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Target Field Park Factor

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#1 jorgenswest

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 05:56 PM

In 2010 and 2011, Target Field park factor for run scoring was .962 and .944. It is considered to be a pitcher's park. Through half of a season this year, park factor for run scoring is 1.053. Home runs are still down, but everything else is up.

It takes more than two years to determine how a venue will impact run scoring. Look at data for Mall of America Field from 2007-2009 and you will see significant season to season variance even in a climate controlled venue.

Our assumptions about Target Field being a pitcher's park may be incorrect. It hasn't been thus far this year.

If you are interested, park factor data can be found at http://espn.go.com/m...tats/parkfactor

#2 minn55441

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 06:10 PM

Thanks for the link Jorgens.

#3 Riverbrian

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 06:12 PM

In 2010 and 2011, Target Field park factor for run scoring was .962 and .944. It is considered to be a pitcher's park. Through half of a season this year, park factor for run scoring is 1.053. Home runs are still down, but everything else is up.

It takes more than two years to determine how a venue will impact run scoring. Look at data for Mall of America Field from 2007-2009 and you will see significant season to season variance even in a climate controlled venue.

Our assumptions about Target Field being a pitcher's park may be incorrect. It hasn't been thus far this year.

If you are interested, park factor data can be found at http://espn.go.com/m...tats/parkfactor


The one stadium I always felt was a pitchers park was Oakland. That foul territory has to be a pitchers advantage. The data doesn't necessarily support that thinking I guess.

#4 Badsmerf

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 06:46 PM

The ones who were crying about the field were the players.

#5 CDog

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 07:05 PM

The ones who were crying about the field were the players.


Nobody cried. People were able to discuss things at an adult level with some thought. Well...some people.

#6 Cody Christie

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 08:50 PM

With the way Plouffe and Willingham have been jerking home runs to left field, it certainly isn't looking like a pitchers park. Players are starting to figure out how to hit at Target Field and that is making the offensive numbers show up.

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 08:54 PM

I've been saying for 2 yrs, "lets wait a bit before we declare TF to be the grand canyon." There's nothing in the dimensions that should make it a huge pitcher's park. The RF alley is tough with the tall wall, but other than that, it's not that big.

#8 CDog

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 09:00 PM

I've been saying for 2 yrs, "lets wait a bit before we declare TF to be the grand canyon."

There's nothing in the dimensions that should make it a huge pitcher's park. The RF alley is tough with the tall wall, but other than that, it's not that big.


Agreed that it shouldn't be huge. But the aforementioned wall extends an awfully long way toward center and makes homers in a certain trajectory very, very rare. The thing I think is strange is that there are very few that go out to center (has the batter's eye ever been hit? Thome's two OVER it are all the more amazing when considering that maybe nobody else has even pelted it), and even the bullpens haven't been hit that often. That alley-to-alley range has played deep, and the dimensions aren't likely the cause. As you mention, it's not much different distance-wise than a lot of other places.

#9 kab21

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 09:51 PM

2 years isn't enough data but 1/2 of a year tells you something? Interesting...

#10 snepp

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 09:53 PM

2 years isn't enough data but 1/2 of a year tells you something? Interesting...


My thought as well.

#11 ancestral

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 10:04 PM

Conventional wisdom dictates that summertime gives hotter temps, which help carry the ball further. Another theory is perhaps Twins players (and opposing teams) are understanding how to hit at Target Field now. Personally, I just think our pitching hasn’t been so great, and out hitting has been picking up as of late, as to partial reasons why it’s up this year.

#12 CDog

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 10:05 PM

2 years isn't enough data but 1/2 of a year tells you something? Interesting...


Would be more interesting if you could find where anyone made that leap in this thread.

#13 Badsmerf

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 10:14 PM

Nobody cried. People were able to discuss things at an adult level with some thought. Well...some people.


You must have missed the quotes by Cuddyer, Kubel, and Morneau.

Cuddyer "any ball hit in right-center is an out, pretty much."

Kubel ""I made some adjustments, but I made them a year later. Not trying to pull the ball and put it in the air so much. Start hitting line drives all over the place."

Kubel “There’s a big wall there and the outfield is deep. It’s tough on a line drive hitter but the high wall and deep outfield makes that a difficult hitter’s park.”

Morneau "“Right-center to left-center is ridiculous. [It's] almost impossible for a righthanded hitter to [homer to the] opposite field and very difficult for lefties. It affects the hitters a lot, and you start to develop bad habits as a hitter when you feel like you can only pull the ball to hit it over the fence. You take those habits on the road.”

Sounds like a lot of crying to me lol. Good thing Plouffe, Willingham, Parmelee and Thome aren't that worried about it.

#14 jorgenswest

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 10:15 PM

2 years isn't enough data but 1/2 of a year tells you something? Interesting...


I had to reread what I wrote originally.

I should have been more clear for you. Did you assume I implied that it was now a hitter's park? Sorry about that. My point is that there is a lot of variance with parks from year to year and the first two years of data from Target Field probably is not enough to declare it a pitcher's park.

#15 Riverbrian

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 10:15 PM

Its possible that the Plaza could be a factor. I'm not saying it while banging down a gavel. Its possible... The plaza is an open spot and the wind will funnel through it and could knock down balls. I admit I don't know what direction it faces cuz I'm bad with directions but if it faces a typical wind direction it could cause problems for lefties. Mauer... Morneau and Kubel haven't hit a ton of Target field homers. Thome... well he's a power freak... It would take an F3 tornado to knock his ball down. Righties do seem to hit more. I said seem... I didn't research anything.

