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Revere's Plate Discipline

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#1 Curt

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Posted 12 July 2012 - 11:55 AM

Ben Revere draws very few walks. His BB% is 4.4% compared to the league average of 8.3%. That is a fact demonstrated by the data.

I have read a number of comments that he has poor plate discipline or is overly aggressive. Do the stats support this as well?

Does he swing at too many pitches?

1. His o-Swing% (swings at pitches outside of strike zone) is very average. 29.6% compared to league average of 29.7%.

2. His z-Swing% (swings at pitches inside the strike zone) is pretty low. 51.6% compared to league average of 63.9%.

3. Overall, his Swing% is 39.9%. League average is 45.2%.


Then why doesn't he draw walks? Because he hits the ball and puts it in play.

1. His o-Contact% (makes contact with pitches swung at outside the strike zone) is 82.4%. The league average is 68.1%.

2. His z-Contact% (makes contact with pitches swung at inside the strike zone) is 98.4% (!). The league average is 87.4%.

3. His overall Contact% is 92.1%. The league average is 80.5%.

4. His foul-ball strike percentage is 19% while the league average is 27%.

5. His ball-in-play percentage is 39% while the league average is 30%.


So, he doesn't draw walks because he makes contact at a high rate and puts the ball in play at a high rate when he does make contact. He literally is too good at putting the ball in play!

Can he draw more walks. Maybe. How about this?

1. Improve o-Swing. As a low power hitter, he needs to be more selective than the average player. Plouffe 28.3%, Mauer 24.7%, Carroll 23.4 (18.4% for career), Span 21.9% and Willingham 20.5% all have better percentages than Revere.

2. Work at fouling off borderline pitches rather than put them in play. This will lengthen the at-bat improving the opportunity to get four balls.


#2 Riverbrian

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Posted 12 July 2012 - 12:11 PM

Ben Revere draws very few walks. His BB% is 4.4% compared to the league average of 8.3%. That is a fact demonstrated by the data.

I have read a number of comments that he has poor plate discipline or is overly aggressive. Do the stats support this as well?

Does he swing at too many pitches?

1. His o-Swing% (swings at pitches outside of strike zone) is very average. 29.6% compared to league average of 29.7%.

2. His z-Swing% (swings at pitches inside the strike zone) is pretty low. 51.6% compared to league average of 63.9%.

3. Overall, his Swing% is 39.9%. League average is 45.2%.


Then why doesn't he draw walks? Because he hits the ball and puts it in play.

1. His o-Contact% (makes contact with pitches swung at outside the strike zone) is 82.4%. The league average is 68.1%.

2. His z-Contact% (makes contact with pitches swung at inside the strike zone) is 98.4% (!). The league average is 87.4%.

3. His overall Contact% is 92.1%. The league average is 80.5%.

4. His foul-ball strike percentage is 19% while the league average is 27%.

5. His ball-in-play percentage is 39% while the league average is 30%.


So, he doesn't draw walks because he makes contact at a high rate and puts the ball in play at a high rate when he does make contact. He literally is too good at putting the ball in play!

Can he draw more walks. Maybe. How about this?

1. Improve o-Swing. As a low power hitter, he needs to be more selective than the average player. Plouffe 28.3%, Mauer 24.7%, Carroll 23.4 (18.4% for career), Span 21.9% and Willingham 20.5% all have better percentages than Revere.

2. Work at fouling off borderline pitches rather than put them in play. This will lengthen the at-bat improving the opportunity to get four balls.


Nice job Curt.

Do you have any info on the percentage of strikes thrown to Ben in comparison to the league average. I could be wrong but I suspect that Ben sees more strikes than average and that will also add to his lack of walks.

Regardless, fouling off some pitches will help because in order to get walks you need to see more pitches and if they get put in play with a swing or two... That kinda stops that train.

#3 ALessKosherScott

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Posted 12 July 2012 - 12:15 PM

I don't think Revere's plate discipline is a problem at all. His swinging strike percentage is currently sitting at 3.2. To put that in perspective, Mauer is sitting at 4.0%. He doesn't walk because there's no reason for a pitcher to not groove him a meatball when he's down in the count. The worst case scenario is a well-placed ball becomes a double. If he starts hitting more doubles and the odd ball over the fence, his walk rate will jump because pitchers will have to start being a little more fine with their pitches. If not, he's still a useful player.

