73 replies to this topic
Posted 09 July 2012 - 06:33 PM
Vikings & Wolves should be thanking their lucky stars they got money this year. Because Twins should be the poster boys for the "no public money funding a stadium" crowd. Target Field is becoming proof positive that a new stadium does not mean the FO will spend to fix their past decisions / mistakes.
Posted 09 July 2012 - 06:34 PM
Good post, John. If the second half of 2012 continues like the first half, and attendance continues to dwindle, I think we'll see a lower 2013 payroll. But I disagree with the term "fantasies" to describe retaining Liriano. Sure, it's a fantasy when he's great, or even effective, but I'd argue that the prospect of paying him $12.5 million for that other 50 percent of the time when he's one of the worst pitchers in baseball is tough to swallow. He's an interesting case either way.
Posted 09 July 2012 - 06:36 PM
I actually expect that the budget will go up, at least slightly. Some of the extra money allotted to the draft this year will likely go back to the payroll. Besides, just because the money is available, doesn't mean you should spend it. Last year, the free agent crop wasn't exceptionally strong. It appears it could be stronger and deeper this year. A 2nd consideration is that many of these free agents can't be signed to one year contracts. If you are going to lose some of your current players because of a long term free agent signing, you better be pretty sure your farm system can cover that.
Posted 09 July 2012 - 06:41 PM
One minor correction: the numbers in USA Today only included those on major league rosters, so that $94M didn't include Nishioka. If that's added in, the payroll for this year is $97M. That means they can spend an additional $21M to what is listed in your article and keep payroll same as last year.
Posted 09 July 2012 - 07:49 PM
They will have to sign one if not Two FA starting pitchers. Hopefully they won't be of the Jason Marquis caliber. Terry Ryan wants to win, he knows he needs pitching to win. The Pohlands know that without a winner, revenues will continue to drop. I don't think that we will see a drop in payroll. It may not top 100 million, but it will be above 85 million.
Posted 09 July 2012 - 07:50 PM
Cot's has them at $100,435,000. I don't think that includes Zumaya. The USA Today data may not have included Nishioka and Marquis who were in minors. If correct, the difference might be closer to 11.5 million which may have signed Edwin Jackson. It is questionable whether he would have come to Minnesota for the same pay as he received from the Nationals so it may not be a good comp. Edwin Jackson helps but it does not turn the Twins into a winning team. As for next year, I really hope that they do 1 or 2 larger contracts for a more elite player instead of the 3-6 million value contracts. For every Doumit who returns good value, we get three guys like Nishioka, Marquis and Carroll. I would prefer the Twins get one pitcher for the money those 4 get and fill in the other three spots with team control players or minor league deal guys. The same goes with the contracts for Span and Blackburn. They both signed what was portrayed to be team friendly seals to avoid arbitration. Are we really better off? Sure Span would be getting a good return next year but we are stuck with Blackburn's bad deal. You always overpay for top players and risk their injury. Let's just stop paying 3-6 million for the mediocre or injury risk players. Let's risk it on an elite player instead. Of course, the Twins have already started on the other path. Instead of putting every resource towards pitching first, they signed Doumit to another friendly contract. I understand that I am in the minority and maybe the sole voice on Doumit's contract. Is it really reasonable to project two more healthy seasons from Doumit? What does that leave them for pitching? I don't know, but I want the pitcher who is worth 3.5 million more than the one we get.
Posted 09 July 2012 - 08:13 PM
Carroll? I think he is a good pickup and that Terry Ryan actually had a really good year in free agency. There wasn't a ton of free agent pitchers that would have done anything for us last winter. This year is a much better year for that, Ryan knew that. Look for them to make strong run at Greinke who will go to a smaller market team. I also think they will gamble on Gibson being ready to help when healthy. You also haven't accounted for them picking up a pitcher through a trade.
Posted 09 July 2012 - 08:27 PM
So, if we have $21M available to maintain payroll at it's current level, does that have any implications for picking up options? Baker has a 9.25M option, and while he will be recovering from TJ surgery, I think a Baker at 90% is still better than a AAAA pitcher.
Posted 09 July 2012 - 08:38 PM
What if they're able to acquire a C-prospect for Morneau and only have to pick up, say, $4 million of his 2013 contract? There is $9.5 million more available. I would like to keep Jamey Carroll around because he's been solid and a good influence and all that, but there's some money there. What if they're able to trade Span for three decent prospects. There's $4 million 2013 and more for the following year. I'm one who agrees that payroll is a little overrated. Just have to make good decisions and then get players to perform.
Posted 09 July 2012 - 08:40 PM
Hopefully Span and Morneau are traded. That clears 18.75 unless the Twins chip in. There are good prospects to be had!! They could then stick Parmelee at 1B because he is more than ready. He just needs playing time. Mastroianni wouldn't be an awful fill-in in my opinion for Span. Call up Clete because he doesn't deserve AAA ABs.That would help change the organizational arrangement of the minors. It's a big problem for outfielders.
Edited by YourHouseIsMyHouse, 09 July 2012 - 08:44 PM.
Posted 10 July 2012 - 06:05 AM
Unless Baker wants to stay here, this isn't going to be a case where we can just renegotiate with him... He has no incentive to do so. We will have to decline that option and fight for him in FA, but I could see a lot of teams going after him strong. With 21 M to spend, we don't have enough. We need more than 2 decent pitchers. We need 3. I'd be OK with one of them being a 1 year "prove it" deal for something like what Bedard got this year, but we need something more stable too. 21M isn't going to get you two very good FA pitchers. It will get one 1 and a value type pitcher.
Posted 10 July 2012 - 06:49 AM
Unless Baker wants to stay here, this isn't going to be a case where we can just renegotiate with him... He has no incentive to do so. We will have to decline that option and fight for him in FA, but I could see a lot of teams going after him strong.
If teams haven't been going strong after guys like Dan Haren and Roy Oswalt in recent years, there is no way they go hard after Scott Baker.
Posted 10 July 2012 - 07:21 AM
The Twins should have gotten some insurance coverage on Baker's deal(if they had it covered) so that's a couple of dollars to re-invest in something. Discouraging. As posted elsewhere, other franchises are making the moves to draw fans and get better. Because WINNING still is the best draw for a team. It just seems like the Twins don't get that.
Posted 10 July 2012 - 07:25 AM
I'd absolutely bring back Scott Baker on a low-base, high-incentive contract that would include a second year option.
+1. I believe that Scott and Mr. Ryan will work out something beneficial to both sides. Seth, there was language in the old CBA that restricted the amount a player could be cut, etc. Are you aware of any limitations in the new CBA that could make working something reasonable out with Baker impossible?
Posted 10 July 2012 - 07:39 AM
So under this back-of-the-napkin analysis, Mauer is taking up almost 1/3 of payroll? First, I don't think the Twins would put themselves in that kind of situation. Also, if I'm Mauer, and Terry Ryan slashes payroll even further than he's already done, I might request a trade to a team that might win a championship in the next 6 years.
Posted 10 July 2012 - 07:41 AM
Would you package Liriano with Morneau to get a team to eat all of Morneau's owed money? That feels like a hefty price to pay to just shed payroll, but if it frees up that much extra money to go after players that are part of the long-term solution, I think it needs to be considered. Now, I think we could probably get a couple mid-grade prospects as well, but the question is, would you do it for nothing (in terms of prospects)