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Article: Patience Probable with Prep Picks

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#1 Seth Stohs

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Posted 21 June 2012 - 03:30 AM

You can view the page at http://www.twinsdail...with-Prep-Picks

#2 old nurse

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Posted 21 June 2012 - 04:05 AM

Plenty have questioned the coaching ability of various staff members. As none on this list have washed out with the Twins and went on to success elsewhere one could say it is not the coaching.

#3 clutterheart

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Posted 21 June 2012 - 06:32 AM

Would be interesting to see this with HS pitchers. From memory i dont remember any HS pitchers make the club.

#4 old nurse

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Posted 21 June 2012 - 06:53 AM

Would be interesting to see this with HS pitchers. From memory i dont remember any HS pitchers make the club.


Latroy Hawkins and Brad Radke. Baseball reference has a page listing the primary starters and closers. Boof Bonser also came out of high school but not drafted by the Twins.

#5 jlovren

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Posted 21 June 2012 - 07:40 AM

I guess we could do the same thing with coaches in the minor league systems. I believe that while talent is 70% of the reason why prospects get to the bigs, I also believe that last 30% is the instruction and coaching they receive. Let's face it, we have had two legit big time bats on the club for a long time with Mauer and Morneau. You have to go all the way back to Kirby to name a consistent bat before them. Are the hitting coaches, swing coaches and basepath coaches doing their jobs? My answer is no. However, let me back that up by saying I have no stats, first hand knowledge or opinions from someone inside the game to support that. Although I would like to see Seth do a piece about that.

#6 PeanutsFromHeaven

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Posted 21 June 2012 - 07:53 AM

I really appreciate this analysis. Growing up in a Rookie League town (out in the Pioneer League circuit) I saw a lot of guys who came in highly touted and suddenly realized that a hot streak didn't equate to getting the hell away from all the cows and towards an actual metropolis. I forget that lesson sometimes as a fan, and it helps to think about the patience everyone in the organization needs to have with young prospects. As for the coaches, I've got no idea, but thinking about it from an amateur coach/professional teacher perspective--not every teacher's style matches with every student. So, maybe the Twins coaches are a mismatch with some of the current generation of prospects, or maybe what works for guys like Mauer/Morneau/Revere takes longer to work for guys like Plouffe/Morales (again--no idea what kinds of guys those would be...this is pure, irresponsible, conjecture)
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#7 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 21 June 2012 - 08:09 AM

Let's face it, we have had two legit big time bats on the club for a long time with Mauer and Morneau. You have to go all the way back to Kirby to name a consistent bat before them.


I'd consider both Hunter and Koskie to be "consistent bats". Both had above league average bats for over a half decade.

#8 Seth Stohs

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Posted 21 June 2012 - 08:11 AM

I'd consider both Hunter and Koskie to be "consistent bats". Both had above league average bats for over a half decade.


And I'd add Kubel and Cuddyer, and Span could get there soon.

#9 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 21 June 2012 - 08:13 AM

And I'd add Kubel and Cuddyer, and Span could get there soon.


Definitely... I was trying to point out guys that had their primes before Morneau or Mauer hit the bigs. All three of the guys you mentioned are pretty consistent bats.

#10 adjacent

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Posted 21 June 2012 - 08:46 AM

One aspect when drafting high schoolers that is not often mentioned is that they are teenagers. And like any other teenager sometimes they are not sure of what they really want to do. The article mention the case of Matt Moses, that he really did not care much. I don't know but that may be the case for many, like many other kids that start college, and after a year or two change major, sometimes several times. And it is OK, and it is nobody's fault. It is just the process of maturation. I am actually surprise to see that about 2/3 made it.

#11 DAM DC Twins Fans

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Posted 21 June 2012 - 08:49 AM

It seems to me that Mauer marked a turning point--Twins did fairly well with HS draft picks until Mauer (Torii, AJ, Cuddy) and pretty poor with the exception of Span (and maybe Revere) since. Is the scouting staff different, is the minor league coaching different?? I also think Buxton has to be on a fast track as number 2 pick. It wll be disappointing if he is not up by Sept. 2016.

#12 Seth Stohs

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Posted 21 June 2012 - 09:17 AM

One aspect when drafting high schoolers that is not often mentioned is that they are teenagers. And like any other teenager sometimes they are not sure of what they really want to do. The article mention the case of Matt Moses, that he really did not care much. I don't know but that may be the case for many, like many other kids that start college, and after a year or two change major, sometimes several times. And it is OK, and it is nobody's fault. It is just the process of maturation. I am actually surprise to see that about 2/3 made it.


You make a great point... I know I changed my major several times! Doesn't make them a bad person by any means.

