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#121 nicksaviking

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Posted 18 November 2014 - 04:00 PM

That's the problem. They should be willing to move anyone after losing for the 4th season in a row. I would have no problem packaging Santana, Vargas, or Gibson with soon to be ready prospects to get a true impact player. You are right though that they won't which disappoints me.

 

Atlanta probably has little interest in a DH like Vargas.Santana and Gibson would have some value, but combined they probably couldn't get Miller, which means you'd probably have to use those two and a Berrios or better to get Heyword.For one year. In which they are expected to be bad with or without Heyword.

 

Santana is young plays the two most premium positions though.I would bet his value leaguewide may actually be more than we expect.


#122 kab21

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Posted 18 November 2014 - 07:46 PM

That's the problem. They should be willing to move anyone after losing for the 4th season in a row. I would have no problem packaging Santana, Vargas, or Gibson with soon to be ready prospects to get a true impact player. You are right though that they won't which disappoints me.

 

You should be disappointed not because they won't do this but because nobody will trade a true impact player for what the Twins have unless they are putting Sano and Buxton on the table after injury plagued seasons.

Is 2016 2017 2018 the year that a good pitching prospect is truly blocked by 5 good pitchers in the starting rotation? 

Offseason (noun) - a time to propose trades assuming opposing GM's can't do the same basic analysis


#123 jorgenswest

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Posted 18 November 2014 - 08:16 PM

Atlanta probably has little interest in a DH like Vargas.Santana and Gibson would have some value, but combined they probably couldn't get Miller, which means you'd probably have to use those two and a Berrios or better to get Heyword.For one year. In which they are expected to be bad with or without Heyword.
 
Santana is young plays the two most premium positions though.I would bet his value leaguewide may actually be more than we expect.


Fangraphs certainly values Gibson differently. They had him at 2.5 WAR last year. Miller was 0.2. Gibson's steamer projections give him better relative value than Miller in 2015 with 1.5 more WAR.

It doesn't even seem plausible until you consider the following. Gibson is pitching in the AL. He had the league bottom defense behind him. Target Field has become a hitter's park according to park factor. Last year it was number 2 behind Coors Field. It has been in the top half the last four years and was 8 in 2013 yet people keep calling it a pitcher's park.

I wouldn't package Gibson and Santana for Miller. The Twins would turn Miller into the next Vance Worley.

#124 tobi0040

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Posted 18 November 2014 - 08:17 PM

You should be disappointed not because they won't do this but because nobody will trade a true impact player for what the Twins have unless they are putting Sano and Buxton on the table after injury plagued seasons.

 

To be fair though, many teams have no shot at getting an impact player with what they have in the minors.We have at least two guys that could net a nice return.


#125 kab21

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Posted 19 November 2014 - 08:09 PM

Fangraphs certainly values Gibson differently. They had him at 2.5 WAR last year. Miller was 0.2. Gibson's steamer projections give him better relative value than Miller in 2015 with 1.5 more WAR.

It doesn't even seem plausible until you consider the following. Gibson is pitching in the AL. He had the league bottom defense behind him. Target Field has become a hitter's park according to park factor. Last year it was number 2 behind Coors Field. It has been in the top half the last four years and was 8 in 2013 yet people keep calling it a pitcher's park.

I wouldn't package Gibson and Santana for Miller. The Twins would turn Miller into the next Vance Worley.

Gibson is 27 and gets 5+K/9.

Miller is 24 and has a 7.5 career K/9.The key to his future is figuring out why he struggled in 2014.His upside is way higher than Gibson and that's why his trade value is considerably higher.

Is 2016 2017 2018 the year that a good pitching prospect is truly blocked by 5 good pitchers in the starting rotation? 

Offseason (noun) - a time to propose trades assuming opposing GM's can't do the same basic analysis


#126 whosafraidofluigirussolo

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Posted 29 November 2014 - 01:15 PM

I read this post the other day quoting Shane Victorino saying he expects to be starting in the OF for the Red Sox even after the Ramirez and Sandoval signings.

