Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.
The same great Twins Daily coverage, now for the Vikings.

The Store


Photo

Could Twins trade for Greinke?

  • Please log in to reply
46 replies to this topic

#1 TKGuy

TKGuy

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 303 posts

Posted 30 June 2012 - 06:57 PM

Looks like the Brewers will not be signing Greinke long term. I am of the opinion that Greinke would not do well in a big market. Instead of minor league prospects, could the Twins offer up Span and Parmalee in a package for Greinke? Span is very affordable and Milwaukee needs to replace Prince. Obviously, we can only do this if we can sign Greinke to a long term deal. Are teams still allowed to negotiate an extension before a trade?

#2 Brock Beauchamp

Brock Beauchamp

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 8,723 posts

Posted 30 June 2012 - 06:58 PM

Why would you give up Span and Parmelee when you're going to have a shot at Greinke in the open market four months from now?

#3 greengoblinrulz

greengoblinrulz

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,759 posts

Posted 30 June 2012 - 07:13 PM

Why would you give up Span and Parmelee when you're going to have a shot at Greinke in the open market four months from now?

Exactly. Why give up something (that isnt even close enough) for someone you can get for free (not free in Dec) in offseason. Even if you trade for him, he's goin into FA & see his value....then you lose Span/Parm for nothin.

#4 darin617

darin617

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 607 posts

Posted 30 June 2012 - 07:19 PM

What a horrible idea. The odds that he would resign with the Twins would be slim to none.

#5 Fire Dan Gladden

Fire Dan Gladden

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 382 posts

Posted 30 June 2012 - 07:36 PM

What a horrible idea. The odds that he would resign with the Twins would be slim to none.


The Twins wouldn't make any trade for Grienke unless an extension could be worked out prior to the trade (ie Johan Santana).

Making a trade for him mid-season makes sense as it would give the Twins an opportunity to sign him without it becoming a bidding war in free agency. If they could do that for the cost of Parmalee and Span, I would do it in a heartbeat.

#6 IdahoPilgrim

IdahoPilgrim

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 2,424 posts

Posted 30 June 2012 - 07:40 PM

Out of curiosity, why the statement that Greinke would not do well in a big market? And even if that might be the case, does that necessarily mean he won't go to a big market? The lure of big money could overcome any uncertainties he might have.

#7 Brock Beauchamp

Brock Beauchamp

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 8,723 posts

Posted 30 June 2012 - 07:59 PM

The Twins wouldn't make any trade for Grienke unless an extension could be worked out prior to the trade (ie Johan Santana).

Making a trade for him mid-season makes sense as it would give the Twins an opportunity to sign him without it becoming a bidding war in free agency. If they could do that for the cost of Parmalee and Span, I would do it in a heartbeat.


I wouldn't. By himself, Span should bring back a MLB ready starter, not just the right to pay one a bunch of money that you'd be able to offer a bunch of money anyway.

And there's no reason to give away Parmelee. None.

#8 biggentleben

biggentleben

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,002 posts

Posted 30 June 2012 - 08:09 PM

Out of curiosity, why the statement that Greinke would not do well in a big market? And even if that might be the case, does that necessarily mean he won't go to a big market? The lure of big money could overcome any uncertainties he might have.


He has openly stated that he will not be going to New York or Los Angeles because of his social anxiety disorder. I'm guessing that'd put the Red Sox and both Chicago teams out as well. The market will get small in a hurry for Greinke, but he'll still get Matt Cain type of money.
Staff Writer for Tomahawktake.com, come check it out!

#9 TKGuy

TKGuy

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 303 posts

Posted 30 June 2012 - 08:12 PM

I've aeen comments repeated in different places that think Greinke wouldn't do well in say, NY. Obviously, we'd need to sign before a trade. Finally, the Brewers would get two major league ready players (at least one) at an affordable price at positions of need. A trade with an extension, would be the easiest way to get a top line starter. the pressure on the Brewers will mount, they don't want to get stuck the way the Twins did with Johan. The Brewers would know what they're getting instead of finding out if they get the Frank Viola return or a Johan Santana return. we cannot get better without better starters and the starters are not in the minors. I don't like our chances on the open market as I think St. Louis would be a great fit also. Lots of people hate this I see, but Span isn't going to get us a good starter under team control for a while, (Zimmerman) and Joe Saunders or Edwin Jackson dont do it for me. I think it also shows the fans we are serious about getting better. Anyways, if you disagree, who and how are we going to get for starters next year?

