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Rosario, Vargas, Arcia, Santana

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#41 Mike Sixel

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Posted 29 May 2015 - 08:40 AM

I'd prefer they keep Rosario up here, defense and a bit of bat (unlike Hicks, who has no bat). I'd prefer either Vargas or Arcia or Pinto at DH over anyone else (except Hunter) they are using right now.

 

Frankly, I'd call up Sano to DH in about 2 weeks, and skip right over Vargas and Arcia. I'd probably call up Buxton too. Send down Hicks, cut Nunez.

 

But, having Pinto, Arcia, and Vargas mash AAA pitching, while their MLB DH are awful? Hate that.

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#42 Linus

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Posted 29 May 2015 - 08:48 AM

Couple of thoughts.....first of all, there is no logjam.Logjam should be defined as too many PROVEN MLB players at a given position.Right now, none in question are proven so there is no logjam.I just hope one of them steps up and settles the issue.

 

I love that Arcia can mash a cookie.That's about where the love stops - he is poor in the field and good pitchers will get him out consistently until he gains some strike zone discipline and stops swinging out of his shoes.The combo of Hicks and Rosario in the outfield has saved numerous runs and probably won us a ballgame or two in this nice little run.

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#43 Kirby_waved_at_me

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Posted 29 May 2015 - 08:49 AM

 

I agree that Arcia has been frustrating but if you send him to AAA, he's going to do exactly what he always does to AAA pitching: absolutely destroy it.

 

If he's going to correct his problems, he's going to need to do it in Minnesota under Bruno's tutelage. It's not as if he's posting an 80 OPS+. In 65 PAs this season, he has a 99 OPS+. Yeah, you want more than that out of a DH but it's just 65 PAs from a guy who has destroyed MiLB pitching multiple times. Let him work out his issues - which are minor - at the major league level.

Yes, I agree with all of that - If Arcia is recovered fully from his injury, he should be coming up."Fully recovered" the issue with me - it means healthy, but it also means that his timing and discipline have returned. Not that he's ever been especially patient at the plate, but so far this year he's been hacking at everything.

 

To your point about him mashing in the minors - He can be successful in AAA without actually becoming a better hitter, I agree with that too. He has a better chance of learning / developing against MLB pitching and with the orgs best hitting coach.

 

My argument in favor of Arcia staying in AAA is just to make sure he's healthy and recovered first.


#44 spinowner

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Posted 29 May 2015 - 08:49 AM

 

Arcia is exactly the bat the Twins need, a lefty masher.

 

I hope Arcia can show the Twins he's ready to come back and hit like he's capable of hitting.

It's easy to picture Arcia hitting 40 dingers a year in the near future. (Same for Vargas and Sano, for that matter.) Gotta find a way to get him in the lineup somehow.

I hope the Twins break camp next spring with Arcia, Buxton, Hicks and Rosario as their four outfielders. We oughta be able to do well with that.


#45 Mike Sixel

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Posted 29 May 2015 - 08:52 AM

It's "easy" to picture 40 HRs in a year?

 

No, not even from Sano or Stanton or anyone else.

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It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#46 Kirby_waved_at_me

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Posted 29 May 2015 - 08:52 AM

 

I'd prefer they keep Rosario up here, defense and a bit of bat (unlike Hicks, who has no bat). I'd prefer either Vargas or Arcia or Pinto at DH over anyone else (except Hunter) they are using right now.

 

Frankly, I'd call up Sano to DH in about 2 weeks, and skip right over Vargas and Arcia. I'd probably call up Buxton too. Send down Hicks, cut Nunez.

 

But, having Pinto, Arcia, and Vargas mash AAA pitching, while their MLB DH are awful? Hate that.

I definitely think that at least two of Pinto, Arcia, and Vargas should be on the MLB club, if not all three. They have better bats than anyone the Twins would use regularly at DH right now. Arcia might not be ready health-wise and timing-wise, but I didn't think Vargas should be demoted in the first place and PInto... I never really understood what he's gaining by being wasted in AAA.  


#47 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 29 May 2015 - 08:53 AM

 

To your point about him mashing in the minors - He can be successful in AAA without actually becoming a better hitter, I agree with that too. He has a better chance of learning / developing against MLB pitching and with the orgs best hitting coach.

