Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.
Photo

Article: Twins Daily Draft Preview: The Board

mlb draft draft justin dunn alex kirilloff dakota hudson
  • Please log in to reply
20 replies to this topic

#1 Jeremy Nygaard

Jeremy Nygaard

    Twins Draft Czar

  • Twins Database Managers
  • 3,058 posts

Posted 06 June 2016 - 09:31 AM

In previous years, instead of me putting my own board together, I tried to gather enough information to accurately predict how the Twins would stack their board. While I’ll never know how accurate I was, my opinion is that I wasn’t too far off.This year is different. Obviously, when the Twins are picking fourth, fifth or sixth, there are only so many players and combinations of them that can go before the Twins were picking. Drafting at 15 makes things more difficult. Having a handful of players whose signability is being questioned makes it infinitely more difficult.

Even as the draft approaches - it’s only three days away! - it’s being described as being a “long ways away.” Seems ridiculous, right? Not really. There are still a number of high school pitchers who have unknown price tags. We heard last week that the Twins weren’t going to be able to get Manning done with their draft slot at 15. It’s entirely possible that we could be adding more prep pitchers into that category as the week progresses. Why is that happening? Because the teams at the top of the draft - the Phillies, Braves and Reds - have so much money that they can spread it out among their first few picks, essentially taking players off the board before they’re selected.

So even if the Twins have settled on their Top 15, there’s a strong chance that none of those players are actually “available” when the Twins come to the podium. Make sense?

What you’re going to see below is not a guess at how the Twins have their board stacked, but instead how I would stack my own board… with the caveat that whichever player is drafted will sign for slot at pick 15. I know that’s an impossibility, but without knowing every player that has a high price tag, this is the best way to fairly assess the talent.

1) A.J. Puk, LHP, Florida. I’m not totally sold on Puk - especially after his last start - but you could do worse than taking a left-handed pitcher who throws mid-90s. The combination of ceiling and floor makes Puk the relatively easy choice to take first overall.

2) Jason Groome, LHP, New Jersey HS. I debated Groome vs Pint as top prep pitcher, but Groome’s curveball and the fact he’s young for his class gives him a ceiling of an ace-starter and there are never enough of them.

3) Kyle Lewis, OF, Mercer. Sure, he hasn’t played against the best competition and that magnifies some of the questions about his bat, but his no one can match his ceiling as a hitter and he appears athletic enough to stay in center field.

4) Riley Pint, RHP, Kansas HS. It’s hard to look at a prep pitcher who throws 100+ and not assume he’s going to need Tommy John surgery sometime soon. For me, it’s hard to look at Pint and not think he’s going to be Max Scherzer in a handful of years. If Pint was a little more consistent with his breaking stuff, I’d rank him above Groome.

5) Corey Ray, OF, Louisville. Ray doesn’t have Lewis’s loud power tool. In fact, he lacks any significant carrying tool (unless you want to count his speed). What Ray offers, though, is enough with the bat and glove to project him with an MLB floor, which isn’t easy to do.

6) Nick Senzel, 3B, Tennessee. Senzel’s calling card is his hit tool and there is a lack of that quality in this draft. Good enough to stick on the left side of the infield, Senzel is another high-floor, top-10 pick.

7) Mickey Moniak, OF, California HS. Moniak has the chops to stay in center field and has the hit tool to project as an everyday player, though he’ll probably not add much power as he develops.

8) Braxton Garrett, LHP, Alabama HS. Garrett is the safest of all the prep arms, equipped with a MLB-ready curveball already. The Twins would love him at 15, if he’s available.

9) Delvin Perez, SS, Puerto Rico HS. Young but unfairly compared to Carlos Correa, Perez may have the highest ceiling in the whole class. Will he hit though?

10) Justin Dunn, RHP, Boston College. People are going to do the “another reliever” thing with Dunn if the Twins pick him, but his electric arm is quickly becoming a favorite of mine. For being a relatively fresh arm (that can run it up to 99 mph), he offers a high floor to go with an extremely high ceiling.