As for the 2/3 made it, I do need to re-emphasize that the same size was just 22 players drafted by the Twins among the Top 100 picks over a 15 year period from 1993 through 2007. I too was impressed that it was that high.

#13 Seth Stohs

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Posted 21 June 2012 - 09:19 AM

It seems to me that Mauer marked a turning point--Twins did fairly well with HS draft picks until Mauer (Torii, AJ, Cuddy) and pretty poor with the exception of Span (and maybe Revere) since. Is the scouting staff different, is the minor league coaching different?? I also think Buxton has to be on a fast track as number 2 pick. It wll be disappointing if he is not up by Sept. 2016.


That's why I did want to include the draft position in my chart. That said, I would mention that from all reports, Mauer was a much more polished hitter as a 17/18 year old than what Buxton is. Of course, he's yet to spend any time in a game yet, so it's far too early for any guarantees, but I think the September 2016 timeline seems fair.

#14 greengoblinrulz

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Posted 21 June 2012 - 09:30 AM

My problem with MN is they NEVER (sans Mauer) have recalled a player before their service time dictates it ( 5 yrs for HS). They are not quite as horrible for a college player, but close. Talent evaluation has changed over the past decade and that's why 19yr olds like Bryce Harper & Mike Trout are recalled cause they deserve it, not due to their age. The 2 players Buxton is compared to (BJ/Justin Upton) both made their MLB debut at age 19 also. Miguel Cabrera was 20 & didnt dominate minor league ball when he came up , but their is NO shot the Twins would do the same with Miguel Sano. Basically, I believe, MN tries to develop their players for their minor league system....not their major league system.

#15 jorgenswest

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Posted 21 June 2012 - 11:06 AM

Cabrera was a 20 year old in AA with a slash line of .365/.429/.609 after 303 plate appearances. It was his 4th season in the minors. If Buxton performs similarly in 2015 at AA, I am certain the Twins will call him up for the end of the season. It will be up to Buxton and Sano to force their way into the majors like the players above. Sano started A-Ball at 18 this year, he can be in the majors to finish 2013. He will need to show significantly improved contact rate in and then dominate AA as Cabrera did. Based on his performance this year, I think it is more likely we will see him in 2014. Buxton isn't any different. It will be up to him. The Twins will not hold him back if he goes out and dominates.

#16 Seth Stohs

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Posted 21 June 2012 - 11:24 AM

[quote name='greengoblinrulz']My problem with MN is they NEVER (sans Mauer) have recalled a player before their service time dictates it ( 5 yrs for HS). They are not quite as horrible for a college player, but close.[/QUOTE]

I guess I can't think of a situation where they should have in recent years.

[QUOTE]Talent evaluation has changed over the past decade and that's why 19yr olds like Bryce Harper & Mike Trout are recalled cause they deserve it, not due to their age. The 2 players Buxton is compared to (BJ/Justin Upton) both made their MLB debut at age 19 also. Miguel Cabrera was 20 & didnt dominate minor league ball when he came up , but their is NO shot the Twins would do the same with Miguel Sano.[/QUOTE]

I'd say let the kid play and prove that he should be moved up. Sano isn't being kept in Beloit because the Twins are slow to promote prospects. He's staying in Beloit because he needs to improve. Buxton doesn't even have a minor league at bat yet. Let's let him get a few of those before we promote him. Comparisons for Buxton are the Uptons, but what if he becomes Mike Cameron instead (And that would be decent)... Let's let these guys play a little bit, mature a little bit and see how they move up. Pushing prospects is one thing. Pushing them too fast rarely works.

[QUOTE]Basically, I believe, MN tries to develop their players for their minor league system....not their major league system.[/QUOTE]

I would 100%, wholeheartedly disagree with that statement.

#17 old nurse

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Posted 21 June 2012 - 12:59 PM

A comment was made to coaching being 30% of a player's development. As prospect rise through the ranks so do coaches. Brunansky got his start in the GCL, up to New Britain the Rochester. Jeff Smith and Jake Mauer have each been promoted. My questions would be wouldn't you want your best coaches at teaching fundamentals left in the lower levels if they have a proven aptitude there? Given the lack of development of starting pitching, shouldn't they be looking for some new pitching coaches?

#18 Seth Stohs

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Posted 21 June 2012 - 01:41 PM

I think that's why Gary Lucas has been in Beloit for awhile now. That's probably why Jim Dwyer and Steve Mintz stay in Ft. Myers. The E-Twins coaching staff is terrific. With Brunansky, I think he experienced a little success at AA last year and hoped it would translate to AAA... It hasn't.