#4 Riverbrian

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Posted 12 July 2012 - 12:27 PM

I don't think Revere's plate discipline is a problem at all. His swinging strike percentage is currently sitting at 3.2. To put that in perspective, Mauer is sitting at 4.0%. He doesn't walk because there's no reason for a pitcher to not groove him a meatball when he's down in the count. The worst case scenario is a well-placed ball becomes a double. If he starts hitting more doubles and the odd ball over the fence, his walk rate will jump because pitchers will have to start being a little more fine with their pitches. If not, he's still a useful player.


Exactly... I've been driving that point for awhile. I wonder if the stats back that up with a higher strike percentage.

I could be wrong. I'm curious to see if I am.

#5 James

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Posted 12 July 2012 - 12:42 PM

Exactly... I've been driving that point for awhile. I wonder if the stats back that up with a higher strike percentage.

I could be wrong. I'm curious to see if I am.

I would love to see this data as well. We have pretty good anecdotal evidence that pitchers aren't afraid to throw to him, but I would love to see some data behind it.

Curt- This was a very good write up. Thanks for that.

You can come up with statistics to prove anything. Forty percent of all people know that.


#6 Curt

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Posted 12 July 2012 - 02:37 PM

Do you have any info on the percentage of strikes thrown to Ben in comparison to the league average. I could be wrong but I suspect that Ben sees more strikes than average and that will also add to his lack of walks.


This is from FanGraphs.com as is much of the data I posted above. Zone% is the percent of pitches in the strike zone. I've included all Twins with 100+ PA. This shows Revere sees about 1.5% more strikes than the league average.



[TD="width: 86"]Player[/TD]
[TD="width: 86"]Zone%[/TD]





























































Parmalee 38.20%
Doumit 41.40%
Morneau 41.70%
Mauer 42.30%
Willingham 44.60%
Casilla 45.10%
Span 46.40%
Revere 46.90%
Plouffe 48.30%
Dozier 49.00%
Carroll 50.10%
Valencia 50.90%


Twins Avg 45.60%
AL Avg 45.38%

#7 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 12 July 2012 - 03:25 PM

Kind of curious how Plouffe will adjust when he starts seeing less strikes.

#8 John Bonnes

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Posted 12 July 2012 - 03:50 PM

This is from FanGraphs.com as is much of the data I posted above. Zone% is the percent of pitches in the strike zone. I've included all Twins with 100+ PA. This shows Revere sees about 1.5% more strikes than the league average.




[TD="width: 86"]Zone%
[/TD]





























































Player
Parmalee
38.20%
Doumit
41.40%
Morneau
41.70%
Mauer
42.30%
Willingham
44.60%
Casilla
45.10%
Span
46.40%
Revere
46.90%
Plouffe
48.30%
Dozier
49.00%
Carroll
50.10%
Valencia
50.90%




Twins Avg
45.60%
AL Avg
45.38%



That is a lot lower percentage than I would have anticipated. It's weird that Carroll has a higher percentage but comes away with so many additional walks. Is he just more willing to take strike 1 and strike 2 in the hopes that he gets a walk? Is that what is being implied here?

#9 Snortwood

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Posted 12 July 2012 - 04:05 PM

Last year it felt as if 2 or 3 times a game Ben was dribbling it back to the mound. This year he has a game or 2 like that and then BAM! he's getting 3 or 4 hits for a few games and all over the bases true with mostly singles and maybe an occasional walk or hbp. But he's busy on the bases. Remember - we talk about the best hitters in the world in the MLB (c.f., Nishioka, JLB hitting champ = <.200 MLB) and tend to think there's a way to improve on .320 when, in fact, hitting for a living is very VERY difficult because it's highly competitive out there and if Ben can eliminate one bad thing and add one good thing per year, at that rate we're talking about someone with the aptitude to be an absolutely great HOF maybe Tony Gwynn caliber hitter. Let's repair one thing at a time. This year, eliminate those dribblers back to the mound and let's get hard grounders and liners. Next year, future years, cut back on the fly balls and get some gappers and greater selectivity. OTOH, if Ben stays about where he's at, a .320 singles hitter with great speed hey! that's awfully good as is and top of the order stuff. Like Bill Wigglestick said, "Striving to better oft we mar what's well."

