Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.
Photo

Article: 2015 Projections and Rankings: Joe Mauer

joe mauer miguel cabrera jose abreu eric hosmer carlos santana
  • Please log in to reply
94 replies to this topic

#81 Paul Pleiss

Paul Pleiss

    Trevor May's UCL

  • Member
  • 1,082 posts

Posted 01 April 2015 - 06:01 PM

I think I like John's line the best, and for once I agree with the rankings for the gentlemen around the AL Central. 

__________________
@BaseballPirate: Mike Pelfrey is a Sasquatch. Drew Butera is the #BoatAnchor. I am Trevor May's torn UCL.


#82 GoGonzoJournal

GoGonzoJournal

    Junior Member

  • Member
  • 109 posts

Posted 01 April 2015 - 07:05 PM

Zips - .285/.371/.396, 25 2B, 7 HR, 65 R, 61 RBI in 128 games 

Steamer - .283/.366/.399, 27 2B, 8 HR, 58 R, 54 RBI in 118 games

 

Again, the TD team is very optimistic, but I do think Mauer will be better than these numbers strictly because I think he'll play more games. I've got a hunch he plays around 140. I think he's healthier and in better shape than he's ever been entering a season. The move from catcher is going to start paying off. Mark my words.

 

.300/.379/.400 with 34 2B, 10 HR, 70 R, and 67 RBI and improved defense at first base. I rank him third in the league.

Anthony Varriano

CEO, Foul Play-by-Play

Host, @****DickandBert


#83 LeatherAntenna

LeatherAntenna

    Cedar Rapids Kernels

  • Member
  • 126 posts

Posted 01 April 2015 - 08:32 PM

I seriously doubt the FO actually believed that what they saw Joe do in 2009 was the Joe they'd continue to see. And, because of that, I doubt it played too much in what his contract was. I imagine if he had just a normal year for him he still would have gotten paid right about what he did.
 
What some fans thought he'd do after seeing his 2009 is a different story. Outlying seasons are rarely what a player is going to continue to do. For me, he's had two disappointing seasons and both were because of injury (2011) or feeling the effects of injuries/concussion (2014).  And all players get hurt. he is not unique in that regard.  A lot of people point to games and/or played at catcher but part of that is on the manager too.  Part of that, at least in the last few years, was Morneau not being able to play and Mauer being the best option for 1B, or not having a great DH and moving Mauer to DH wasn't a detriment in DH production.  I mean, yes he's been hurt. no doubt, but he was also primarily a catcher and most years his games played were in line with what you'd expect from a catcher. I have zero doubt he could have played more games and more games at catcher too.

strongly disagree that what he did in 09 didn't play into his contract. He was younger, his body was still developing, and seeing 28 HR from a guy developing into a 235 pound 6 foot 5 inch (remember he was still growing taller just the year past) individual would have any team salivating.

#84 LeatherAntenna

LeatherAntenna

    Cedar Rapids Kernels

  • Member
  • 126 posts

Posted 01 April 2015 - 08:41 PM

So many here defend him and on the basis of being a pure hitter, I agree there is nobody that hits a prettier single up the middle then Joe Mauer. But for 23 million, 130 singles and 4 HRs? That price paid is hurting the Twins, they could use that money for other players, the stat line reinforces the argument to trade him even if you have to pay some of the salary to the acquiring team. Some day 23 million routinely gets paid for a Mauer to hit 130 singles and 4 HRs, or for Carew or Gywnn to do it but not today, and not for some years.

#85 jimmer

jimmer

    A former AF SNCO who values integrity.

  • Member
  • 10,212 posts

Posted 01 April 2015 - 08:46 PM

 

strongly disagree that what he did in 09 didn't play into his contract. He was younger, his body was still developing, and seeing 28 HR from a guy developing into a 235 pound 6 foot 5 inch (remember he was still growing taller just the year past) individual would have any team salivating.

We'll have to agree to disagree.  I don't think the FO actually believed one season way out of the norm for him in regards to HRs was what he'd continue to be.  At least I hope they would be smart enough not to think that.  

 

Getting his 3rd batting title wouldn't have been an outlier for him, he had one the year before and two times in the last three years going into 2009.  A third batting title (in a 4 year span), which is three more batting titles than any other AL catcher in history, he still gets that contract.  If not from the Twins, from someone else.

Edited by jimmer, 01 April 2015 - 08:58 PM.


#86 jimmer

jimmer

    A former AF SNCO who values integrity.

  • Member
  • 10,212 posts

Posted 01 April 2015 - 08:54 PM

 

So many here defend him and on the basis of being a pure hitter, I agree there is nobody that hits a prettier single up the middle then Joe Mauer. But for 23 million, 130 singles and 4 HRs? That price paid is hurting the Twins, they could use that money for other players, the stat line reinforces the argument to trade him even if you have to pay some of the salary to the acquiring team. Some day 23 million routinely gets paid for a Mauer to hit 130 singles and 4 HRs, or for Carew or Gywnn to do it but not today, and not for some years.

Did that price paid make the Twins continue to drop payroll?  No?  They continued to underspend anyway. They could have spent more, they chose not to.  Mauer's salary didn't stop them

 

The Twins almost doubled their worth this past offseason.  Did it really hurt them?  No.  In 2012 and 2013 combined he was worth a hair over 46M based on what 1 WAR would cost on the open market.  

 

The assumption that the Twins would have gone and spent his salary on some great player from outside the organization just doesn't float.  It's not in their nature and his salary hasn't stopped them from keeping anyone else in the organization who deserved what he got.  His salary has not hurt this team at all.  And by the time any of these supposed stud prospects we have hit the time in their career where they require big money, he'll be off the books.

 

And that's before we talk about what signing the hometown guy means outside the lines in PR and other value, like ticket sales etc.