#19 108 Double Stitches

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Posted 21 June 2012 - 07:06 PM

Interesting study. 68% seems like it would be difficult to maintain, but like a lot of good baseball studies, it gives numbers to ideas that we suspected anyway. One thought that came to me after reading this is that when speed is the primary tool of young players, they seem to get their opportunity a little earlier (and perhaps before they are as ready as the other prospects). Maybe just a secondary factor (maybe no factor at all), but iit appear to me that if speed is a big part of your game, the Twins are getting you your opportunity earlier that otherwise justified. Revere would fall into that category. Of the 3 fast trackers, he clearly doesn't feel like Mauer or Morneau, who were not only in the majors fast, but before too long picking up MVP support. Even though he doesn't figure into draft analysis, Carlos Gomez also seemed to be in the majors because his speed was there, but the rest of his game was behind the others early in their MLB careers. Speed is usually the first tool to depreciate, which would not only justify earlier first looks, but less concern over length of the contracts for this type of player. I maybe way off base on this, but just saying the study was provoking some other thoughts. The other extreme (not to beat this idea too far into the dirt) seems to apply to Morales and Plouffe. Speed is really of no significance to their career. So if the talent arrives later, its easiier to wait on them.

#20 MWLFan

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Posted 22 June 2012 - 07:37 AM

Basically, I believe, MN tries to develop their players for their minor league system....not their major league system.


As a person who goes to a lot of Minor League games I disagree with this whole heartedly. I missed seeing Morneau in Quad Cities and Manship in Beloit by a week because they moved up before the season ended. I see what is happening with Madison Boer who was the opening day starter in Beloit and has struggled in FM and wonder why he didn't stay down for half a season. I read a lot of Jim Mandelero in Rochester and I think Red Wing fans would laugh, maybe cry, at that statement.

The Twins final end game is to get these guys to be productive Major Leaguers to the best of their abilities. Down the food chain we need to accept that we are stepping stones and as Mongo from Blazing Saddles would, "Just pawns in game of life." Now how good the Twins are at reaching that end game is debatable, but no one is developing Sano or Buxton to top out at Rochester. Also that some of these guys don't make it is not always the fault of the organization or the coaches or the front office, some personal responsibilty needs to be put on the individual here. These kids, and the are kids, have been given talents and opportunities that us less gifted and more robust shall we say dream of. It is a test of not only physical skills but will and attitude to make through E-Town, Beloit, New Britian and Rochester. We only see the product on the field, but the rest of life is what can trip the players up big time. Some like Josh Hamilton and Sean Burroughs survive the demons to play another day in the sun, most have their moments and move on to some other path knowing they gave it a shot and it didn't work out, some leave angry and confused about why they aren't Strasburg or Trout and blame the coaches and organization, and some drop off the radar and lose themselves like Brien Taylor. Unlike the other sports in or culture baseball is life in many ways.

#21 Seth Stohs

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Posted 22 June 2012 - 08:18 AM

Even though he doesn't figure into draft analysis, Carlos Gomez also seemed to be in the majors because his speed was there, but the rest of his game was behind the others early in their MLB careers.


Carlos Gomez may be a perfect example of why rushing players is not always for the best, and I would argue most likely for the worst. Gomez came to the Twins having spent about 1/2 of the previous season with the Mets. Not because he was ready, but because of injury and the Mets philosophy at that time of pushing certain prospects (see Mulvey, Kevin and Guerra, Deolis as well). I imagine if Gomez would have been in the Twins system, he would have just been getting to AA, developing appropriately and instead of having spent four years struggling in the big leagues to this point, maybe he would have come up two years later and been fully developed and turned into what people thought he would.

#22 Riverbrian

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Posted 22 June 2012 - 12:07 PM

As a person who goes to a lot of Minor League games I disagree with this whole heartedly. I missed seeing Morneau in Quad Cities and Manship in Beloit by a week because they moved up before the season ended. I see what is happening with Madison Boer who was the opening day starter in Beloit and has struggled in FM and wonder why he didn't stay down for half a season. I read a lot of Jim Mandelero in Rochester and I think Red Wing fans would laugh, maybe cry, at that statement.

The Twins final end game is to get these guys to be productive Major Leaguers to the best of their abilities. Down the food chain we need to accept that we are stepping stones and as Mongo from Blazing Saddles would, "Just pawns in game of life." Now how good the Twins are at reaching that end game is debatable, but no one is developing Sano or Buxton to top out at Rochester. Also that some of these guys don't make it is not always the fault of the organization or the coaches or the front office, some personal responsibilty needs to be put on the individual here. These kids, and the are kids, have been given talents and opportunities that us less gifted and more robust shall we say dream of. It is a test of not only physical skills but will and attitude to make through E-Town, Beloit, New Britian and Rochester. We only see the product on the field, but the rest of life is what can trip the players up big time. Some like Josh Hamilton and Sean Burroughs survive the demons to play another day in the sun, most have their moments and move on to some other path knowing they gave it a shot and it didn't work out, some leave angry and confused about why they aren't Strasburg or Trout and blame the coaches and organization, and some drop off the radar and lose themselves like Brien Taylor. Unlike the other sports in or culture baseball is life in many ways.


