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StarTribune Article: "High Upside" Prospect the Focus in Any Deadline Trade

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#1 East Coast Twin

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Posted 20 July 2012 - 05:55 AM

Interesting read in the StarTribune today.

The article basically says don't expect any deadline trade to produce pitching help for 2013. Terry Ryan states the Twins look for a "high ceiling guy" in such a trade. Given that teams are unlikely to give up such a player whose also major league ready, Ryan said the best target may be a Class A pitcher.

The article also cites scouts as saying Brian Duensing has better overall stuff than Scott Diamond.

http://www.startribu.../163133146.html

#2 Top Gun

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Posted 20 July 2012 - 06:47 AM

Ya, we all know that.

#3 Twins Fan From Afar

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Posted 20 July 2012 - 07:02 AM

This seems like the smartest plan. Look for young, affordable starting pitchers for 2014 and beyond (the years when guys like Miguel Sano, Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia, and others will also hopefully be young, affordable, and playing for the Twins). 2013, though, is going to be another rough one!
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#4 mike wants wins

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Posted 20 July 2012 - 07:39 AM

Depressingly accurate. Next year is going to suck again.

What I just typed is probably an opinion, not a fact. I mean, I'm usually right, so you should maybe assume it is or will be a fact soon, but that's up to you. :) Also, I am NOT trying to convince anyone I am correct, I'm just talking here, not arguing.


#5 Top Gun

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Posted 20 July 2012 - 07:57 AM

Another 5 years!

#6 JB_Iowa

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Posted 20 July 2012 - 08:10 AM

I'm a little puzzled by why the Duensing/Diamond comment is there. Is this a warning that Diamond might regress? We all know that is a possibility. Is it a message to Duensing that he can do better? I didn't think there was an exact correlation between "stuff" and pitching success -- although better "stuff" certainly helps. Just not sure why that paragraph is there unless he just needed to say something about both of them but then couldn't complete the inference.

#7 twinswon1991

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Posted 20 July 2012 - 08:28 AM

I would be happy trading Frankie for one of the new competitive balance sandwich picks that are tradeable. Get the pick in the bag now before he regresses. This team won't be good for several years and the best way to try to acquire elite pitching is thru the draft.

#8 Winston Smith

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Posted 20 July 2012 - 08:32 AM

I think it is a warning that getting by on so so stuff may not last. We have seen it before a pitcher or even hitters will look great for a time and the league will get a scouting report and they will came back to earth. Did Valencia forget how to hit or did the league find a better way to pitch him? Pitchers with so so stuff have to rely on location more and if that fine line of good location and poor location fades things can go south fast, we've seen that many times. Plouffe may be the same case no homeruns for some time, he's getting a lot fewer meatball fastballs. While his average is showing good signs the homeruns may be much farther apart from now on.

#9 nicksaviking

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Posted 20 July 2012 - 08:35 AM

I would be happy trading Frankie for one of the new competitive balance sandwich picks that are tradeable. Get the pick in the bag now before he regresses.

This team won't be good for several years and the best way to try to acquire elite pitching is thru the draft.


I'd rather the other teams draft the pitchers and begin the development process, the Twins have not proven to be very good at it as of late.

#10 East Coast Twin

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Posted 20 July 2012 - 08:35 AM

I think it is a warning that getting by on so so stuff may not last. We have seen it before a pitcher or even hitters will look great for a time and the league will get a scouting report and they will came back to earth. Did Valencia forget how to hit or did the league find a better way to pitch him? Pitchers with so so stuff have to rely on location more and if that fine line of good location and poor location fades things can go south fast, we've seen that many times. Plouffe may be the same case no homeruns for some time, he's getting a lot fewer meatball fastballs. While his average is showing good signs the homeruns may be much farther apart from now on.


That's how I read it also.

