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#1681 Mike Sixel

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Posted 19 May 2017 - 10:58 AM

fake newss
9:10 Thoughts on Berrios after last night's game? More optimistic now?

 

Jeff Sullivan
9:11 I don't think I was ever particularly un-optimistic. I never saw a convincing explanation for why what happened in 2016 happened, and the high-minors numbers have always been so promising
Berrios last year went from 67% strikes in Triple-A to 58% strikes in the majors. That just wasn't going to hold up. In two starts in the majors this year, he's thrown plenty of strikes, and it turns out a strike-throwing Jose Berrios can be super good

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#1682 Mike Sixel

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Posted 19 May 2017 - 11:16 AM

It's a veritable treasure trove of Berrios questions today!

 

bosoxforlife
10:05 Please explain Jose Berrios's 2016 season. It looks like the most unfathomable thing ever.

 

Jeff Sullivan
10:05 It doesn't make very good sense. Obviously, something happened, but if I had to guess, he just wasn't mentally prepared for the major leagues, and he allowed things to snowball on him

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#1683 Mike Sixel

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Posted 19 May 2017 - 11:19 AM

DTH
10:18 Berrios was looking pretty pretty prettaaaaaay good. what level is he going to settle into this year? and do the Twins sneaky good young core have a shot at the playoffs this year?

 

Jeff Sullivan
10:19 The pitching staff is just too bad, even with Berrios. But now we're seeing why the Twins could have a real direction. So much comes down to Buxton/Berrios/Sano because the upside is massive

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#1684 Mike Sixel

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Posted 19 May 2017 - 12:06 PM

Pete
11:03 With the Twins playing so well, is Byungho Park doomed to spend the entire season in Rochester, NY? Or do the Twins take the first decent trade offer they get?

 

Jeff Sullivan
11:03 Park hasn't done anything yet in Triple-A. But, Kennys Vargas hasn't been good this year in the majors. If Park catches fire he'll earn a look

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#1685 Mike Sixel

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Posted 19 May 2017 - 12:50 PM

Nick Turley:

 

http://www.fangraphs...e-prospects-88/

 

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#1686 nicksaviking

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Posted 19 May 2017 - 12:58 PM

 

Pete
11:03 With the Twins playing so well, is Byungho Park doomed to spend the entire season in Rochester, NY? Or do the Twins take the first decent trade offer they get?

 

Jeff Sullivan
11:03 Park hasn't done anything yet in Triple-A. But, Kennys Vargas hasn't been good this year in the majors. If Park catches fire he'll earn a look

 

This is probably only Sullivan not realizing Vargas hasn't been up the entire year. He's only started 14 games; this is like the second week of April for him stats-wise. It's a SSS issue, he had on OPS of .925 just six games ago. Had that question been asked last week it would have gotten a different answer.

 

Not that I'd expect Sullivan to have Twins stats memorized or anything.

 

But I loved all the other Twins related chat questions today!

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#1687 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 19 May 2017 - 01:21 PM

John: Too bad you can’t find time to stop by the Twins broadcast booth. They seem to spend half their time talking about errors, batting average, and the virtue of sacrificing runners over.
 

Keith Law: In Smart Baseball I mention the irony of Bert Blyleven, who is only a Hall of Famer because of sabermetrics and the lobbying of people in the sabermetrics community, hating sabermetrics.

In fairness, Provus is great and ventures into sabermetric territory when he can, but I absolutely love everything else about this question and answer.
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#1688 Oldgoat_MN

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Posted 20 May 2017 - 03:26 PM

Twins hitters & swing rate. Pretty encouraging.

FanGraphs

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#1689 Thrylos

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Posted 20 May 2017 - 03:41 PM

 

 

The words "Turley" and "prospect" do not belong in the same sentence.He will be 28 in 3 months or so...

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#1690 Vanimal46

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Posted 22 May 2017 - 11:35 AM

Andrew
1:05 So did Sano also figure out how to play third base? I was shocked to see him 3rd on the leaderboard. Sample size or is he maybe serviceable there now?

 

Travis Sawchik
1:06 Dave Cameron wrote an interesting piece back in March off Statcast data that suggested his skill set (reaction time, arm strength, etc) actually fits pretty well at third. It's a position more about reaction than range
Let me find the link ...
http://www.fangraphs...sive-superstar/
Dave knows ...

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#1691 milldaddy35

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Posted 24 May 2017 - 08:06 AM

Brandon Kintzler turned down a role in the movie Moneyball.

Edited by milldaddy35, 24 May 2017 - 08:07 AM.