That's the core of my point. Arcia can put himself on cruise control and mash AAA pitching. He's not learning from that experience. If you need him to take a different approach and learn, he's going to have to do it at a level where he faces adversity, not somewhere he can just tee off and post video game stats.

 

I think this applies specifically to Oswaldo because he doesn't seem to be the most coachable player on the planet. He seems like the type of guy who will continue to do something, no matter how bad it is for his long-term development, until he stops seeing success from it. Lots of players can have success in MiLB while still altering their approach and style of play. Oswaldo doesn't strike me as one of those players.

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#48 AKTwins

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Posted 29 May 2015 - 08:59 AM

 

Fien back, Stauffer DFA'd

 

Vargas up, Santana down to Rochester

 

End result- Rosario in left, Escobar at short, Vargas at DH, Arcia stays in Rochester until he earns his way up. 

I with you on this. Santana needs some more time to develop at shortstop.  Unfortunately, he had to play CF last year and lost some of his developmental time. Escobar is an upgrade defensively and has good at bats.  I think part of the reason the pitchers are doing well is the improved defense.  Obviously, Arcia does not help in that department.  If the Twins wants Vargas to stay in Roch, then have Arcia do some DHing.  Or bring Arcia back up and release Schaffer when he gets off the DL.


#49 Gene Larkin

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Posted 29 May 2015 - 09:05 AM

I suspect part of Arcia's struggles defensively this year have been having to play LF, as opposed to RF, where he had spent the bulk of his time in the minors and with the big league club. Until Hunter is gone, the best bet I think for Arcia would be to DH, with an occasional start in RF to spell Hunter. Rosario is a far superior option defensively in LF, plus he's now hitting around .280. Rosario and Hicks are getting to a lot more balls than the options the Twins had at the start of the season. Look what good outfield defense has done for the Royals. Let's try to replicate that as much as possible.


#50 Vance_Christianson

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Posted 29 May 2015 - 09:08 AM

I know Arcia is only 24 years with TONS of upside, but he's been hampering our OF for the past 2+ seasons with his constant Injuries and terrible defense. His bat is average at best for a corner OF.

 

If I was GM this is who I'd put out on the table for trades:

Oswaldo Arcia - only 24 years old, but way too many injuries!

Kennys Vargas - I think he has some decent upside (power switch hitter) on this roster for 1-2 more years till our AA guys are all ready to go.

Mike Pelfrey/Ricky Nolasco/Tommy Milone - I'd dangle all 3 of them out there, and see who gets us the best return. I'd only trade if the value is right. We don't need to give away our SP depth.

Danny Santana - His time is up I think. Polanco will be here around July. Good player, just not better than our depth that is on its way up.

Josmil Pinto - We don't need 14 DH's and another below average C

 

 

Everyone is saying we don't have a logjam, etc, but we definitely have 1 at the DH spot right now! I'd give it to Vargas right now for the simple fact that he is a backup 1b and he's a switch hitter.

 

I'd like to see us make a big splashy trade in the next month or so, and I have a hunch that it'll be either for a C or LF. Put Rosario or Hicks as the everyday CF and the other as the 4th OF. I'd say trade either Rosario or Hicks as Buxton will be up as well, but I just don't know when. I'd like to see by July or August for Buxton.

Edited by Vance_Christianson, 29 May 2015 - 09:13 AM.


#51 drivlikejehu

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Posted 29 May 2015 - 09:13 AM

The Twins need to figure out what they have in the guys that already performed in the minor leagues. Burying Arcia - an above average career MLB hitter - in AAA would make no sense at all. May as well just trade him at that point.

 

On the other hand, Rosario needs to be in the minors working on his plate discipline. One walk and sixteen strikeouts is not a viable approach at the plate. 