 

The Sox are in a position where most likely they'll either move Hanley to the outfield or look to trade Bogaerts for a pitcher. Assuming it's the first option, they'll have to trade an outfielder. Victorino has some health issues (his back, I think), and I'm not sure what the timeline for his recovery is. That should be a concern, but if healthy he seems to make all kinds of sense for the Twins - good defender in the outfield corners, right-handed bat that can play at the top of the lineup.


#127 Lakeside

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Posted 29 November 2014 - 01:47 PM

I read this post the other day quoting Shane Victorino saying he expects to be starting in the OF for the Red Sox even after the Ramirez and Sandoval signings.

 

The Sox are in a position where most likely they'll either move Hanley to the outfield or look to trade Bogaerts for a pitcher. Assuming it's the first option, they'll have to trade an outfielder. Victorino has some health issues (his back, I think), and I'm not sure what the timeline for his recovery is. That should be a concern, but if healthy he seems to make all kinds of sense for the Twins - good defender in the outfield corners, right-handed bat that can play at the top of the lineup.

I think we would have a better chance of getting Allan Craig.I think he is a "bounce-back" candidate in LF and would be the RH bat that evidently the Twins are looking for ala Torii Hunter.Craig is under contract and could be moved if/when Rosario and Buxton are ready.He is a lot better player than he showed last season and I'm assuming it was an injury that kept him from higher performance.


#128 nicksaviking

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Posted 29 November 2014 - 06:12 PM

So it seems as if the A's are having a fire sale, and everyone around here is crazy for defensive upgrades. Anyone interested in Josh Reddick? He looks to be serviceable defensively. I'm not sure his price, but he was basically a platoon player last year which can't help his value. Offensively, he probably is best as a platoon player, but he's the type of hitter that would seem to benefit from leaving the park with the most foul territory for one with among the smallest.

#129 Mike Sixel

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Posted 29 November 2014 - 06:49 PM

The As are not having a fire sale, not for sure. They also signed Butler.....maybe there are more moves to come, but I don't know if they are in fire sale mode.....plus, the Twins would have to give up prospects......

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#130 jokin

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Posted 29 November 2014 - 09:00 PM

The As are not having a fire sale, not for sure. They also signed Butler.....maybe there are more moves to come, but I don't know if they are in fire sale mode.....plus, the Twins would have to give up prospects......

 

I would bet that there are many moves to come.And don't forget, the A's were never mentioned during the Cespedes sweepstakes- which culminated in a mid-February signing in 2012- that international avenue for an upgrade is still available to them- in either Japan or Cuba, or both, as well.

Edited by jokin, 29 November 2014 - 09:00 PM.

 

Joyous, fact-based and tireless Twins fan for 40+ years, who unfortunately has been characterized as-

 

"forcing Twins fans to endure more bitter, baseless, and tiresome cheap shots about the Twins FO."


#131 tobi0040

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Posted 29 November 2014 - 09:13 PM

I would bet that there are many moves to come.And don't forget, the A's were never mentioned during the Cespedes sweepstakes- which culminated in a mid-February signing in 2012- that international avenue for an upgrade is still available to them- in either Japan or Cuba, or both, as well.

 

I bet they move Samardzija


#132 kab21

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Posted 30 November 2014 - 07:21 AM

Allen Craig is interesting as a bounce back.Not much defensively and injury prone but he could flat out hit until last year.

 

Matt Joyce could be a solid one year answer in LF and the Rays are looking for salary relief.

Is 2016 2017 2018 the year that a good pitching prospect is truly blocked by 5 good pitchers in the starting rotation? 

Offseason (noun) - a time to propose trades assuming opposing GM's can't do the same basic analysis


#133 tobi0040

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Posted 30 November 2014 - 11:32 AM

Matt Joyce could be a solid one year answer in LF and the Rays are looking for salary relief.

