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A's Trade 3B Donaldson to Toronto

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#21 jokin

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Posted 29 November 2014 - 11:39 AM

Nolin's K rate has declined as he advanced with most people giving him a fourth starter ceiling, and Graveman is likely a reliever.

 

In fact, the package here makes me think they know something about Donaldson the rest of us don't.

 

Sean Nolin K-rates for his primary team and level-

 

2010-A- 10.24

2011- A  9.39

2012-A+9.38

2013-AA 10,00

2014-AAA 7.63

 

I don't see the trend in declining K-rate you speak of.

 

His minor league stat line, on the surface anyway, appears would work quite well in the spaciousColosseum.

Edited by jokin, 01 December 2014 - 12:24 AM.

 

Joyous, fact-based and tireless Twins fan for 40+ years, who unfortunately has been characterized as-

 

"forcing Twins fans to endure more bitter, baseless, and tiresome cheap shots about the Twins FO."


#22 twinsfan34

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Posted 29 November 2014 - 01:07 PM

I believe he sold Donaldson, at least 1-2 years too quick.

For the 2015 Season:
2015 Payroll will be sans Cespedes and Jim Johnson as they are off the books at $10M a pop in 2014 ($20M total). Donaldson's Arb1 wouldn't have been that spendy (~$4.5M-$8M).

 

For the 2016 Season:

Donald's Arb2 (~$8M-$12M) would be comparable to Coco Crisp and Kazmir who are playing 2015 at $10M-$13M, thus coming off the books is $23M in those two players.

The puzzling parts when you're trying to 'off salary'.
Brandon Moss cost $4.1M in 2014 and for 2015 will be a Arb3 player...he'll cost ($7M-$11M) and provide 1/3 the WAR (2-2.6) as Donaldson (7.4-8).

Add to the fact, it seems every year Beane just throws away $10M at someone.

 

Recent ones include:

2014 - Jim Johnson (RP) - $10M

2013 - Chris Young (OF) - $8.7M

2010 - Ben Sheets (P) - $10M

 

So who's Beane's candidate for 2015? I don't believe he's signed that $10M waste just yet, however, let's go with what we have. Let Billy Butler be presented as exhibit A.

Butler will cost $6.7M, $11.7M, & $11.7M each of the next 3 years. Butler is at best, a 2-3 WAR player with no Def to offer in sight. He had a NEGATIVE total WAR in 2014. He'll be 29 next year and his affinity for Dunkin Donuts isn't getting any weaker. Donaldson is 7-9 WAR for the same cost for the next two seasons. Year 3, he'll cost more than Butler's $11.7M. But my argument was 2 years, not 3. I would look to trade Donaldson, in year 2 at the All-Star break (if not competing) or Winter 2016.

 

Here's two articles making some guesses on salaries for the A's Arb eligible players:

http://www.athletics...ayroll-estimate

http://www.mlbtrader...s-for-2015.html

 

 

Other References:

http://www.baseballp...land-athletics/

http://www.baseball-.../mossbr01.shtml

http://www.baseball-...donaljo02.shtml

http://www.baseball-...butlebi03.shtml

Edited by twinsfan34, 29 November 2014 - 01:08 PM.


#23 Thrylos

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Posted 29 November 2014 - 01:17 PM

Great trade for the A's. Do not look now, but Lowrie is just 24 and his OPS+ been around 100 for a while and the As are not loosing much there (.247/.301/.421 vs .255/.342/.456 for Donaldson in 2014; both had worse 2014s than 2013s).Both of the pitchers are very good prospects with mid-rotation or end of pen stuff, and the 18 year old shortstop might be the key to that trade..311/.384/.481 26 SB and 6 HRs as an 18 year old in short season A Ball(73 games) is nothing to frown about.

 

If the Twins get anything similar to this for Dozier, they should do it in a heartbeat. 

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#24 Mike Sixel

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Posted 29 November 2014 - 02:33 PM

Let me know when the As lose 90 games under Beane. ....

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#25 TheLeviathan

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Posted 29 November 2014 - 02:52 PM

Let me know when the As lose 90 games under Beane. ....


Billy Beane is a great and resourceful GM, but that doesn't make him infallible. He got two pitchers considered backend starters, an oft injured former top prospect who hasn't produced and a SS in A ball with promise.

That just isn't much of a haul for a guy making very little money with a ton of control left. I think it's hilarious people are suggesting Lawrie's cheaper Arby prices are a win for Beane. They're only cheaper because Donaldson is miles better as a player! Of course you pay less for a worse player, that isn't a win.
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#26 Mike Sixel

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Posted 29 November 2014 - 02:53 PM

I was commenting on those that think he isnt good in general, not this trade. They don't bottom out, and yet still rise up again. Big contrast with many other teams.

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#27 jokin

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Posted 29 November 2014 - 03:42 PM

I was commenting on those that think he isnt good in general, not this trade. They don't bottom out, and yet still rise up again. Big contrast with many other teams.

 

Were you thinking of any team in particular, here?

 

Joyous, fact-based and tireless Twins fan for 40+ years, who unfortunately has been characterized as-

 

"forcing Twins fans to endure more bitter, baseless, and tiresome cheap shots about the Twins FO."


#28 Mike Sixel

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Posted 29 November 2014 - 03:58 PM

Were you thinking of any team in particular, here?

nope.

