Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.
Photo

Rosario (2015) = Santana (2014) Yes or No

babib walks strikeouts speed fluke
  • Please log in to reply
53 replies to this topic

#41 whydidnt

whydidnt

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 564 posts

Posted 21 August 2015 - 10:14 AM

I agree that this season is likely a good indicator of his true ability, but the K:BB ratio is a red flag. He isn't likely to collapse the way Santana did, but it wouldn't be surprising to see some regression until he matures and adjusts. The concern I have is that his skill set doesn't align with what you typically want to see from a corner outfielder. He isn't a big power guy, and there are very few players that excel offensively that can't control the strike zone. He may be an exception, but I don't think we've seen enough of him to know for sure. 

 

How did everyone posting feel about Santana last year?  I think there was a lot of optimism about him, with the general consensus that he would regress, but not fall on his face, correct? Does that give you any pause as we consider guys like Rosario?

  • gil4, ShouldaCouldaWoulda and Twinfan603 like this

#42 gil4

gil4

    The irrational optimism is regressing to the mean

  • Member
  • 2,066 posts
  • LocationOklahoma

Posted 21 August 2015 - 10:30 AM

 

I agree that this season is likely a good indicator of his true ability, but the K:BB ratio is a red flag. He isn't likely to collapse the way Santana did, but it wouldn't be surprising to see some regression until he matures and adjusts. The concern I have is that his skill set doesn't align with what you typically want to see from a corner outfielder. He isn't a big power guy, and there are very few players that excel offensively that can't control the strike zone. He may be an exception, but I don't think we've seen enough of him to know for sure. 

 

How did everyone posting feel about Santana last year?  I think there was a lot of optimism about him, with the general consensus that he would regress, but not fall on his face, correct? Does that give you any pause as we consider guys like Rosario?

Good point on the K:BB, although his minor league record is better in that area.It's something he has to prove at the MLB level, not something he has to learn from scratch.

 

Santana's performance screamed fluke.We didn't expect him to fall completely on his face (with the bat), but there was some recognition of the peril of moving him back to a position he wasn't very good at.Rosario is a different guy, he's not going to have to move positions, and his performance looks like natural progression.The only thing that gives me pause is the drug suspension he had a couple of years ago.


#43 nicksaviking

nicksaviking

    Billy G.O.A.T

  • Moderator
  • 15,835 posts

Posted 21 August 2015 - 10:56 AM

Rosario's BABIP is high, but Santana's was still 50 points higher last year.Also, Santana likley wouldn't have been as poor this year had his LD% not dropped from 26% to 20%.Speaking of which, Rosario's LD% in 2015 is also only 20% and that just seems low to me, watching him play and his swing I would have guessed a much higher percentage.Perhaps one of our minor league guru's can shed some light, but wasn't he considered a linedrive hitter in the minors? Personally, I'd expect that to improve.

 

All that said, I don't like his lack of on base skills.If there's a logjam in the corner outfield and a team is calling the Twins looking to trade, it might be Rosario who I may be most willing to move. 

  • rghrbek and Twinfan603 like this

#44 Mike Sixel

Mike Sixel

    Now living in Oregon

  • Member
  • 31,689 posts

Posted 21 August 2015 - 12:27 PM

He has a much better pedigree than Santana. I think he is a league average OF.

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#45 Brock Beauchamp

Brock Beauchamp

    A Little Teapot

  • Owner
  • 23,903 posts

Posted 21 August 2015 - 12:30 PM

 

I agree that this season is likely a good indicator of his true ability, but the K:BB ratio is a red flag. He isn't likely to collapse the way Santana did, but it wouldn't be surprising to see some regression until he matures and adjusts. The concern I have is that his skill set doesn't align with what you typically want to see from a corner outfielder. He isn't a big power guy, and there are very few players that excel offensively that can't control the strike zone. He may be an exception, but I don't think we've seen enough of him to know for sure. 

 

How did everyone posting feel about Santana last year?  I think there was a lot of optimism about him, with the general consensus that he would regress, but not fall on his face, correct? Does that give you any pause as we consider guys like Rosario?

Most of the board expected manageable regression with Santana but I take some issue with Santana-Rosario comparisons.

 

Santana had a ridiculous .400 BABIP. Rosario has a high .350 BABIP. One is completely unsustainable, the other is too high but not crippling when evaluating future performance. It's possible Rosario is legit a .330 BABIP guy going forward. There are players who consistently thrive in the .320-.340 BABIP range for many years.

