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Michael Cederoth - 2015

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#1 2wins87

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Posted 10 April 2015 - 08:39 AM

Michael Cederoth - RHP

Born: Nov 25, 1992 (22 years old) in El Cajón, CA

Height: 6'6", Weight: 195 lbs.

Drafted: 3rd Round (79th overall) of the 2014 draft as a Junior out of San Diego State

Signing Bonus: $704,000

 

With a fastball that can hit 100 mph (and sits in the upper 90s), Cederoth garnered a lot of attention in the 2014 draft.  While projected by some as a first round talent, issues with control and mechanics (the much maligned "inverted-w"), and a consensus that he will end up as a reliever dropped him to the 3rd round, where the Twins were happy to add him to their growing legion of power arms.

 

While he excelled as a closer in his final year of college, the Twins have committed to try to bring him up as a starter, which was his role in his first two years of college.  After signing he moved into the rotation at Elizabethton where he was pretty successful.  He went 4-2 with a 3.55 ERA in 11 games, starting 10 of them.  He struck out 42 in 45 and 2/3 innings, and his walk rate was reasonably good at 3.5 per 9 innings. 

 

Cederoth will move up to A-ball this year where he will continue to work as a starter with the Kernels.  He may not move quickly through the system if he remains a starter but the payoff could be quite good if he makes it.  In addition to the previously noted fastball, Cederoth also has a slider which is unsurprisingly inconsistent, but flashes plus when it is on.  He also throws a curveball and a changeup which he will need to refine to be effective against lefties.  While the raw stuff to start is there, he will have to make a lot of adjustments.  His walk rate was acceptable in the Appalachian league, but he noted that the hitters there were less disciplined than college hitters allowing him to be "effectively wild" against them.  With his big frame, it'll be all about developing consistent mechanics.  Pre-draft, most scouts saw him as a reliever due to his mechanics and control issues.  However, he certainly has the stuff to be a #3 starter and possibly even a #2 if his command improves more than is generally expected.

 

 


#2 2wins87

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Posted 12 April 2015 - 08:37 PM

Cederoth had his first start for the Kernels today.

 

He made it through 4 innings giving up only 1 run but had to work out of a couple jams on the way.  He gave up 3 hits, walked 3, and also struck out 3.

 

The run came in the second when he gave up a line drive single to start the inning and walked the next batter.  The next batter reached on a bunt, loading the bases with nobody out.  However, he successfully limited the damage to one run by getting the next batters to ground out, strike out and fly out respectively.

 

Overall it was a pretty successful first outing, but he'll need to limit the walks in future appearances.


#3 2wins87

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Posted 19 April 2015 - 04:04 PM

Cederoth made his second start yesterday.  He started off a little shaky, walking the first batter of the game and giving up 2 runs on a trio of singles, but managed to induce a double play to end the inning.  He gave up another run in the second, which included a walk, HBP, and wild pitch, but he notched his first strikeout of the game to end the inning.

 

After those two inning he settled in, retiring 9 batters in a row at one point, but giving up one more run on a solo home run, which ended up being the difference in the game.

 

He ended up being tagged with the loss, giving up 4 runs on 6 hits and 2 walks in 6 innings, but also striking out 6 along the way.  He was much more economical than in his first start, making it through 6 inning on 78 pitches.

 

The overall line doesn't look great but he did a good job of settling down after the first two innings, pitching his strongest 4 innings of the season after that.

 


#4 2wins87

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Posted 26 April 2015 - 12:15 PM

Cederoth got tagged for his second loss yesterday, giving up 3 earned runs and one unearned in just 4 inning of work. The results leave something to be desired, but there were some encouraging aspects of his performance.

 

He managed to keep the ball around the plate enough that he didn't walk anybody, though he did have a passed ball and a wild pitch. Unfortunately, keeping the ball around the plate led to more hits, but 5 of the 8 hits given up were ground ball singles. The only well struck hit was a triple to center. He also recorded 3 strikeouts.

 

If he can maganage to limit walks and keep the ball on the ground as much as he did yesterday, the results should look much better in the future.

Edited by 2wins87, 26 April 2015 - 12:16 PM.


#5 2wins87

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Posted 04 May 2015 - 08:14 AM

Cederoth pitched his 4th game of the season on Saturday.  He was tough to hit, but also struggled with his control, and was hurt by some shaky defense behind him.  He put 5 men on base through walks, 3 of whom came around to score as a result of errors by his infielders.  While all three runs were scored as unearned, he did himself no favors by putting so many runners on base.  He did manage to strike out a season high 7 batters, but only made it through 4 innings.  Cederoth's biggest issues continues to be consistency and inefficiency which has led to short outings.  Later, I'll be posting a summary of his first month, digging into what stats are available. 