#11 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 20 July 2012 - 08:39 AM

I think it is a warning that getting by on so so stuff may not last. We have seen it before a pitcher or even hitters will look great for a time and the league will get a scouting report and they will came back to earth. Did Valencia forget how to hit or did the league find a better way to pitch him? Pitchers with so so stuff have to rely on location more and if that fine line of good location and poor location fades things can go south fast, we've seen that many times. Plouffe may be the same case no homeruns for some time, he's getting a lot fewer meatball fastballs. While his average is showing good signs the homeruns may be much farther apart from now on.


Yep. Contact guys are rarely above average pitchers for extended periods of time unless they have an absurd ground ball rate to back up the lack of strikeouts.

I fully expect Diamond to regress. I only hope that his regression isn't Blackburn-esque. I don't think it will be because his K rate is 5.1/9 (Blackburn's career high was 4.6/9 last season), which isn't completely awful, just bad.

Some guys can survive as league-average pitchers with the occasional above-average season with that kind of K rate, even if they don't induce a ton of grounders. Brad Radke was one of those guys. Diamond induces a lot of ground balls right now but even if that lets up a bit, there's a chance he will still be a serviceable pitcher.

#12 birdwatcher

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Posted 20 July 2012 - 08:43 AM

Suckage is one way to look at 2013, but I see a half full glass. Why? We may see some very fun glimpses of a bright future. I'm very excited to see who, among a very promising group, shows they belong with the big club. I will choose to look for improved play from the likes of Revere, Hendriks, Plouffe, Parmelee, Dozier, Robertson, Oliveros, and others. Who will see big league time among Benson, Arcia, Hicks, Tosoni, Guerra, Hermsen, Gutierrez, Wimmers, Bromberg, Waldrop, Herrmann, and others? Will we enjoy continued improvement due to Terry Ryan's moves? Some of us have gotten some satisfaction from the improved lineup and bullpen this year. Are you at least optimistic about Sano, Rosario, Salcedo, Kepler, Buxton, Berrios, Melotakis, Goodrum, and others? It's OK to be reaistic, to expect some failures but there should be some good news too. Enjoy! 2011 was almost invariably unwatchable. 2012? Watchable quite often. 2013 is not going to suck for a lot of us, and I hope some of you choose to come along for the ride instead of looking for the inevitable sources of bad news.

#13 twinswon1991

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Posted 20 July 2012 - 08:47 AM

I'd rather the other teams draft the pitchers and begin the development process, the Twins have not proven to be very good at it as of late.




Very true but I am hoping Ryan is truely an interim GM and by next draft we have a new GM and a completely overhauled scouting department.

#14 mike wants wins

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Posted 20 July 2012 - 09:23 AM

I can be optimistic about 2014, bit who is going to pay target field prices to watch them lose 90 games the third year in a row. The declining attendance will create a negative feedback loop on the payroll, imo....

What I just typed is probably an opinion, not a fact. I mean, I'm usually right, so you should maybe assume it is or will be a fact soon, but that's up to you. :) Also, I am NOT trying to convince anyone I am correct, I'm just talking here, not arguing.


#15 Thrylos

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Posted 20 July 2012 - 09:34 AM

Suckage is one way to look at 2013, but I see a half full glass. Why? We may see some very fun glimpses of a bright future. I'm very excited to see who, among a very promising group, shows they belong with the big club. I will choose to look for improved play from the likes of Revere, Hendriks, Plouffe, Parmelee, Dozier, Robertson, Oliveros, and others. Who will see big league time among Benson, Arcia, Hicks, Tosoni, Guerra, Hermsen, Gutierrez, Wimmers, Bromberg, Waldrop, Herrmann, and others? Will we enjoy continued improvement due to Terry Ryan's moves? Some of us have gotten some satisfaction from the improved lineup and bullpen this year. Are you at least optimistic about Sano, Rosario, Salcedo, Kepler, Buxton, Berrios, Melotakis, Goodrum, and others? It's OK to be reaistic, to expect some failures but there should be some good news too. Enjoy!

2011 was almost invariably unwatchable. 2012? Watchable quite often. 2013 is not going to suck for a lot of us, and I hope some of you choose to come along for the ride instead of looking for the inevitable sources of bad news.


