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FanGraphs' Top 200 (8 Twins appear)

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#1 PseudoSABR

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Posted 17 February 2015 - 02:29 PM

Kiley McDaniel's released FanGraphs' Top 200.  Here's his primer, explaining his approach which does differ from other outlet's.  McDaniel's can be conservative, while he likes ceiling, players that have questions about reaching that ceiling are discounted in his ranking pretty severely (e.g. Alex Meyer).

 

As jimmer notes in the other fangraphs thread seven Twins made the list, and six in the top 73.

Buxton - 2

Sano - 15

Berrios - 24

Meyer - 71

Gordon -72

Stewart - 73

Polanco - 108

Thorpe* - 142-200 (honorable mention)

 

*/hattip jimmer

Edited by PseudoSABR, 17 February 2015 - 03:13 PM.


#2 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 17 February 2015 - 02:32 PM

top 200... really surprised no Thorpe, Burdi, Rosario, or Gonsalves. I'd think all of them would be in the 100-200 range on any list.
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#3 jimmer

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Posted 17 February 2015 - 02:35 PM

top 200... really surprised no Thorpe, Burdi, Rosario, or Gonsalves. I'd think all of them would be in the 100-200 range on any list.

Thorpe was there.  We have eight guys on a top 200 list and 6 that score 55 or higher (the most of any team).

Edited by jimmer, 17 February 2015 - 02:56 PM.

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#4 nytwinsfan

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Posted 17 February 2015 - 02:58 PM

Dave Cameron, using Kiley's list as a starting point, ranks the Twins the second best farm system after the Cubs, who are way ahead of everyone.

 

http://www.fangraphs...e-farm-systems/


#5 jimmer

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Posted 17 February 2015 - 02:59 PM

Kiley McDaniel's released FanGraphs' Top 200.  Here's his primer, explaining his approach which does differ from other outlet's.  McDaniel's can be conservative, while he likes ceiling, players that have questions about reaching that ceiling are discounted in his ranking pretty severely (e.g. Alex Meyer).

 

As jimmer notes in the other fangraphs thread seven Twins made the list, and six in the top 73.

Buxton - 2

Sano - 15

Berrios - 24

Meyer - 71

Gordon -72

Stewart - 73

Polanco - 108

Thorpe was in there too. Eight Twins in total.


#6 tobi0040

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Posted 17 February 2015 - 03:01 PM

Burdi is probably the guy that surprises me the most.I don't see many question marks about him being a top closer in the game.....and I would think a top closer would be a top 200 prospect. If MLB had a draft of existing players, I would suspect a guy like Kimbrel being taken in the first 200 picks. 

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#7 jimmer

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Posted 17 February 2015 - 03:02 PM

Dave Cameron, using Kiley's list as a starting point, ranks the Twins the second best farm system after the Cubs, who are way ahead of everyone.

 

http://www.fangraphs...e-farm-systems/

It's important to note Dave's rankings are based on a certain way of looking at it.  Kiley will release his overall Farm System rankings soon.

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#8 jimmer

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Posted 17 February 2015 - 03:03 PM

Burdi is probably the guy that surprises me the most.I don't see many question marks about him being a top closer in the game.....and I would think a top closer would be a top 200 prospect.   

Kiley sees Meyer as that which is why he's ranked where he is.

Edited by jimmer, 17 February 2015 - 03:03 PM.


#9 tobi0040

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Posted 17 February 2015 - 03:18 PM

Kiley sees Meyer as that which is why he's ranked where he is.

 

I guess that doesn't make much sense to me then.If they are both closers, why is Meyer 71 and Burdi not in the top 200? If anything Burdi will be a better closer as he has already excelled in that role and they have similar stuff there....Meyer probably throws the same 100 with a 90 mph slider.

 

The other thing that surprises me is how unanomous the Cubs are #1.Nobody is pointing out that they are highly weighted towards position players.Are they going to sign a Jon Lester every off-season?CJ Edwards is their top pitcher, #50 or so overall on most boards and their 5th best prospect. He only pitched 48 innings last year due to a shoulder issue.   And Shwarber is a guy that was supposed to have an MLB ready bat and they sent him to low, then high A after college.He put up a .950 to 1.000 OPS but shouldn't he?And looking at the guy he doesn't project as a good corner OF and he can't DH there. 

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#10 jimmer

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Posted 17 February 2015 - 03:18 PM

I guess that doesn't make much sense to me then.If they are both closers, why is Meyer 71 and Burdi not in the top 200? If anything Burdi will be a better closer as he has already excelled in that role and they have similar stuff there....Meyer probably throws the same 100 with a 90 mph slider.

 

The other thing that surprises me is how unanomous the Cubs are #1.Nobody is pointing out that they are highly weighted towards position players.Are they going to sign a Jon Lester every off-season?CJ Edwards is their top pitcher, #50 or so overall on most boards and their 5th best prospect. He only pitched 48 innings last year due to a shoulder issue.   And Shwarber is a guy that was supposed to have an MLB ready bat and they sent him to low, then high A after college.He put up a .950 to 1.000 OPS but shouldn't he?And looking at the guy he doesn't project as a good corner OF and he can't DH there. 

I have no idea, might be a question to ask him. Kiley does a weekly chat at Fangraphs. And I have no issues with the Cubs being the clear #1.

Edited by jimmer, 17 February 2015 - 03:21 PM.


#11 tobi0040

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Posted 17 February 2015 - 03:29 PM

I have no idea, might be a question to ask him. Kiley does a weekly chat at Fangraphs. And I have no issues with the Cubs being the clear #1.

