see which teams - the expected ones - taking the high price tag guys now as the draft continues. Braves getting Anderson/Wentz/Muller and the Phillies getting Moniak/Gowdy. Big $$$$. Even the Reds and Trammell.

9:29pm: Daulton Jefferies was my pick to go to the Twins in Round 2. He went to the A's. I already lost my Will Smith pick to the Dodgers.

9:22pm: Comp Round A kicked off. Reds take a high schooler with a high price tag... see if that's a trend with some of these teams (Atlanta and Philadelphia).

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7:43pm: Twins take Kirilloff, a polished high school hitter.

7:37pm: TWINS ARE ON THE CLOCK!

7:31pm: Law says Will Benson to Indians. Get. It. Dunn.

7:27pm: Lowe to Rays. For me, I'm taking Justin Dunn. If he's gone, I'm taking Kirilloff.

7:20pm: Sounds like Groome to the Red Sox. I have Groome #2 on my board based on talent alone. There are some concerns, however. Twins are up in three picks...!

7:18pm: Fingers crossed that Red Sox take Rutherford here. Rutherford doesn't do it for me.

7:14pm: Collins to the White Sox is ok with me. Lewis should go to Mariners here. Dunn and Kirilloff are favorites to go to Twins at this point.

7:08pm: Manning to the Tigers took me by surprise, but I'm glad because he's one guy I didn't see the Twins taking. Lengthens their board.

7:02pm: Padres take Cal Quantrill. I had him mocked correctly for a while... hoped he would fall to Twins.

6:56pm: Cooper says there are "rumblings" this could be Kyle Lewis to Padres. I'm ok with that. Probably will try to get Manning with their next pick. Marlins make Garrett official. Twins really liked him.

6:52pm: Braxton Garrett expected to be selected by Marlins. Garrett to the Twins was my #1 pipe-dream. Boras/Vandy guy.

6:48pm: Nothing reported on Marlins front yet, but many expect Braxton Garrett to be drafted next. Puk to A's done.

6:46pm: Puk likely to come off board to A's. Really surprised Kyle Lewis is still available. He won't fall to Twins, but someone will get quite a bat.

6:40pm: Wow. Brewers go with Ray - not Puk. I've had a few people tell me that Ray is the best player in the draft. The Brewers could have some freaky good outfields in the future with Phillips, Clark, Gatewood, Harrison and now Ray.

6:37pm: If Brewers take Puk, they get a steal. He was #1 on my board.

6:34pm: So far I'm one-for-four in my mock draft, but I really like the Pint pick. Pitchers don't want to sign there, so you have to draft them. I think Pint is going to be a star. Nothing crazy so far.

6:32pm: Jeff Passan tweets that the Braves are expected to save $2.5-$3m on the Anderson pick. They basically get to make another top 10 pick. Rockies make Riley Pint official. Pint throws straight gas (homey) and I compared him to Max Scherzer.

6:27pm: Braves make Ian Anderson official. They will have a lot of money to play with. I declare them draft winners. (Kidding.)

6:22pm: Braves are on the clock and expected to take Ian Anderson. Who had him as the first prep pitcher off of the board? Not me. But I did have Anderson connected to the Braves all along, so I'll count that as a three-quarters-win.

6:20pm: Cooper also says Rutherford to Brewers. He not-so-correctly had Daz Cameron to the Astros last year. Reds make Senzel official. Boras guy, can't imagine they're going to save a ton, but enough to make a difference in round 2 for sure.

6:17pm: Cooper says Puk to Brewers at 5. If A's go Groome, that puts Marlins on clock. Braxton Garrett has been the name mentioned most.

6:15pm: John Manuel suggesting that the Braves may go Corey Ray. Could Anderson fall to #40? I've said as much.

6:13pm update: Keith Law says Pint to Rockies at 4 and after the Brewers pick at 5, Jason Groome could go sixth to the A's.