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#29 big dog

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Posted 29 November 2014 - 04:22 PM

Let me know when the As lose 90 games under Beane. ....


Let me know when he wins more playoff series than one. That's my goal.
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#30 Mike Sixel

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Posted 29 November 2014 - 04:27 PM

Gotta get to the playoffs to win any series......I assume you dislike TR, then? Since the Twins don't win series, and don't even get to the playoffs?

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#31 notoriousgod71

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Posted 29 November 2014 - 04:43 PM

I think anyone wanting to see this as a good move by Beane are forgetting how frequently these kinds of moves by him don't work out.  The Tim Hudson trade was a disaster, the Dan Haren netted only one thing of value and that was flipped for Matt Holliday who was flipped for a poor package.

 

He doesn't have nearly as sterling a record trading as he does drafting and signing.  Lawrie has struggled to be league average, Nolin's K rate has declined as he advanced with most people giving him a fourth starter ceiling, and Graveman is likely a reliever.

 

They gave that up for an elite defender with a 126 and 142 OPS+ the last two seasons who has four years of team control left.  Sorry, but as a guy with a lot of respect for what Billy Beane has done, this stinks of another Tim Hudson deal.  In fact, the package here makes me think they know something about Donaldson the rest of us don't.

 

His drafting is not that amazing either. He's the guy that thought Joe Blanton and Jeremy Guthrie were the best pitchers in the draft when in the first round alone you have Greinke, Hamels, Cain, and Kazmir.


#32 Mike Sixel

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Posted 29 November 2014 - 04:55 PM

And yet, they never lose 90 games, and retool quickly. Why do people feel the need to belittle him? He's what TR wants to be, a GM that never really loses, retools quickly, and keeps his team competitive most every year. 

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#33 jokin

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Posted 29 November 2014 - 04:59 PM

And yet, they never lose 90 games, and retool quickly. Why do people feel the need to belittle him? He's what TR wants to be, a GM that never really loses, retools quickly, and keeps his team competitive most every year. 

 

....In a division with 3 opposing teams that are renowned for their rather spendthrifty ways in much better ballparks.

 

Joyous, fact-based and tireless Twins fan for 40+ years, who unfortunately has been characterized as-

 

"forcing Twins fans to endure more bitter, baseless, and tiresome cheap shots about the Twins FO."


#34 Mike Sixel

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Posted 29 November 2014 - 05:03 PM

On one page, people are arguing to trade Plouffe while his value is high, becuase he's not that good and not young....and on one page people are arguing that Beane made a bad trade for three prospects and a MLB starter, for a guy that is a year older than Plouffe (I think).

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#35 TheLeviathan

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Posted 29 November 2014 - 05:28 PM

On one page, people are arguing to trade Plouffe while his value is high, becuase he's not that good and not young....and on one page people are arguing that Beane made a bad trade for three prospects and a MLB starter, for a guy that is a year older than Plouffe (I think).


Did you just compare Josh Donaldson and Trevor Plouffe with no caveats? It's that kind of stuff that makes discussions about Beane so polarizing.

#36 Mike Sixel

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Posted 29 November 2014 - 05:33 PM

Where did I compare them at all? I compared the belief that Plouffe and Dozier should be traded RIGHT NOW because they are at peak value, and Donaldson should not be traded. No place did I compare the players. 

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#37 TheLeviathan

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Posted 29 November 2014 - 05:35 PM

Where did I compare them at all? I compared the belief that Plouffe and Dozier should be traded RIGHT NOW because they are at peak value, and Donaldson should not be traded. No place did I compare the players.


You clearly link Plouffe to this particular haul and equivocated the two scenarios as the same. I'm bordering on speechless.

The point is that they didn't get peak value given the timing and value of Donaldson.

#38 Mike Sixel

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Posted 29 November 2014 - 05:49 PM

No, I linked people saying they should not have traded him, but the Twins should trade Plouffe. No where did I comment on the haul received, nor did I compare the players. It was a comparison of situations. Could have typed "Dozier" instead of "Plouffe" for all I care.....

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#39 twinsfan34

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Posted 29 November 2014 - 06:38 PM

I thought of Plouffe in this situation. He's very similar to Lawrie. Plouffe is perhaps even a little better, at least from a production standpoint on OF.He's not near as good as Donaldson though. I would have taken Donaldson as is for Plouffe + 3 similar prospects as the A's got in our system.

 

http://www.fangraphs...247&position=3B

http://www.fangraphs...462&position=3B

http://www.baseball-...plouftr01.shtml

http://www.baseball-...lawribr01.shtml


#40 twinsfan34

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Posted 29 November 2014 - 06:42 PM

His drafting is not that amazing either. He's the guy that thought Joe Blanton and Jeremy Guthrie were the best pitchers in the draft when in the first round alone you have Greinke, Hamels, Cain, and Kazmir.

 

Good points as well. He also gets away with taking pitchers (#3, #4 starters) who wouldn't have done as well in other ballparks, but play 81 games in Oakland vs say, 81 games in the homer dome.

 

Twins are a top 5 most successful team of the past 30 years if you consider it in terms of playoffs appearances and World Series. Yankees, Red Sox, Giants, Cardinals, Twins, & surprisingly, the Marlins. The A's are in the next tier with one WS.

Edited by twinsfan34, 29 November 2014 - 06:42 PM.