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#52 Boone

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Posted 29 May 2015 - 09:17 AM

Don't know why everyone thinks Vargas, Rosario, and Polanco are MLB-ready offensively.  They're not:

 

Vargas

A+ (2013): 20.2% K, 9.6% BB, .48 BB/K, .813 OPS (125 games)

AA (2014): 16.8% K, 10.6% BB, .63 BB/K, .832 OPS (97 games)

MLB (2014-15): 26.9% K, 5.5% BB, .20 BB/K, .734 OPS (82 games)

AAA (2015): 24.2% K, 9.1% BB, .38 BB/K, 1.158 OPS (8 games)

 

Notice how much worse his plate discipline numbers were in the majors compared to his last two seasons in the minors, especially his strikeout-rate.  Clearly, he wasn't MLB ready.  Also, notice how his plate discipline numbers are worse in AAA than they were in his last two seasons in the minors.  This is evidence that he needs a little more time in Rochester.  Big point: we might think of Vargas as a "home run or strikeout" kind of hitter because that's what he has seemed like for the Twins, but he was much more of a pure hitter in A+ and AA.  If we want that kind of player--and we do--he could use more time in the minors.

Yes, I'm aware of Vargas's silly OPS so far in AAA.  But in just an 8 game sample, that number is incredibly volatile--much more so than his plate discipline numbers.  Vargas's numbers in AAA are being boosted by a completely unsustainable .421 BABIP.  

 

Rosario

A (2012): 16.1% K, 7.2% BB, .45 BB/K, .835 OPS (95 games)

A+ (2013): 12.6% K, 7.4% BB, .59 BB/K, .903 OPS (52 games)

AA (2013-2014): 20.8% K, 5.9% BB, .28 BB/K, .706 OPS (149 games)

AAA (2015): 17.0% K, 5.0% BB, .29 BB/K, .659 OPS (23 games)

MLB (2015): 30.2% K, 1.9% BB, .06 BB/K, .708 OPS (16 games)

 

Rosario was a stud hitter in A and A+, but since then his strikeout rate has increased and his walk rate has decreased.  While both of these were marginal changes, together they've led to a pretty significant drop in his BB/K ratio in both AA and AAA; this is a large reason why his OPS numbers have been so poor the last two seasons.  This development has been taken to an extreme so far with the Twins, as Rosario is striking out almost twice as frequently as in his minor league career and almost never drawing a walk.  For a guy who really struggled in AA a year ago, and was not great (by his standards) in 23 games in AAA, it seems clear to me that Rosario could use some time in AAA.

Also, just for the sake of comparison, Aaron HIcks has struck out in 29.2% of his at bats so far in his ML career.  Rosario has struck out in 32% of his at bats.  Yes, it's early.  But still not what you want to see.

 

Polanco

A (2013): 11.3% K, 8.0% BB, .71 BB/K, .813 OPS (115 games)

A+ (2014): 13.9% K, 10.6% BB, .77 BB/K, .780 OPS (94 games)

AA (2014-15): 16.3% K, 5.5% BB, .34 BB/K, .730 OPS (79 games)

 

Once again, Polanco's plate discipline numbers are significantly worse in AA than they were in A and A+.  While his strikeout rate is still quite good--albeit higher than in A or A+--his walk rate is significantly worse.  As a result, he's drawing fewer than half as many walks per strikeout.  His OPS is struggling as a result.

In short, it doesn't seem like Polanco has really mastered AA pitching quite yet.  What makes us think that he's ready for MLB pitchers?

 

One last thing: what do Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia, and Kennys Vargas all have in common?

Answer: they all tore up AA pitching, skipped AAA, and then struggled in the majors to the point where they had to be demoted to AAA.  To a lesser extent, this is happening to Eddie Rosario.  Do we want to keep on having our top hitting prospects skip AAA?  

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#53 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 29 May 2015 - 09:18 AM

 

I know Arcia is only 24 years with TONS of upside, but he's been hampering our OF for the past 2+ seasons with his constant Injuries and terrible defense. His bat is average at best for a corner OF.

It's waaaaaaaayyyyy too early to make that kind of statement. With a few key tweaks to his approach, Arcia could easily turn into a 110-125 OPS+ guy in the blink of an eye.

 

As you said, he's just 24 years old.


#54 Thrylos

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Posted 29 May 2015 - 09:20 AM

 

I was referring to what position, not what team. I think he can still hit well enough to stay in the majors, but a trip to AAA wouldn't hurt.

 

Move him to Rochester and have him play 2B, SS and OF so he can be a utility player come next year... 

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#55 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 29 May 2015 - 09:23 AM

 

Do we want to keep on having our top hitting prospects skip AAA?  

Good post, lots of insight but I'm just going to tackle this part of the post.

