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Article: Who Will Be The Twins' 4th And 5th Outfielders?

oswaldo arcia danny santana carlos quentin ryan sweeney max kepler
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#101 jimmer

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Posted 13 March 2016 - 11:38 AM

 

This is going to be an interesting watch. Especially since Rosario could pull a Santana 2.0 and NOT be a surefire left-fielder. 

Honestly, I'm not sure Rosario would have to pull a Santana to show he's not a sure fire LF (or starter at all).  He wasn't nearly the offensive force Santana was when Santana posted the unsustainable BABIP in 2014.

 

21 LF in baseball had 450 or more PAs.

 

His OBP was like .289.  20th out of 21.

 

He had a 98 wRC+.  That tied him with Revere for 16th.

 

And he also had a fairly high BABIP which will need to be watched (not 2014 Santana high, but still high). 

 

Having said that, he finished tied for 10th out of 21 in WAR. So if he walks a bit more, Ks a bit less, even a drop in BABIP won't hurt him too much.  Defense has to stay awesome.

Edited by jimmer, 13 March 2016 - 11:41 AM.


#102 jsteve96

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Posted 13 March 2016 - 05:59 PM

 

This is going to be an interesting watch. Especially since Rosario could pull a Santana 2.0 and NOT be a surefire left-fielder. The vets will try and pull a spot (which means the Twins have to find 40-man places). Overall, the fight for bench positions may be strong this spring. Will it be Murphy (who could play fulltime at Rochester) or Hicks. Nunez or Santana or any of the other guys, if they step up. Arcia and Vargas to stay or go. Sweeney, Mastro, Quentin -- major league money looks much better than AAAA salaries. The only surefire lock in the outfield would seem to be Sano. Buxton NEEDS to win the job. Kepler could sneak in. Santana is in the roster fight of his life. Arcia could be cut...and if he plays badly in spring, the Twins may catch a break and get to keep him down on the farm for another season. The BENCH IS IN FLUX two weeks into spring training!

huge difference between Santana and Rosario. Santana had a BABIP over .400 and was due to regress. the only thing with rosario is will those triples mostly turn to doubles. I think he only gets 7 or 8 triples but more doubles. Murphy will be in MLB. him and Suzuki should split ABs, from what i hear Murphy > Suzuki with the glove


#103 alarp33

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Posted 14 March 2016 - 07:07 AM

 

Kepler has a .280 lifetime minor league average and hasn't even hit AAA yet.  He has 41 stolen bases in 6 seasons with 13 sac flies.

 

Santana has a lifetime .276 minor league average and has played in AAA already.  He has 124 stolen bases and 23 sac flies.  Hell his MLB average after two seasons is still .278 even after last season.

 

What about Kepler's one AA season where he virtually had the same average (.322 vs .319) as Santana did in his MLB season prove your "better stick" theory?  I think Santana offers more to start the season and runs faster.  He also has proven he is capable of providing sac flies when needed.  Things may change as May and June roll around.

 

Are these valid points?

 

No, they aren't. 

 

Though Kepler won't make the team, he'll play every day in AAA and be in MN if a starting OF hits the DL, or Rosario struggles big time. 

"The game has changed since I've entered, it's for bright, energetic negotiators moreso than anything I possess." - Terry Ryan 2007


#104 dxpavelka

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Posted 14 March 2016 - 10:34 AM

 

While I hope you are right, Molitor fell into the Gardy trap of keeping 13 pitchers pretty quickly last year.  

 

Not to mention, I for one was pretty disappointed with how they handled Arcia last year, who may have been able to provide a bench bat.  I know he was awful at AAA, but the point remains, he was an Opening Day starter, went on the DL early.. then got stuck at AAA because he didn't hit on his 5 day rehab stint.  Did that get into his head, causing a snowball effect of bad at bats in AAA... or was he truly just lost all season?

Rest assured, you were NOT the only one appalled with the handling of Arcia last year.It may have been a relatively small sample size but Eduardo Nunez was the only guy on the club to finish with more at bats & a higher batting average than Arcia last year.Could very well have been on his way to turning the corner but we may never know.

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#105 howieramone2

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Posted 14 March 2016 - 06:31 PM

 

Rest assured, you were NOT the only one appalled with the handling of Arcia last year.It may have been a relatively small sample size but Eduardo Nunez was the only guy on the club to finish with more at bats & a higher batting average than Arcia last year.Could very well have been on his way to turning the corner but we may never know.

Yeah, it may have been different if he hadn't crapped the bed in Rochester.


#106 gocgo

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Posted 15 March 2016 - 10:45 AM

 

Kepler has a .280 lifetime minor league average and hasn't even hit AAA yet.  He has 41 stolen bases in 6 seasons with 13 sac flies.

 

Santana has a lifetime .276 minor league average and has played in AAA already.  He has 124 stolen bases and 23 sac flies.  Hell his MLB average after two seasons is still .278 even after last season.

 

What about Kepler's one AA season where he virtually had the same average (.322 vs .319) as Santana did in his MLB season prove your "better stick" theory?  I think Santana offers more to start the season and runs faster.  He also has proven he is capable of providing sac flies when needed.  Things may change as May and June roll around.

 

Are these valid points?

 

Very valid points.  Don't get me wrong.  I'm not one of those guys that has been calling for Kepler for the last year.  He's raw.  On the flip side, Santana really crumbled when criticized in the media last year. There were articles written about his bruised psyche and how it affected his game.  That worries me about him.  Hopefully, he can ignore all that and just play.