6:12pm update: All indications are that the Phillies are taking Moniak, the Reds are taking Senzel, the Braves are taking Anderson (!) and that would put the Rockies in position to get a pitcher that they want - either A.J. Puk or Riley Pint.

5:58pm update: ARE YOU READY?! LET'S DO THIS!

3pm update: John Manuel has been updating and reupdating his mock draft.... but still has Dakota Hudson going to the Twins. He's got Kirilloff going to the Angels at #16 and Whitley going to the Blue Jays at #21.

LEN3 tweeted that the Twins are scheduled to make their first pick around 7:20 and their last two picks around 10:08. Schedule accordingly. I might do a Periscope after the last two picks if people are interested.

11:10 update: Keith Law says that Rutherford is still in play for the Brewers and that Whitley is in play to the Mariners. Frankie Piliere adds Zach Burdi to the list the Mariners could be considering.

11 am update: There are lot of new rumors floating out there. The newest has Ian Anderson going to the Braves at #3 on an underslot deal and the Braves hoping to catch Groome at #40. I will be posting noteworthy news here. So keep it here and refresh often.

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In the midst of a poor season, we always have the future to look toward. The draft is a small step to realizing that future and by the time you go to bed tonight, the Twins will have added four pieces of that future.

This three-day event starts on Thursday evening (tonight!) at 6pm and concludes on Saturday. The first 77 picks (Round 1 through Comp B Round) are Thursday. Round 3 will start at noon on Friday and last through Round 10. Round 11 will begin at 11 am on Saturday and last until the conclusion of the draft, which is 40 rounds long.

The Twins will make their first selection with the 15th overall pick. They were in line for the 17th selection until both the Diamondbacks and Orioles signed free agents which required them to forfeit their first-round draft pick, thrusting the Twins up two more spots. They will come back on the clock with the 56th pick, their regular second-round pick, before finishing out their night with back-to-back picks in the Comp B round at 73 and 74. They were awarded the 73rd pick for the second consecutive year as winners of the one of the twelve Competitive Balance Lottery picks. Because they failed to sign last year’s choice, Kyle Cody, they receive the 74th pick this year.

On Friday, the Twins first choice will be 93rd overall. They’ll be on the clock every thirty picks after that for the duration of the draft.

So who will the Twins select this evening with the 15th overall pick this year?

That - along with 14 picks before it - remains a great mystery.

Over the last few weeks, at Twins Daily, we run several articles highlighting a number of players that the Twins could take:

We started our coverage by looking at some local players that could be drafted.Our specific looks at players started with flamethrowing Zack Burdi, younger brother of Nick, and Miami Hurricane backstop Zack Collins.

But then a funny thing happened, all heck broke loose. Boards started doing somersaults and players, mostly prep pitchersstarted coming out with giant bonus demands. We profiled one more specific bat, prep outfielder Alex Kirilloff. It really became increasingly difficult to not only peg who the Twins would take, but also what would happen before then. The last profile included a handful of college pitchers, some of whom entered the discussion very late.

In addition to that, I treated readers to a 10-round Twins-only mock draft and a look at how I’d stack my own Draft Board if you threw bonus demands out the window.

Oh… and the mocks. I projected the Twins to take Forrest Whitley on May 11th in Mock Draft v. 1. On May 29th, I switched course and had the Twins drafting Justin Dunn in Mock Draft v. 2. My third and final mock draft was posted this morning.

One thing that I need to continue to note is how important it is for you to understand how teams go about manipulating their draft money. The teams drafting at the top - the Phillies, Reds, Braves - and other teams with multiple picks (like the Padres) will be working on cutting deals right up until the draft starts. This doesn’t only mean with their first pick, but also with later picks. When this happens, agents will start floating their price tags out to teams, who shy away from those players, essentially making them unavailable to teams though they haven’t already been picked.

