Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.

Subscribe to Twins Daily Email

Photo

Article: Projecting Returns

  • Please log in to reply
24 replies to this topic

#1 Seth Stohs

Seth Stohs

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 9,840 posts

Posted 24 July 2012 - 06:28 AM

You can view the page at http://www.twinsdail...jecting-Returns

#2 Fanatic Jack

Fanatic Jack

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 257 posts

Posted 24 July 2012 - 07:24 AM

Seth, You are dreaming if you believe the Twins get anything close to a big package for anybody other than Josh Willingham and he is off the table. I most likely am wrong but just dont have faith in Terry Ryan anymore. He clearly over played his hand and held on to some of these guys too long.

#3 DPJ

DPJ

    Banned

  • Banned
  • 636 posts

Posted 24 July 2012 - 07:32 AM

It appears that the going rate is a pitching prospect who ranks somewhere in the 30-60 range (likely a team's #1 or #2 prospect), along with a second prospect who ranks in that team's Top 10, and maybe even one more player who ranks outside the top ten but still has potential.

Hahahahahaha

#4 Brock Beauchamp

Brock Beauchamp

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 11,575 posts

Posted 24 July 2012 - 07:34 AM

Seth,

You are dreaming if you believe the Twins get anything close to a big package for anybody other than Josh Willingham and he is off the table. I most likely am wrong but just dont have faith in Terry Ryan anymore. He clearly over played his hand and held on to some of these guys too long.


There is still a week until the deadline. How has he held on to anything too long? It's up to contending teams to get serious about trading for help, not for teams out of contention to push players that may not be at their peak value. There are still over a half dozen teams out there that will react to the trades over the past few days and then probably overreact to compensate against division rivals. The trade season is barely getting rolling at this point.

I'd wait until 3pm on the 31st to judge Ryan's management of this deadline. Every year, most of the biggest deals happen in the final 48 hours of the deadline.

#5 J-Dog Dungan

J-Dog Dungan

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 660 posts

Posted 24 July 2012 - 07:38 AM

I think that if teams are wanting a "quality" (relative term) starting pitcher and relatively successful leadoff hitter and CF'er, they might give up more than they would this year because of the new playoff format.

#6 Thrylos

Thrylos

    Yes

  • Members
  • 5,217 posts
  • LocationLehigh Valley, PA, USA
  • Twitter: thrylos98

Posted 24 July 2012 - 07:44 AM

I still think that the Twins should be smart enough to package Liriano as Span for a team that is looking for a SP and a CF/leadoff hitter. THAT would maximize returns. Another little stated fact about both Liriano and Span, as far as trades are involved: They are lefties so they do carry a premium.
-----
Blogging Twins since 2007 at The Tenth Inning Stretch
http://tenthinningst...h.blogspot.com/
twitter: @thrylos98

#7 Brock Beauchamp

Brock Beauchamp

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 11,575 posts

Posted 24 July 2012 - 07:51 AM

I still think that the Twins should be smart enough to package Liriano as Span for a team that is looking for a SP and a CF/leadoff hitter. THAT would maximize returns.


Well, that entirely depends on the team in question and what they could offer for those two players.

But I don't necessarily disagree with your point. If a team has enough prospects to swing that deal, it could be a good one for the Twins.

#8 mike wants wins

mike wants wins

    Would Like to be More Positive

  • Members
  • 9,595 posts

Posted 24 July 2012 - 08:00 AM

Actually, most believe the new playoff format hurts the trade market. If you don't win your division, and you are in the WC, you are now only guaranteed 1 more game, and that game could be on the road. Compare that to the old days, when you were guaranteed multiple post season games, and at least one at home. That's a big income difference. I will reserve judgement on TR until the end of this deadline, but I have super, super low expectations.

What I just typed is probably an opinion, not a fact. I mean, I'm usually right, so you should maybe assume it is or will be a fact soon, but that's up to you. :) Also, I am NOT trying to convince anyone I am correct, I'm just talking here, not arguing.


#9 cr9617

cr9617

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 157 posts

Posted 24 July 2012 - 08:28 AM

I still think that the Twins should be smart enough to package Liriano as Span for a team that is looking for a SP and a CF/leadoff hitter. THAT would maximize returns. Another little stated fact about both Liriano and Span, as far as trades are involved: They are lefties so they do carry a premium.


That's a fine idea, except you have to identify a team that wants to take both guys, and be willing to pay for them. That eliminates most teams.