#10 jorgenswest

jorgenswest

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,611 posts

Posted 30 June 2012 - 08:22 PM

Why would Greinke sign now with the Twins when he can test the market in a few months?

#11 Top Gun

Top Gun

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,253 posts

Posted 30 June 2012 - 08:33 PM

It can be done, trade Blackburn for him.

#12 Ultima Ratio

Ultima Ratio

    Super Friend

  • Members
  • 1,746 posts
  • LocationAt my computer

Posted 30 June 2012 - 08:36 PM

Twins had better only be looking to trade for potential or clearly successful starters who have decent contracts and with at least 2 years remaining. Otherwise wait for free agency.
Man is born free, but everywhere he is in chains.

#13 Top Gun

Top Gun

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,253 posts

Posted 30 June 2012 - 08:46 PM

I bet if you gave him 25M per year, you could sign him right now,

#14 TKGuy

TKGuy

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 303 posts

Posted 30 June 2012 - 08:58 PM

So who's starting next year, because we don't have the trade chips to get someone under team control. Diamond Baker (iffy off surgery?) Gibson FA? FA? Walters De Vries I don't think we should give up on 2013 also

#15 BD57

BD57

    Member

  • Members
  • 70 posts

Posted 30 June 2012 - 09:02 PM

Would have to have an extension at a reasonable number. Don't think it's really an option, though - I can't see why Greinke would pass up on seeing what's out there as a FA. And I think he could find a lot of places where things would be "small enough" for him to be happy.

#16 John Bonnes

John Bonnes

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 4,954 posts

Posted 30 June 2012 - 09:07 PM

In general, I think any thoughts that the Twins are going to pony up the money and years to sign Greinke or Hamels is a little crazy. Greinke could command something like 5yrs/$90M. The Twins aren't going to do that. I don't think the Twins should do that. The Twins view of starting pitching for years has been that it has to be good enough to keep a team in the game, not dominant. I can't imagine them breaking the bank to go against that philosophy.

#17 kab21

kab21

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 2,393 posts

Posted 30 June 2012 - 09:50 PM

Players rarely give big discounts when they are 3 months away from FA. Especially when the team that they are going to has one of the worst records in the majors. So it is foolish to even talk about this. I'm all about trying to sign him in the offseason though even I really don't it to happen.

#18 SpiritofVodkaDave

SpiritofVodkaDave

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 4,126 posts

Posted 01 July 2012 - 01:51 AM

In general, I think any thoughts that the Twins are going to pony up the money and years to sign Greinke or Hamels is a little crazy. Greinke could command something like 5yrs/$90M. The Twins aren't going to do that. I don't think the Twins should do that.

The Twins view of starting pitching for years has been that it has to be good enough to keep a team in the game, not dominant. I can't imagine them breaking the bank to go against that philosophy.

5/90 would be a decent get for a guy like Grienke IMO.
Most likely he will be looking at a Cain type deal around 6 years/120-130 mil.

#19 Brock Beauchamp

Brock Beauchamp

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 8,723 posts

Posted 01 July 2012 - 07:09 AM

In general, I think any thoughts that the Twins are going to pony up the money and years to sign Greinke or Hamels is a little crazy. Greinke could command something like 5yrs/$90M. The Twins aren't going to do that. I don't think the Twins should do that.

The Twins view of starting pitching for years has been that it has to be good enough to keep a team in the game, not dominant. I can't imagine them breaking the bank to go against that philosophy.


I think the Twins would do well for themselves if they could get Greinke for $17m a year for five years.

But I think Greinke will go for more than that.

But I agree with your general point. Starting pitching is incredibly volatile and the Twins have avoided sinking themselves for the past decade by not dedicating too much money to any single starter. I don't think that will change.

