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Target Field Park Factor

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#1 jorgenswest

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 05:56 PM

In 2010 and 2011, Target Field park factor for run scoring was .962 and .944. It is considered to be a pitcher's park. Through half of a season this year, park factor for run scoring is 1.053. Home runs are still down, but everything else is up.

It takes more than two years to determine how a venue will impact run scoring. Look at data for Mall of America Field from 2007-2009 and you will see significant season to season variance even in a climate controlled venue.

Our assumptions about Target Field being a pitcher's park may be incorrect. It hasn't been thus far this year.

If you are interested, park factor data can be found at http://espn.go.com/m...tats/parkfactor

#2 minn55441

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 06:10 PM

Thanks for the link Jorgens.

#3 Riverbrian

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 06:12 PM

In 2010 and 2011, Target Field park factor for run scoring was .962 and .944. It is considered to be a pitcher's park. Through half of a season this year, park factor for run scoring is 1.053. Home runs are still down, but everything else is up.

It takes more than two years to determine how a venue will impact run scoring. Look at data for Mall of America Field from 2007-2009 and you will see significant season to season variance even in a climate controlled venue.

Our assumptions about Target Field being a pitcher's park may be incorrect. It hasn't been thus far this year.

If you are interested, park factor data can be found at http://espn.go.com/m...tats/parkfactor


The one stadium I always felt was a pitchers park was Oakland. That foul territory has to be a pitchers advantage. The data doesn't necessarily support that thinking I guess.

#4 Badsmerf

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 06:46 PM

The ones who were crying about the field were the players.

#5 CDog

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 07:05 PM

The ones who were crying about the field were the players.


Nobody cried. People were able to discuss things at an adult level with some thought. Well...some people.

#6 Cody Christie

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 08:50 PM

With the way Plouffe and Willingham have been jerking home runs to left field, it certainly isn't looking like a pitchers park. Players are starting to figure out how to hit at Target Field and that is making the offensive numbers show up.

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 08:54 PM

I've been saying for 2 yrs, "lets wait a bit before we declare TF to be the grand canyon." There's nothing in the dimensions that should make it a huge pitcher's park. The RF alley is tough with the tall wall, but other than that, it's not that big.

#8 CDog

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 09:00 PM

I've been saying for 2 yrs, "lets wait a bit before we declare TF to be the grand canyon."

There's nothing in the dimensions that should make it a huge pitcher's park. The RF alley is tough with the tall wall, but other than that, it's not that big.


Agreed that it shouldn't be huge. But the aforementioned wall extends an awfully long way toward center and makes homers in a certain trajectory very, very rare. The thing I think is strange is that there are very few that go out to center (has the batter's eye ever been hit? Thome's two OVER it are all the more amazing when considering that maybe nobody else has even pelted it), and even the bullpens haven't been hit that often. That alley-to-alley range has played deep, and the dimensions aren't likely the cause. As you mention, it's not much different distance-wise than a lot of other places.

#9 kab21

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 09:51 PM

2 years isn't enough data but 1/2 of a year tells you something? Interesting...

#10 snepp

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 09:53 PM

2 years isn't enough data but 1/2 of a year tells you something? Interesting...


My thought as well.

#11 ancestral

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 10:04 PM

Conventional wisdom dictates that summertime gives hotter temps, which help carry the ball further. Another theory is perhaps Twins players (and opposing teams) are understanding how to hit at Target Field now. Personally, I just think our pitching hasn’t been so great, and out hitting has been picking up as of late, as to partial reasons why it’s up this year.

#12 CDog

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 10:05 PM

2 years isn't enough data but 1/2 of a year tells you something? Interesting...


Would be more interesting if you could find where anyone made that leap in this thread.

#13 Badsmerf

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 10:14 PM

Nobody cried. People were able to discuss things at an adult level with some thought. Well...some people.


You must have missed the quotes by Cuddyer, Kubel, and Morneau.