 

I have no issues with people thinking they should be number one. Just surprised that 8-10 people have them #1 and nobody to my knowledged has mentioned that their top end guys are all position players.

 

As you model that out moving forward....I may lean towards the Twins have a sustainable team in the future as we have some guys that could be front of the rotation guys under control for six years.They have to sign five Jon Lesters.


#12 nytwinsfan

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Posted 17 February 2015 - 03:37 PM

I guess that doesn't make much sense to me then.If they are both closers, why is Meyer 71 and Burdi not in the top 200? If anything Burdi will be a better closer as he has already excelled in that role and they have similar stuff there....Meyer probably throws the same 100 with a 90 mph slider.

 

Very good and fair question.


#13 nytwinsfan

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Posted 17 February 2015 - 03:39 PM

I have no issues with people thinking they should be number one. Just surprised that 8-10 people have them #1 and nobody to my knowledged has mentioned that their top end guys are all position players.

 

As you model that out moving forward....I may lean towards the Twins have a sustainable team in the future as we have some guys that could be front of the rotation guys under control for six years.They have to sign five Jon Lesters.

 

Fangraphs seems to generally be of the view that flipping prospects of one position for those of another is not all that difficult. I'm not as convinced that there aren't a decent amount of transaction costs involved.


#14 tobi0040

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Posted 17 February 2015 - 03:43 PM

Fangraphs seems to generally be of the view that flipping prospects of one position for those of another is not all that difficult. I'm not as convinced that there aren't a decent amount of transaction costs involved.

 

I think Terry has made the comment before that teams are not very willing to give up good young pitchers, think AAA or first year guys.Prior to the Span/Meyer trade he called out the Wheeler trade as saying you need to find A ball talent like the Mets did in the Beltran trade.Then we moved Span for Meyer. 

 

I buy it and don't think, all else equal that you will see a Bryant for say Tajuan Walker or Gerritt Cole.That is a trade that does not happen often because most teams value the pitcher more.


#15 USAFChief

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Posted 17 February 2015 - 03:48 PM

Burdi is probably the guy that surprises me the most. I don't see many question marks about him being a top closer in the game.....and I would think a top closer would be a top 200 prospect. If MLB had a draft of existing players, I would suspect a guy like Kimbrel being taken in the first 200 picks.

I think there might be a few question marks about a guy with 20 professional innings, none above A ball, being a sure thing top big league closer. Just sayin....
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#16 jimmer

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Posted 17 February 2015 - 03:58 PM

I have no issues with people thinking they should be number one. Just surprised that 8-10 people have them #1 and nobody to my knowledged has mentioned that their top end guys are all position players.

 

As you model that out moving forward....I may lean towards the Twins have a sustainable team in the future as we have some guys that could be front of the rotation guys under control for six years.They have to sign five Jon Lesters.

I don't think any team has to sign five Jon Lesters.  That's a huge exaggeration.  Starlin Castro, Baez and others might be able to use down the line to get what they need. I think their front office has the team going in the right direction without a doubt and they'll get the pitching they need. Having that strong a line of position players puts them in great position for a long time if even only half turn out to be quality big leaguers.

 

And I highly doubt the Cubs would even want to trade Bryant for Walker or Cole.  I wouldn't.

Edited by jimmer, 17 February 2015 - 04:00 PM.

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#17 jimmer

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Posted 17 February 2015 - 03:59 PM

I think there might be a few question marks about a guy with 20 professional innings, none above A ball, being a sure thing top big league closer. Just sayin....

exactly.  Equating a guy with so little proven professional time to Kimbrel is a big stretch.


#18 tobi0040

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Posted 17 February 2015 - 04:00 PM

I think there might be a few question marks about a guy with 20 professional innings, none above A ball, being a sure thing top big league closer. Just sayin....

 

In a comparison among minor league players, I would argue that Burdi has fewer questions about achieving his ceiling than most, by a long shot.He has been a closer in the NCAA tourney and excelled.He throws 100 with a 90 mph slider. 

 

I think he has a higher chance of becoming a top closer than Buxton does at becoming a top CF.Now a top CF is way, way more important....but supposedly Kiley weighted these based on guys with more question marks. 

I am not arguing Burdi should be higher than Buxton using this methodology, but I don't see the gap as between 2 and not in the top 200.

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#19 tobi0040

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Posted 17 February 2015 - 04:03 PM

I don't think any team has to sign five Jon Lesters.  That's a huge exaggeration.  Starlin Castro, Baez and others might be able to use down the line to get what they need. I think their front office has the team going in the right direction without a doubt and they'll get the pitching they need. Having that strong a line of position players puts them in great position for a long time if even only half turn out to be quality big leaguers.

 

And I highly doubt the Cubs would even want to trade Bryant for Walker or Cole.  I wouldn't.

 

It was an exagerration. No doubt.But apart from a good year here or there, who in that rotation projects as a top three or four arm on a contending team outside of Lester? 

 

I also don't think they will get even money for position players for starter trades.I think they are the Cubs and everyone is getting ahead of themselves.....thats all.Just like they are going to win 82 games next year.


#20 jimmer

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Posted 17 February 2015 - 04:03 PM

It was an exagerration. No doubt.But apart from a good year here or there, who in that rotation projects as a top three or four arm on a contending team outside of Lester? 

 

I also don't think they will get even money for position players for starter trades.I think they are the Cubs and everyone is getting ahead of themselves.....thats all.Just like they are going to win 82 games next year.

yeah, 82 games is a little light

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