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Baseball America updated prospect ranking

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#41 twinswon1991

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 03:33 PM

I won't copy the whole thing, but here are two sentences from the ESPN analysis of the Wimmers' pick.....

“There's some question whether he'll hold up as a starter, but I think average fastball/two plus pitches/control is a starter, until his performance proves otherwise. Wimmers is the closest thing to a Mike Leake this draft class has, although he's not the athlete that Leake is and hasn't pitched in a major baseball conference as Leake did.”

Law did say he thought he was the closest to the majors of any pitcher in that draft (well, him or Chris Sale).

Look, I get the pick, I just don’t see him as anywhere likely a #2. Name the number two pitchers (like, the 30-50th best pitchers in the league, maybe 20-35). Do we think it is LIKELY that Wimmers is (was) that? 20% likely? I just don’t think most pitchers reach that, especially not pitchers with an average or below average FB. His likely upside is a 3, with a more likely outcome a 4/5 if he's a starter someday. That’s mostly because that is the likely outcome for most pitching prospects that end up starters, not because he is a bad pitcher. Heck, most become relievers if they even make the majors.

I did not kill the pick at the time, but I also didn’t expect him to be a 2. I expected him to be up this year, as a 4/5, with him becoming a 3/4 over a year or two.


Great post. A few people posting above don't realize how good a #2 or #3 starter is. No way Wimmers had that sort of upside. A #2 starter is a Matt Cain type and a #3 is a Gio Gonzalez or Jon Lester type. The Twins had an ace in Santana but other than that they have had no #2 recently and maybe 1 season each from Baker and Frankie as #3's.

#42 drjim

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 03:41 PM

Great post. A few people posting above don't realize how good a #2 or #3 starter is. No way Wimmers had that sort of upside. A #2 starter is a Matt Cain type and a #3 is a Gio Gonzalez or Jon Lester type. The Twins had an ace in Santana but other than that they have had no #2 recently and maybe 1 season each from Baker and Frankie as #3's.


Wow, Cain is a #2? High standards.

#43 birdwatcher

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 03:43 PM

DPJ, YOU'RE the one who said Wimmers was destined to be a back-end guy unless he gained 5-6 MPH on his fastball. MOST, not some, but MOST analysts described his ceiling as higher. Two of those analysts have been mentioned in this thread. No analysts have been mentioned that supported your opinion that he was so obviously no better than a back-end guy. So, it's OK for you to have that opinion, but that doesn't support a conclusion that it was a bad pick. I was challenging you to come up with some alternative names- pitchers that throw "hard enough" to meet your standards that were available to the Twins. That's all. Now , in retrospect? Sure. I agree with Mike Wants Wins. Wimmers is very unlikely to become a #2, and it's a reach to project him as a #3. But that's looking retrospectively.

#44 twinswon1991

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 03:49 PM

Wow, Cain is a #2? High standards.



Most experts and scouts say there are 10-15 #1's in all of baseball.

Turn down the volume when you watch Dick and Bert because they'll try to convince you Pavano is an ace because he gets the ball on opening day and Hamels is a #3 cuz he starts game 3 of the season.

#45 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 04:01 PM

Wow, Cain is a #2? High standards.


More like ridiculous standards. Cain is a 27 year old pitcher with a 125 ERA+. He has had two outstanding seasons and a few very good seasons.

Hes a #1.

#46 DPJ

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 04:13 PM

DPJ, YOU'RE the one who said Wimmers was destined to be a back-end guy unless he gained 5-6 MPH on his fastball. MOST, not some, but MOST analysts described his ceiling as higher. Two of those analysts have been mentioned in this thread. No analysts have been mentioned that supported your opinion that he was so obviously no better than a back-end guy. So, it's OK for you to have that opinion, but that doesn't support a conclusion that it was a bad pick. I was challenging you to come up with some alternative names- pitchers that throw "hard enough" to meet your standards that were available to the Twins. That's all.


He's a backend guy, if you really want to nit pick between a 4-5 pitcher go right ahead. He wasn't a one, he was't a two and chances are he wasn't a 3. He was a guy that would get to the majors quickly and contribute. He never was gonna be a great pitcher, but a solid cost controlled arm that wouldn't kill everytime ala pre-Target Field Blackburn.

#47 twinswon1991

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 04:16 PM

More like ridiculous standards. Cain is a 27 year old pitcher with a 125 ERA+. He has had two outstanding seasons and a few very good seasons.

Hes a #1.


He is a good pitcher having a great year. If he were doing this for the Twins Dick n Bert would have him enshrined in the Twins HOF with Diamond after this year.

He is a strong #2 with the Hamels, Gallardo, Beckett, Haren, Wilson, and Bumgardners of the world.

Edited by twinswon1991, 17 July 2012 - 04:27 PM.


#48 Pius Jefferson

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 04:31 PM

Most experts and scouts say there are 10-15 #1's in all of baseball.

Turn down the volume when you watch Dick and Bert because they'll try to convince you Pavano is an ace because he gets the ball on opening day and Hamels is a #3 cuz he starts game 3 of the season.



Do you have a list of these 10-15 #1 starters in baseball that don't include Matt Cain?

#49 drjim

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 04:31 PM

He is a good pitcher having a great year. If he were doing this for the Twins Dick n Bert would have him enshrined in the Twins HOF eith Diamond after this year.