#10 Curt

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Posted 12 July 2012 - 04:45 PM

That is a lot lower percentage than I would have anticipated. It's weird that Carroll has a higher percentage but comes away with so many additional walks. Is he just more willing to take strike 1 and strike 2 in the hopes that he gets a walk? Is that what is being implied here?


It is interesting to compare Revere to Carroll because, like Revere, he has little power, unlike Revere, Carroll walks a lot, 10.3%.

WARNING: Data overload ahead.



[TD="width: 86"][/TD]
[TD="width: 27"][/TD]
[TD="width: 51, bgcolor: #E6E6E6"]Carroll[/TD]
[TD="width: 51, bgcolor: #E6E6E6"]Revere[/TD]
[TD="width: 51, bgcolor: #E6E6E6"]AL Avg[/TD]
[TD="width: 25"][/TD]
[TD="width: 689, bgcolor: #E6E6E6"]Definition[/TD]


[TD="bgcolor: #E6E6E6"]Pit/PA[/TD]








[TD="bgcolor: #E6E6E6"]Str%[/TD]








[TD="bgcolor: #E6E6E6"]L/Str[/TD]








[TD="bgcolor: #E6E6E6"]S/Str[/TD]








[TD="bgcolor: #E6E6E6"]F/Str[/TD]








[TD="bgcolor: #E6E6E6"]I/Str[/TD]








[TD="bgcolor: #E6E6E6"]AS/Str[/TD]








[TD="bgcolor: #E6E6E6"]I/Bll[/TD]








[TD="bgcolor: #E6E6E6"]AS/Pit[/TD]








[TD="bgcolor: #E6E6E6"]Con[/TD]








[TD="bgcolor: #E6E6E6"]1stS[/TD]








[TD="bgcolor: #E6E6E6"]L/SO[/TD]

































































































3.98 3.47 3.85 Pitches per Plate Appearance
62% 64% 63% Strike Percentage. Includes both pitches in the zone and those swung at out of the zone. Strikes / Total Pitches.
40% 36% 29% Strikes Looking / Strikes. All strikes looking divided by all strikes.
6% 6% 15% Swinging Strike Percentage. Strikes Swinging (w/o contact) / Total Strikes.
23% 19% 27% Foul Ball Strikes Percentage. Pitches Fouled Off / Total Strikes Seen.
31% 39% 30% Ball In Play Percentage. Balls put into Play / Total Strikes.
60% 64% 71% Swung at Strikes Percentage. (Inplay + Foul + Swinging Strikes) / Total Strikes.
0% 0% 1% Intentional Ball Percentage. Intentional Balls / All Balls.
37% 41% 45% Percentage of Pitches Swung At. (Inplay + Foul + Swinging Strikes) / Total Pitches.
90% 91% 79% Contact Percentage. (Foul + Inplay Strikes) / (Foul + Inplay + Swinging Strikes).
12% 10% 25% First Pitch Swinging Percentage. First Pitch Swinging / PA.
38% 38% 24% Strikeout Looking Percentage. Strikeouts Looking / All Strikeouts.
O-Swing% 23.4% 29.6% 29.7% The percentage of pitches a batter swings at outside the strike zone.
Z-Swing% 50.8% 51.6% 63.9% The percentage of pitches a batter swings at inside the strike zone.
Swing% 37.1% 39.9% 45.2% The overall percentage of pitches a batter swings at.
O-Contact% 83.7% 82.4% 68.1% The percentage of pitches a batter makes contact with outside the strike zone when swinging the bat.
Z-Contact% 95.5% 98.4% 87.4% The percentage of pitches a batter makes contact with inside the strike zone when swinging the bat.
Contact% 91.8% 92.1% 80.5% The overall percentage of a batter makes contact with when swinging the bat.
Zone%
50.1% 46.9% 45.4% The overall percentage of pitches a batter sees inside the strike zone.
F-Strike% 59.6% 58.6% 59.0% The percentage of first pitch strikes.
SwStr% 3.0% 3.2% 8.6% The percentage of total pitches a batter swings and misses on.

