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An AL/NL Midseason WAR

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#1 biggentleben

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Posted 02 July 2012 - 05:51 AM

I'm simply not a fan of the current All-Star fiasco, with it's terrible attempt to mix popularity and half-season performance, rewarding players who often come back to earth in the second half to show they're nowhere near a "star" in the league, to create a roster that's as likely to have Brian LaHair facing Jim Johnson to decide the game as it is to have Albert Pujols facing Cliff Lee. Oh, wait, that latter matchup can't actually happen in 2012. Yet another reason to not watch the idiocy that is the game. The Futures Game, heck yes I'll watch, even though they snubbed a few guys every prospector would love to see, but the All-Star game would have to pay me to come watch it in person to get me to watch it again. That said, I was intrigued by who the "true" half season All-Stars would be, so I checked it out via FanGraphs' WAR system for each position in both leagues (those with a * have over a full WAR lead on their closest competitor): National League C - Carlos Ruiz 1B - Joey Votto* (biggest position discrepancy in all of baseball!) 2B - Aaron Hill 3B - David Wright* SS - Ian Desmond/Jed Lowrie (tied) OF - Michael Bourn, Ryan Braun, Martin Prado SP - Zack Greinke RP - Aroldis Chapman/Craig Kimbrel (tied) AL C - Joe Mauer 1B - Edwin Encarnacion 2B - Robinson Cano* 3B - Brett Lawrie/Adrian Beltre (tie) SS - Elvis Andrus OF - Mike Trout, Josh Hamilton, Austin Jackson SP - Justin Verlander RP - Joe Nathan
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#2 biggentleben

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Posted 02 July 2012 - 08:14 AM

Another curiosity I had was the top guys in each league at this point (yes, some consider WAR a flawed stat because of the defensive end of it, no matter what site you use, but oh well). I utilized both Fangraphs and Baseball Reference

AL Batting Top Ten:
Fangraphs: Mike Trout 4.3, Robinson Cano 4.0, Josh Hamilton 3.6, Austin Jackson, 3.5, Adam Jones 3.4, Alex Gordon 3.1, Josh Reddick 3.1, Elvis Andrus 2.9, Jose Bautista 2.9, Brett Lawrie 2.8
Baseball Reference: Lawrie 4.9, Trout 4.2, Cano 3.9, Hamilton 3.2, Jackson 3.1, Reddick 3.1, Jason Kipnis 3.0, Gordon 2.8, Edwin Encarnacion 2.8, Asdrubal Cabrera 2.7, Shin-Soo Choo 2.7, Denard Span 2.7


AL Pitching Top Ten
Fangraphs: Justin Verlander 3.6, Chris Sale 3.2, Jake Peavy 2.8, CC Sabathia 2.8, Felix Hernandez 2.6, Matt Harrison 2.5, Jered Weaver 2.2, Jason Hammel 2.2, Yu Darvish 2.2, Jon Lester/Colby Lewis 2.1
Baseball Reference: Sale 3.9, Verlander 3.8, Peavy 3.8, Harrison 3.2, Hiroki Kuroda 2.8, CJ Wilson 2.5, David Price 2.4, Hammel 2.4, Brandon McCarthy 2.3, Jarrod Parker 2.3, Darvish 2.3


NL Batting Top Ten
Fangraphs: Joey Votto 4.8, David Wright 4.5, Carlos Ruiz 4.0, Ryan Braun 3.9, Michael Bourn 3.9, Martin Prado 3.7, Andrew McCutchen 3.6, Jason Heyward 3.3, Yadier Molina 3.3, Chase Headley 3.3
Baseball Reference: Wright 4.3, Votto 4.3, Ruiz 3.8, McCutchen 3.5, Bourn 3.5, Darwin Barney 3.4, Melky Cabrera 3.4, Matt Holliday 3.2, Braun 3.2, Prado 3.1


NL Pitching Top Ten
Fangraphs: Zack Greinke 3.6, Stephen Strasburg 3.2, Gio Gonzalez 2.9, RA Dickey 2.9, Matt Cain 2.8, Johnny Cueto 2.6, Josh Johnson 2.4, Clayton Kershaw 2.4, Cole Hamels 2.4, James McDonald/Madison Bumgarner 2.3
Baseball Reference: Dickey 3.6, Cueto 3.4, Greinke 2.9, Kershaw 2.6, Ryan Vogelsong 2.6, Jordan Zimmerman 2.5, Johan Santana 2.4, Matt Belisle 2.4, 8 tied at 2.3
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#3 kab21

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Posted 03 July 2012 - 11:00 AM

This isn't the reason that I won't watch. It just sucks as a baseball event. And it has for at least 10 years. I'll use WAR but any stat that says Ruiz is the 3rd best player, Bourn the 5th, Prado the 6th, Molina the 9th and Headley the 10th best player in the NL is flawed. Half of a season just isn't enough data if you're trying to determine the best players using WAR. The fan vote can be a mess also but for the most part it just shuffles around who the starters and the reserves are and almost everybody plays.

#4 biggentleben

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Posted 03 July 2012 - 12:29 PM

This isn't the reason that I won't watch. It just sucks as a baseball event. And it has for at least 10 years.

I'll use WAR but any stat that says Ruiz is the 3rd best player, Bourn the 5th, Prado the 6th, Molina the 9th and Headley the 10th best player in the NL is flawed. Half of a season just isn't enough data if you're trying to determine the best players using WAR. The fan vote can be a mess also but for the most part it just shuffles around who the starters and the reserves are and almost everybody plays.


Yeah, I'm not saying this is the way for the game to be determined. I just thought it was interesting when I started doing some research on a post for another board and came across this info. I do think the Braves outfield has been very underrated this year, especially seeing as none of them is on the All-Star team, and it sounds as if the only way any of them would be there now is as an injury replacement as Bourn is getting killed in the last-spot vote. WAR is really not a good predictive tool, but it was interesting to see how certain players have performed thus far according to the statistic, especially when considering the differences in fWAR and bWAR.
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