11) Ian Anderson, RHP, New York HS. I tried not to dock Anderson for his signability questions and when lined up with Dunn, I have them ranked very closely. Dunn, though smaller, gave me less durability concerns than Anderson, which is why I rank Anderson one spot lower.

12) Alex Kirilloff, OF, Pennsylvania HS. Kirilloff projects to be a good hitter with potential plus power and a good enough arm to play right field. Though I’d always err on the side of pitching, Kirilloff is one hitter who may be on the board at 15 that I’m sold on.

13) Dakota Hudson, P, Mississippi State. I had come around on Hudson before he struggled in his last start. He battles with command, but I’ve been told he may have the best “stuff” in the draft. My concern is the Twins would try to clean up the delivery in hopes that it will improve command, but instead it will cause his “stuff” to play down.

14) Blake Rutherford, OF, California HS. Rutherford is a year older than most other prep players and appears to be physically mature, so there isn’t as much upside as you’d typically get with a high schooler. There’s still a lot of things to like in his bat - I’m just not as sold as some others.

15) Matt Manning, RHP, California HS. I always feel like there’s more to unlock in multi-sport starts and Manning, who is committed to play both baseball and hoops at Loyola Marymount, has plenty of raw ability already, hitting 98 mph with his fastball. I believe Manning has a deal with the Padres.

16) Cal Quantrill, RHP, Stanford. Quantrill missed the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, but was a legitimate Top 5 candidate before the injury. He has the upside on a #1 starter and likely won’t make his professional debut until Spring Training 2017, nearly 23 months following his procedure.

17) Zack Collins, C, Miami. Collins has the bat to profile as a big-leaguer, but there are questions about his defensive home. He’ll need time to develop behind the plate, but teams might want to push his bat through their system quicker, shifting him to a corner, likely first base.

18) Zack Burdi, RHP, Louisville. Guys who can throw triple-digits and profile with a clean enough delivery have to be considered first-round picks. While Burdi’s ultimate home is probably in the bullpen, he’s an intriguing option for teams in the middle of the first round.

19) Joey Wentz, LHP, Kansas HS. It’s hard not to factor signability into ranking Wentz, who is committed to Virginia. He’s backed off the mid-90s that he was throwing early in his season, but still offers the upside of a front-end starter.

20) Forrest Whitley, RHP, Texas HS. The big-bodied Texan beat out a number of college pitchers for the last spot on this list. There are conditioning questions, but he’s got present ability that projects to play up as he continues to work his body into shape.

Just missed: Cody Sedlock, RHP, Illinois and T.J. Zeuch, RHP, Pittsburgh

Other draft-related articles:
Local Profiles
Zack Burdi
Zack Collins
Prep Arms
10-round mock

What does your board look like?

Click here to view the article
  • gunnarthor, nicksaviking and Einstein1 like this

#2 operation mindcrime

operation mindcrime

    Minnesota Twins

  • Members
  • 2,677 posts

Posted 06 June 2016 - 10:15 AM

I'm excited for Thursday! I hope we get the best player available. I hope he develops 80 grades on all of his pitches or tools. I also hope he's a fifteen time all star & he wins multiple MVP's along the way to the hall of fame!
  • gunnarthor, James, Dman and 1 other like this

#3 d-mac

d-mac

    Rochester Red Wings

  • Members
  • 1,356 posts
  • LocationJust say no to Rob Antony

Posted 06 June 2016 - 10:48 AM

If it were up to me running the draft, I'd go Collins (give him a chance to stick behind the plate), or go under slot with Will Craig. The Twins need guys with good plate discipline with the ability to hit for average. There are very few of them in the system.

 

As far as pitching goes- I like Garrett, Hudson, and Anderson in that order. If the Twins draft any pitcher other than those 3 I will be very disappointed- There just isn't enough upside in this draft to justify the risk of taking any other pitchers (assuming Puk, Groome, and Pint go in the top 10) in the 1st round. I'll be very angry if they take another reliever in the first round.