#11 drjim

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Posted 12 July 2012 - 04:51 PM

Interesting stuff, thanks for posting Curt.

#12 glunn

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Posted 12 July 2012 - 05:15 PM

This is a very interesting and educational thread. Thanks, Curt.

#13 Riverbrian

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Posted 12 July 2012 - 06:55 PM

This is from FanGraphs.com as is much of the data I posted above. Zone% is the percent of pitches in the strike zone. I've included all Twins with 100+ PA. This shows Revere sees about 1.5% more strikes than the league average.


































































Player Zone%
Parmalee 38.20%
Doumit 41.40%
Morneau 41.70%
Mauer 42.30%
Willingham 44.60%
Casilla 45.10%
Span 46.40%
Revere 46.90%
Plouffe 48.30%
Dozier 49.00%
Carroll 50.10%
Valencia 50.90%


Twins Avg 45.60%
AL Avg 45.38%


I stand corrected... Nothing here to support my claim that Ben is getting cookies. Although when you consider that Ben has only struck out 16 times that will obviously lessen his strike percentage because he does not see the third strike typically.

I thnk curt nailed it with his first post. Ben just makes absurd contact. Couple that with his speed and you've got a fun player.

If he keeps up that contact rate and betters his discipline by avoiding the contact outside the zone and learns to foul off some tougher pitches. The walk rate should improve. And his BA can even go higher.

Of course that's also like saying that if Liriano learns to spot his slider perfectly and drops his whip a full point... His era will improve. Easier said than done.

Last year Ben did hit a bunch of dribblers back to the pitcher and he still has that happening but that is a by product of what he has been taught. All coaches tell a guy with Bens speed and power to beat the ball into the ground. The middle is the best place for that. When you are shooting for the middle the pitcher can get in the way.

Looking at Carrolls numbers. They are hard to explain. High percentage Strikes thrown... High percentage contact and low percentage of balls fouled off. Yet decent Walk total.

Excellent stuff Curt... I applaud your efforts. Thank you.

Edited by Riverbrian, 12 July 2012 - 06:58 PM.


#14 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 12 July 2012 - 07:25 PM

Last year it felt as if 2 or 3 times a game Ben was dribbling it back to the mound. This year he has a game or 2 like that and then BAM! he's getting 3 or 4 hits for a few games and all over the bases true with mostly singles and maybe an occasional walk or hbp. But he's busy on the bases.

Remember - we talk about the best hitters in the world in the MLB (c.f., Nishioka, JLB hitting champ = <.200 MLB) and tend to think there's a way to improve on .320 when, in fact, hitting for a living is very VERY difficult because it's highly competitive out there and if Ben can eliminate one bad thing and add one good thing per year, at that rate we're talking about someone with the aptitude to be an absolutely great HOF maybe Tony Gwynn caliber hitter. Let's repair one thing at a time. This year, eliminate those dribblers back to the mound and let's get hard grounders and liners. Next year, future years, cut back on the fly balls and get some gappers and greater selectivity.

OTOH, if Ben stays about where he's at, a .320 singles hitter with great speed hey! that's awfully good as is and top of the order stuff. Like Bill Wigglestick said, "Striving to better oft we mar what's well."


Let's not get carried away or anything. Ben is a super speedy guy who relies on making contact... much like his pitch to contact guys on the mound, there's a very very very fine line he needs to walk in order to remain productive. It isn't as simple as removing one bad thing and adding a good one, not to mention, opponents will adjust.

#15 70charger

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Posted 12 July 2012 - 11:18 PM

As said before, if you're as fast as Revere, any coach will tell you to smack the ball and run it out with your speed. I'm pleased with his contact rate; he's hit at every stop in the minors, and I never thought he wouldn't hit in the majors. He's blowing me away with .320, but even with some regression to the mean, he can still be a dangerous table setter. Add his outfield range, and you're looking at one heck of a solid piece. Going back to the Carroll/Revere comparison, one of the (few) differences I saw is Carroll's higher tendency to foul off pitches. Do you think maybe he is better at fouling off the marginal pitches to keep the at bat alive, thus making it statistically more likely that he'll draw a walk? After all, you'll never draw a walk if hit a marginal pitch poorly in play; you might draw a walk if you flip a marginal pitch foul and live to see another one.