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Career Game Thread Record: 1-0


#1692 Vanimal46

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Posted 24 May 2017 - 10:54 AM

Erik
12:04 The Twins' playoff odds have inched up to 15%, which is still quite low for a team playing so well that has some legitimate young talent. Would you take the over on that 15%, or does that number feel right to you?

 

Dave Cameron
12:04 If anything, I'd take the under.
12:05 Sano is a really good hitter. Buxton can play center field really well. But this isn't a playoff team unless they get really, really lucky.


#1693 Vanimal46

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Posted 24 May 2017 - 10:56 AM

If you haven't caught on, Dave Cameron is not a believer in the Twins yet. 

JD15

12:11 What do you expect a team like the Twins to do at the deadline? Yesterday you mentioned the D-back possibly regretting not dealing Greinke while he is pitching like his contract suggests. Seems similar to Ervin Santana situation.

 

Dave Cameron
12:11 Well, Ervin's contract is significantly smaller, so there's less downside to keeping him. But yeah, I think the Twins will fade enough to move him this summer.


#1694 Vanimal46

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Posted 24 May 2017 - 10:58 AM

This seems criminally low. 

The Future

12:33 Miguel Sano has had quite an interesting season so far. How good do you think he can be long-term?

 

Dave Cameron
12:34 I think he's probably a +4 win player in his peak.
Not a lot of defense or baserunning value, but the bat is legit.


#1695 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 24 May 2017 - 11:04 AM

 

This seems criminally low. 

The Future

12:33 Miguel Sano has had quite an interesting season so far. How good do you think he can be long-term?

 

Dave Cameron
12:34 I think he's probably a +4 win player in his peak.
Not a lot of defense or baserunning value, but the bat is legit.

So Cameron thinks a 2.7 win player over 41 games is worth 4 wins in a season. Got it.

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#1696 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 24 May 2017 - 11:07 AM

 

Dave Cameron

12:11 Well, Ervin's contract is significantly smaller, so there's less downside to keeping him. But yeah, I think the Twins will fade enough to move him this summer.

I understand his thinking and don't disagree the Twins have a good chance of fading but it's getting harder to see this team being sellers with each additional day.

 

We're almost into June. At some point, one has to admit this team is likely to be a fringe contender at the very least. Sure, maybe they enter the deadline 2-3 games under .500 but that's a fringe contender in today's game.

 

And they'd have to be pretty bad to be three games under .500 at the deadline. They'd have to string together a couple of 10-15 months in June and July to get there.

 

It's pretty hard to squint and see that happening when the Twins are currently looking to exit Baltimore with a sweep.

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#1697 Vanimal46

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Posted 24 May 2017 - 11:15 AM

 

So Cameron thinks a 2.7 win player over 41 games is worth 4 wins in a season. Got it.

 

He got a little snarky.... 

Eric

1:14 Re: Sano. A guy with 2.7 WAR in 41 games so far is worth 4 wins in a season. Got it.

 

Dave Cameron
1:14 Yes, because projections work by taking a player's line through the first 50 games and extrapolating.
Did you know Alex Avila is the best hitting catcher ever?


#1698 drjim

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Posted 24 May 2017 - 11:39 AM

 

He got a little snarky.... 

Eric

1:14 Re: Sano. A guy with 2.7 WAR in 41 games so far is worth 4 wins in a season. Got it.

 

Dave Cameron
1:14 Yes, because projections work by taking a player's line through the first 50 games and extrapolating.
Did you know Alex Avila is the best hitting catcher ever?

 

There's snark, and then there's digging a bigger hole. Comparing a hot start by Avila to the emergence of a man child is how you end up looking silly.

 

I don't necessarily think Sano is a 10 WAR player (yet), but he does seem a little bit better than 4.

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#1699 Mike Sixel

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Posted 24 May 2017 - 11:42 AM

The Yankees were fringe contenders last year, and sold. Very well, I might add....and now are even more set up for the future and near present.

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#1700 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 24 May 2017 - 12:18 PM

 

He got a little snarky.... 

Eric

1:14 Re: Sano. A guy with 2.7 WAR in 41 games so far is worth 4 wins in a season. Got it.

 

Dave Cameron
1:14 Yes, because projections work by taking a player's line through the first 50 games and extrapolating.
Did you know Alex Avila is the best hitting catcher ever?

Lazy answer. As we all know, Avila is not Sano.

 

It's weird to see Cameron dismiss the guy who is making the rest of baseball look bad with his exit velocity as a four win player.

 

Five wins? Maybe. Six wins? Sure. Sano's defense is going to limit his value somewhat but the guy has shown he can be elite with the bat.

 

Cameron is basically saying that Sano's ceiling is Denard Span.

 

Sure, okay.

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