#16 CDog

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 11:16 PM

You must have missed the quotes by Cuddyer, Kubel, and Morneau.

Cuddyer "any ball hit in right-center is an out, pretty much."

Kubel ""I made some adjustments, but I made them a year later. Not trying to pull the ball and put it in the air so much. Start hitting line drives all over the place."

Kubel “There’s a big wall there and the outfield is deep. It’s tough on a line drive hitter but the high wall and deep outfield makes that a difficult hitter’s park.”

Morneau "“Right-center to left-center is ridiculous. [It's] almost impossible for a righthanded hitter to [homer to the] opposite field and very difficult for lefties. It affects the hitters a lot, and you start to develop bad habits as a hitter when you feel like you can only pull the ball to hit it over the fence. You take those habits on the road.”

Sounds like a lot of crying to me lol. Good thing Plouffe, Willingham, Parmelee and Thome aren't that worried about it.


Every one of those seems like someone analyzing what they do for a living and nothing more.

#17 biggentleben

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 11:42 PM

The one stadium I always felt was a pitchers park was Oakland. That foul territory has to be a pitchers advantage. The data doesn't necessarily support that thinking I guess.


It's still grading out as a pitcher's park (19th in baseball in runs) this year, and it's not finished higher than 19th in any season. That said, this is not a "park factor" statistic. It's a runs allowed statistic. Yankee stadium grades out as a hitter's park easily, yet it's often lower in runs scored because the Yankees typically have solid pitching.

Baseball-reference uses a grading system on all parks with a 100 score being average (explained here), over 100 being hitter friendly, and under 100 being pitcher friendly. This season the batter/pitcher average is 99, the multi-year grade is 97. While year to year grades will show plenty of variance, the multi-year grade often is very true to form. Target Field is the 10th most pitcher-friendly park in that statistic, ranking behind your assumed parks (Seattle, San Francisco, Los Angeles (both of them), San Diego, etc., but also ranking as more of a pitcher's park than some assumed pitchers' paradises like Washington, Oakland, and Atlanta. To compare, Yankee stadium is the 6th most hitter-friendly park according to B-Ref's park adjustments, but they're 16th in runs scored this season.

Terms like "pitcher-friendly" or "hitter-friendly" cannot be simply evaluated with home runs or runs scored. Coors Field is incredibly hitter friendly, but it has some of the largest dimensions of any field in the game, which would on the surface look pitching friendly. However, the thinner air and huge outfield hurt pitchers as line drives often take different routes in the Colorado air and can cut through and out of the park where they'd often die due to air friction in a similar-sized park closer to sea level.
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#18 jokin

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Posted 02 July 2012 - 12:05 AM

Originally Posted by Badsmerf Posted ImageYou must have missed the quotes by Cuddyer, Kubel, and Morneau. Cuddyer "any ball hit in right-center is an out, pretty much." Kubel ""I made some adjustments, but I made them a year later. Not trying to pull the ball and put it in the air so much. Start hitting line drives all over the place." Kubel “There’s a big wall there and the outfield is deep. It’s tough on a line drive hitter but the high wall and deep outfield makes that a difficult hitter’s park.” Morneau "“Right-center to left-center is ridiculous. [It's] almost impossible for a righthanded hitter to [homer to the] opposite field and very difficult for lefties. It affects the hitters a lot, and you start to develop bad habits as a hitter when you feel like you can only pull the ball to hit it over the fence. You take those habits on the road.”Sounds like a lot of crying to me lol. Good thing Plouffe, Willingham, Parmelee and Thome aren't that worried about it.


Every one of those seems like someone analyzing what they do for a living and nothing more.


Don't forget to add Joe Mauer for nothing more than analyzing what he does for a living:

"
It's definitely frustrating as a left-handed hitter," Mauer said. "I'd be lying if I told you there aren't times at the plate where you're like, 'Oh, I've got to maybe pull a ball,' or things like that. It messes with your approach a little bit."


Don't forget that they apparently complained as a group (oh, I meant to say analyzing what they do for a living) to remove the center field trees after 2010- only to see averages and production plummet further.

I'd love to hear Plouffe, Willingham, Parmelee and Thome,....and Soriano,......and Bautista.... Oh wait, Thome has gone public with his analyzing what he does (did/er, will do again, now that he's back in the AL as an Oriole) for a living. Here's Thome griping away:



"There were some balls that you hit that could get knocked down, sure, I think maybe (it's) the weather or something," Thome said. "Whatever. You just go hit. You don't really worry about all that."

Edited by jokin, 02 July 2012 - 12:16 AM.


#19 Obie

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Posted 02 July 2012 - 05:36 AM

Note that the recent increase in homers is heavily tilted to left field. Right field remains a problem due to plaza wind tunnel effect with wind blowing in more than out and the right center wall. To get a ball over that wall on the CF side requires a blast almost like Thome's two over the batter's eye.

#20 Riverbrian

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Posted 02 July 2012 - 06:27 AM

Reporter: Joe, the home run totals at Target field are down considerably from the Metrodome. Especially for left handers. Do you find this frustrating?


"
It's definitely frustrating as a left-handed hitter," Mauer said. "I'd be lying if I told you there aren't times at the plate where you're like, 'Oh, I've got to maybe pull a ball,' or things like that. It messes with your approach a little bit."


FOLLOWED by the reaction of some not so nice fans who refer to this as crying.

At what point... do you realize that you are either borderline insane or losing human qualities or at least really bad with your use of adjectives.

Seriously... Why Do they speak at all? With people like Badsmerf and you around?

Edited by Riverbrian, 02 July 2012 - 06:31 AM.