 

In a word, yes.

 

There's nothing wrong with giving a guy a taste of MLB pitching if you believe he has the talent and mental preparation needed to face MLB pitchers. The same goes for pitching prospects that you feel have a chance at success in MLB.

 

Demoting a guy who has some success but still needs to refine his approach isn't the worst thing in the world, provided you think he can handle failure at the MLB level. There's no singular approach to take with prospects, you have to play it by ear and make single-case decisions based on a host of factors that can't be seen in a box score.

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#56 Vance_Christianson

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Posted 29 May 2015 - 09:24 AM

 

It's waaaaaaaayyyyy too early to make that kind of statement. With a few key tweaks to his approach, Arcia could easily turn into a 110-125 OPS+ guy in the blink of an eye.

 

As you said, he's just 24 years old.

The same tweaks they've been trying to make for 2+ plus seasons while he's hurt every other week. NEXT! I hope he becomes a great player, but he's hampering our 25 man roster with his inconsistency and injuries.


#57 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 29 May 2015 - 09:36 AM

 

The same tweaks they've been trying to make for 2+ plus seasons while he's hurt every other week. NEXT! I hope he becomes a great player, but he's hampering our 25 man roster with his inconsistency and injuries.

It takes time for the process to click with some prospects. Arcia's injury history is unfortunate but guys are often "injury prone" until they aren't. The same is true of "workhorses". Past injuries (or lack thereof) are little indication of future injuries (unless it's a permanent injury that has a good chance of being aggravated again).

 

Oswaldo has 850 PAs with a 103 OPS+.

 

Torii Hunter's first 800 PAs resulted in a 76 OPS+.

Justin Morneau's first 900 PAs resulted in a 100 OPS+.

Michael Cuddyer's first 1100 PAs resulted in a 97 OPS+.

 

I just can't understand why people give up on prospects so quickly. This is part of the learning process. This happens to so many players who become productive MLB players. There are far more Michael Cuddyers in baseball than Mike Trouts.

 

Patience. Patience. Patience. That's the name of the game with prospects.

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#58 SwainZag

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Posted 29 May 2015 - 09:37 AM

 

I know Arcia is only 24 years with TONS of upside, but he's been hampering our OF for the past 2+ seasons with his constant Injuries and terrible defense. His bat is average at best for a corner OF.

 

If I was GM this is who I'd put out on the table for trades:

Oswaldo Arcia - only 24 years old, but way too many injuries!

Kennys Vargas - I think he has some decent upside (power switch hitter) on this roster for 1-2 more years till our AA guys are all ready to go.

Mike Pelfrey/Ricky Nolasco/Tommy Milone - I'd dangle all 3 of them out there, and see who gets us the best return. I'd only trade if the value is right. We don't need to give away our SP depth.

Danny Santana - His time is up I think. Polanco will be here around July. Good player, just not better than our depth that is on its way up.

Josmil Pinto - We don't need 14 DH's and another below average C

 

 

Everyone is saying we don't have a logjam, etc, but we definitely have 1 at the DH spot right now! I'd give it to Vargas right now for the simple fact that he is a backup 1b and he's a switch hitter.

 

I'd like to see us make a big splashy trade in the next month or so, and I have a hunch that it'll be either for a C or LF. Put Rosario or Hicks as the everyday CF and the other as the 4th OF. I'd say trade either Rosario or Hicks as Buxton will be up as well, but I just don't know when. I'd like to see by July or August for Buxton.

 

I don't understand why this team would dangle Arcia/Vargas/Pinto/Santana/Rosario/Hicks right now.  All are young, cheap and likely haven't hit their peak yet and provide great depth.  On top of that unless you are packaging at least 3, you aren't getting anything back in return that is worthwhile.  

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#59 Mike Sixel

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Posted 29 May 2015 - 09:38 AM

What is "ready"? by the time they "prove" they are ready, which they can't......they will be in their mid-20s or older. You promote people just before they are ready. You promote them when you need them. You promote them to challenge them. You promote them for lots of reasons other than waiting until they somehow prove something they can't prove.

 

Arcia can hit MLB pitching, the question is, should he also be playing the field on a team that might be contending? I vote no. Either he or Vargas should DH until Sano comes up, imo.

