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#21 nytwinsfan

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Posted 14 August 2015 - 11:15 AM

 

I don't think many are skeptical long term, just in the immediate.

 

Makes a ton of sense to start next year with Rosario in LF, Buxton in CF, Hicks in RF, a veteran part time corner OF/DH on the bench and Kepler in AAA providing quality depth.

Yeah, that's probably right, although I think quite a few people are still skeptical long-term. But I agree about starting next year. Would like to see how Kepler does in a few MLB games in September though.


#22 SwainZag

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Posted 14 August 2015 - 11:29 AM

 

I just think we need to make room for Kepler. I know a lot of people here are skeptical, but I'm not. If he plays 1B, then great, but Mauer makes that a problem. If he plays corner outfield, even better, although then it means Rosario and/or Hicks will either be traded or, preferably in my book, only playing part time (e.g., Hicks plays against lefties and righties with 3.50+ ERAs).

 

I guess my question to you is.......do you see Kepler being a better player than Hicks and/or Rosario? 


#23 nytwinsfan

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Posted 14 August 2015 - 11:34 AM

 

I guess my question to you is.......do you see Kepler being a better player than Hicks and/or Rosario? 

Obviously there is a lot of uncertainty about any prospect (although Rosario and to a lesser extent Hicks also have uncertainty and could turn into a pumpkin any day, just as Santana and to a lesser extent Vargas did this year), but Kepler should not be lightly traded and should be given a very serious shot because I think his most likely outcome is better than Rosario and better than Hicks against RHP, although not LHP.Hicks is also the better defender, so I would rank them in terms of assets:

 

(1) Hicks

(2) Kepler

(3) Rosario

 

Rosario's lack of plate discipline is what drops him below Kepler IMO, even though he's probably a slightly better defender.

Edited by nytwinsfan, 14 August 2015 - 11:36 AM.

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#24 stringer bell

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Posted 14 August 2015 - 11:36 AM

I guess my question to you is.......do you see Kepler being a better player than Hicks and/or Rosario?

That's a really good question. I think Kepler upside as a hitter is in silver slugger territory. High BA, developing power, excellent discipline. I guess I would never expect Rosario to challenge for a batting championship or hit 30 homers a year. However he qualifies as a starting outfielder right now and does figure to get a bit better.
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#25 Dantes929

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Posted 14 August 2015 - 11:42 AM

 

Hicks threw 94 mph as a P in high school.He has an arm.

I wasn't saying he doesn't have a great arm. In fact I said he along with Rosario, Buxton and Santana all havecannons.   I know Buxton threw hard in HS also but as far as I know no one has clocked Rocario. I've just seen him make some throws that tell me he shouldn't be considered the weak sister.

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#26 Dman

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Posted 14 August 2015 - 12:11 PM

I think Kepler supplants Rosario in the outfield eventually as the Twins need more left handed bats.  I wouldn't trade any of those guys though as Buxton has been pretty injury prone and I think they could move Kepler around enough to make room for everyone.

 

I am hoping Arcia can make it as a lefty DH\PH option against RHPing.  I don't know what to think about Vargas anymore.  Only other guy left is ABW.  If knocks down the K's the Twins will want to find room for him.


#27 Thrylos

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Posted 14 August 2015 - 01:35 PM

Have you seen Kepler play the OF recently? There is a reason he moved to 1B.He is pretty Arciaesque.

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#28 Oxtung

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Posted 14 August 2015 - 02:42 PM

Aaron Hicks is a big regression candidate. He currently is being carried by his splits against left handed pitchers where he is sporting a .417 BABIP. Now he also has a slightly below average BABIP against righties. However when things start to balance out he'll be getting more singles from the right side of the plate (his weak side) and more of his doubles(and singles) will become outs from his strong side. To me that speaks to a decline in production overall, both avg and slugging.

I think at some point next year either Sano or Kepler will be needed in the OF, unless of course the Twins sign a corner OF FA.

#29 sane

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Posted 14 August 2015 - 02:54 PM

"I think Kepler supplants Rosario in the outfield eventually as the Twins need more left handed bats"
Rosario IS a left-handed batter.
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#30 nytwinsfan

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Posted 14 August 2015 - 02:54 PM

 

Have you seen Kepler play the OF recently? There is a reason he moved to 1B.He is pretty Arciaesque.

 

You mean like this:http://m.mlb.com/vid...ch-to-end-frame

 

or this: http://m.milb.com/t498/video/208098083

 

 

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#31 Oxtung

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Posted 14 August 2015 - 02:59 PM

You mean like this:http://m.mlb.com/vid...ch-to-end-frame
 
or this: http://m.milb.com/t498/video/208098083


To be fair, every mlb OF should be able to make a diving catch. The question should more be about his routes and reaction time and acceleration none of which we can measure without seeing more in the videos. On the other hand, he has played some CF at AA this year where as Arcia didn't after rookie ball IIRC. Hard to know until we see him up here for awhile.

#32 nytwinsfan

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Posted 14 August 2015 - 03:05 PM

 

To be fair, every mlb OF should be able to make a diving catch. The question should more be about his routes and reaction time and acceleration none of which we can measure without seeing more in the videos. On the other hand, he has played some CF at AA this year where as Arcia didn't after rookie ball IIRC. Hard to know until we see him up here for awhile.

