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Trade Sano?

liriano trade
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#41 Oxtung

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Posted 23 July 2012 - 04:55 PM

Advanced metrics tell a different story. Also Morneau is 6/80, a far cry from 3/30.

Of the players you listed before, all would command 3/30 or more with no chance of putting together seasons comparable to liriano circa 2006 or 2010. Yes, Liriano is inconsistent but at 3/30 it would not be an albatross and could easily return a surplus value, where as a deal for Hamels / Greinke who would command something like 5 / 140 or more and very quickly turn into an albatrosszx

Returning to the original point, the best bargain is on younger better pitchers under team control for next 2-4 years, namely Hernandez and Price. This combined with a 3/30m liriano deal and a return to form from either Baker or Gibson, contributions from Pavano, Blackburn, Hendriks, et al. at the back, and you are better prepared for success 2013-2015 or longer, rather than putting all your eggs in the Sano basket and floundering at the fringe of the playoff picture as the White Sox .cca 2012.


You're right our Liriano talk is OT for this thread. I apologize to OP. I've responded to your Liriano statements in a more appropriate thread.

http://twinsdaily.co...ull=1#post36939

#42 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 23 July 2012 - 05:22 PM

Not sure if you're responding to me or not but if you are you are misinterpreting my post. I didn't say his stock HAS dropped. I said it is more likely to drop than to rise. So if you're going to trade him the time is now. It's a question of risk management. Yes, he has high upside. But as with all young prospects there is a VERY real chance he never fulfills that potential.


I was, and I'm not sure I agree with what you said in bold. Sano could (and quite possibly will) repeat in Beloit and would still be a very good propsect. The fact alone that he smacked 20 home runs there will have anyone drooling...

Oh, and on a separate note, the Twins should absolutely not trade Sano for Buerhle... Ryan should be dragged out to CF and summarily hanged if he tried to pull that off.

#43 Highabove

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Posted 23 July 2012 - 05:29 PM

Let me get this one straight. The Twins are trying to build up their Farm System by shipping off their top prospect, who by the way, is the only true power hitter in the Farm System. Do I have this right??

Edited by Highabove, 23 July 2012 - 05:58 PM.


#44 Oxtung

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Posted 23 July 2012 - 05:46 PM

I was, and I'm not sure I agree with what you said in bold. Sano could (and quite possibly will) repeat in Beloit and would still be a very good propsect. The fact alone that he smacked 20 home runs there will have anyone drooling...


Here are BA's top 10 prospects from 2002:

1. Josh Beckett, rhp, Marlins
2. Mark Prior, rhp, Cubs
3. Hank Blalock, 3b, Rangers
4. Sean Burroughs, 3b, Padres
5. Carlos Pena, 1b, Athletics
6. Juan Cruz, rhp, Cubs
7. Joe Mauer, c, Twins
8. Wilson Betemit, ss, Braves
9. Drew Henson, 3b, Yankees
10. Mark Teixeira, 3b, Rangers

Four of those panned out like you're expecting Sano to. 2002 isn't a fluke either. It's just the way of prospects. Most don't turn out. Go back and look you'll see that highly thought of prospects flame out all the time.

http://www.baseballa...s/all-time.html

#45 kab21

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Posted 23 July 2012 - 06:10 PM

and arguably a lesser prospect than OF Jorge Bonifacio (royals).


credibility lost.

Sano is a complete boom/bust prospect. You're right to have concerns but he's also a 19 yr old playing in full season ball with 80 (out of 80) power. it's also encouraging that he has a 2:1 K:BB ratio (he's not only striking out) and a .250 isoP in a pitcher's league. I have always thought that Twins fans overrate him but he's a really good prospect.

If the Twins were in a different place (competitive) then I would consider trading him for an ace that could put the team over the top. But they are awful and not even Felix Hernandez will make the difference.

#46 ScottyB

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Posted 23 July 2012 - 06:28 PM

Let me get this one straight. The Twins are trying to build up their Farm System by shipping off their top prospect, who by the way, is the only true power hitter in the Farm System.
Do I have this right??


This. Do we really want to trade a prospect with an 80 power rating on the 80-20 scale for a pitcher to help this current team? One veteran pitcher will not turn this team around this year or next not even Felix or Price, these guys would be a waste of money at this time.

Let's hope they are banking some money to bring in a veteran presence in 2015 when the next group of prospects - Sano, Rosario, Hicks, Arcia, etc will have more experience and can join Dozier, Plouffe, Mauer, Diamond, Hendricks, Perkins, Parmelee and Revere. Now is the time to trade veterans like Span, Liriano, Morneau and eventually in August Pavano and Capps. Use guys like Casilla and Valencia as sweeteners for trades now.