#10 johnnydakota

johnnydakota

    Banned

  • Banned
  • 1,498 posts

Posted 24 July 2012 - 08:45 AM

Well, that entirely depends on the team in question and what they could offer for those two players.

But I don't necessarily disagree with your point. If a team has enough prospects to swing that deal, it could be a good one for the Twins.


cincy... span ,liriano for hamilton,corcino and cingrani

#11 DaveW

DaveW

    <3 Mark Derosa <3

  • Members
  • 5,787 posts

Posted 24 July 2012 - 08:55 AM

cincy... span ,liriano for hamilton,corcino and cingrani


I would do that in a heartbeat. I doubt Cincy would though.

2014 lineup featuring Hamilton, Hicks, Mauer, Willingham, Arcia, Benson, Doumit, Plouffe would be drool inducing.

#12 DPJ

DPJ

    Banned

  • Banned
  • 636 posts

Posted 24 July 2012 - 09:03 AM

2014 lineup featuring Hamilton, Hicks, Mauer, Willingham, Arcia, Benson, Doumit, Plouffe would be drool inducing.


I drool over a lineup too that features 4 guys that have done nothing at the major league level.

#13 DaveW

DaveW

    <3 Mark Derosa <3

  • Members
  • 5,787 posts

Posted 24 July 2012 - 09:17 AM

I drool over a lineup too that features 4 guys that have done nothing at the major league level.


2014 at the very least they would be fast as hell and amazing defensively.

#14 DPJ

DPJ

    Banned

  • Banned
  • 636 posts

Posted 24 July 2012 - 09:23 AM

2014 at the very least they would be fast as hell and amazing defensively.


My pants are getting tight just thinking about it.

#15 notoriousgod71

notoriousgod71

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,215 posts

Posted 24 July 2012 - 09:38 AM

My pants are getting tight just thinking about it.


Rep.

#16 Shane Wahl

Shane Wahl

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 4,914 posts

Posted 24 July 2012 - 09:39 AM

I still think that the Twins should be smart enough to package Liriano as Span for a team that is looking for a SP and a CF/leadoff hitter. THAT would maximize returns. Another little stated fact about both Liriano and Span, as far as trades are involved: They are lefties so they do carry a premium.


See the Cincinnati Reds.

#17 jimbo92107

jimbo92107

    Señor Member

  • Members
  • 985 posts
  • LocationSan Diego

Posted 24 July 2012 - 09:39 AM

That's a fine idea, except you have to identify a team that wants to take both guys, and be willing to pay for them. That eliminates most teams.


A well-targeted package deal needs only one team as a partner. Also, you can offer a Liriano + Span deal at the same time that you market both players separately. If one of them goes, then you still have some value for the other. The package deal is out there as an option, and the team that would go for it would probably contact Terry Ryan on their own fairly early, before the opportunity disappears.

At the same time, I'd hate to see them both go. Span is such a solid player, and Liriano is getting better. I'm dismissing his latest outing as tension from all the trade rumors.

#18 DAM DC Twins Fans

DAM DC Twins Fans

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 558 posts

Posted 24 July 2012 - 11:41 AM

lets get real here. Free agency rentals have been doomed by the new agreement. To get a draft pick for Liriano Twins must offer him $12million which is DAM foolish. If they trade him, the new team gets no compensation. Until last night, Liriano was hot for once. Now back to normal. A team picking up Liriano gets him for 8-10 starts--thats it. No value in that. (Maybe for the Nats to replace soon to be shut down Strasberg). The Twins will get nothing for him thanks to the new agreement. As to Span, Willingham etc. Yes ask for a ton, if you get a top prospect like the Marlins did, go for it, if you dont, dont. The Twins have very little of value.

#19 nicksaviking

nicksaviking

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 5,502 posts

Posted 24 July 2012 - 11:57 AM

A Liriano/Span package should be about as similar as the Sanchez/Infante combo. Rental pitcher with a controlable top of the lineup bat, though Span's deal is cheaper and longer. While you're talking to the Reds, start dialing the Rangers.

#20 Seth Stohs

Seth Stohs

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 9,840 posts

Posted 24 July 2012 - 12:09 PM

Generally speaking, you get a LOT more in return by trading players individually. If they can get the above deal from Cincinnati, great (they couldn't). Liriano is maybe a step below Sanchez... but Span is light-years ahead of Infante.