 

The Rays platooned Joyce to a .750 OPS a year ago.His career OPS against righties is .750.Would be a good platoon with Hicks.Guessing his defense is OK at least, certainly an upgrade over Willingham or Torii Hunter.


#134 TheLeviathan

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Posted 30 November 2014 - 11:41 AM

Allen Craig is interesting as a bounce back.Not much defensively and injury prone but he could flat out hit until last year.

 

Matt Joyce could be a solid one year answer in LF and the Rays are looking for salary relief.

 

Where would you play Craig?  I thought about him too I just didn't like the idea of him and Arcia in the corners.


#135 Kirby_waved_at_me

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Posted 01 December 2014 - 07:16 AM

I think Craig is a 1B that was playing out of position in StL and Boston... if the Red Sox trade him, it'll probably be to a team looking to fill a need at 1B.


#136 kab21

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Posted 03 December 2014 - 07:50 AM

Where would you play Craig?  I thought about him too I just didn't like the idea of him and Arcia in the corners.

 

If he returns to his old self (.850 OPS) then I will deal with the defense until Mauer gets injured.Doesn't matter much now with Hunter signing.

Is 2016 2017 2018 the year that a good pitching prospect is truly blocked by 5 good pitchers in the starting rotation? 

Offseason (noun) - a time to propose trades assuming opposing GM's can't do the same basic analysis


#137 SwainZag

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Posted 05 December 2014 - 12:52 PM

Gibson is 27 and gets 5+K/9.

Miller is 24 and has a 7.5 career K/9.The key to his future is figuring out why he struggled in 2014.His upside is way higher than Gibson and that's why his trade value is considerably higher.

 

I think Gibson gets a bad rap around here.  2014 was technically his 1st full season after throwing on 51 innings in 2013.  He improved his BB/9 and K/9 and he very much keeps the ball in the ballpark.  His FIP last year was a respectable 3.80.  He did struggle down the stretch, which could still be an impact of TJ surgery in 2012.  The guy will never be a huge K guy, and sometimes I get the feeling around here that if you don't strike out a ton of guys you cannot be a good starting pitching option, which just isn't true.  2015 will be an interesting season for him.

Edited by SwainZag, 05 December 2014 - 12:54 PM.

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#138 tobi0040

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Posted 05 December 2014 - 01:04 PM

I think Gibson gets a bad rap around here.  2014 was technically his 1st full season after throwing on 51 innings in 2013.  He improved his BB/9 and K/9 and he very much keeps the ball in the ballpark.  His FIP last year was a respectable 3.80.  He did struggle down the stretch, which could still be an impact of TJ surgery in 2012.  The guy will never be a huge K guy, and sometimes I get the feeling around here that if you don't strike out a ton of guys you cannot be a good starting pitching option, which just isn't true.  2015 will be an interesting season for him.

 

The other thing to note with him is that his K's fell off completely between the minors and pro's.I think he will be a better than 4.5-5 K per 9 guy.He won't be a 7.5 or 8 k per 9 guy.....but if he can be north of 6 with a good ground ball rate he can be an effective pitcher for us.


#139 kab21

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Posted 05 December 2014 - 10:01 PM

I think Gibson gets a bad rap around here.  2014 was technically his 1st full season after throwing on 51 innings in 2013.  He improved his BB/9 and K/9 and he very much keeps the ball in the ballpark.  His FIP last year was a respectable 3.80.  He did struggle down the stretch, which could still be an impact of TJ surgery in 2012.  The guy will never be a huge K guy, and sometimes I get the feeling around here that if you don't strike out a ton of guys you cannot be a good starting pitching option, which just isn't true.  2015 will be an interesting season for him.

Or perhaps a realistic rap when it comes to comparing him to a guy (and trade value) like Shelby Miller.At no point did I say that gibson wasn't going to be a solid pitcher for the Twins.

Is 2016 2017 2018 the year that a good pitching prospect is truly blocked by 5 good pitchers in the starting rotation? 

Offseason (noun) - a time to propose trades assuming opposing GM's can't do the same basic analysis