#20 Badsmerf

Badsmerf

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,655 posts

Posted 01 July 2012 - 10:16 AM

In general, I think any thoughts that the Twins are going to pony up the money and years to sign Greinke or Hamels is a little crazy. Greinke could command something like 5yrs/$90M. The Twins aren't going to do that. I don't think the Twins should do that.

The Twins view of starting pitching for years has been that it has to be good enough to keep a team in the game, not dominant. I can't imagine them breaking the bank to go against that philosophy.


And this has done them how well in the past? That's right, they haven't won a playoff series for a decade and haven't won anything else in over 2 now. This line of thinking is wrong, and the Twins have done their best to make everyone in MN think they are right. I seriously despise this way of thinking because it doesn't win. When is the last time a team won with mediocre pitchers signed cheap? It doesn't happen anymore, the game has changed. The Twins have to wake up at some point and realize putting even 20 mil. into 1 pitcher that is a top 20 guy will payoff more than signing 2 for 10 mil that "keep you in games."

What does signing a guy like Hamels, and Greike do for the Twins? Instead of "keeping them in a game" they have the ability to completely dominate a game and win it by themselves. Plus, these guys are in their prime still and unless get significantly injured will provide this throughout their contract. Think it was an accident the Twins made the playoffs 4 of the 6 years Santana was with the team and only 2 since he left? Granted, Santana didn't do it by himself, but he was a huge part of it while winning his Cy-Young awards (Colon's doesn't count). A front-line starter only impacts a game once every 5 games, while getting 2 for the same money impacts 2 games; what a deal (the argument of Twins thinking). Problem is you have a better chance to win that 1 game than you do either of the other 2. Gamblers fallacy, just because you gamble more times doesn't mean you have a better chance the next time.

The Twins have a pretty solid line-up. There are positions that could be upgraded, true. Is spending 5 million on another Jamey Carrol really going to help this team? The glaring needs are up the middle in the INF right now. Dozier may or may not be able to handle it (I think he will be an average player given this season to work through). However, starting pitching is much more of a need. Do the Twins need to draft and bring up a player in order to spend a lot of money on them? I don't see how Mauer's contract would have been that much different had he been on the FA market (few million maybe, but we're talking <10%). My point is, if you want talent sometimes you have to pay for it.... especially if you don't know how to draft it.

#21 Brock Beauchamp

Brock Beauchamp

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 8,723 posts

Posted 01 July 2012 - 10:23 AM

And this has done them how well in the past? That's right, they haven't won a playoff series for a decade and haven't won anything else in over 2 now. This line of thinking is wrong, and the Twins have done their best to make everyone in MN think they are right. I seriously despise this way of thinking because it doesn't win. When is the last time a team won with mediocre pitchers signed cheap? It doesn't happen anymore, the game has changed. The Twins have to wake up at some point and realize putting even 20 mil. into 1 pitcher that is a top 20 guy will payoff more than signing 2 for 10 mil that "keep you in games."

What does signing a guy like Hamels, and Greike do for the Twins? Instead of "keeping them in a game" they have the ability to completely dominate a game and win it by themselves. Plus, these guys are in their prime still and unless get significantly injured will provide this throughout their contract. Think it was an accident the Twins made the playoffs 4 of the 6 years Santana was with the team and only 2 since he left? Granted, Santana didn't do it by himself, but he was a huge part of it while winning his Cy-Young awards (Colon's doesn't count). A front-line starter only impacts a game once every 5 games, while getting 2 for the same money impacts 2 games; what a deal (the argument of Twins thinking). Problem is you have a better chance to win that 1 game than you do either of the other 2. Gamblers fallacy, just because you gamble more times doesn't mean you have a better chance the next time.

The Twins have a pretty solid line-up. There are positions that could be upgraded, true. Is spending 5 million on another Jamey Carrol really going to help this team? The glaring needs are up the middle in the INF right now. Dozier may or may not be able to handle it (I think he will be an average player given this season to work through). However, starting pitching is much more of a need. Do the Twins need to draft and bring up a player in order to spend a lot of money on them? I don't see how Mauer's contract would have been that much different had he been on the FA market (few million maybe, but we're talking <10%). My point is, if you want talent sometimes you have to pay for it.... especially if you don't know how to draft it.