 

I also don't like most of the top high school bats this year. I'd be ok with Kirilloff, I cold weather high school bats- but I just think Kirilloff's swing is too long and he'll have a hard time squaring up the high heat- A common issue with many of the Twins' hitters. 

4-27-2016: El dia de La Maquina


#4 gunnarthor

gunnarthor

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 9,825 posts

Posted 06 June 2016 - 11:14 AM

I'm a big fan of Hudson's so I'd be very happy with him at 15.  

 

So, my understanding is that the Twins could go 5% over budget (just over 407k) so, if they signed everyone for slot, they could give #15 a grand total of just under 3.25m (or spread it around a bit more).  


#5 tobi0040

tobi0040

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 5,693 posts

Posted 06 June 2016 - 11:20 AM

So basically you think if Garrett is available we take him. Unless one of the top 7 are there for some reason right?

I feel like if Garrett slips past other teams, the Twins won't be the one to take the plunge. The Tigers and CHW at 9-10 for example

#6 markos

markos

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,401 posts

Posted 06 June 2016 - 11:53 AM

 

As far as pitching goes- I like Garrett, Hudson, and Anderson in that order. If the Twins draft any pitcher other than those 3 I will be very disappointed- There just isn't enough upside in this draft to justify the risk of taking any other pitchers (assuming Puk, Groome, and Pint go in the top 10) in the 1st round. I'll be very angry if they take another reliever in the first round.

Just out of curiosity, what do you have against Dunn and Manning?


#7 Hrbowski

Hrbowski

    Minnesota Twins

  • Members
  • 2,543 posts
  • LocationA small town city

Posted 06 June 2016 - 12:01 PM

 

If it were up to me running the draft, I'd go Collins (give him a chance to stick behind the plate), or go under slot with Will Craig. The Twins need guys with good plate discipline with the ability to hit for average. There are very few of them in the system.

Craig won't sign under slot.

  • Bob Sacamento likes this

It is better to keep your mouth closed and let people think you are a fool than to open it and remove all doubt. - Mark Twain


#8 Thrylos

Thrylos

    Twins World Champions in 2019

  • Members
  • 10,090 posts
  • LocationLehigh Valley, PA, USA
  • Twitter: thrylos98

Posted 06 June 2016 - 12:16 PM

The one issue I have with Dakota Hudson is that I am not sure that he projects as a major league starter because he has only two (albeit both above average) pitches and has command issues.  Might get the change up in the pros or might not, but the command issues have to get fixed as well.  Definitely a back of the pen guy for sure, which might or might not be fine at #15.

 

The guy I like for the Twins more and more is LHP Eric Lauer who has been flying under the radar at Kent State.  4 pitches with above average to plus command and control, great mechanics and durability, a close to plus slider and he fits a need. Tom Glavine is a pretty good comparable for the style of pitcher he is. Pretty high floor and decent ceiling (number 2 or number 3 starter.) Pretty sure he will be available at #15, not so sure that he will last until the Twins' second pick... Interesting to see.

-----
Blogging Twins since 2007 at The Tenth Inning Stretch
http://tenthinningst...h.blogspot.com/
twitter: @thrylos98

#9 gunnarthor

gunnarthor

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 9,825 posts

Posted 06 June 2016 - 12:19 PM

 

The one issue I have with Dakota Hudson is that I am not sure that he projects as a major league starter because he has only two (albeit both above average) pitches and has command issues.  Might get the change up in the pros or might not, but the command issues have to get fixed as well.  Definitely a back of the pen guy for sure, which might or might not be fine at #15.

 

The guy I like for the Twins more and more is LHP Eric Lauer who has been flying under the radar at Kent State.  4 pitches with above average to plus command and control, great mechanics and durability, a close to plus slider and he fits a need. Tom Glavine is a pretty good comparable for the style of pitcher he is. Pretty high floor and decent ceiling (number 2 or number 3 starter.) Pretty sure he will be available at #15, not so sure that he will last until the Twins' second pick... Interesting to see.