Cuddyer "any ball hit in right-center is an out, pretty much."

Kubel ""I made some adjustments, but I made them a year later. Not trying to pull the ball and put it in the air so much. Start hitting line drives all over the place."

Kubel “There’s a big wall there and the outfield is deep. It’s tough on a line drive hitter but the high wall and deep outfield makes that a difficult hitter’s park.”

Morneau "“Right-center to left-center is ridiculous. [It's] almost impossible for a righthanded hitter to [homer to the] opposite field and very difficult for lefties. It affects the hitters a lot, and you start to develop bad habits as a hitter when you feel like you can only pull the ball to hit it over the fence. You take those habits on the road.”

Sounds like a lot of crying to me lol. Good thing Plouffe, Willingham, Parmelee and Thome aren't that worried about it.

#14 jorgenswest

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 10:15 PM

2 years isn't enough data but 1/2 of a year tells you something? Interesting...


I had to reread what I wrote originally.

I should have been more clear for you. Did you assume I implied that it was now a hitter's park? Sorry about that. My point is that there is a lot of variance with parks from year to year and the first two years of data from Target Field probably is not enough to declare it a pitcher's park.

#15 Riverbrian

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 10:15 PM

Its possible that the Plaza could be a factor. I'm not saying it while banging down a gavel. Its possible... The plaza is an open spot and the wind will funnel through it and could knock down balls. I admit I don't know what direction it faces cuz I'm bad with directions but if it faces a typical wind direction it could cause problems for lefties. Mauer... Morneau and Kubel haven't hit a ton of Target field homers. Thome... well he's a power freak... It would take an F3 tornado to knock his ball down. Righties do seem to hit more. I said seem... I didn't research anything.

#16 CDog

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 11:16 PM

You must have missed the quotes by Cuddyer, Kubel, and Morneau.

Cuddyer "any ball hit in right-center is an out, pretty much."

Kubel ""I made some adjustments, but I made them a year later. Not trying to pull the ball and put it in the air so much. Start hitting line drives all over the place."

Kubel “There’s a big wall there and the outfield is deep. It’s tough on a line drive hitter but the high wall and deep outfield makes that a difficult hitter’s park.”

Morneau "“Right-center to left-center is ridiculous. [It's] almost impossible for a righthanded hitter to [homer to the] opposite field and very difficult for lefties. It affects the hitters a lot, and you start to develop bad habits as a hitter when you feel like you can only pull the ball to hit it over the fence. You take those habits on the road.”

Sounds like a lot of crying to me lol. Good thing Plouffe, Willingham, Parmelee and Thome aren't that worried about it.


Every one of those seems like someone analyzing what they do for a living and nothing more.

#17 biggentleben

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 11:42 PM

The one stadium I always felt was a pitchers park was Oakland. That foul territory has to be a pitchers advantage. The data doesn't necessarily support that thinking I guess.


It's still grading out as a pitcher's park (19th in baseball in runs) this year, and it's not finished higher than 19th in any season. That said, this is not a "park factor" statistic. It's a runs allowed statistic. Yankee stadium grades out as a hitter's park easily, yet it's often lower in runs scored because the Yankees typically have solid pitching.

Baseball-reference uses a grading system on all parks with a 100 score being average (explained here), over 100 being hitter friendly, and under 100 being pitcher friendly. This season the batter/pitcher average is 99, the multi-year grade is 97. While year to year grades will show plenty of variance, the multi-year grade often is very true to form. Target Field is the 10th most pitcher-friendly park in that statistic, ranking behind your assumed parks (Seattle, San Francisco, Los Angeles (both of them), San Diego, etc., but also ranking as more of a pitcher's park than some assumed pitchers' paradises like Washington, Oakland, and Atlanta. To compare, Yankee stadium is the 6th most hitter-friendly park according to B-Ref's park adjustments, but they're 16th in runs scored this season.