A potential example that I’ve used is with the Braves, Ian Anderson and pick 40. The Braves love Anderson, but he’s not going to sign for $1.6 million, which is what pick 40 is worth. The Braves also have the third overall choice, which is worth $6.5 million. Their likely choice there, Corey Ray, isn’t going to need that full allotment to sign. So what the Braves could do is offer each player $4 million. They would draft Ray at 3. Anderson’s agent would let all teams know it will cost them $4 million to sign his client and - after a tumble - guess who’s available the next time the Braves select? The Braves, who are just one example, could get even more creative because they have three more picks in the top 80.

Long story short, it means if the Twins lined up their favorite 15 players, it could come time for them to pick and all 15 of those players could either already be picked or just be “unavailable.” The players that will fit into that “unavailable” category will be primarily high-school pitchers.
The MLB Draft is such an important time for MLB teams. The Twins will select 42 players to add talent to the organization. In any given year, if two or three of the picks become useful big leaguers, the draft was a huge success.

We encourage you to keep close to Twins Daily for more updates. We will post articles for each of Thursday’s picks. On Friday, I’ll be posting all of the picks and adding thoughts throughout the day. (So keep pounding that refresh button.) Saturday will be more of the same, with picks coming - and you refreshing - more rapidly.

But we don’t expect you to make TwinsDaily.com your only priority on draft weekend. We also want you to tune in to KFAN (100.3 FM or online or on iHeartRadio) on Friday night at 7pm for a special radio broadcast that I’m calling Guru and the Geek. John Bonnes and I will be in studio discussing the first 10 round (12 picks) and might even have a special guest or two.
It's going to be a full, fun, busy three days here at Twins Daily. Use this thread to discuss rumors throughout the day. Even more fun, post below your thoughts on who will be taken with each of the top 5 or 10 picks.

And, in all seriousness, check out some of the best league-wide draft sites that exist: BaseballAmerica.com’s draft coverage is outstanding. Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo team up at MLB Pipeline to rival BA’s coverage. Keith Law isn’t free at ESPN, but if you have an Insider account, you can read all sorts of good stuff. You can find a lot of information on prep players at Perfect Game.

Enjoy the conversation. Enjoy the hope. Don’t hate all the relievers (again). Just kidding.

Maybe.

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#2 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 09 June 2016 - 06:45 AM

The Twins have the money to do something similar if they wanted.I'll be disappointed after tonight if they have 1 HS guy and 3 college guys. 


#3 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 09 June 2016 - 07:11 AM

We have 4 picks today worth just under 6 million.I'm really hoping the Twins walk away with 3 HS guys and punt one of the picks on a college guy that will sign cheaply.I'm probably being a tad too optimistic there, but I'll be disappointed if they end up with 3 college guys, especially given how weak the college bats are. Only exception would be if Zach Collins fell to 15.That bat is good, though he's going to need minor league time to become a major league receiver.

 

Guys I'm watching:Collins obviously.I'd like one of the HS prep pitchers in the first round if Collins doesn't fall.Don't really care which one. I'll be watching Ben Roverdt and Cooper Johnson.My preference is for the former, but it is possible he's gone by 56.That might be an interesting strategy if they have a deal cut with a guy like Manning, who now has a high price tag.Take Ben at 1-15 for 1.X or something like that with Manning at 56 for around 3.Grab an easier sign HS guy and punt on one of the last picks today with a college guy that goes for way under slot.

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#4 tobi0040

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Posted 09 June 2016 - 07:16 AM

Jeremy,

Unfortunately I think to you are using more creativity amd strategy than the Twins war room.
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#5 Jeremy Nygaard

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Posted 09 June 2016 - 08:06 AM

 

We have 4 picks today worth just under 6 million.I'm really hoping the Twins walk away with 3 HS guys and punt one of the picks on a college guy that will sign cheaply.I'm probably being a tad too optimistic there, but I'll be disappointed if they end up with 3 college guys, especially given how weak the college bats are. Only exception would be if Zach Collins fell to 15.That bat is good, though he's going to need minor league time to become a major league receiver.