Yeah, he could be an interesting pick.  From mlbpipeline:

 

"Lauer has four effective pitches and mixes them well. His best offerings are a low-90s fastball that reaches 94 mph and features some cutting action and nice downhill plane, and a solid 78-83 mph slider. Lauer also possesses a mid-70s curveball and a changeup with some sink and fade

Lauer's athletic, effortless delivery allows him to repeat his mechanics and throw quality strikes. While he doesn't have a true out pitch or a lofty ceiling, he may have a higher floor than any left-hander in the 2016 Draft. Lauer projects as a mid-rotation starter."


#10 Dman

Dman

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,616 posts

Posted 06 June 2016 - 12:31 PM

I am hoping there is value at our slot for a High school pitcher. Given the way our pitching is stacking up I think that makes the most sense at least long term.  I also wouldn't mind a high school bat there but not sure the value will be there either.

 

It seems like the value will be college pitchers where we pick but who knows how the draft will go. I am OK with a college pitcher there but we could have quite a glut of starters in High A and AA next year.  Not a horrible situation but not ideal either.

 

Not in love with a lot of hitters for pick 15, but would like to use second round picks on hitters if value is there as our system is in need of better hitting at most all positions except maybe SS.

 


#11 Jeremy Nygaard

Jeremy Nygaard

    Twins Draft Czar

  • Twins Database Managers
  • 3,058 posts

Posted 06 June 2016 - 02:33 PM

The one issue I have with Dakota Hudson is that I am not sure that he projects as a major league starter because he has only two (albeit both above average) pitches and has command issues.  Might get the change up in the pros or might not, but the command issues have to get fixed as well.  Definitely a back of the pen guy for sure, which might or might not be fine at #15.
 
The guy I like for the Twins more and more is LHP Eric Lauer who has been flying under the radar at Kent State.  4 pitches with above average to plus command and control, great mechanics and durability, a close to plus slider and he fits a need. Tom Glavine is a pretty good comparable for the style of pitcher he is. Pretty high floor and decent ceiling (number 2 or number 3 starter.) Pretty sure he will be available at #15, not so sure that he will last until the Twins' second pick... Interesting to see.


Lauer seems like the most anti-Thrylos/pro-Twins-of-2011 draft picks that's available. While I have nothing against him personally, I'd prefer to throw $3 million at a guy with upside.
  • Rigby and d-mac like this

#12 tobi0040

tobi0040

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 5,693 posts

Posted 06 June 2016 - 06:49 PM

I know it is against Twins philosophy. But I would be tempted to take a college pitcher or catcher.
  • d-mac likes this

#13 dgwills

dgwills

    Member

  • Members
  • 589 posts

Posted 06 June 2016 - 07:29 PM

If the Twin's were to pass on Collins I'd be pissed. I'm not as worried about him sticking at catcher though. They probably will not get the chance to draft him anyways. Outside of that I'd take the pitcher with the highest ceiling. At fifteen they're not going to be a perfect prospect, but that's fine with me. Even if it's another reliever.

  • gunnarthor likes this

#14 Pitz

Pitz

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 444 posts

Posted 06 June 2016 - 07:51 PM

If the draft is reworked in the new CBA, when do those changes take effect? Would next year's draft be different or would it take another year before changes are implemented?

Just wondering if the Twins shouldn't just draft a guy that has slid because he appears to have an overslot agreement already in place. Offer him slot, take it or leave it, and if he leaves it take the 16th pick and additional pool money/flexibility next season. I suppose it's unlikely with job security likely being tenuous.

  • SarasotaBill and d-mac like this

#15 diehardtwinsfan

diehardtwinsfan

    G.O.A.T.