Extroidanary post... These kids are kids... Its up to them... It's not like the Twins coaches are telling them anything different than the Rays coaches are. Yeah some organizational creeds can vary but the prospect has to learn to hit his pitch and pitch his pitch and its the same on every club. Every coach should be able to spot a hitch or bad pitching mechanics and point it out and throw BP to try and correct but in the end it comes down to the player working on correcting it. Buying in... Kids come out of HS with bad stuff and get away with it. They hit the pros and they can't get away with it anymore. They don't know why but they will continue to do what they do until the light bulb goes on... It takes elbow grease and the coaches are working at it and talking about it. Now the player has to do it and some just don't get the connection.

The game is real simple that way.

They have to get used to the changing game speed and grow. Every once in awhile a Trout or Harper comes along but they are not the norm. This is why High round picks fail. They don't adapt or grow.

#23 Riverbrian

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Posted 22 June 2012 - 12:11 PM

Carlos Gomez may be a perfect example of why rushing players is not always for the best, and I would argue most likely for the worst. Gomez came to the Twins having spent about 1/2 of the previous season with the Mets. Not because he was ready, but because of injury and the Mets philosophy at that time of pushing certain prospects (see Mulvey, Kevin and Guerra, Deolis as well). I imagine if Gomez would have been in the Twins system, he would have just been getting to AA, developing appropriately and instead of having spent four years struggling in the big leagues to this point, maybe he would have come up two years later and been fully developed and turned into what people thought he would.


A perfect example and I still want Gomez back. What a complete failure by the Twins Organization. Gomez is freakishly talented and we wasted him and Santana at the same time. He was in the bigs way too soon but they felt they had to show something for Johan.

#24 PMKI

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Posted 22 June 2012 - 12:22 PM

Didn't want to start a new thread for this but I heard somewhere that when we were trading Johan we could have got Matt Kemp. I'm just wondering if this is true? I realize that Kemp may not have turned into what he is now but I'm just curious.

#25 Paul

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Posted 22 June 2012 - 12:27 PM

MWLFan, Seth and Riverbrian, I think this is a first. I can't remember reading 4 posts in a row on this site that had this level of intelligence and insightfulness rather than emotion and incitefulness. Thank you.

#26 Seth Stohs

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Posted 22 June 2012 - 12:30 PM

MWLFan, Seth and Riverbrian,

I think this is a first. I can't remember reading 4 posts in a row on this site that had this level of intelligence and insightfulness rather than emotion and incitefulness.

Thank you.


I can consider that a compliment... thanks!!

#27 Paul

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Posted 22 June 2012 - 12:36 PM

I can consider that a compliment... thanks!!


You're welcome and deserving!

#28 Riverbrian

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Posted 22 June 2012 - 03:37 PM

MWLFan, Seth and Riverbrian,

I think this is a first. I can't remember reading 4 posts in a row on this site that had this level of intelligence and insightfulness rather than emotion and incitefulness.

Thank you.


The record is 5 in a row... It was Seth and Twinsnorth exchanging back and forth on something.

Speaking of North... Where has he been? We need our Canada influence... The site isn't the same without it.

#29 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 25 June 2012 - 09:20 AM

Didn't want to start a new thread for this but I heard somewhere that when we were trading Johan we could have got Matt Kemp. I'm just wondering if this is true? I realize that Kemp may not have turned into what he is now but I'm just curious.


Unfortunately no... there was a lot of Kemp/Kershaw/LaRoche talk for Santana as the Dodgers were natural partners, but Santana and his NTC dictated where he would go, and it was New York or Boston.

#30 jtrinaldi

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Posted 25 June 2012 - 09:53 AM

I hate it how slow the Twins are with their upper Echelon MILB/young signee prep talent. Here are a few examples of similar upside to Buxton over the last few years. These were all top 5 picks, Buxton will likely reach A ball to start 2014 if the Twins continue to keep players for 2 years in E-Town/GCL (Kepler Goodrum) and likely Boyd and Harrison Manny Machado Drafted in 2010 made A Ball debut in 2011 Tim Beckham Drafted in 2008 made A ball debut in 2009 Mike Moustakas Drafted in 2007 made A ball debut in 2008 Josh Vitters Drafted in 2007 made A ball debut in 2009 (played 4 games in A ball in 2008)
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