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Morneau and Youklis

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#1 jorgenswest

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Posted 23 June 2012 - 06:39 PM

With all of the news of Kevin Youkilis and an impending trade, I have been wondering if the market for Youklis will be the same as the market for Morneau.Both have large contracts. Youkilis is 12 and 13 million. Morneau is 14/14.Both are performing below expectations.Both are health risks.Both can help at 1B.I think Youkilis has a little more value. His contract has a $1 million dollar buyout for 2013. He can play 3B. As a Twin fan, I may be a little more optimistic about Morneau performing better than Youklis over the remainder of the season. I am not sure if teams would agree. Based on sample size and looking at 2010, I think there bats are statistically similar in offering projection for the remainder of the season. Teams may see more value in Morneau's ability to hit RHP and just plan to bench him against LHP.If Youkilis is traded first, the number of teams willing to take a large contract under performing corner player will decrease by one. It will also indicate to the Twins the upper bar of Morneau's value. Clearly the Red Sox will have taken the best offer and any other offer would be of less value. In any case, the value should be close to what Minnesota can expect.As the rumors flow about Youkilis, I hope the Twins are working behind the scenes measuring the value they can expect for Morneau.

Edited by jorgenswest, 23 June 2012 - 09:54 PM.


#2 PMKI

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Posted 23 June 2012 - 06:44 PM

Any ideas on what the Red Sox are expecting back for Youk? I saw that they are willing to pay for a large amount of his salary.

#3 jorgenswest

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Posted 23 June 2012 - 09:11 PM

The Red Sox would be essentially buying prospects. The Twins can do the same. It doesn't change their budget. It just converts it from salary to Morneau to money for a prospect. Youkilis is easier to move to a team like Pittsburgh because of his $1 million dollar team option. The Pirates would not have to commit to him next year. On the other hand, if the option is not picked up they will be left with nothing after this year.

Edited by jorgenswest, 23 June 2012 - 09:54 PM.


#4 glunn

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Posted 24 June 2012 - 12:56 AM

The Red Sox would be essentially buying prospects. The Twins can do the same. It doesn't change their budget. It just converts it from salary to Morneau to money for a prospect.


It will be interesting to see how good a prospect the Red Sox can buy.

#5 jorgenswest

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Posted 24 June 2012 - 04:01 PM

Youkilis and 5.5 million buys Zach Stewart and Brent Lillibridge. The 5.5 million will cover a major portion of the money owed this year. The White Sox will also have a $1 million option on next year's contract (13 mil). The Red Sox are buying a prospect in Zach Stewart. Entering 2009, he was considered a top prospect. By 2012, he has struggled in the majors and is now with his 4th organization. Lillibridge is a utility player that can't play SS. Probably a AAAA player. I think this is the upper bar of Morneau's value. Morneau doesn't have a 2013 buy out so the Twins may need to send more money in a deal. If the Twins are fortunate enough to get an offer at this level, should they trade Morneau?

#6 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 24 June 2012 - 04:08 PM

I think this is the upper bar of Morneau's value. Morneau doesn't have a 2013 buy out so the Twins may need to send more money in a deal. If the Twins are fortunate enough to get an offer at this level, should they trade Morneau?


No. Morneau's value will be higher this offseason if he continues to play and his value is extremely low right now. The Twins have very little to gain by moving him, outside of dumping a little salary. On the other hand, Justin is popular with the Twins and the fans. That has value to the franchise. May as well let him play through at least this season and then consider the options.

#7 notoriousgod71

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Posted 24 June 2012 - 04:17 PM

Just keep Morneau if that's all you're going to get for him. He has a better chance of bouncing back and being his old self than Zach Stewart and Lillibridge have of being acceptable players. Even if Morneau only plays to this year's standards he's still worth more than that.

#8 jorgenswest

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Posted 24 June 2012 - 04:23 PM

I agree with keeping Morneau. I hope that this deal tempers our expectations about the Twins being able to get significant prospects in a trade for Morneau. I wonder if Willingham has much more value. He has a lot of money left on that contract.