 

Guys I'm watching:Collins obviously.I'd like one of the HS prep pitchers in the first round if Collins doesn't fall.Don't really care which one. I'll be watching Ben Roverdt and Cooper Johnson.My preference is for the former, but it is possible he's gone by 56.That might be an interesting strategy if they have a deal cut with a guy like Manning, who now has a high price tag.Take Ben at 1-15 for 1.X or something like that with Manning at 56 for around 3.Grab an easier sign HS guy and punt on one of the last picks today with a college guy that goes for way under slot.

 

The Twins could manipulate their money a little bit, but nothing like the teams with the largest pools. If you want to consider it - and I don't think the Twins will - you need to forget about the upper echelon guys completely. The deals you're cutting with Rortvedt and Manning would be for significantly less money than the deals they'd get.

 

I don't hate the idea. But if you're one of a half dozen teams trying to do the same thing, and you have the least amount of money to play with, you're going to be making it up with Zack Larson-type picks in Round 19, not high-school All-Americans early in the draft.


#6 J_Dobs

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Posted 09 June 2016 - 08:07 AM

A potential example that I’ve used is with the Braves, Ian Anderson and pick 40. The Braves love Anderson, but he’s not going to sign for $1.6 million, which is what pick 40 is worth. The Braves also have the third overall choice, which is worth $6.5 million. Their likely choice there, Corey Ray, isn’t going to need that full allotment to sign. So what the Braves could do is offer each player $4 million. They would draft Ray at 3. Anderson’s agent would let all teams know it will cost them $4 million to sign his client and - after a tumble - guess who’s available the next time the Braves select? The Braves, who are just one example, could get even more creative because they have three more picks in the top 80.

 

 

So I was wondering about this, Is there no rules written to prevent this? It seems like this could be a big deal. Much like the Astros last year with Daz Cameron, it prevents teams from getting a talented player because they basically got a verbal agreement in place.


#7 markos

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Posted 09 June 2016 - 08:09 AM

 

We have 4 picks today worth just under 6 million.I'm really hoping the Twins walk away with 3 HS guys and punt one of the picks on a college guy that will sign cheaply.I'm probably being a tad too optimistic there, but I'll be disappointed if they end up with 3 college guys, especially given how weak the college bats are. Only exception would be if Zach Collins fell to 15.That bat is good, though he's going to need minor league time to become a major league receiver.

 

Guys I'm watching:Collins obviously.I'd like one of the HS prep pitchers in the first round if Collins doesn't fall.Don't really care which one. I'll be watching Ben Roverdt and Cooper Johnson.My preference is for the former, but it is possible he's gone by 56.That might be an interesting strategy if they have a deal cut with a guy like Manning, who now has a high price tag.Take Ben at 1-15 for 1.X or something like that with Manning at 56 for around 3.Grab an easier sign HS guy and punt on one of the last picks today with a college guy that goes for way under slot.

That might work in a vacuum, but every other team is thinking along the same lines, and many of them are in much better position than the Twins to be creative. Right now I think the odds of any top-30 talent dropping to #56 is exceedingly small. Too many teams have multiple picks between #15 and #56:

Dodgers (3: 20,32,36)*

Cardinals (3: 23,33,34)*

Padres (3: 24,25,48)*

Mets (2: 19, 31)

Pirates (2: 22,41)

White Sox (2: 26,49)*

Orioles (2: 27,54)

Nationals (2: 28,29)

Reds (2: 35,43)*

A's (2: 37,47)*

Rockies (2: 38,45)*

Diamondbacks (2: 39,52)

Braves (2: 40,44)*

 

The *s above all have larger bonus pools to play with as well. And this list doesn't even include the Phillies, who are going to have a ton of leftover money to spend at #42. 

 

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#8 Mike Sixel

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Posted 09 June 2016 - 08:12 AM

 

So I was wondering about this, Is there no rules written to prevent this? It seems like this could be a big deal. Much like the Astros last year with Daz Cameron, it prevents teams from getting a talented player because they basically got a verbal agreement in place.