 

Yeah, of course. I was responding to the claim that after having "seen" Kepler play outfield, he looked Arciaesque, which to me means awkward unathletic movements with poor timing and last-second lunges at balls, etc. In other words, the eye test. Kepler looks like a gazelle, and not even just in comparison to Arcia.That being said, the eye test can certainly be deceiving, so if Thrylos would like to provide some range data to show that Kepler's defensive range (which is largely based on routes and reaction time as you note) is similar to Arcia's, I'd be happy to look at it.Everything I've heard is that his defense is solid-average to above average in the corner outfield.Maybe the data will show that his range is as limited as Arcia's but I severely doubt it.

 

BTW, that's not to knock Arcia as a player. He's got tremendous power. He just doesn't look or turn out after looking at the data to be that good of a defensive outfielder.

Edited by nytwinsfan, 14 August 2015 - 03:51 PM.

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#33 Thrylos

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Posted 14 August 2015 - 04:15 PM

 

Yeah, of course. I was responding to the claim that after having "seen" Kepler play outfield, he looked Arciaesque, which to me means awkward unathletic movements with poor timing and last-second lunges at balls, etc. In other words, the eye test. Kepler looks like a gazelle, and not even just in comparison to Arcia.That being said, the eye test can certainly be deceiving, so if Thrylos would like to provide some range data to show that Kepler's defensive range (which is largely based on routes and reaction time as you note) is similar to Arcia's, I'd be happy to look at it.Everything I've heard is that his defense is solid-average to above average in the corner outfield.Maybe the data will show that his range is as limited as Arcia's but I severely doubt it.

 

BTW, that's not to knock Arcia as a player. He's got tremendous power. He just doesn't look or turn out after looking at the data to be that good of a defensive outfielder.

 

Could not see the second video but the first one, is right on the money. He waits like a statue until the ball is 20 feet ahead and realizes that he has to dive.Actually more like fall forward than dive. Lots of diving catches at the OF are because of ball misjudgement...

It was a lazy fly ball, not a screaming line drive.

 

Edited by Thrylos, 14 August 2015 - 04:17 PM.

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#34 RJM96

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Posted 14 August 2015 - 04:26 PM

Not that this matters, but MLB.com has Kepler graded at a 50 for defense. (average) Rosario is graded a 45. (slightly below average)


#35 RJM96

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Posted 14 August 2015 - 04:29 PM

How many HRs can we expect out of Kepler in his prime?


#36 stringer bell

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Posted 14 August 2015 - 04:33 PM

I think defense is really hard to project. We can see the tools, but sometimes things really click and sometimes they don't. Errors can tell part of the story, but by themselves don't really indicate how good a player's tools are.

 

In his first major league go-round, Rosario has been very good. I would expect rookies to struggle some on defense even if the player has great tools.


#37 Thrylos

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Posted 14 August 2015 - 05:25 PM

 

How many HRs can we expect out of Kepler in his prime?

 

Somewhere between Gene Larkin and Marty Cordova (both are decent comparables, btw)15-20.Unless he changes his approach like Dozier did, which will likely add 10 HRs but subtract 25-50 points from his BA

Edited by Thrylos, 14 August 2015 - 05:25 PM.

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#38 nytwinsfan

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Posted 14 August 2015 - 06:53 PM

Could not see the second video but the first one, is right on the money. He waits like a statue until the ball is 20 feet ahead and realizes that he has to dive.Actually more like fall forward than dive. Lots of diving catches at the OF are because of ball misjudgement...
It was a lazy fly ball, not a screaming line drive.


I guess we're not watching the same video then, because the only part I can see of him in the first video (which is admittedly poorly shot) is the very end just before he catches the ball, where he looks very athletic. I'm not sure where the "waiting like a statue part is."

Edited by nytwinsfan, 14 August 2015 - 06:56 PM.


#39 Willihammer

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Posted 14 August 2015 - 09:23 PM

 

I wasn't saying he doesn't have a great arm. In fact I said he along with Rosario, Buxton and Santana all havecannons.   I know Buxton threw hard in HS also but as far as I know no one has clocked Rocario. I've just seen him make some throws that tell me he shouldn't be considered the weak sister.

Couple more tonight!

 

Accurate too.

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#40 jimbo92107

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Posted 14 August 2015 - 10:44 PM

 

Could not see the second video but the first one, is right on the money. He waits like a statue until the ball is 20 feet ahead and realizes that he has to dive.Actually more like fall forward than dive. Lots of diving catches at the OF are because of ball misjudgement...

It was a lazy fly ball, not a screaming line drive.

So Max Kepler has not yet learned to get an early break on balls by knowing the situation, the pitcher, the hitter, and timing his break accordingly. It's one of the last things a young outfielder learns. Aaron Hicks spoke about getting tips on that art from Torii Hunter this season. Could be that one of the best reasons to bring back Hunter is to pass along some of that knowledge to Kepler, too. He's a smart young man, and he has improved on every aspect of his game where he's had coaching.

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