Terms like "pitcher-friendly" or "hitter-friendly" cannot be simply evaluated with home runs or runs scored. Coors Field is incredibly hitter friendly, but it has some of the largest dimensions of any field in the game, which would on the surface look pitching friendly. However, the thinner air and huge outfield hurt pitchers as line drives often take different routes in the Colorado air and can cut through and out of the park where they'd often die due to air friction in a similar-sized park closer to sea level.
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#18 jokin

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Posted 02 July 2012 - 12:05 AM

Originally Posted by Badsmerf Posted ImageYou must have missed the quotes by Cuddyer, Kubel, and Morneau. Cuddyer "any ball hit in right-center is an out, pretty much." Kubel ""I made some adjustments, but I made them a year later. Not trying to pull the ball and put it in the air so much. Start hitting line drives all over the place." Kubel “There’s a big wall there and the outfield is deep. It’s tough on a line drive hitter but the high wall and deep outfield makes that a difficult hitter’s park.” Morneau "“Right-center to left-center is ridiculous. [It's] almost impossible for a righthanded hitter to [homer to the] opposite field and very difficult for lefties. It affects the hitters a lot, and you start to develop bad habits as a hitter when you feel like you can only pull the ball to hit it over the fence. You take those habits on the road.”Sounds like a lot of crying to me lol. Good thing Plouffe, Willingham, Parmelee and Thome aren't that worried about it.


Every one of those seems like someone analyzing what they do for a living and nothing more.


Don't forget to add Joe Mauer for nothing more than analyzing what he does for a living:

"
It's definitely frustrating as a left-handed hitter," Mauer said. "I'd be lying if I told you there aren't times at the plate where you're like, 'Oh, I've got to maybe pull a ball,' or things like that. It messes with your approach a little bit."


Don't forget that they apparently complained as a group (oh, I meant to say analyzing what they do for a living) to remove the center field trees after 2010- only to see averages and production plummet further.

I'd love to hear Plouffe, Willingham, Parmelee and Thome,....and Soriano,......and Bautista.... Oh wait, Thome has gone public with his analyzing what he does (did/er, will do again, now that he's back in the AL as an Oriole) for a living. Here's Thome griping away:



"There were some balls that you hit that could get knocked down, sure, I think maybe (it's) the weather or something," Thome said. "Whatever. You just go hit. You don't really worry about all that."

Edited by jokin, 02 July 2012 - 12:16 AM.


#19 Obie

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Posted 02 July 2012 - 05:36 AM

Note that the recent increase in homers is heavily tilted to left field. Right field remains a problem due to plaza wind tunnel effect with wind blowing in more than out and the right center wall. To get a ball over that wall on the CF side requires a blast almost like Thome's two over the batter's eye.

#20 Riverbrian

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Posted 02 July 2012 - 06:27 AM

Reporter: Joe, the home run totals at Target field are down considerably from the Metrodome. Especially for left handers. Do you find this frustrating?


"
It's definitely frustrating as a left-handed hitter," Mauer said. "I'd be lying if I told you there aren't times at the plate where you're like, 'Oh, I've got to maybe pull a ball,' or things like that. It messes with your approach a little bit."


FOLLOWED by the reaction of some not so nice fans who refer to this as crying.

At what point... do you realize that you are either borderline insane or losing human qualities or at least really bad with your use of adjectives.

Seriously... Why Do they speak at all? With people like Badsmerf and you around?

Edited by Riverbrian, 02 July 2012 - 06:31 AM.


#21 Mauerzy4Prez

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Posted 02 July 2012 - 06:56 AM

You must have missed the quotes by Cuddyer, Kubel, and Morneau.

Cuddyer "any ball hit in right-center is an out, pretty much."

Kubel ""I made some adjustments, but I made them a year later. Not trying to pull the ball and put it in the air so much. Start hitting line drives all over the place."

