I'd give you 5 to 1 odds. That's how sure I am it will be Duffey. And some chunk of that is if Duffey gets injured (knock on wood that doesn't happen).
If it was any other "contending" team in baseball you might as well make it 500:1 odds, with TR/DSP/Pohlad regime though? I'd say it's 2:1 odds Nolasco "starts" the season in the rotation.