I personally would like to see Span traded to the Nats with Casilla for Lombo Jr., and 2 of Robbie Ray, Kylin Turnbull, and Daniel Rosenbaum. Lombo is young enough to start at 2B now, batting second after Revere and versatile enough to become an outstanding utility guy when Rosario is ready for 2B. Ray, Turnbull and Rosenbaum are 3 lefty starters due to be ready for the rotation in a couple of years.

#47 Willihammer

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Posted 23 July 2012 - 07:04 PM

This. Do we really want to... bring in a veteran presence in 2015 when the next group of prospects - Sano, Rosario, Hicks, Arcia, etc will have more experience and can join Dozier, Plouffe, Mauer, Diamond, Hendricks, Perkins, Parmelee and Revere. Now is the time to trade veterans like Span, Liriano, Morneau and eventually in August Pavano and Capps. Use guys like Casilla and Valencia as sweeteners for trades now.

I personally would like to see Span traded to the Nats with Casilla for Lombo Jr., and 2 of Robbie Ray, Kylin Turnbull, and Daniel Rosenbaum. Lombo is young enough to start at 2B now, batting second after Revere and versatile enough to become an outstanding utility guy when Rosario is ready for 2B. Ray, Turnbull and Rosenbaum are 3 lefty starters due to be ready for the rotation in a couple of years.

Count the assumptions in this post.

1. Sano, Rosario, Hicks, Arcia, etc will mature into big league above-average 3rd baseman, 2nd baseman, outfielder, and outfielder. Unlikely at best.

2. A speedy low-power outfield of Hicks, Arcia and Revere cuts it in 2015 AL.

3. The Nats don't pull a trade before the end of the year and, A. are still interested in Span despite his concussion issues, B. are shopping Lambordozzi, C. Span is a worse outfielder than one of Hicks, Arcia, Revere, etc. D. Lombo is a better utility guy than Casilla

4. The Nats are interested in soaping up Morneau's contract, and A. would additinonally trade prospects on top ie. 1 or more of Ray, Turnbull and Rosenbaum

That my friend adds up to a sandcastle in the sky. Things change faster than you may think. And the Nats are changing as fast as any team in the league. They need a CF but that is all you have accurately described, I think

#48 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 23 July 2012 - 07:52 PM

Here are BA's top 10 prospects from 2002:

1. Josh Beckett, rhp, Marlins
2. Mark Prior, rhp, Cubs
3. Hank Blalock, 3b, Rangers
4. Sean Burroughs, 3b, Padres
5. Carlos Pena, 1b, Athletics
6. Juan Cruz, rhp, Cubs
7. Joe Mauer, c, Twins
8. Wilson Betemit, ss, Braves
9. Drew Henson, 3b, Yankees
10. Mark Teixeira, 3b, Rangers

Four of those panned out like you're expecting Sano to. 2002 isn't a fluke either. It's just the way of prospects. Most don't turn out. Go back and look you'll see that highly thought of prospects flame out all the time.

http://www.baseballa...s/all-time.html



4 panned out (and a few more had some decent careers)... therefore, let's trade him for an overpriced pitcher on the downswing of his career... yeah, makes a lot of sense.

#49 spideyo

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Posted 23 July 2012 - 07:53 PM

If you are going to trade a top prospect, it'd be much wiser to trade Benson/Hicks/Arcia/Kepler. We have lots of depth in the OF, but not much for the IF.

#50 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 23 July 2012 - 07:56 PM

Count the assumptions in this post.

1. Sano, Rosario, Hicks, Arcia, etc will mature into big league above-average 3rd baseman, 2nd baseman, outfielder, and outfielder. Unlikely at best.

2. A speedy low-power outfield of Hicks, Arcia and Revere cuts it in 2015 AL.

3. The Nats don't pull a trade before the end of the year and, A. are still interested in Span despite his concussion issues, B. are shopping Lambordozzi, C. Span is a worse outfielder than one of Hicks, Arcia, Revere, etc. D. Lombo is a better utility guy than Casilla

4. The Nats are interested in soaping up Morneau's contract, and A. would additinonally trade prospects on top ie. 1 or more of Ray, Turnbull and Rosenbaum

That my friend adds up to a sandcastle in the sky. Things change faster than you may think. And the Nats are changing as fast as any team in the league. They need a CF but that is all you have accurately described, I think


1. You have a point here, though Hicks and Arcia are sitting in AA now and doing quite well, so you can argue they are much much more likely to succeed.
2. Hopefully, that is Hicks, Arcia, and Benson. It's speedy, and certainly not low power. Arcia looks like the real deal, and both Hicks and Benson will likely be 10-20 HR guys who might have a couple of 20+ seasons.
3. Span needs to be flipped for a pitcher (which I think you agree on)
4. I doubt anyone takes on Morneau this year and gives us something good... Morneau gets traded next season.

