Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.

Subscribe to Twins Daily Email

Photo

Liriano's Value

  • Please log in to reply
14 replies to this topic

#1 jorgenswest

jorgenswest

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 2,442 posts

Posted 11 July 2012 - 04:10 PM

I am using the work of Sky Andrecheck and Victor Wang to help assess Liriano's value. The work was done in 2009 so the value may be off but the relative value of prospects vs draft pick should be similar.

http://www.beyondthe...er-compensation

With the help of the discussion about compensation, I believe that the Twins would receive one pick for Liriano after the first round (assuming they make a qualifying offer). I hope I am incorrect and they also get the pick forfeited by the signing team.

If it is just one pick, it's value is about 2.6 million. That would be about equivalent to an under 22 grade C pitcher (2.1 million) combined with an under 22 Grade C hitter (0.7 million). The grades studied are taken from John Sickels work. A grade C would be probably be outside a team's top 10 of a typical organization They would not be top 100 BBA prospects.

It appears that the lower bar of Liriano's value is two A-Ball prospects with some upside but no guaranteed future in the major leagues. These guys would not help in 2013. A pitcher close to contributing at the major league level seems out of the question.

Of course, if I understand the new CBA incorrectly and the Twins get two picks the overall value is closer to 8 million raising the bar. The Twins would then expect a team to give up a top 10 pitching prospect (still outside BBA's top 100).

#2 gunnarthor

gunnarthor

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 4,593 posts

Posted 11 July 2012 - 06:29 PM

Under the new CBA, if Liriano was offered arbitration (avg salary of top 125 salaries -estimated to be about 12.5m) and signed with another team, the Twins would get a supp pick and that teams highest pick, so long as it's not a top 10 pick. (P. 89 of this link : http://mlbplayers.ml...cba_english.pdf)

That said, no one would outbid the Twins for Liriano if they offered him arbitration so we'd have him back.

#3 John Bonnes

John Bonnes

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 5,331 posts

Posted 11 July 2012 - 06:34 PM


That said, no one would outbid the Twins for Liriano if they offered him arbitration so we'd have him back.


I'm not 10% sure that's true. I think he would take the offer, but it's possible that a team could offer 3/27 and he would nab that instead.

#4 jorgenswest

jorgenswest

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 2,442 posts

Posted 11 July 2012 - 06:51 PM

I read page 89 again and it is not clear to me that the Twins would receive the forfeited pick. It is not explicitly stated. Until today, I was sure it was two. I have been convinced otherwise. As for timing, Liriano and the Twins will have 5 days following the season to work out an offer. After that Liriano will have accepted or enter free agency. The Twins will be bidding against Liriano's perception of his worth. I agree with John that he might see a three year deal as a safer road even at 8-9 million per year.

#5 Nick Nelson

Nick Nelson

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 2,471 posts

Posted 11 July 2012 - 07:37 PM

I'm not 10% sure that's true. I think he would take the offer, but it's possible that a team could offer 3/27 and he would nab that instead.

A lot of that depends on how he finishes the year, too. Right now that horrible month of April is still inflating his numbers. If he keeps pitching the way he is now for two more months, it will be a lot easier to envision some team offering him a three-year deal. Keep in mind he's still only 28.

#6 Guest_USAFChief_*

Guest_USAFChief_*
  • Guests

Posted 11 July 2012 - 07:43 PM

I'm not 10% sure that's true. I think he would take the offer, but it's possible that a team could offer 3/27 and he would nab that instead.


Why not remove the doubt and offer 3/$24 now? Then you'll know.

#7 Oxtung

Oxtung

    I don't skinny dip. I chunky dunk.

  • Members
  • 1,636 posts

Posted 11 July 2012 - 09:56 PM

Why not remove the doubt and offer 3/$24 now? Then you'll know.


Because nobody wants to see Liriano from April for the next 3 years which at this point could be a very real possibility. You can always trade him and then offer him 3/$24 after the season.

