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Fangraphs (and other national publications) on the Twins

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#1841 Mike Sixel

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Posted 13 July 2017 - 02:01 PM

among players KLAW considered for his top 50, but missed:

 

Fernando Romero

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#1842 Mike Sixel

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Posted 13 July 2017 - 02:05 PM

John: I realize its sss but Royce Lewis is posting huge numbers in rookie ball, any reason not to move him to Cedar Rapids (low-A)?

Keith Law: You’re proposing a two-level jump for an 18-yo after 13 games. I don’t agree with that.

 

Chris: I am guessing Royce Lewis is SSS but I am guessing he is top 75? Could you see him top 50 at years end?

Keith Law: Probably top 75, based on draft ranking. Still playing short, and I don’t believe he can stay there. (If I thought he had even a 50/50 shot at staying at short, he’d have been a top 50 prospect.)

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I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#1843 Mike Sixel

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Posted 13 July 2017 - 02:19 PM

There are no words about Twins here....but the graph is interesting mostly for the third MN name....

 

https://fivethirtyei...n-to-get-saves/

 

Kintzler is highly ranked, btw. If they fall out of the race, you gotta deal him.

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#1844 jimmer

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Posted 13 July 2017 - 02:21 PM

 

There are no words about Twins here....but the graph is interesting mostly for the third MN name....

 

https://fivethirtyei...n-to-get-saves/

 

Kintzler is highly ranked, btw. If they fall out of the race, you gotta deal him.

They should deal him regardless. Santana too.  We already waited too long for Dozier.

Edited by jimmer, 13 July 2017 - 02:21 PM.

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#1845 Mike Sixel

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Posted 14 July 2017 - 12:09 PM

from the comments section the fangraphs trade value series:

 

YKnotDisco
Was Berrios close to making the HM/top 50?

1 2 hours 49 minutes ago

 

Dave Cameron
He wasn’t one of the last few guys cut, but you could throw him into the 51-100 group and he’d fit in fine. If he keeps pitching well, he’ll get consideration next year.

 

http://www.fangraphs...to-10/#comments

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#1846 Vanimal46

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Posted 17 July 2017 - 11:16 AM

Big Joey
1:06 expecting a big 2nd half from Dozier?

 

Travis Sawchik
1:06 Moderate buy low

 

mike sixel
1:06 All pitchers are risks, sure, but if you trade them all away for hitters (out of fear of injury), how do you ever get pitching? There is no reason for Detroit to trade a young, cost controlled, starting pitcher. Other than a ridiculous over pay, of course.

 

Travis Sawchik
1:06 It's the old Pitch-22
1:07 Investing in pitching is insane expect that you can't win without it

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#1847 Vanimal46

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Posted 18 July 2017 - 09:10 AM

Dave Cameron updated his List of Buyers and Sellers yesterday. While the Twins still remain a bubble team, their % chance to make the playoffs has improved since last month! 


#1848 Mike Sixel

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Posted 19 July 2017 - 10:31 AM

MN Bartolo
9:29 Do you foresee the Twins making any moves before the deadline? Maybe bullpen help?

 

Jeff Sullivan
9:29 I think they do some very boring stuff. They're not going to make any splashes. Would've liked to see them get Roe instead but that's pretty damn minor

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#1849 Vanimal46

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Posted 19 July 2017 - 01:11 PM

Even this is a little generous... 

 

9:51
Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: Thanks Jeff, now I need to explain to my boss why my productivity dropped on a Wednesday instead of a Friday. And I don’t have my usual weekend excuse.Odds Dozier can repeat his insane second half from last year?

 

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: 10%!


#1850 Vanimal46

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Posted 20 July 2017 - 08:44 AM

Long article on The Ringer about Brandon Kintzler. 

https://theringer.co...er-a0178d3a6bd8

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#1851 Vanimal46

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Posted 21 July 2017 - 07:46 AM

Hot off the presses at Fangraphs:

"Jaime Garcia is about right for the Twins"


#1852 Han Joelo

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Posted 21 July 2017 - 08:12 AM

Hot off the presses at Fangraphs:

"Jaime Garcia is about right for the Twins"


Good article. But why do people think the Twins have been especially lucky with sequencing? Is that just assumed when W-L exceeds base runs expectancy? I keep thinking that -25 against the Astros alone represents a lot of BAD luck, and is skewing the expectancy.

#1853 Mike Sixel

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Posted 21 July 2017 - 08:14 AM

Let's just say that Cameron doesn't agree with this article, he was clear on that on Twitter last night. He feels the Twins should be sellers.

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#1854 drjim

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Posted 21 July 2017 - 08:21 AM

I'm not sure I agree with the Fangraphs assumptions that Cleveland is going to be far and away the best team in baseball going forward.
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Papers...business papers.

#1855 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 21 July 2017 - 08:23 AM

 

Let's just say that Cameron doesn't agree with this article, he was clear on that on Twitter last night. He feels the Twins should be sellers.

It's quite possible they should be sellers in the abstract but in the real world, that would absolutely destroy fan interest in this team. How many millions would the team be leaving on the table in 2018 if they closed out this season with a 74-88 record?

 

Never mind what that does to young players who are in a division race for the first time in their careers. If this team is going to contend before 2020, they need to invest in the players on the field and let them taste success.

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#1856 drivlikejehu

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Posted 21 July 2017 - 08:28 AM

Is there that much fan interest in the team?

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#1857 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 21 July 2017 - 08:34 AM

 

Is there that much fan interest in the team?

Right now? Not a ton but I expect attendance will be solid through the rest of the season if the Twins stay in it.

 

But baseball attendance usually lags by a season. Stay in the race through 2017 and it's likely the Twins see a significant attendance bump in 2018 (provided they don't open the season with a catastrophic failure as they did in 2016).


#1858 Vanimal46

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Posted 21 July 2017 - 08:35 AM

 

Is there that much fan interest in the team?

 

Probably not right now. I think the casual fans are still in wait and see mode with this team. If the Twins finish the year above .500, maybe a WC berth, and make a splash in the off-season, they'll come back. 


#1859 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 21 July 2017 - 08:36 AM

From that article. This makes no sense:

"At the same time, however, Minnesota ranks 25th in the majors in BaseRuns win percentage (.438), suggesting they’ve benefited considerably from sequencing. Entering Friday, FanGraphs expects the Twins to finish with 78 wins and 84 losses. Overall, the club possesses a 10.6% probability of reaching the postseason according to FanGraphs’ playoff odds — and a 2.6% chance of capturing the division."

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#1860 drivlikejehu

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Posted 21 July 2017 - 08:39 AM

 

Right now? Not a ton but I expect attendance will be solid through the rest of the season if the Twins stay in it.

 

But baseball attendance usually lags by a season. Stay in the race through 2017 and it's likely the Twins see a significant attendance bump in 2018 (provided they don't open the season with a catastrophic failure as they did in 2016).

 

Well a couple small acquisitions aren't going to change the fact that the Twins are highly unlikely to make the playoffs and probably won't even stay above .500.

 

I understand why they feel a need to do something, but I think the benefits are mostly or entirely imaginary, which would make it hard to stomach giving up a solid prospect.

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