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It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#60 Linus

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Posted 29 May 2015 - 10:17 AM

 

Don't know why everyone thinks Vargas, Rosario, and Polanco are MLB-ready offensively.  They're not:

 

Vargas

A+ (2013): 20.2% K, 9.6% BB, .48 BB/K, .813 OPS (125 games)

AA (2014): 16.8% K, 10.6% BB, .63 BB/K, .832 OPS (97 games)

MLB (2014-15): 26.9% K, 5.5% BB, .20 BB/K, .734 OPS (82 games)

AAA (2015): 24.2% K, 9.1% BB, .38 BB/K, 1.158 OPS (8 games)

 

Notice how much worse his plate discipline numbers were in the majors compared to his last two seasons in the minors, especially his strikeout-rate.  Clearly, he wasn't MLB ready.  Also, notice how his plate discipline numbers are worse in AAA than they were in his last two seasons in the minors.  This is evidence that he needs a little more time in Rochester.  Big point: we might think of Vargas as a "home run or strikeout" kind of hitter because that's what he has seemed like for the Twins, but he was much more of a pure hitter in A+ and AA.  If we want that kind of player--and we do--he could use more time in the minors.

Yes, I'm aware of Vargas's silly OPS so far in AAA.  But in just an 8 game sample, that number is incredibly volatile--much more so than his plate discipline numbers.  Vargas's numbers in AAA are being boosted by a completely unsustainable .421 BABIP.  

 

Rosario

A (2012): 16.1% K, 7.2% BB, .45 BB/K, .835 OPS (95 games)

A+ (2013): 12.6% K, 7.4% BB, .59 BB/K, .903 OPS (52 games)

AA (2013-2014): 20.8% K, 5.9% BB, .28 BB/K, .706 OPS (149 games)

AAA (2015): 17.0% K, 5.0% BB, .29 BB/K, .659 OPS (23 games)

MLB (2015): 30.2% K, 1.9% BB, .06 BB/K, .708 OPS (16 games)

 

Rosario was a stud hitter in A and A+, but since then his strikeout rate has increased and his walk rate has decreased.  While both of these were marginal changes, together they've led to a pretty significant drop in his BB/K ratio in both AA and AAA; this is a large reason why his OPS numbers have been so poor the last two seasons.  This development has been taken to an extreme so far with the Twins, as Rosario is striking out almost twice as frequently as in his minor league career and almost never drawing a walk.  For a guy who really struggled in AA a year ago, and was not great (by his standards) in 23 games in AAA, it seems clear to me that Rosario could use some time in AAA.

Also, just for the sake of comparison, Aaron HIcks has struck out in 29.2% of his at bats so far in his ML career.  Rosario has struck out in 32% of his at bats.  Yes, it's early.  But still not what you want to see.

 

Polanco

A (2013): 11.3% K, 8.0% BB, .71 BB/K, .813 OPS (115 games)

A+ (2014): 13.9% K, 10.6% BB, .77 BB/K, .780 OPS (94 games)

AA (2014-15): 16.3% K, 5.5% BB, .34 BB/K, .730 OPS (79 games)

 

Once again, Polanco's plate discipline numbers are significantly worse in AA than they were in A and A+.  While his strikeout rate is still quite good--albeit higher than in A or A+--his walk rate is significantly worse.  As a result, he's drawing fewer than half as many walks per strikeout.  His OPS is struggling as a result.

In short, it doesn't seem like Polanco has really mastered AA pitching quite yet.  What makes us think that he's ready for MLB pitchers?

 

One last thing: what do Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia, and Kennys Vargas all have in common?

Answer: they all tore up AA pitching, skipped AAA, and then struggled in the majors to the point where they had to be demoted to AAA.  To a lesser extent, this is happening to Eddie Rosario.  Do we want to keep on having our top hitting prospects skip AAA?  

This.Thank you for the most rational analysis of this situation.The plain reality of prospects would dictate that if two of the three turned into good MLB players we should be jumping for joy.The odds that only one of the three makes it are much higher than most posters would think or realize.

 

While not all prospects need to go to AAA before the majors, I would say most do.I think we all need to get by the idea that one good month in Chattanooga means they need to be called up to the Twins.

Edited by Linus, 29 May 2015 - 10:19 AM.

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