This assumes that the braintrust does not go out and sign the likes of Marquis and a bunch of washed up AAA/AAAA MiLB FA Ps to add to the rotation... Unfortunately, this has been the "Twins' way". And, unfortunately, I am not confident that this club can complete unless there is infusion of new blood and ideas from top to bottom from outside the organization. The "Twins way" and the stale old people who are running the team is the root cause of the problem here. Lack of MLB-ready SPs in the organization, non-competition the last few years with one and outs before are just the symptoms...
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#16 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 20 July 2012 - 09:36 AM

I can be optimistic about 2014, bit who is going to pay target field prices to watch them lose 90 games the third year in a row. The declining attendance will create a negative feedback loop on the payroll, imo....


Agreed. It's probably the biggest problem with an aggressive rebuilding plan. It's tough to get fans interested in a team again after they have been awful for 3+ seasons.

While JR says that high upside, low minors guys are the best option (and I agree with him), it's still a bitter pill to swallow.

And if this team is going to lose big in 2013, I think it's probably a good idea that everyone and everything goes. If the team has no hope next season, what is the point of keeping Morneau, Willingham, and Doumit when they're all worth something (well, maybe not Morneau)?

Unless JR has big plans for this offseason but I don't see the Twins diving into the market and making a real splash.

Dunno. Lots of variables to consider here and without knowing the overall plan, it's hard to say much of anything.

#17 Thrylos

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Posted 20 July 2012 - 09:48 AM

And if this team is going to lose big in 2013, I think it's probably a good idea that everyone and everything goes. If the team has no hope next season, what is the point of keeping Morneau, Willingham, and Doumit when they're all worth something (well, maybe not Morneau)?
.


Bingo. But that is not "the Twins' way". They like to do things their own half-rear end way. I would not be surprised if Ryan picks Capps' option for 2013.

Unless JR has big plans for this offseason but I don't see the Twins diving into the market and making a real splash.
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#18 birdwatcher

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Posted 20 July 2012 - 10:08 AM

thrlyos, the Twins did not sign a bunch of washed up FA's in 2012, did they? Your "Twins Way" schtick is old news. The "Twins Way" is actually happenning much differently than you portray using pre-Target Field examples. What I assume is they'll sign at least one Shaun Marcum-type free agent. They'll be better. They'll be more fun to watch. They'll probably struggle to be a .500 team. But the thing that we can surely count on is that you'll ignore all the Willingham, Burton, Doumit moves and continue to use the Marquis backfire, or some other move you hate, to make your case. Yawn.

#19 twinswon1991

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Posted 20 July 2012 - 11:04 AM

thrlyos, the Twins did not sign a bunch of washed up FA's in 2012, did they? Your "Twins Way" schtick is old news. The "Twins Way" is actually happenning much differently than you portray using pre-Target Field examples. What I assume is they'll sign at least one Shaun Marcum-type free agent. They'll be better. They'll be more fun to watch. They'll probably struggle to be a .500 team. But the thing that we can surely count on is that you'll ignore all the Willingham, Burton, Doumit moves and continue to use the Marquis backfire, or some other move you hate, to make your case. Yawn.



I agree with Thyros. Other than Willingham, none of the offseason signings were made to make the team better beyond 2012. The other signings were bargin bin stop gaps and in the case of Burton it turned out great. Doumit was a great signing but extending a part timer on a 100 loss team hardly makes sense. The rest of the signings were like setting money on fire buying washed up vets to fill spots that should be occupied by cheap young talent from the minors. This gets back to the main issue that TR and his scouting staff have done a horrendous job of drafting and scouting for the last 10 years.

#20 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 20 July 2012 - 11:28 AM

This gets back to the main issue that TR and his scouting staff have done a horrendous job of drafting and scouting for the last 10 years.


You keep saying it but it's still not true. The Twins have been entirely mediocre with their scouting and drafting. A mid-market team needs to be better than mediocre to compete but that still doesn't mean they've been "horrendous".