He is a strong #2 with the Hamels, Gallardo, Beckett, Haren, Wilson, and Bumgardners of the world.


I don't see what this has to do with Dick and Bert. Dude has gone 217, 217, 223, 221 IP the past 4 years with good eras, solid k rate and numbers that are getting better this year as he is entering his prime. He is a top 5 pitcher in baseball, the favorite to win the NL Cy Young. How is that not an ace?

I generally agree on the others, mostly because the rest of them have had injury concerns and Bumgarner is still a little young.

#50 twinswon1991

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 04:46 PM

Do you have a list of these 10-15 #1 starters in baseball that don't include Matt Cain?


Here are guys off the top of my head (I'm sure I'll forget someone obvious) who I would rather have than Cain starting the Twins 1 game WC playoff game in 2012: Kershaw, Lee, Halladay, Price, CC, Felix, Verlander, Strausburg, Grienke, Weaver. If I had more time to look at the stats I probably could come up with several more but then comes the next group of 10-30 pitchers that would definitely include Cain. If I had one of the Aces start the Twins WC game I would love to have Cain start game 1 of the ALCS.

I would also vote Cain #2 for the CY this year behind RA and he may end up #1 in the end. I don't feel that the last 3 months has made him go from a strong #2 to an ace. I might chance my mind if he keeps this up the rest of the way. It is crazy how he has been able to outperform his peripherals year in and year out but the NL West lineups and the ballpark are HUGE bonuses for him.

Edited by twinswon1991, 17 July 2012 - 04:49 PM.


#51 Thrylos

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 04:48 PM

Wimmers in 2010 was not a well-kept secret. At the time, we believed he'd join the staff with Gibson... he was just like the good Kevin Slowey. .


Not. Even. Close. The "good Kevin Slowey" was average Greg Maddux-like. One of the biggest wastes (for misdiagnosed and mistreated injury reasons, which created a lot of friction with GardyNAndy) in the recent Twins' history
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#52 edavis0308

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 04:50 PM

DPJ, YOU'RE the one who said Wimmers was destined to be a back-end guy unless he gained 5-6 MPH on his fastball. MOST, not some, but MOST analysts described his ceiling as higher. Two of those analysts have been mentioned in this thread. No analysts have been mentioned that supported your opinion that he was so obviously no better than a back-end guy. So, it's OK for you to have that opinion, but that doesn't support a conclusion that it was a bad pick. I was challenging you to come up with some alternative names- pitchers that throw "hard enough" to meet your standards that were available to the Twins. That's all.

Now , in retrospect? Sure. I agree with Mike Wants Wins. Wimmers is very unlikely to become a #2, and it's a reach to project him as a #3. But that's looking retrospectively.


Sweet Jesus can some of you learn how to use Reply with Quote?

#53 twinswon1991

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 04:51 PM

Not. Even. Close. The "good Kevin Slowey" was average Greg Maddux-like. One of the biggest wastes (for misdiagnosed and mistreated injury reasons, which created a lot of friction with GardyNAndy) in the recent Twins' history


Gardy/Andy and the medical staff also killed Baker's chances of being a really good MLB pitcher. I would've loved to see what they could've done in another organization.

#54 DaveW

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 04:55 PM

Gardy/Andy and the medical staff also killed Baker's chances of being a really good MLB pitcher. I would've loved to see what they could've done in another organization.


This might take the cake for worst post of the year.

#55 DaveW

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 04:57 PM

Not. Even. Close. The "good Kevin Slowey" was average Greg Maddux-like. One of the biggest wastes (for misdiagnosed and mistreated injury reasons, which created a lot of friction with GardyNAndy) in the recent Twins' history


Kevin Slowey = Greg Maddux.

Got it. I forgot the time Maddux was 28 years old, traded/released by 2 different teams and posting a 5.14 in AAA.

#56 DaveW

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 05:00 PM

More like ridiculous standards. Cain is a 27 year old pitcher with a 125 ERA+. He has had two outstanding seasons and a few very good seasons.

Hes a #1.


Past 4 years, 131 ERA+ Averaging 230 IP a year, 1.090 WHIP. That is definitely a #1.

Also it is possible for a team to posses two number 1s, the Giants are a good example if Lincecum starts coming back to form.

Trying to put a cap on "There can only be 15 #1's in baseball" seems futile.

#57 twinswon1991

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 05:05 PM

This might take the cake for worst post of the year.




I am waiting for your rebuttal when you defend Gardy/Andy's track record in helping pitchers improve and your defense of the Twins medical staff. This should be good!

#58 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 05:14 PM

Trying to put a cap on "There can only be 15 #1's in baseball" seems futile.


Particularly when we're in the middle of a pitching revival in baseball. The "old rules" no longer apply, especially bad ones.

#59 DaveW

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 05:34 PM

I am waiting for your rebuttal when you defend Gardy/Andy's track record in helping pitchers improve and your defense of the Twins medical staff. This should be good!


How about you point out all the pitchers who vastly improved when they left the Twins?

Pitchers get hurt, we have had a bad run of it over the past few years, they should examine the training staff and possibly make some changes, but it should be noted that the Royals have had 6 players end up getting Tommy John surgery this year, pitchers getting hurt is hardly a phenomenon that only effects the Twins.

#60 fetch

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 05:43 PM

2010 Liriano was a #3? that's even higher standards than Matt Cain as a 2