Kubel “There’s a big wall there and the outfield is deep. It’s tough on a line drive hitter but the high wall and deep outfield makes that a difficult hitter’s park.”

Morneau "“Right-center to left-center is ridiculous. [It's] almost impossible for a righthanded hitter to [homer to the] opposite field and very difficult for lefties. It affects the hitters a lot, and you start to develop bad habits as a hitter when you feel like you can only pull the ball to hit it over the fence. You take those habits on the road.”

Sounds like a lot of crying to me lol. Good thing Plouffe, Willingham, Parmelee and Thome aren't that worried about it.


I don't see any of those quotes as "crying"... This is just guys being honest, and who really know's what context these responses are being used in when you can just cut and paste your favorite parts to make a point in your favor? Look at the way Mauer has been hitting the ball of late. Yes, he may have made comments in the past about the park tempting lefties to get pull happy, and I truly think that last year especially he was falling into that trap and his numbers showed for it. This year, he has gotten back to his old self, using the entire left side of the field and not trying to pull every ball he can. My point is baseball is a game of adjustments, just like many other sports, good players will adapt to their surroundings and figure out a way to be effective. We're just about half way through the third season, let's give these guys a chance to make the necessary changes to the ball field's dimensions before we title them "cry babies".

#22 Boom Boom

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Posted 02 July 2012 - 07:20 AM

The Twins will hit better at Target Field when they've finally cycled out their Metrodome-era hitters. Guys like Cuddyer, Kubel, Mauer, and even Morneau to an extent, are gap-to-gap hitters. TF doesn't reward those types of players like the Dome did.

#23 silverslugger

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Posted 02 July 2012 - 08:17 AM

I attended a game at Target Field for the first time this weekend. Wish I could've gotten there sooner, but it wasn't in the cards. Three observations. First, right field and the plaza are east as the ballpark sits. Prevailing winds in the midwestern summer are usually south/southwest/west, rarely out of the east. Winds out of the south are blowing out to left field, winds out of the west are blowing out to right field. Beyond right field is the downtown skyline with several tall buildings. I can only guess that prevailing south winds would hit those downtown buildings and some of those winds might blow through the plaza. Second, upon sitting down I immediately noticed that the ballpark seating is much more vertical than most other stadiums I've been in. This is great for fans so they don't have heads in front of them to look over and around. It also means the 3baseline and 1baseline stands are quite high and the playing field is very low, thus cutting down on winds blowing out to left and right. Finally, this weekend was hot and muggy with prevailing winds out of the south blowing out to left field. Simply said, it was the perfect weather for righties with a pull swing and the perfect weather for Mauer's opposite field homer. Any other weather pattern, and Mauer's opposite field shot this weekend is caught on the edge of the warning track.

#24 CDog

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Posted 02 July 2012 - 08:32 AM

At what point... do you realize that you are either borderline insane or losing human qualities or at least really bad with your use of adjectives.

Seriously... Why Do they speak at all? With people like Badsmerf and you around?


Keep in mind, of course, that not speaking (or even not speaking enough or even not saying precisely the words that "they" decide should have been said--often after the fact) will get the same response from many of the same people. BUT...in the interest of self-fulfilling prophecies, I now HAVE been able to find some examples in this thread of people going out of there way to complain and whine where there really was no reason for it. Which is interesting. I won't mention which posts or who they were...

#25 Badsmerf

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Posted 02 July 2012 - 08:39 AM

When players are complaining and blaming outside things effecting their performance they are crying. Thome is a perfect example of a pro because his explanation of TF is that its a baseball field and you go out and play. I don't mind Mauer saying its and adjustment, but give me a break. Do you really feel bad because TF doesn't play as well for lefties as the dome did? I don't. Hit the ball hard and hit line drives and you'll hit HR's.