#9 glunn

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Posted 24 June 2012 - 04:30 PM

This seems like a terrible deal from the perspective of the Red Sox. I wonder what the Dodgers offered.

#10 notoriousgod71

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Posted 24 June 2012 - 04:30 PM

I agree with keeping Morneau. I hope that this deal tempers our expectations about the Twins being able to get significant prospects in a trade for Morneau. I wonder if Willingham has much more value. He has a lot of money left on that contract.


I would think with 2.5 years left on his more than reasonable contract he'd be able to fetch a lot more.

"A lot more" probably doesn't mean top 50 prospects but maybe someone will get desperate.

#11 powrwrap

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Posted 24 June 2012 - 04:33 PM

Does anybody here think the Twins should get Youkilis? If so, who would you give up?
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#12 Thrylos

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Posted 24 June 2012 - 04:33 PM

Youkilis and 5.5 million buys Zach Stewart and Brent Lillibridge.

L

Looks like the Twins lost a golden opportunity to trade Blackburn and Nishioka for Youkilis...
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#13 greengoblinrulz

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Posted 24 June 2012 - 05:03 PM

entering the 2010 season, Stewart was rated their #1 prospect but didnt rank in the top 100. Other than contracts...I dont believe they are that similar any more---were at some point Youk's value over Justin is his dual positions on defense as his hitting has proven absolutely no beneit this year. His walk % is a career low & his K rate has jumped considerably & his ISO power is also a career low as a regular. Justin has retained his ISO power & is hitting righties better than his career average. Its the lefties holding him down statistically (60ABs cannot be the final judge). He has dropped slightly his BB% & K rate is up career wise....but not even close to Youks fall. If Justin gets the lefties straightened out, he's back 100%. Justin has far more value than Youk right now as he's a better current player, but can you collect on that value. If not, we keep him. We're not just gonna give him away.

#14 hawkiconk

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Posted 25 June 2012 - 01:39 PM

best move kenny williams ever made now watch youk ruin his back on the first play tonight

#15 James

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Posted 25 June 2012 - 01:49 PM

best move kenny williams ever made
now watch youk ruin his back on the first play tonight

I don't wish anyone to get hurt... but it is pretty likely with Youks track record this year.

Edited by James, 25 June 2012 - 01:52 PM.

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#16 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 25 June 2012 - 02:47 PM

I'm with Rocketpig here. Don't see the value in dumping Morneau right now as you won't get anything of value for him. The guy hasn't played significant baseball for nearly 2 years, so it's not surprising that he's going to struggle a bit... Looks like the value is there against righties, but not so much against lefties thus far. My guess is you let him play it out, as his value will only increase, and it isn't as if you lost anything if he got hurt again... We don't need prospects quite like what Boston got for Youk.. that said, I think Willingham is a bit more valuable... consider that his contract was only 23M for 3 seasons (as opposed to 28 for 2 of Morneau), and that he's outperforming it. Any team in need of a decent bat is going to pay quite a bit more to get Willingham. If the Twins dont' plan on contending next season, then they shoudl move him for some above average starting pitching that can come up with Sano, Rosario, Benson, Arcia, and Hicks.

#17 Riverbrian

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Posted 25 June 2012 - 07:45 PM

How good would've Youklis have been. If he didn't handicap himself with that ridiculous batting style.

#18 twinsnorth49

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Posted 26 June 2012 - 08:41 AM

Morneau is worth significantly more to the Twins right now than what they could get for him in the trade market. He's still only 31 years old and has unbelievably missed over a full season of baseball over the last 2 1/2 years. He's far too good a player to continue down the road he is on against left handed pitching and once he finds the right path he's going to scare the hell out of a lot of teams while at the same time becoming a far more valuable commodity. A lot of members have made much of this team lacking guts and a competitive edge, get rid of Morneau now and this team is emasculated.