I think that Rosario is a valuable player due to his defense, and overall decent bat/speed. I am surprised at how excited and optimistic so many in here are about his future though. And yes, statistically '14 Santana and '15 Rosario are very similar with the bat. Santana was actually more successful though.
Santana walked at a terribly low rate (4.4%/22.8%) and struck out far too often, especially for a non-power hitter....Rosario is actually walking less and striking out more (3.1%/24.2%) than Santana did. Yes, Rosario has more power potential than Santana, but he doesn't profile as having good power by any means, especially for a corner OF. Keep in mind Santana plays/played up the middle at SS/CF.
Rosarios 2nd half so far are even worse, and that he is already regressing. His 2nd half bb%/K% is 1.6%/26.2%, with 269/279/496 avg/obp/slg. I will admit that he is slugging well, and has been helped by 6 triples in the past two months. Overall, it is not a promising profile for a corner OF'er.
He MIGHT cut down on the k% and he MIGHT raise his bb%, but not likely to a degree that wouldn't still make him a hacker. He might add a little bit more power, but is probably a 15-18 hr max guy. The problem is that when you dont walk and you strikeout a lot, you rely so much on luck, which can be flukey. I wouldn't be surprised if next year he hit .285/.320/.450 with 15 HR's next year or in the near future. But it wouldn't surprise me if he hits .260/.265/.325 either. A player like him might just flip-flop between those types of numbers from year to year, basically dependent on how things drop and what not.
Go to any sortable leaderboard, like Fangraphs, and look at the guys with a 4% or less BB%, and over a 20% K%, which he's actually worse in both areas. Look at those names, any year, and it's a pretty bleak picture. Most of the guys that did fairly well with those rates in a season, rarely sustained their success.
He is not a future all-star OF'er though, like someone stated. Even in his good years, he will not likely come close to the numbers of the best AL OF's. Like I said, useful player, and I like him vs RHP's, as like a #5-7 hitter, but he should probably make a super platoon with Hicks in the future.
Yes Seth, he will be "fine," but "fine" but as a hitter he likely never "good" compared to the other top corner OF's. Nice glove though.
Edited by ShouldaCouldaWoulda, 23 August 2015 - 01:19 AM.