#26 Riverbrian

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Posted 02 July 2012 - 08:55 AM

When players are complaining and blaming outside things effecting their performance they are crying. Thome is a perfect example of a pro because his explanation of TF is that its a baseball field and you go out and play. I don't mind Mauer saying its and adjustment, but give me a break. Do you really feel bad because TF doesn't play as well for lefties as the dome did? I don't. Hit the ball hard and hit line drives and you'll hit HR's.


Husband is actually happy and trying to watch a ballgame on TV.

Wife: What did you think of Supper?
Husband: It was OK... Wasn't one of my favorites... It helped when I put some Ketchup on it.
Wife: I'm so sick of you crying about Supper... Make your own next time.

It's not crying or blaming... It's answering a question... There was no press release... No refusal to take the field and play ball in Target Field... They didn't call a press conference and go ape over the dimensions. They get asked questions and they answer them and then they get attacked for the answers. They still go to the plate and try to hit the ball hard.

How sterile do you want their answers to be.

We take it one game at a time.
I'm just glad to be here... Trying to help the team win games.
It takes 25 guys to get the job done
Baseball is a funny game.

#27 jokin

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Posted 02 July 2012 - 10:54 AM

Husband is actually happy and trying to watch a ballgame on TV.

Wife: What did you think of Supper?
Husband: It was OK... Wasn't one of my favorites... It helped when I put some Ketchup on it.
Wife: I'm so sick of you crying about Supper... Make your own next time.

It's not crying or blaming... It's answering a question... There was no press release... No refusal to take the field and play ball in Target Field... They didn't call a press conference and go ape over the dimensions. They get asked questions and they answer them and then they get attacked for the answers. They still go to the plate and try to hit the ball hard.

How sterile do you want their answers to be.

We take it one game at a time.
I'm just glad to be here... Trying to help the team win games.
It takes 25 guys to get the job done
Baseball is a funny game.


I really liked Thome's answer, manning up to the job at hand is never sterile.

#28 jokin

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Posted 02 July 2012 - 11:05 AM

Reporter: Joe, the home run totals at Target field are down considerably from the Metrodome. Especially for left handers. Do you find this frustrating?



FOLLOWED by the reaction of some not so nice fans who refer to this as crying.

At what point... do you realize that you are either borderline insane or losing human qualities or at least really bad with your use of adjectives.

Seriously... Why Do they speak at all? With people like Badsmerf and you around?


Wow, seriously?

You are somehow qualified to call people "borderline insane" or less than human, for quoting them accurately? I also didn't use a single adjective. I made no reference to the tone of the comments, I guess I prefer a stiff-upper-lip approach to sports as opposed to the metro-sexual get-all-my-feelings on the table approach to high-level sports.

I noticed you had no comment on the trees and their need of their presence in CF as an excuse- and then the hitting results after their removal. Aren't the players coddled and rewarded richly enough? The fans built the stadium and pay the salaries, the aesthetic integrity of the park and intent of the designers of the park were whimsically cast aside for a mere trifle.

#29 jokin

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Posted 02 July 2012 - 11:09 AM

When players are complaining and blaming outside things effecting their performance they are crying. Thome is a perfect example of a pro because his explanation of TF is that its a baseball field and you go out and play. I don't mind Mauer saying its and adjustment, but give me a break. Do you really feel bad because TF doesn't play as well for lefties as the dome did? I don't. Hit the ball hard and hit line drives and you'll hit HR's.


Careful, certain posters think your comments, which are the essence of common sense........ qualify you as "borderline insane" or going out of your way to whine and complain.

#30 jokin

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Posted 02 July 2012 - 11:17 AM

Husband is actually happy and trying to watch a ballgame on TV.

Wife: What did you think of Supper?
Husband: It was OK... Wasn't one of my favorites... It helped when I put some Ketchup on it.
Wife: I'm so sick of you crying about Supper... Make your own next time.


If that's typical of your own interactions with your wife, I wouldn't go as far to say those interactions are borderline insane, but I can make a fair guess that you were no longer "actually happy" after your emotionally distant and socially inattentive faux pas.