#51 Oxtung

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Posted 23 July 2012 - 08:00 PM

credibility lost.

...with 80 (out of 80) power...


Do you have a source for that?

#52 Mchans24

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Posted 23 July 2012 - 08:07 PM

This conversation is silly!! Let's take a look at Miguel Cabrera in minor leagues

http://www.thebaseba...=Miguel-Cabrera

He never put up Sano type power numbers, he did hit for a slightly higher average and struck out a little less.

I would trade him for Price or King Felix in a heartbeat as they are proven commodities that instantly improve a major weakness not only in the major leagues but in your entire system. TB and Seattle would be nuts to trade a number 1 big league pitcher for a A ball 3B/1B/Outfielder!!

#53 etspaceman

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Posted 23 July 2012 - 08:08 PM

This has to be a bit. Seriously? Trading your best prospect at his lowest trade value is not how you rebuild... at all. What are the Twins going to gain out of a 2 year rental? Are you that desperate to see some wins that you're willing to sacrifice your best prospect? On the glimmer of hope that somehow, this pitiful team wins it all simply because they have one competent starting pitcher? You gotta be mental.

#54 ScottyB

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Posted 23 July 2012 - 08:10 PM

Count the assumptions in this post.

1. Sano, Rosario, Hicks, Arcia, etc will mature into big league above-average 3rd baseman, 2nd baseman, outfielder, and outfielder. Unlikely at best.

2. A speedy low-power outfield of Hicks, Arcia and Revere cuts it in 2015 AL.

3. The Nats don't pull a trade before the end of the year and, A. are still interested in Span despite his concussion issues, B. are shopping Lambordozzi, C. Span is a worse outfielder than one of Hicks, Arcia, Revere, etc. D. Lombo is a better utility guy than Casilla

4. The Nats are interested in soaping up Morneau's contract, and A. would additinonally trade prospects on top ie. 1 or more of Ray, Turnbull and Rosenbaum

That my friend adds up to a sandcastle in the sky. Things change faster than you may think. And the Nats are changing as fast as any team in the league. They need a CF but that is all you have accurately described, I think



1. You're the idiot who wants to trade Sano at age 19 for an expensive starting pitcher for this team right now. As I said, an expensive starting pitcher will not turn this team around. They aren't a player or 2 away from contending. This would be throwing money out the door.

2. Not sure what you consider to be above average, but Hicks is on the same timeline that Hunter and Span were on and yes I do consider them to be above average. Sano and Rosario are 19 and 20 and yes I believe they will be good ballplayers as well. If none of these guys turn out to be good ballplayers, then let's throw in the towel for the next decade.

3. Other than the heat exhaustion that caused Span to come out of the ballgame on Saturday has he shown 1 concussion issue this season? If so, please point it out to me, 'cause I haven't seen it. And yes, the Nats are looking for help in CF and a leadoff hitter and he would fill the bill nicely for them.

4. Lombardozzi is currently playing in the outfield for the Nats, if they got Span, he would be a spare part. Casilla would take his place as a utility guy. Obviously your contention is that no prospect will ever make it to the majors so trade them for proven players. As they said in ET this is reality - not science fiction. Why would the Twins get rid of prospects who they will have control over for umpteen years at low salaries for players who will cost millions. You just don't have a payroll where all players are veterans at the same time, it makes no sense - especially not for the Twins who have always been frugal.

5. Where in my comment do I say that the Twins should trade Morneau to Washington or that the Nats have an interest in him - answer: I don't. And I don't think it's unreasonable that Span and Casilla might bring back some prospects who will be ready in 2014-15.

#55 Oxtung

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Posted 23 July 2012 - 08:11 PM

4 panned out (and a few more had some decent careers)... therefore, let's trade him for an overpriced pitcher on the downswing of his career... yeah, makes a lot of sense.


You have mischaracterized this entire thread. Most people who are ok with trading Sano, me included, want a young well thought of front end starter that has years of team control left in return (ie someone like David Price). Personally I think that would take a package of prospects not just Sano and I might be OK with that depending on who was involved.