 

Nothing prevents a team from drafting a guy.....even if he says he wants more money than they can pay. And no, there are no rules against this.

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#9 Jeremy Nygaard

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Posted 09 June 2016 - 08:14 AM

 

Jeremy,

Unfortunately I think to you are using more creativity amd strategy than the Twins war room.

 

I can assure you the guys in the room are smarter, more creative and more strategic than I am.

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#10 Jeremy Nygaard

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Posted 09 June 2016 - 08:16 AM

 

So I was wondering about this, Is there no rules written to prevent this? It seems like this could be a big deal. Much like the Astros last year with Daz Cameron, it prevents teams from getting a talented player because they basically got a verbal agreement in place.

 

Hopefully this is a loophole the Twins can exploit next draft season*.

 

*The CBA is going to change and try to prevent things like this from happening, most likely.


#11 tobi0040

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Posted 09 June 2016 - 08:16 AM

Nothing prevents a team from drafting a guy.....even if he says he wants more money than they can pay. And no, there are no rules against this.


Nope. Nothing does. It would simply be calling someone's bluff. And he is faced with take x now or go to college in three years. You could also do a little homewwork on the family and how much money they have. It would take a ton of work though. You need their address and the ability to go onto zillow.

#12 tobi0040

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Posted 09 June 2016 - 08:17 AM

I can assure you the guys in the room are smarter, more creative and more strategic than I am.


Says the guy who relies on them for information!
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#13 ThejacKmp

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Posted 09 June 2016 - 08:24 AM

This may be stupid but since an unsigned pick becomes a compensatory pick one slot lower in the next year's draft, is there any point to the Twins saying, "Screw you Braves, we're picking Ian Anderson 15th and offering him $2 million"? Ian Anderson then has to decide if he wants to be in the majors or go to junior college and wait a year. The Twins either get the same pick next year (small loss of a season of development but not too awful - especially for a loaded system like the Twins who don't desperately need the infusion of talent right away) or get a very good prospect who agrees to sign for $2 million because he wants to start his pro career. And they screw over the Braves.

 

Perhaps the reason not to do this is it hurts your reputation with prospects and agents? Though I can't see how, it's gaming the system the same way the Braves would be.


#14 Mike Sixel

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Posted 09 June 2016 - 08:32 AM

Every thread this is asked. In every thread I say that KLAW and others that have worked in a FO say this is not a good strategy, and not good for a career, since you may not be the one making the choice in a year.....

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#15 Carneal&Gordon

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Posted 09 June 2016 - 08:39 AM

Jeremy, Any chance "Guru and the Geek" will be available via podcast? Thanks for all the info
Hi Everybody...

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#16 operation mindcrime

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Posted 09 June 2016 - 08:59 AM

We never manipulate anything. Buxton, Stewart, Gordon and Jay all signed for slot. With our luck the new CBA will happen this winter and we'll get screwed!

#17 prouster

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Posted 09 June 2016 - 09:06 AM

There are some intriguing arms that could be available at 15, but I'd like to see the Twins take a position player. Pitchers are simply too hard to predict, what with the high frequency of TJ surgery, other injuries, and just plain flaming out. I think quality pitching prospects can be acquired in ways other than the draft, namely through trades and international signings. This seems to be the route the Cubs have taken the last few years, and it has certainly paid dividends.