Edited by 2wins87, 04 May 2015 - 08:15 AM.


#6 2wins87

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Posted 04 May 2015 - 04:44 PM

We're through about a month of the season so it's a good time to take stock of his overall performance.I use the game logs at baseball reference to find batted ball types, here is Cederoth's game log.  Note that line drives and pop-ups are also counted in the fly ball column, and to find the FB% or HR/FB rate that you can view in Fangraph's batted ball stats for major leaguers you have to subtract out line drives.  Fangraphs has some good primers on batted ball types and some of the subtleties of how they relate to runs (part 2 of the further reading especially).

 

Anyway, starting with the basics:

  • 18.0 IP (4.5 IP per start)
  • 4.00 ERA (6.0 RA/9)
  • 9.5 K/9 (21.8%)
  • 5.0 BB/9 (11.4%)

The K-rate is very healthy, but the walk rate is much too high to be effective at higher levels, which has obviously affected his meager number of innings per start.

 

On batted balls:

  • 64% GB
  • 27% FB
  • 8.5% LD

The ground ball rate sticks out immediately.  I don't think you can directly translate low-minor league batted ball profiles to major league ones, but when hitters have made contact against him this year they have overwhelmingly hit it into the ground.  The line drive rate may tick up, but it is indicative of the fact that his stuff is tough for most A-hitters to square up.

 

It's still early, but I think it's safe to say that Cederoth is a ground ball pitcher at this point in his career (this can change).  The future is bright for a guy that can get ground balls and strikeouts.  However, ground balls do tend to go for hits (and errors) more often than fly balls, which makes it all the more important that he manages to get his walks under control.

 

Edited by 2wins87, 04 May 2015 - 04:45 PM.

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#7 SD Buhr

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Posted 05 May 2015 - 07:48 AM

You've pretty much captured the situation with Michael. I interviewed him over the weekend and talked to pitching coach Henry Bonilla, as well. Getting consistency with his balance point and mechanics is going to determine his success.

 

Look for a story posted within a week or so.

Writing about the Minnesota Twins and their minor league organization, with an emphasis on the Cedar Rapids Kernels, at Knuckleballsblog.com since 2010.

~You can get anything you want at Alice's Restaurant~


#8 2wins87

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Posted 09 May 2015 - 12:21 PM

Cederoth had a very nice start today, definitely his best overall outing of the year.  He went 6 innings, gave up 2 runs on 3 hits, 1 hr, and 3 walks while striking out 5.  The first run came on a solo homer and the second on a wild pitch following a walk and a double.

 

While the walks could come down a bit more, this is definitely the type of start we want to see from Cederoth.


#9 2wins87

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Posted 10 May 2015 - 06:18 PM

 

You've pretty much captured the situation with Michael. I interviewed him over the weekend and talked to pitching coach Henry Bonilla, as well. Getting consistency with his balance point and mechanics is going to determine his success.

 

Look for a story posted within a week or so.

 

Very nice story, I'll put the link here.


#10 Seth Stohs

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Posted 10 May 2015 - 11:10 PM

Steve's Story on Cederoth: Michael Cederoth Embraces Change


#11 SD Buhr

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Posted 11 May 2015 - 07:14 AM

 

Very nice story, I'll put the link here.

Thank you. Cederoth seems like a smart, personable guy. I enjoyed talking to him.

Writing about the Minnesota Twins and their minor league organization, with an emphasis on the Cedar Rapids Kernels, at Knuckleballsblog.com since 2010.

~You can get anything you want at Alice's Restaurant~


#12 2wins87

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Posted 01 June 2015 - 08:30 AM

After a tough start on May 15, in which he gave up 6 runs (5 earned) in just 3 innings, Cederoth has been trying to regain form pitching out of the bullpen, with his spot in the rotation going to fellow 2014 draftee Keaton Steele.

 

The move to the bullpen seems to have been a good one so far.  In 4 appearances, Cederoth has gone 7+1/3 innings, giving up 3 runs (1 earned), walking 2 and striking out 10.  If he maintains that K/BB ratio he could see himself moving through the system quickly as a reliever, or possibly get another shot as a starter.


#13 Shane Wahl

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Posted 29 July 2015 - 08:37 AM

Things are really not going well for Cederoth, and his stock is falling rapidly.

 

35.1 IP, 4.08 ERA, 37 K, 18 BB (9.4/4.6), 1.443 WHIP

 

He must move forward as a reliever only, where he has been good in a small sample this year.




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