Mind your own biscuits and life will be gravy.


#107 dxpavelka

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Posted 15 March 2016 - 11:14 AM

 

Yeah, it may have been different if he hadn't crapped the bed in Rochester.

I know he didn't show anything at Rochester but C'mon Man--2 words:Shane Robinson!!

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#108 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 15 March 2016 - 11:21 AM

 

Kepler has a .280 lifetime minor league average and hasn't even hit AAA yet.  He has 41 stolen bases in 6 seasons with 13 sac flies.

 

Santana has a lifetime .276 minor league average and has played in AAA already.  He has 124 stolen bases and 23 sac flies.  Hell his MLB average after two seasons is still .278 even after last season.

 

What about Kepler's one AA season where he virtually had the same average (.322 vs .319) as Santana did in his MLB season prove your "better stick" theory?  I think Santana offers more to start the season and runs faster.  He also has proven he is capable of providing sac flies when needed.  Things may change as May and June roll around.

 

Are these valid points?

I agree that Santana should start the season on the roster but batting average is basically useless to use in isolation, especially in the case of Danny Santana.

 

Santana will never repeat his 2014 BABIP, which directly led to that 2014 batting average. Santana swings and misses a lot. He doesn't walk often. He's a flawed hitter who doesn't show the signs you want to see from a hitting prospect.

 

Kepler, on the other hand, was damned near immaculate last year. He didn't swing and miss. He drew loads of walks. The guy has a refined approach Santana will never replicate. Oh, and Max profiles to hit for modest power as well. In a nutshell, he's everything Danny Santana is not as a hitter.

 

Santana MiLB BA: .276

Kepler MiLB BA: .280

 

Well, those are similar, right? Well, maybe not so much...

 

Santana MiLB OBP: .319

Kepler MiLB OBP: .362

 

Okay, these players aren't very similar at all. One guy thinks about taking a walk every so often, the other guy goes to the plate with the intent of making the guy on the mound throw pitches.

 

Santana MiLB SLG: .399

Kepler MiLB SLG: .445 (and a whopping .531 last season)

 

Yeah, these players are vastly different. The guy who makes the pitcher pitch also punishes the ball when the pitcher fails to execute. And the coup de grace:

 

Santana MiLB SO: once every 5.47 PAs

Kepler MiLB SO: once every 6.34 PAs (once every 7.65 PAs last season)

 

This is getting ridiculous. The guy who makes pitchers pitch and tattoos bad pitches also hits the ball when he swings at it. He's looking like a damned fine hitter at this point. The other guy, maybe not so much.

 

Batting average is a bad statistic in isolation. Kepler is a vastly superior hitter to Santana and trended up in a huge way last season. If Max gets the call to Minnesota, he needs to start every day. Danny Santana is utility fodder and the Twins should treat him as such (which it appears they are doing).

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#109 alarp33

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Posted 15 March 2016 - 11:25 AM

I agree that Santana should start the season on the roster but batting average is basically useless to use in isolation, especially in the case of Danny Santana.
 
Santana will never repeat his 2014 BABIP, which directly led to that 2014 batting average. Santana swings and misses a lot. He doesn't walk often. He's a flawed hitter who doesn't show the signs you want to see from a hitting prospect.
 
Kepler, on the other hand, was damned near immaculate last year. He didn't swing and miss. He drew loads of walks. The guy has a refined approach Santana will never replicate. Oh, and Max profiles to hit for modest power as well. In a nutshell, he's everything Danny Santana is not as a hitter.
 
Santana MiLB BA: .276
Kepler MiLB BA: .280
 
Well, those are similar, right? Well, maybe not so much...
 
Santana MiLB OBP: .319
Kepler MiLB OBP: .362
 
Okay, these players aren't very similar at all. One guy thinks about taking a walk every so often, the other guy goes to the plate with the intent of making the guy on the mound throw pitches.
 
Santana MiLB SLG: .399
Kepler MiLB SLG: .445 (and a whopping .531 last season)
 
Yeah, these players are vastly different. The guy who makes the pitcher pitch also punishes the ball when the pitcher fails to execute. And the coup de grace:
 
Santana MiLB SO: once every 5.47 PAs
Kepler MiLB SO: once every 6.34 PAs (once every 7.65 PAs last season)

This is getting ridiculous. The guy who makes pitchers pitch and tattoos bad pitches also hits the ball when he swings at it. He's looking like a damned fine hitter at this point. The other guy, maybe not so much.
 
Batting average is a bad statistic in isolation. Kepler is a vastly superior hitter to Santana and trended up in a huge way last season. If Max gets the call to Minnesota, he needs to start every day. Danny Santana is utility fodder and the Twins should treat him as such (which it appears they are doing).

 
Good work Brock, but I see you didn't have an answer for this one...
 
"He also has proven he is capable of providing sac flies when needed" - Re; Santana

"The game has changed since I've entered, it's for bright, energetic negotiators moreso than anything I possess." - Terry Ryan 2007


#110 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 15 March 2016 - 11:28 AM

 

Good work Brock, but I see you didn't have an answer for this one...

 

"He also has proven he is capable of providing sac flies when needed" - Re; Santana

Well, in a roundabout way, I did. :D

 

The guy who hits for power and doesn't miss the ball when he swings at it is going to provide plenty of sacrifice flies when presented the opportunity to do so.

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Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: oswaldo arcia, danny santana, carlos quentin, ryan sweeney, max kepler