 

Santana is a MiLB career .278 hitter who hit .318 in MLB. Rosario is a MiLB career .291 hitter who is hitting .281 in MLB.

 

Rosario had legit power in the minors. His legit power has translated to the majors. Is it a bit inflated right now? Maybe, but not the extent I'm terribly worried about it.

 

Rosario MiLB OPS: .820.

 

Santana MiLB OPS: .710.

 

Rosario has proven his talent in the minors and it's tracking consistently in the majors. Is he a flawed player who swings too much? Yeah, probably... But he's not a complete aberration like Santana was in 2014.

 

People are kinda acting as if Rosario is posting some ungodly .800+ OPS in Minnesota... His OPS is a somewhat pedestrian .754. He's not outpacing his MiLB numbers. He's a good two-way player that derives a ton of his value from running around in the big green part of the field.

  • Mike Sixel and benchwarmerjim like this

#46 drjim

drjim

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 8,783 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul

Posted 21 August 2015 - 12:41 PM

Rosario is such an interesting player in today's game. He has valuable skills that are not emphasized as much and his weaknesses are generally overemphasized. 

 

That said, metrics seem to do a decent job of capturing his value, but along a route that is less travelled.

 

I'm not a huge WAR guy, but even I'll acknowledge that a 2.5-3 WAR guy is good to have on a team, especially while pre-arb.

Papers...business papers.

#47 birddog

birddog

    Junior Member

  • Member
  • 291 posts

Posted 21 August 2015 - 01:26 PM

I think being a Twins fan these past 4+ years has taken its toll. It used to be "kid had a great rookie year, can't wait to see how he builds on it." Now it's like we expect regression. In my mind the eyes have it. You look at Rosario's eyes when he steps to the plate, they mean business. He expects to get a hit. Santana's eyes always looked like the proverbial "deer in headlights". Even in 2014 Santana had no look of confidence in him and I think he was just happy to be there.

 

I think the future for Rosario, like Sano, is only going to get better. Their confidence at the plate and the "no big deal" look when they get big hits is what gets me excited about their futures. Don't forget that Eddie hit 21 HRs at Elizabethton in 270 PAs, a 40-HR pace for a whole season. I'm not expecting 40 HRs from Eddie in his career--Sano oh yeah!-- but I think we will see even bigger things from him than what he's showing as a rookie. Maybe not the uncanny consistency he's shown this year, but I like his ceiling.


#48 kab21

kab21

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 4,863 posts
  • LocationTaiwan

Posted 22 August 2015 - 01:56 AM

I think there is reason to be concerned about the so called 'sophomore slump' but for different reasons than Santana. Rosario clearly has more hitting skills than Santana and almost everything backs that up.One difference is that Santana only had to hit enough to be an acceptable SS while Rosario needs to hit enough to be a corner OF'er. 

 

My thoughts on Santana in the offseason were that he needed to make progress on cutting down the K's and possibly adding a few walks.For Santana those %'s somehow went the opposite direction.This is absolutely true of Rosario.If you take away .025 pts of BAPIP then he is dangerously close to being <.700 OPS as a corner OF'er.One similarity between the two is that they both swing at more than 40% of the pitches outside of the strike zone.There are good players that do that but it is hard to be an MLB'er doing that.

 

FWIW - ZiPS, Steamer and Depth Charts (via fangraphs) project him at .245/.280/.380 for the rest of the season. 

 

And just so people don't misunderstand what I call sophomore slump.Let's group rookies into 3 result categories: underperform expectations (poor rookie year), meet expectations and far exceed reasonable expectations.Sophomore slumps are basically a regression that you should expect from rookies that far exceeded expectations.Rosario is exceeding expectations right now and there are a few advanced stats that should give us at least a mild warning.

 

But this is all the more reason that the Twins should have a plan B in AAA (like Kepler) since none of the 3 starters next year (HIcks, Buxton and Rosario) are sure things.

  • stringer bell and ShouldaCouldaWoulda like this

Is 2016 2017 2018 the year that a good pitching prospect is truly blocked by 5 good pitchers in the starting rotation? 