The problem is that these front line starters require not only massive yearly paychecks but they also require it for 5+ years. I'm all for the Twins retaining a guy they bring up through the minors... You can usually lock those guys up for less time if you sign them long-term in year four or five of arb.

With Joe Mauer, the Twins have hamstrung themselves with a large, long player contract. Do you really think it's smart to take on another contract of that magnitude for a starting pitcher, which is an even more volatile position than catcher? I could see the Twins easily burying themselves for a half decade with just one bad pitching signing.

With that said, I think the most potential lays somewhere in the middle. You may not be able to get a Greinke or Hamels but you should be able to get someone younger and better than Carl Pavano for not much more money. Then you hope and pray you develop your own ace starter from drafts.

#22 spideyo

spideyo

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 603 posts

Posted 01 July 2012 - 06:21 PM

I would go for it if we could work an extension deal out. Span is probably overall a better player right now than Revere, but he does have a history of concussions and other head issues, and I think eventually Revere will at least match, if not surpass his value. It would also be a lot easier for the organization to pursue OF outside the organization if they could actually give them a starting position. Alternately, you could send Plouffe out there and go after a better defensive 3B. As far as Parmelee goes, I like the kid but he is going to have more success and sooner in a different organization. I REALLY doubt Mourneau will be going anywhere anytime soon, and when he does we have Mauer, Doumit, and occasionally even Plouffe that can play 1b. As a left handed thrower, he isn't that useful to a team that doesn't need a 1b. As a left handed batter, he could be very valuable to a team that doesn't have 4 lefties and a switch hitter who are everyday players (and hitting decently). While I know Grienke could get a ton of money and probably pitch for just about any team he wanted to, every interview I've seen and everything I've read about him makes me think that he is the rare sports star who will NOT sign the biggest deal he possibly could. He has made it pretty clear he does NOT want to play in a huge market like NY. His agent might hate it, but I think if you offered him a fair deal and a good situation, where he isn't going to have camera crews and reporters following him constantly and isn't going to be pressured to be a big public presence, he'll take it. Also, if a guy doesn't want to deal with the anxiety and pressure that comes from playing in NY or somewhere like that, I'm gonna guess he would be perfectly ok avoiding the stress and anxiety of dealing with free agency. Now, this would be the stupidest deal in the world if we didn't have a long-term deal lined up for him. We have no business renting a player this year. But if Terry Ryan could check off one HUGE thing on his 2013 to do list in July, everybody is gonna be a lot happier.

#23 Jim H

Jim H

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 439 posts

Posted 01 July 2012 - 06:46 PM

I can't imagine why the Twins would trade for Grienke, that makes little sense. Trying to sign him in the off season however, does make sense. There are some serious risks involved, and probably means that certain other rather good players won't be retained because of budget, in coming years. Having a genuine ace at the top of rotation would be a very good thing, and any such player developed in the Twins organization is at least 3 and probably more like 5 years away if there are any in the organization right now. Whether signing a Grienke is a good idea depends on whether you think there will be enough good young players in the Twins organization to give the Twins enough cheap productive players during the next 5 years to help make them consistently competitive. Having Mauer and Grienke eating a big chunk of the budget means that you can't cover your holes with money. You have to have good young players filling those holes.

#24 old nurse

old nurse

    Member

  • Members
  • 1,711 posts

Posted 01 July 2012 - 06:53 PM

Because they think they can draft two better players with the draft picks they would get for Grienke. No I am not serious.

