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Posted 16 July 2012 - 12:19 PM
Posted 16 July 2012 - 12:36 PM
Yeah, I think Aaron was arguing that the variation in Lirano's performance is normal. It's probably a question that could be answered quantitatively, for example, what does the run distribution by inning for a typical starting pitcher look like? Perhaps for a guy with a ~5 ERA it's something like 0 1 0 2 0 1 0, for example (specifically, you'd be looking at the standard deviation of runs by inning). For Liriano, every time it seems to be 0 0 0 0 0 0 5. It's hard to say for sure, but I would guess that either he's a head case or there's something about his pitching style that makes huge innings more likely.
Part of it might be that he's struggling with his mechanics more when pitching out of the stretch.
For his career, hitters' OPS against Liriano improves from .659 to .761 when there are runners on.
Posted 16 July 2012 - 12:55 PM
Compared to the league average increase, which is only 30-ish points.
Right, just about every pitcher is somewhat worse with runners on. But the difference with bases empty and with runners on for Liriano would indicate that either having runners on gets in his head, or pitching out of the stretch makes it more difficult for him to locate his pitches. Or, most likely, some of both.
Posted 16 July 2012 - 07:55 PM
Meh, everybody knows that Ultimate Headcase Rating numbers aren't reliable until the player has played at least three consecutive seasons with a live chicken strapped to his head.
edit: Son of a bitch...
Will the chicken help him keep his balance, reducing the chance of falling over?
Posted 16 July 2012 - 08:05 PM
What I just typed is probably an opinion, not a fact. I mean, I'm usually right, so you should maybe assume it is or will be a fact soon, but that's up to you.