Offseason (noun) - a time to propose trades assuming opposing GM's can't do the same basic analysis


#49 Jham

Jham

    Junior Member

  • Member
  • 2,281 posts

Posted 22 August 2015 - 06:26 AM

An Arcia like fall is much more likely. The player he most reminds me of as a hitter is Jaque Jones. Good fielder, free swinger, good power to all fields. Like Jones, i expect Rosario's power to improve and for him to gradually start to transition to more of a pull power hitter with his avg likely to drop into the .240 or lower, but good power and defense. Basically Arcia plus defense.

No reason he can't hit 20 hr/yr if he learns to wait for his pitch. If he does turn into Arcia, hopefully it takes him less time to adjust to the leagues adjustment.
  • kab21 likes this

#50 ShouldaCouldaWoulda

ShouldaCouldaWoulda

    Junior Member

  • Member
  • 716 posts
  • LocationMonticello

Posted 23 August 2015 - 01:10 AM

I think that Rosario is a valuable player due to his defense, and overall decent bat/speed. I am surprised at how excited and optimistic so many in here are about his future though. And yes, statistically '14 Santana and '15 Rosario are very similar with the bat. Santana was actually more successful though.

 

Santana walked at a terribly low rate (4.4%/22.8%) and struck out far too often, especially for a non-power hitter....Rosario is actually walking less and striking out more (3.1%/24.2%) than Santana did. Yes, Rosario has more power potential than Santana, but he doesn't profile as having good power by any means, especially for a corner OF. Keep in mind Santana plays/played up the middle at SS/CF. 

 

Rosarios 2nd half so far are even worse, and that he is already regressing. His 2nd half bb%/K% is 1.6%/26.2%, with 269/279/496 avg/obp/slg. I will admit that he is slugging well, and has been helped by 6 triples in the past two months. Overall, it is not a promising profile for a corner OF'er. 

 

He MIGHT cut down on the k% and he MIGHT raise his bb%, but not likely to a degree that wouldn't still make him a hacker. He might add a little bit more power, but is probably a 15-18 hr max guy. The problem is that when you dont walk and you strikeout a lot, you rely so much on luck, which can be flukey. I wouldn't be surprised if next year he hit .285/.320/.450 with 15 HR's next year or in the near future. But it wouldn't surprise me if he hits .260/.265/.325 either. A player like him might just flip-flop between those types of numbers from year to year, basically dependent on how things drop and what not. 

 

Go to any sortable leaderboard, like Fangraphs, and look at the guys with a 4% or less BB%, and over a 20% K%, which he's actually worse in both areas. Look at those names, any year, and it's a pretty bleak picture. Most of the guys that did fairly well with those rates in a season, rarely sustained their success. 

 

He is not a future all-star OF'er though, like someone stated. Even in his good years, he will not likely come close to the numbers of the best AL OF's. Like I said, useful player, and I like him vs RHP's, as like a #5-7 hitter, but he should probably make a super platoon with Hicks in the future. 

 

Yes Seth, he will be "fine," but "fine" but as a hitter he likely never "good" compared to the other top corner OF's. Nice glove though. 

Edited by ShouldaCouldaWoulda, 23 August 2015 - 01:19 AM.


#51 mikecgrimes

mikecgrimes

    Senior Member

  • Banned
  • 1,415 posts

Posted 23 August 2015 - 04:13 AM

The triples are probably a fluke and to the extent they improve his slugging percentage that will regress, that and a slightly lower batting average could look like a significant regression, but it wouldn't be.


#52 goulik

goulik

    Kernel of truth

  • Member
  • 1,960 posts
  • LocationElko

Posted 23 August 2015 - 08:35 AM

No

#53 bluechipper

bluechipper

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 2,271 posts

Posted 23 August 2015 - 09:32 AM

With the cannon of an arm that Eddie has shown off this year, I think a decent comp could be Gerardo Parra. They put up similar OPS in their minor league career (.820 and .815) with Rosario hitting for more power but lower OBP. They aren't the prototype slugging corner OF, but they do many things well and add well above average defense.


#54 John Kelsey

John Kelsey

    Puerto Rico Joe

  • Twins Daily Contributor
  • 1,666 posts

Posted 23 August 2015 - 09:40 AM

It won't be as extreme as Santana but I think he's going to take a step backwards next year. He swings at so many pitches out of the zone I don't even know why anyone throws him strikes. His defense is legit and he's a really talented hitter, but he really needs to learn some plate discipline. 




Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: babib, walks, strikeouts, speed, fluke