#56 Mike Sixel

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Posted 23 July 2012 - 08:12 PM

David Price is under team control until 2016, that is not a 2 year rental. He is proven to be an effective MLB starting pitcher. I'm not sure how people dismiss trading a low A player for that as insane, stupid, mental, whatever you want to call it. It also isn't about "one pitcher". If you assume they'll sign one, that means they now have two legit starters, replacing the slop they've thrown up there this year. I'm not sure how people expect to build this team up, if they won't trade prospects for legit players, and they won't trade legit players for prospects...and we know they won't sign a bunch of FAs.

One of the best opening day rosters in years. Now go get 'em.


#57 etspaceman

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Posted 23 July 2012 - 08:17 PM

Why are you trying to rush success with the current roster? The Twins have so much young talent in their system; wouldn't it make sense to WAIT for that young talent to emerge in a wave and have a good chance of being competitive? What do you think the Twins' chances are with David Price right now? Are they suddenly a playoff contender now that they have one competent pitcher? Do you think Sano's trade value will rise over time, therefore netting a better package in the future?

Edited by etspaceman, 23 July 2012 - 08:20 PM.


#58 Willihammer

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Posted 23 July 2012 - 08:35 PM

[quote name='ScottyB']1. You're the idiot who wants to trade Sano at age 19 for an expensive starting pitcher for this team right now. As I said, an expensive starting pitcher will not turn this team around. They aren't a player or 2 away from contending. This would be throwing money out the door.[/QUOTE]

Ad hominems neither advance the thread nor foster a culture of intelligent debate.

To your point: The idea is that that Felix/Price would be willing to sign an extension owing to the fact that the Twins have already committed to winning now (see Mauer, Willingham, Doumit, and proverbially Liriano at 3/30). [quote name='ScottyB']2. Not sure what you consider to be above average, but Hicks is on the same timeline that Hunter and Span were on and yes I do consider them to be above average. Sano and Rosario are 19 and 20 and yes I believe they will be good ballplayers as well. If none of these guys turn out to be good ballplayers, then let's throw in the towel for the next decade.[/QUOTE] Not sure what you mean by 19 and 20... Outfield prospects are the least desirable commodities. Proven MLB SPs are high value commodities. [quote name='ScottyB']3. Other than the heat exhaustion that caused Span to come out of the ballgame on Saturday has he shown 1 concussion issue this season? If so, please point it out to me, 'cause I haven't seen it. And yes, the Nats are looking for help in CF and a leadoff hitter and he would fill the bill nicely for them.[/QUOTE] I hope you're right. I'm just trying to be, realistic. [quote name='ScottyB']4. Lombardozzi is currently playing in the outfield for the Nats, if they got Span, he would be a spare part. Casilla would take his place as a utility guy. Obviously your contention is that no prospect will ever make it to the majors so trade them for proven players. As they said in ET this is reality - not science fiction. Why would the Twins get rid of prospects who they will have control over for umpteen years at low salaries for players who will cost millions. You just don't have a payroll where all players are veterans at the same time, it makes no sense - especially not for the Twins who have always been frugal. [/QUOTE]Have I psoposed a trade to the Nats? The Nats are not ideal trade partners and again, middle of the road outfielders are a low-value commidity. [quote name='ScottyB']5. Where in my comment do I say that the Twins should trade Morneau to Washington or that the Nats have an interest in him - answer: I don't. And I don't think it's unreasonable that Span and Casilla might bring back some prospects who will be ready in 2014-15.[/QUOTE] The 2nd block of text in a row - I don't know what you're replying to here.

#59 Mike Sixel

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Posted 23 July 2012 - 08:36 PM

Price is under control for 4 more years, by then, pretty much every prospect with upside will be in the majors. By then, they will have hopefully signed a FA starter. By then, Morneau will be gone, and they'll likely use that money on a starter or a 2B/SS. This isn't about this year, nor is it about rushing. Sure, his value could rise, it could also drop. He could be the best HR hitter ever, or he could barely make it in the majors. There is risk in every move. What I would not do, is suck last year, suck this year, suck next year, and suck the following year, all because I would not sign legit MLB starters, or trade prospects for proven veterans. If you really think they should give up until 2015 or so, why not trade everyone over 28 right now?

One of the best opening day rosters in years. Now go get 'em.


#60 FrodaddyG

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Posted 23 July 2012 - 08:42 PM

And, with this thread, Twins Daily has reached a new low...



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