The Twins’ bullpen wasn’t good in April. I think we can all agree with that, and the number of blown saves alone would illustrate it well. Obviously any time that a late-inning bullpen guy has a bad outing, it is likely to cost the team the game, or at least lessen the odds of the team winning.
But one thing I wanted to know going into the season, something I’ve been curious about for years, is how often can the manager call to a guy in the bullpen and that reliever got the job done. In other words, how reliable is the pitcher? If Paul Molitor calls on Ryan Pressly in the 7th or 8th inning how often did Pressly leave the game having done his job?Every outing gets a “grade” of either Yes or No. Yes, he got the job done. No, he did not perform well for the situation he was called into. We have looked at this a couple of times already this month, so I thought a monthly recap would be important. It will also give us a basis for what happens in May, June and beyond.
Here are the overall success rates of the relievers in April:
Pitcher -- Yes-No (Success Rate)
Casey Fien -- 8-4 (66.7%)
Trevor May -- 7-5 (58.3%)
Fernando Abad -- 11-0 (100.0%)
Ryan Pressly -- 8-3 (72.7%)
Michael Tonkin -- 7-3 (70.0%)
Kevin Jepsen -- 5-5 (50.0%)
Ryan O’Rourke -- 5-2 (71.4%)
Glen Perkins - 0-2 (0.0%)
Taylor Rogers -- 1-0 (100.0%)
Alex Meyer -- 0-1 (0.0%)So, in the season’s first month, Paul Molitor has gone to his bullpen 76 times. 52 of those times, or 68.4%, have been successful.
As I’ve acknowledged all along, this is subjective number based on my interpretation of what getting the job done is for a reliever. But it does give a good sense of where they are.
I’m certain it will be of no surprise to read that Kevin Jepsen has struggled, and since he’s been the closer, his non-successful outings have cost leads and in some cases games. Likewise, if you’ve watched, you’re likely not surprised to see that Fernando Abad has been perfect to this point.
In case you were wondering:
- Fernando Abad - 11 G, 10.1 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 5 hits, 3 walks, 12 strikeouts.
- Tony Sipp - 11 G, 8.1 IP, 5.40 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 10 hits, 3 walks, 9 strikeouts.
- Antonio Bastardo - 9 G, 10.1 IP, 2.61 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 9 hits, 3 walks, 16 strikeouts.
I won’t pretend know where these numbers will go, or if 68% success rate is good. What it does show is that four of the seven relievers used most often are within four percent of the average. Trevor May is about 10% below, and Kevin Jepsen is almost 20% below the average. Fernando Abad is 32% above the average. I would not be shocked if the average each month stays in the 67-75% range, and within each month, there will be a couple of outliers.
We shall find out. For good or ill.
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