#25 Riverbrian

Riverbrian

    Goofy Moderator

  • Twins Mods
  • 9,384 posts
  • LocationGrand Forks

Posted 01 July 2012 - 07:19 PM

Trading for Greinke is gonna cost you prospects... We need to acquire them. Greinke will play in New York... I'd bet my money the Yankees are scouting him right now. Its a social anxiety disorder. Any Baseball Market is a big city with lots of people and social stimuli. The Yankees wil protect him and shelter him from press and outside baseball activities. Whoever trades for Greinke will have a pretty good idea if they can work a deal out because that will determine what they are willing to part with. Hamels is going to be pursued in the off season. He will have his pick of contending teams. Its gonna take overpaying some one like Shields or Anibel Sanchez. I really don't know if The Rays would pick up the Option on Shields contract at 9m. The Rays are not big spenders but 9M is fairly reasonable.

#26 spideyo

spideyo

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 603 posts

Posted 01 July 2012 - 07:23 PM

I'm sure the Yankees are scouting him right now, but I'd bet large money that he never wears the pinstripes. It's not gonna happen.

#27 Riverbrian

Riverbrian

    Goofy Moderator

  • Twins Mods
  • 9,384 posts
  • LocationGrand Forks

Posted 01 July 2012 - 07:49 PM

]

I'm sure the Yankees are scouting him right now, but I'd bet large money that he never wears the pinstripes. It's not gonna happen.


LOL... I can't take that bet. Unless you give odds that represent the possibilities. The Yankees will not be the only team trying to trade for him... I'll do 30 to 1 for each MLB possibility...

I'll bet one Buffalo Wing and if I win... You owe me 30. LOL... You ok with that.

#28 TKGuy

TKGuy

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 303 posts

Posted 01 July 2012 - 07:52 PM

The FA class for starters is putrid this year. Joe Saunders,Edwin Jackson and Anibel Sanchez, so Hamels will make a killing. Still think Greinke will end up in mid market, like St. Louis unless TR can get him here.

#29 Cody Christie

Cody Christie

    Twins Contributor

  • Twins Contributors
  • 838 posts

Posted 01 July 2012 - 08:44 PM

If the Twins want to get Greinke, they aren't going to offer up anything major. He will be a free agent at the end of the season and they will go after him at that point if they want him. It will take a lot of money but it would be nice to have him at the top of the rotation for next season. Especially with all of the unknowns for the rotation in 2013.

#30 biggentleben

biggentleben

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,002 posts

Posted 01 July 2012 - 10:49 PM

With Joe Mauer, the Twins have hamstrung themselves with a large, long player contract. Do you really think it's smart to take on another contract of that magnitude for a starting pitcher, which is an even more volatile position than catcher? I could see the Twins easily burying themselves for a half decade with just one bad pitching signing.


This cannot be the argument, however. Look at the Braves recently with the Derek Lowe and Kenshin Kawakami signings in the same offseason. Both were disasters in the end, Kawakami's because of performance alone, and Lowe's in performance relative to salary. However, both players were able to be moved this offseason and not destroy the franchise, which still has a tremendous depth of pitching. Now, the Braves are considered front runners in the trade market for Greinke and/or Garza.

I do see the value in developing your own, but another area the Twins have balked at recently was going after the guy under team control that another squad knew they could not sign long-term. A guy like Mat Latos would be a great example. The Twins did not have a stud minor league catcher to include in the deal like Grandal, but they certainly had talent of similar value around baseball in the offseason. Would that mean a guy like Oswaldo Arcia or Eddie Rosario or Liam Hendriks, or all three may be forging their careers in San Diego? Sure, but that's the risk to get a guy like Latos that you could buy out some arbitration years from and sign long-term to be that kind of ace. It's an area that could see the Twins and Braves (I'm talking about them a lot in this post, but in this issue, they're a good example) could match up well this offseason. Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson will both be arbitration eligible, and while Jurrjens will likely be had for a song, barring a major turnaround the rest of this season, Hanson is a legit talent with front-end stuff. He's had some consistency issues, but basically any starter on the planet has those same issues. The Braves are going to be looking for a CF if they cannot resign Michael Bourn (the easy best candidate for the All-Star vote, though I'd prefer to see Chipper in his last year or Bryce Harper in the game), and the foundation of a trade being Hanson and Span is absolutely a possibility. Those are the sort of deals the Twins need to be looking toward, and they've recently only given away pitchers with that kind of talent, not acquired them.
Staff Writer for Tomahawktake.com, come check it out!