 

Some players I'm particularly interested in that could be on the board at 15:

 

Zack Collins - C, University of Miami (Powerful catcher, numbers and profile remind me of Kyle Schwarber, the chance of him being on the board at 15 seems slight)

 

Blake Rutherford - OF, CA High School (Highly touted, considered the best HS bat in the draft until recently, signability concerns could cause him to slip to the mid-late first round)

 

Delvin Perez - SS, Puerto Rico High School (Very toolsy, considered by some to be best position player in the draft, garners comparisons to Carlos Correa, fluid defender with little concern of ability to play SS at MLB level, hit tool is underdeveloped, one of the younger players in the draft, recently failed a drug test for unnamed PED, will almost certainly be available at 15)

 

Alex Kirilloff - OF, Pennsylvania High School (Most here know a bit about him, will likely be on the board when the Twins pick)

 

Will Craig - 3B/1B, Wake Forest (Smooth right-handed swing with tons of power, this guy can mash, will likely be available at 15)

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#18 markos

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Posted 09 June 2016 - 09:07 AM

 

Every thread this is asked. In every thread I say that KLAW and others that have worked in a FO say this is not a good strategy, and not good for a career, since you may not be the one making the choice in a year.....

But at the same time, I don't think I've seen anyone argue that you need to be 100% certain that a pick will sign. And there is some evidence over the years (Pirates with Appel, Blue Jays with Beede and Bickford) that teams will make a pick even though there are sign-ability questions.  

 

Basically, my thoughts are this. First, it is unanimously agreed that

1) top picks contain almost all of the value in a draft, so punting a top pick loses a ton of value.

2) the next-season compensation pick recoups some, but not all, of the lost value.

So that is the downside, and why everyone agrees that it isn't smart to intentionally punt a pick. The upside is that in certain cases you might get a better player than you otherwise would if you needed to be 100% certain that he would sign.

 

How the upside and downside relate depends entirely on the specific situation: the probability that the player is bluffing, the talent difference between the players, etc.

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#19 tobi0040

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Posted 09 June 2016 - 09:08 AM

If Groome is a 1-1 talent in this draft, I would completely punt on my second round pick and take him at 15. They could draft me and pay me $20k.

Look at this list of second round picks. If you want to find a player with a career WAR over 21 you need to go back 33 years to Frank Viola. Chargois is a hot prospect and you have some decent role players here. But if you did a study to weigh the value of 1-1 versus 15 and 56 I am guessing 1-1 comes out by a wide margin, even if you start with the premise that this is not an Alex Rodriguez, Bryce Harper type 1-1 year. If you start at 2009 and go back, you have 50 second round picks. 42 of the 50 (84%) have a career WAR of less than five.

To be quite honest, I would rather see the Twins try something like this and fail than not to try at all.

http://www.baseball-...pe=franch_round
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#20 d-mac

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Posted 09 June 2016 - 09:09 AM

 

There are some intriguing arms that could be available at 15, but I'd like to see the Twins take a position player. Pitchers are simply too hard to predict, what with the high frequency of TJ surgery, other injuries, and just plain flaming out. I think quality pitching prospects can be acquired in ways other than the draft, namely through trades and international signings. This seems to be the route the Cubs have taken the last few years, and it has certainly paid dividends.

 

Some players I'm particularly interested in that could be on the board at 15:

 

Zack Collins - C, University of Miami (Powerful catcher, numbers and profile remind me of Kyle Schwarber, the chance of him being on the board at 15 seems slight)

 

Blake Rutherford - OF, CA High School (Highly touted, considered the best HS bat in the draft until recently, signability concerns could cause him to slip to the mid-late first round)

 

Delvin Perez - SS, Puerto Rico High School (Very toolsy, considered by some to be best position player in the draft, garners comparisons to Carlos Correa, fluid defender with little concern of ability to play SS at MLB level, hit tool is underdeveloped, one of the younger players in the draft, recently failed a drug test for unnamed PED, will almost certainly be available at 15)

 

Alex Kirilloff - OF, Pennsylvania High School (Most here know a bit about him, will likely be on the board when the Twins pick)

 

Will Craig - 3B/1B, Wake Forest (Smooth right-handed swing with tons of power, this guy can mash, will likely be available at 15)

 

I think all of these guys would be fine- Except I'm not a big fan of Rutherford- he's already 19 and he developed physically earlier than his competition and has shown much of a year-over-year improvement. 

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4-27-2016: El dia de La Maquina




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