  • Twins Mods
  • 14,158 posts
  • Locationthe charred ruins of BYTO

Posted 07 June 2016 - 05:01 AM

I heard some speculation that the new CBA would have a draft lottery.Not a fan of that personally. Also not sure I'm a fan of playing chicken with some kid with the 15th pick.If they wanted to infuse some younger HS talent into the pool, that would likely kill it as the flexibility to do something like that gets more difficult in the later rounds.

  • gunnarthor likes this

#16 d-mac

d-mac

    Rochester Red Wings

  • Members
  • 1,356 posts
  • LocationJust say no to Rob Antony

Posted 07 June 2016 - 08:55 AM

 

Just out of curiosity, what do you have against Dunn and Manning?

 

Dunn is a reliever- IRC, one that wasn't regarded as a potential starter until this year- unlike Jay, who was always seen as a potential starter throughout his college career- plus his numbers are nowhere near dominate like Jay was in college. I typically don't like college players with late helium in a weak draft.

 

I would not be as frustrated with Manning- I am just not a fan of taking prep arms in the first round that get by by blowing high schoolers away with high heat and haven't develop secondary pitches, player development will have to develop two additional pitches and teach him how to pitch. He's not going to be able to attack pro hitters the same way. I have my questions with the Twins' player development being able to do all that. It's just not a risk I see that's worth taking in the first round.

4-27-2016: El dia de La Maquina


#17 d-mac

d-mac

    Rochester Red Wings

  • Members
  • 1,356 posts
  • LocationJust say no to Rob Antony

Posted 07 June 2016 - 08:56 AM

 

Craig won't sign under slot.

 

Are you his agent?

 

A college bat with no defensive position that most mocks have going in the mid-20's. Sounds like we could get him for under slot at 15.

4-27-2016: El dia de La Maquina


#18 d-mac

d-mac

    Rochester Red Wings

  • Members
  • 1,356 posts
  • LocationJust say no to Rob Antony

Posted 07 June 2016 - 09:06 AM

 

The one issue I have with Dakota Hudson is that I am not sure that he projects as a major league starter because he has only two (albeit both above average) pitches and has command issues.  Might get the change up in the pros or might not, but the command issues have to get fixed as well.  Definitely a back of the pen guy for sure, which might or might not be fine at #15.

 

The guy I like for the Twins more and more is LHP Eric Lauer who has been flying under the radar at Kent State.  4 pitches with above average to plus command and control, great mechanics and durability, a close to plus slider and he fits a need. Tom Glavine is a pretty good comparable for the style of pitcher he is. Pretty high floor and decent ceiling (number 2 or number 3 starter.) Pretty sure he will be available at #15, not so sure that he will last until the Twins' second pick... Interesting to see.

 

I'd still rather have Hudson. The knock on him was his control as an undergrad. But he has really cut his walks in the Cape Cod and during his junior season. The SEC is one of- if not the top college baseball conference, the MAC, not so much. So the competition he is facing is much better. Plus, Lauer has almost 2.5x as many walks in the Cape Cod league in 3 fewer innings than Hudson, plus nearly identical BB/9 during his junior season to Hudson while facing far inferior competition. 

 

The stats don't back the eye test here.

4-27-2016: El dia de La Maquina


#19 d-mac

d-mac

    Rochester Red Wings

  • Members
  • 1,356 posts
  • LocationJust say no to Rob Antony

Posted 07 June 2016 - 10:50 AM

Jeremy, Has Cal Quatrill been discussed as an option for the Twins?

 

Also, have you heard anything related to catchers later in the draft? Okey, Rortvedt, Cumberland, Logan Ice, Will Smith, Jeremy Martinez?

 

I also see on MLB Pipeline that Ulysses Cantu and Nick Quintana are viewed as possible options behind the plate. Have you heard anything on that front?

4-27-2016: El dia de La Maquina


#20 ALessKosherScott

ALessKosherScott

    Member

  • Members
  • 498 posts

Posted 07 June 2016 - 11:06 AM

My real hope is that next year when we pick number 1 there's an undisputed number 1 pick.




Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: mlb draft, draft, justin dunn, alex kirilloff, dakota hudson