#8 Riverbrian

Riverbrian

    Goofy Moderator

  • Twins Mods
  • 12,793 posts
  • LocationGrand Rapids Michigan

Posted 11 July 2012 - 10:19 PM

A part of me wants Liriano pitching for us in 2013 cuz we need the pitching so bad and we need a staff ace. Another part of me wants him forcibly removed from the clubhouse by armed security personnel and asked never to return. I would love to be a fly on Terry Ryan's cell phone. I would love to know exactly what other clubs think of our boy Frankie. By the way... If I was a fly on Terry Ryan's cell phone... I would also fly into his ear and become... You guessed it... A bug in his ear.

#9 glunn

glunn

    Head Moderator

  • Twins Mods
  • 6,459 posts
  • LocationBeverly Hills, CA

Posted 11 July 2012 - 10:44 PM

A part of me wants Liriano pitching for us in 2013 cuz we need the pitching so bad and we need a staff ace. Another part of me wants him forcibly removed from the clubhouse by armed security personnel and asked never to return.


Well said, Brian. Liriano has huge upside and huge downside. The Twins are desperate for an ace, but Liriano has disappointed multiple times. Liriano has great stuff, but is streaky as hell.

I wish the Twins had a crystal ball.

#10 Riverbrian

Riverbrian

    Goofy Moderator

  • Twins Mods
  • 12,793 posts
  • LocationGrand Rapids Michigan

Posted 12 July 2012 - 08:18 AM

Well said, Brian. Liriano has huge upside and huge downside. The Twins are desperate for an ace, but Liriano has disappointed multiple times. Liriano has great stuff, but is streaky as hell.

I wish the Twins had a crystal ball.


I'd rather have that Crystal Ball for myself. Wouldn't you rather have it in your hands?

A Crystal Ball would have some amazing value. I love my Twins but me first.

#11 nicksaviking

nicksaviking

    Senior Member

  • Twins Mods
  • 6,598 posts

Posted 13 July 2012 - 06:49 AM

Sounds like the Phillies and Cole Hamel's are getting close to an extension. If this works out, the Twins need Milwaukee to sweep Pittsburgh this weekend to get back in the playoff hunt and keep Zack Greinke in a Brewer uniform the rest of the season. Taking the top two pitchers off the board should help the value of the second tier pitchers.

#12 jorgenswest

jorgenswest

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 2,442 posts

Posted 29 July 2012 - 04:25 PM

I am using the work of Sky Andrecheck and Victor Wang to help assess Liriano's value. The work was done in 2009 so the value may be off but the relative value of prospects vs draft pick should be similar.

http://www.beyondthe...er-compensation

With the help of the discussion about compensation, I believe that the Twins would receive one pick for Liriano after the first round (assuming they make a qualifying offer). I hope I am incorrect and they also get the pick forfeited by the signing team.

If it is just one pick, it's value is about 2.6 million. That would be about equivalent to a 22 year old grade C pitcher (2.1 million) combined with a 22 year old Grade C hitter (0.7 million). The grades studied are taken from John Sickels work. A grade C would be probably be outside a team's top 10 of a typical organization They would not be top 100 BBA prospects.


The comment was from more than a week ago, but was pretty close. The Twins as well as other organizations know the value of rental players who have put up about 0 WAR in 2011-2012. Our fan base expected so much more.

#13 gunnarthor

gunnarthor

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 4,593 posts

Posted 29 July 2012 - 05:40 PM

The comment was from more than a week ago, but was pretty close. The Twins as well as other organizations know the value of rental players who have put up about 0 WAR in 2011-2012. Our fan base expected so much more.


Good work. I had hoped we'd get another teams failed starter and have our own reclamation project. So what should we get for Span?

#14 drjim

drjim

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 4,402 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul

Posted 29 July 2012 - 08:16 PM

The comment was from more than a week ago, but was pretty close. The Twins as well as other organizations know the value of rental players who have put up about 0 WAR in 2011-2012. Our fan base expected so much more.


That is a really good analysis, probably should have been required reading for anyone bitching and moaning about this trade. I still want to know what people expected.
Papers...business papers.

#15 70charger

70charger

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,737 posts

Posted 30 July 2012 - 12:14 AM

The comment was from more than a week ago, but was pretty close. The Twins as well as other organizations know the value of rental players who have put up about 0 WAR in 2011-2012. Our fan base expected so much more.


Very nice. Thank you.