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Deep fantasy baseball league

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#221 username

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Posted 21 September 2013 - 06:24 AM

it might not be obvious from this morning's box scores, but i got incredibly lucky last night. well, that's if you discount the fact i got chacin's and latos' worst starts of the season. but anyway, at one point i was down ~10 points, with price in line for a W and my pitchers in line for losses, when the following happened:

- price and rays bullpen allow orioles to come back (net gain 10 points)
- indians game gets called after 7 innings (he has santana, kipnis and swisher)
- melancon blows save, allows latos to escape without loss (net gain 16 points)
- chacin pulled, rockies take lead in bottom of inning (net gain 15 points)

yeah, those W and L swings in our scoring system are way too big. hopefully we can find some resolution.

#222 PseudoSABR

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Posted 21 September 2013 - 09:23 AM

yeah, those W and L swings in our scoring system are way too big. hopefully we can find some resolution.

Perhaps, but they allow for unpredictable variation. I don't think it's a good idea to move over to predictive or evaluative statistical model for 'fantasy' because the whole point is to measure what actually happens, not what should.

Having success in a 'wins' league means you have to factor in more than just your starting pitchers capacity to pitch well, you have to factor in bullpen, opponents, parks and luck. It's simply not much fun if we just come up a scoring system that does that math for us, and makes it easier on the people that fail to look at player's within context.

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Posted 21 September 2013 - 10:06 AM

Perhaps, but they allow for unpredictable variation. I don't think it's a good idea to move over to predictive or evaluative statistical model for 'fantasy' because the whole point is to measure what actually happens, not what should.

Having success in a 'wins' league means you have to factor in more than just your starting pitchers capacity to pitch well, you have to factor in bullpen, opponents, parks and luck. It's simply not much fun if we just come up a scoring system that does that math for us, and makes it easier on the people that fail to look at player's within context.


i think there's enough variance in fantasy sports - and baseball, generally, really - and the additional swings that wins and losses introduce just make it a total crapshoot.

if we had a "real" scoring system, do you think our fantasy games would be any less exciting? you would still spend the offseason trying to figure out whether player X would score more than player Y, but you would just be looking at a different package of statistics in making your determination.

last night, nick might have lost because Fernando Rodney couldn't strike out Danny Valencia (making this up but you get my point); neither of us own these players. does that seem right to you?

there may be a place for wins and losses but 15 points is just enormous relative to everything else.

#224 PseudoSABR

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Posted 21 September 2013 - 01:42 PM

I agree that a 15 point swing is too much. I'd put more value into innings themselves to offset any reduction to wins/losses.

Sure it's a bit contrived, but Nova's game today sure makes for an interesting Saturday and Sunday...

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Posted 22 September 2013 - 07:52 PM

I agree that a 15 point swing is too much. I'd put more value into innings themselves to offset any reduction to wins/losses.

Sure it's a bit contrived, but Nova's game today sure makes for an interesting Saturday and Sunday...


dodged the supernova and looks like i finally pulled it out. it's about time!! thanks for the support lol

#226 PseudoSABR

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Posted 22 September 2013 - 09:29 PM

Congrats, dude!

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Posted 23 September 2013 - 07:37 AM

Congrats, dude!


thanks. i forget if we're allowed to talk trades in the off-season (did that rule get lifted?), but in case you guys are interested i'll probably start looking to move fielder, cano, cc, etc and start rebuilding.

#228 kab21

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Posted 23 September 2013 - 09:05 AM

Score one for BYTO.

I think I traded all of my top prospects already and I'm not interested in anymore alright old veterans. My team is fully stocked with those.

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Posted 23 September 2013 - 08:52 PM

Score one for BYTO.

I think I traded all of my top prospects already and I'm not interested in anymore alright old veterans. My team is fully stocked with those.


upon closer inspection, nobody except tangerine has any prospects! that guy's team is going to be stacked in a couple years.

