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Article: Gleeman & the Geek, Ep 177: Jacque Jones and Meeting the In-Laws

aaron gleeman jacque jones joe mauer
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#1 John Bonnes

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Posted 13 January 2015 - 12:31 AM

Aaron and John meet at Mason's and ramble about Jacque Jones career and his upcoming appearance at the Twins Daily Winter Meltdown, Joe Mauer's contract, crying babies, a mailbag and meeting the in-laws. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click the Play button below.

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#2 Willihammer

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Posted 13 January 2015 - 11:20 AM

I've asked before about TF's 23 foot RF wall and its impact on UZR scores. If I understand you correctly, any balls that bang off it will (unfairly) penalize the RF's UZR score the same way Jones' UZR was hurt by the baggie. Something to consider when talking about the quality of the Twins RF defense.

Edited by Willihammer, 13 January 2015 - 11:20 AM.

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Well, there's that.

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#3 jimmer

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Posted 13 January 2015 - 11:30 AM

I've asked before about TF's 23 foot RF wall and its impact on UZR scores. If I understand you correctly, any balls that bang off it will (unfairly) penalize the RF's UZR score the same way Jones' UZR was hurt by the baggie. Something to consider when talking about the quality of the Twins RF defense.

So you're saying that after acquiring the worst defensive RF in baseball over the last two years, we should expect his numbers to be even worse because of TF's RF wall? :-)

Edited by jimmer, 13 January 2015 - 11:32 AM.


#4 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 13 January 2015 - 11:30 AM

Really? UZR doesn't account for walls? That's absurd. Plenty of stadiums have 10+ ft walls which make a catch impossible.


#5 jimmer

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Posted 13 January 2015 - 11:35 AM

Really? UZR doesn't account for walls? That's absurd. Plenty of stadiums have 10+ ft walls which make a catch impossible.

From Fangraphs: The data also tells us if a ball hits off an outfield wall (on the fly) and whether, in the judgment of the “stringer,” it was catchable or not. If not, then the play is ignored. If a “wall ball” was catchable, it is treated like any other batted ball at that distance, with no regard for whether it hit the wall or not.

Edited by jimmer, 13 January 2015 - 11:36 AM.

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#6 Willihammer

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Posted 13 January 2015 - 11:47 AM

Interesting. Any theories as to why UZR says Jones was an above average LF and CF but a below average RF?
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Well, there's that.

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#7 jimmer

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Posted 13 January 2015 - 11:50 AM

Unless I'm reading it wrong, seems to me that ball hit high on the wall wouldn't negatively affect the RF UZR, since it's not catchable, UZR would just not account for the play at all, like it never happened. Like walks don't affect a BA.

Edited by jimmer, 13 January 2015 - 11:54 AM.


#8 jimmer

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Posted 13 January 2015 - 11:54 AM

Interesting. Any theories as to why UZR says Jones was an above average LF and CF but a below average RF?

Without digging too deep, perhaps because it's a comparable stat and, most of the time the worst OF are in LF (even moreso when he was playing) so his competition for comparison was worse?  Nowadays Alex Gordon is a nice exception, as was Trout when he played there.

 

Plus, if I remember correctly, his arm wasn't great, at least not what you would expect from a RF.  I often wonder how losing the ball in the Metrodome ceiling effected his LF numbers. That was often comical :-)

Edited by jimmer, 13 January 2015 - 11:55 AM.


#9 Parker Hageman

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Posted 13 January 2015 - 05:28 PM

I think UZR went through a same revamping process as BIS's Plus/Minus did around 2007. Per John Dewan of BIS:

 

In 2007, we introduced the “Manny Adjustment.” In this adjustment we eliminate any ball that hits an outfield wall that is out of reach of the outfielder (i.e. too high on the wall). Basically, we’re treating a ball hitting a wall out of reach in the same way we treat a home run. They can’t be caught so they are left out of the universe of plays to consider.

 

As for non-wall park peculiarities, we only compare balls that are in play in one park to other parks where the ball was also in play. In other words, a hard flyball hit 405 feet to Vector 183 in center field is only compared to other hard flyballs that stayed in play when hit 405 feet to Vector 183. The system doesn’t know that this particular ball was a home run in other ballparks; it only knows that when that particular ball was in play, it was caught X% of the time. This is a de facto park effect—because the plus/minus zones are so precise, it handles strange wall and park configurations pretty well.

 

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#10 Seth Stohs

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Posted 13 January 2015 - 06:01 PM

Interesting discussion on what Mauer would get if he was a free agent. We discussed it here in November. I said 3/$45... I think Aaron threw out 4/$44. I don't know if John gave any sort of number, but said he was surprised at Aaron's 4/$44. Since our forum in November, Butler and Markakis signed, giving more data points. I feel good about my 3/$45 number, though I think 4/$56-60 might be likely too.




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