 

His salary doesn't hurt this team a bit.  If he continues to play like 2014, which I doubt, that would be bad for sure.  But since he's only had two seasons like that and 2012 and 2013 were pretty darn good, i imagine he'll be much better than 2014 Joe.

 

 

Edited by jimmer, 01 April 2015 - 09:01 PM.

  • brvama likes this

#87 Dr. Evil

Dr. Evil

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 767 posts
  • LocationWisconsin

Posted 01 April 2015 - 08:58 PM

The thing that sucks he got hurt and had to change positions. How valuable would he be this year if he were still a catcher? Then all this stuff with pitch framing and handeling pitchers we been seeing posted would not even be an issue.

#88 LeatherAntenna

LeatherAntenna

    Cedar Rapids Kernels

  • Member
  • 126 posts

Posted 01 April 2015 - 09:01 PM

Like your logic but even if the Twins are underspending wouldn't they think even if we are cheap we can stay cheap and acquire some more power with Mauer's payroll curtailed or eliminated? Y

#89 LeatherAntenna

LeatherAntenna

    Cedar Rapids Kernels

  • Member
  • 126 posts

Posted 01 April 2015 - 09:14 PM

And not withstanding his salary, let's just say he is just gone tomorrow. Now you have first base open to potentially Vargas and Sano trading first and DH. I think those two would have more offensive potential, perhaps far more together then Mauer. Probably we would see 20 plus HR and perhaps a lot more along with the same amount of doubles Joe would hit,, less singles but more total RBIs. And the youngsters would develop.

#90 jimmer

jimmer

    A former AF SNCO who values integrity.

  • Member
  • 10,212 posts

Posted 01 April 2015 - 09:22 PM

 

And not withstanding his salary, let's just say he is just gone tomorrow. Now you have first base open to potentially Vargas and Sano trading first and DH. I think those two would have more offensive potential, perhaps far more together then Mauer. Probably we would see 20 plus HR and perhaps a lot more along with the same amount of doubles Joe would hit,, less singles but more total RBIs. And the youngsters would develop.

A normal Mauer is a run creator. But he doesn't do it in the ways everyone can easily point to like the HR.  But he creates them,  His OBP has value in the TEAM scoring runs. His ability to put bat on ball a lot and move runners over, is valuable. You would surely get more HR from the others, but you'd also lose like 60 points or so in OBP and 50 or so in BA and add Ks and so on. And lose on D too.

 

The HRs would look pretty, but there is more to creating runs than that. So, now, until these guys prove they can score a wRC+ in the 130s-150s, I still believe that a regular Mauer will help our offense more because we'll have more opps to score runs based on his skills.

 

Having said that, I think it'd be best for Mauer to waive his no trade and let the Twins move him if they actually want to.


#91 birdwatcher

birdwatcher

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 4,463 posts

Posted 02 April 2015 - 10:50 AM

 

Makes me feel old, since I've seen Carew and Oliva, so maybe it's just a point of reference.

 

 

Don't feel bad. I babysat them.

  • USAFChief and KGB like this

#92 tobi0040

tobi0040

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 5,693 posts

Posted 02 April 2015 - 01:02 PM

 

Don't feel bad. I babysat them.

 

Good stuff


#93 Hrbowski

Hrbowski

    Minnesota Twins

  • Member
  • 2,581 posts
  • LocationA small town city

Posted 02 April 2015 - 07:15 PM

.338/.398/.434 (.832) with 30 doubles and 5 home runs.

I hate Trevor Bauer.


#94 mikelink45

mikelink45

    Junior Member

  • Member
  • 3,222 posts

Posted 03 April 2015 - 07:57 AM

 

Three years?

 

His 2013 was very good until the concussion (which is out of his control), his 2012 was also very good. So not sure what you were hoping for or how you think he hadn't rebounded. The people telling you he'd rebound must not have known his mean either.

 

2014 was an off year for him for sure, but he was showing good signs in the 2nd half as he gets further from his concussion.

You make a good quote and I have to back off some, but the quotes I have read - many in this TD site have really been the continuing thread of frustration over power.  His peak year with 28 has turned everyone's head.  He is a modern incarnation of Wade Boggs who also frustrated with one big power year. 

 

You win this round (I am quite neutral about Mauer).  11 years 1540 hits - what is your odds he will get to 3000.  I say no chance, he would have to stay on the field more than his body will let him.

 

  • jimmer likes this

#95 jimmer

jimmer

    A former AF SNCO who values integrity.

  • Member
  • 10,212 posts

Posted 03 April 2015 - 08:14 AM

 

You make a good quote and I have to back off some, but the quotes I have read - many in this TD site have really been the continuing thread of frustration over power.  His peak year with 28 has turned everyone's head.  He is a modern incarnation of Wade Boggs who also frustrated with one big power year. 

 

You win this round (I am quite neutral about Mauer).  11 years 1540 hits - what is your odds he will get to 3000.  I say no chance, he would have to stay on the field more than his body will let him.

Hey there!

 

I don't think he reaches 3000. either. If he somehow could, he'd be the first guy who was primarily a catcher to get over 2637 hits.  There are only 7 guys in history who were primarily catchers to reach 2000. He could exceed the 2637 though.

 

And yes, I get the frustration over seeing him have that big year in power and then not ever do it again, but I also get players have years that are just so out of whack in some areas in relation to the rest of their careers that what I do is enjoy that year for what it was.  An extreme outlier. And that's what Mauer's HR power was that year.  Some of those doubles/outs went a bit further than normal in a climate neutral environment we no longer play in.

Edited by jimmer, 03 April 2015 - 08:16 AM.

  • mikelink45 likes this



Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: joe mauer, miguel cabrera, jose abreu, eric hosmer, carlos santana