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Posted 22 October 2013 - 12:38 PM

hey guys,

so Tim told me that the teams leaving are:

Williemoes
Winti
Billy Mays Hamilton

also, Mac has been MIA for months, so he may need to be replaced. he did this once before though and came back from the dead, so who knows.

i tried to encourage tim to pool the players on these teams and allow new owners to draft, but he seemed to be against the idea. i actually think Tangerinen, BMH and Williemoes have really solid teams but it will be tough to find a taker for Winti.

i don't read any other parts of this site anymore. that gopherben guy always used to want to join. is he still around?

#231 biggentleben

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Posted 22 October 2013 - 02:17 PM

hey guys,

so Tim told me that the teams leaving are:

Williemoes
Winti
Billy Mays Hamilton

also, Mac has been MIA for months, so he may need to be replaced. he did this once before though and came back from the dead, so who knows.

i tried to encourage tim to pool the players on these teams and allow new owners to draft, but he seemed to be against the idea. i actually think Tangerinen, BMH and Williemoes have really solid teams but it will be tough to find a taker for Winti.

i don't read any other parts of this site anymore. that gopherben guy always used to want to join. is he still around?


I got a message about it, but I haven't had a chance to fire off an email quite yet. I'll get that done before the end of the evening.
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Posted 24 October 2013 - 08:57 PM

I got a message about it, but I haven't had a chance to fire off an email quite yet. I'll get that done before the end of the evening.


2 of the teams filled already just fyi

#233 biggentleben

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Posted 25 October 2013 - 09:16 AM

2 of the teams filled already just fyi


Yeah, I got the list of the available squads, but man are they crap. It'd be a 3-4 year rebuild minimum with either squad. $50 per season would mean $150-200 before I can even be competitive, let alone compete for a championship.
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#234 PseudoSABR

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Posted 25 October 2013 - 09:59 AM

Yeah, I got the list of the available squads, but man are they crap. It'd be a 3-4 year rebuild minimum with either squad. $50 per season would mean $150-200 before I can even be competitive, let alone compete for a championship.

Give us your monies!

#235 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 25 October 2013 - 01:10 PM

I will come back in.

#236 PseudoSABR

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Posted 06 December 2013 - 07:05 PM

Made a big trade today w Billy Buck, Chris Davis and a 2nd round pick for Mauer, Fister, and Schoop. Thoughts?

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Posted 06 December 2013 - 09:10 PM

feels like you completely raped him.

mauer will have C eligibility this year and will give you some serviceable 1B numbers for a long time. fister should be a nice mid-rotation guy, at worst, in the NL. schoop is a nice lottery ticket.

davis is nice to have but im not building a team around the guy. also, if we switch to otteneau, i bet the Ks hurt him even more.

#238 biggentleben

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Posted 06 December 2013 - 09:13 PM

I loved that deal for you. I've only made one small deal, but I've received some stuff that's at least close. Everyone wants to dump their 26th guy for one of my 3B, though, so far...that won't exactly make me want to jump forward on a deal. I'm looking for a big prospect package or solid outfielder/pitcher at the MLB level to move either.
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#239 PseudoSABR

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Posted 06 December 2013 - 09:36 PM

Glad you guys like it as much as I do. Sometimes I like deals so much that I start to feel stupid.

I think I got three guys at their lowest value, and they are mostly buy-low for a lot of the wrong reasons. I bet Mauer outproduces Davis (esp. in a Otteneau league, my hasty evaluation). That the Tigers dealt Fister so cheaply must have worked in my favor. Schoop is just gravy as second round minor league picks aren't ever worth as much as we think they might be.

That said, I'm heavy at in the MI, C, and even 1B. Make me some offers.

Hey, Ben, I didn't know you had actually joined! I think it's great.

Edited by PseudoSABR, 06 December 2013 - 09:46 PM.


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Posted 06 December 2013 - 10:01 PM

oh man i didn't realize ben was our ben either. that's awesome, welcome to the fun.

it looks like you aren't participating in the redraft, which was the right move imo. your team is much better than what it otherwise wouldve came out as after the draft.