#16 ALessKosherScott

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Posted 13 July 2012 - 05:19 AM

I stand corrected... Nothing here to support my claim that Ben is getting cookies. Although when you consider that Ben has only struck out 16 times that will obviously lessen his strike percentage because he does not see the third strike typically.

I thnk curt nailed it with his first post. Ben just makes absurd contact. Couple that with his speed and you've got a fun player.

Looking at Carrolls numbers. They are hard to explain. High percentage Strikes thrown... High percentage contact and low percentage of balls fouled off. Yet decent Walk total.


It's off, to an extent. The pitcher isn't going to throw Revere the cookie on every pitch. He's going to throw it when he's down in the count or risking a walk to Revere. Curt's numbers take a look over every pitch. But what happens on the ultimate payoff pitch-- 3-2? Revere gets strikes 84% of the time. Using Carroll as a control, he gets a strike 76.1% of the time. But it gets more interesting when you look at where the pitches are in the zone.

Here's Revere:
RevereSwing32.jpg

http://pitchfx.texas...12&to=7/11/2012

Here's Carroll:
Carroll32.jpg

http://pitchfx.texas...12&to=7/11/2012

#17 Curt

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Posted 13 July 2012 - 08:16 AM

It's off, to an extent. The pitcher isn't going to throw Revere the cookie on every pitch. He's going to throw it when he's down in the count or risking a walk to Revere. Curt's numbers take a look over every pitch. But what happens on the ultimate payoff pitch-- 3-2? Revere gets strikes 84% of the time. Using Carroll as a control, he gets a strike 76.1% of the time. But it gets more interesting when you look at where the pitches are in the zone.


Nice. Carroll has many more full count opportunities... We can see that Carroll gets to more full counts (46% more) and walks more when he gets there (113% more). We can also see what happens when Revere gets pitches down the middle, an OPS of 1.336.


[TD="width: 51"]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 46"]PA[/TD]
[TD="width: 46"]FC[/TD]
[TD="width: 46"]FC%[/TD]
[TD="width: 46"]BB[/TD]
[TD="width: 46"]BB%[/TD]
[TD="width: 46"]SO[/TD]
[TD="width: 46"]SO%[/TD]
[TD="width: 46"]BA[/TD]
[TD="width: 46"]OBP[/TD]
[TD="width: 46"]SLG[/TD]
[TD="width: 46"]OPS[/TD]





























Carroll 312 46 14.7% 17 37.0% 7 15.2% 0.302 0.408 0.368 0.776
Revere 227 23 10.1% 4 17.4% 0 0.0%
0.579 0.652 0.684 1.336


Carroll sees more strikes than Revere (50.1% to 46.9%) but gets to 3-2 much more often because (?) he swings less, especially at pitches out of the strike zone (23.4% to 29.6%), hits more foul balls (23% to 19%) and puts fewer into play (31% to 39%).

#18 Fanatic Jack

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Posted 13 July 2012 - 08:45 AM

I'm just curious where are all the bloggers who personally attacked Ben Revere last year saying he did not hit for a high enough average and was unable to get on base. Most of them nearly had a heart attack when Span was traded to the Nationals at the deadline last year. I wonder if they need to be called out or if they will just admit they were wrong.

#19 FrodaddyG

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Posted 13 July 2012 - 08:56 AM

I'm just curious where are all the bloggers who personally attacked Ben Revere last year saying he did not hit for a high enough average and was unable to get on base. Most of them nearly had a heart attack when Span was traded to the Nationals at the deadline last year. I wonder if they need to be called out or if they will just admit they were wrong.

I'm no blogger, but Revere hasn't really proven wrong the people who thought his upside was as a defense-oriented singles hitter who needed to be fortunate on his BABIP to succeed. He still can't get an XBH or take a walk to save his life. This year has pretty much been on the upper end of expectations for his production (to this point). If his average creeps down into the .300 range, and his OPS dips back into the 600s, has he really made anyone who deemed him as (ideally) a fourth outfielder eat crow?

#20 jimbo92107

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Posted 13 July 2012 - 09:21 AM

On Base Percentage: Denard Span: .334 Ben Revere: .350 Joe Mauer: .416 I think Revere's doing pretty well.