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Free agents comp picks

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#1 jwb1226

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Posted 09 June 2012 - 08:56 AM

Which potential free agents will we get comp picks for if we don't trade them? Liriano, pavano, capps doumit. I hope we resign Doumit.

#2 jorgenswest

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Posted 09 June 2012 - 09:17 AM

With the new CBA, a qualifying offer must be made and declined shortly after the world series in order to receive compensation. The offer must be at least the average of the top 125 salaries - expected to be between 12 and 13 million. So the answer is all of them as long as the Twins offer 12+ million and they decline.

#3 Rosterman

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Posted 09 June 2012 - 09:25 AM

Which is why the Twins are better off trading any of the potential free agents (Capps isn't, he has an option year). The Twins won't go to arbitration with Pavano or Liriano. They could with Doumit...he will be looking for a multi-year, I imagine.

#4 righty8383

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Posted 09 June 2012 - 09:41 AM

In other words, none of them. And, arbitration means nothing this year in regards to comp picks...as I understand it. Its gonna be a while before the Twins can think about getting any sort of comp pick. Maybe Morneau would be worthy of such an offer (top 125 average) after the 2013 season depending on injuries and production. Otherwise, we won't have anyone for a while that would be worth anything near the amount required to get compensation. I hope this made sense...

#5 Thrylos

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Posted 09 June 2012 - 10:30 AM

I think the first player who might fit that category for the Twins would probably be Sano, unless the CBA changes by then, or they hit lightning in a bottle with a SP.
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#6 Blake

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Posted 09 June 2012 - 10:53 AM

Okay, question for everyone: Liriano pitches "lights out" for the rest of the season with a sub 3.00 ERA. (this number does not include Liriano's ERA from his first few starts) Does it then become worth while for the Twins to go to arbitration with Liriano?

#7 righty8383

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Posted 09 June 2012 - 11:29 AM

Okay, question for everyone: Liriano pitches "lights out" for the rest of the season with a sub 3.00 ERA. (this number does not include Liriano's ERA from his first few starts) Does it then become worth while for the Twins to go to arbitration with Liriano?


arbitration...maybe. However, the topic is about comp picks and arbitration no longer has any effect on draft compensation. The Twins will have to offer Liriano around $12.5 million AND Liriano would have to turn it down in order to get compensation for him. He would have to find his 2006 form for the rest of the season in order for the Twins to even consider such an offer.

#8 jorgenswest

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Posted 09 June 2012 - 02:12 PM

There will be very few compensation picks overall which will bring up the value of the Twins 2nd pick. It may also decrease the trade value for some players. Previously, a team trading for a potential free agent would know they would get picks if they lost him at the end of the season. Now those picks would not be in play for all but the top players. Once the market goes down for those players, it may drive the market down for the others.

#9 old nurse

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Posted 09 June 2012 - 10:17 PM

There will be very few compensation picks overall which will bring up the value of the Twins 2nd pick.

It may also decrease the trade value for some players. Previously, a team trading for a potential free agent would know they would get picks if they lost him at the end of the season. Now those picks would not be in play for all but the top players. Once the market goes down for those players, it may drive the market down for the others.


When faced with losing a player for nothing at the end of the year a team may try to trade the player. The more players available for a trade, the less the price. No compensation picks means the teams losing players have less high draft picks than before. On average from 2007-2011 there were 23 comp. picks between the first and second rounds. The end result is the teams that cannot afford the almost superstar player will either have to trade them for less or get nothing if they lose him. The teams losing players will have less of a chance of finding the next almost superstar because they have less high picks. As you know, being a high MLB pick only gets you in the door. There are very few sure things in the draft.

#10 James Richter

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Posted 09 June 2012 - 11:55 PM

There will be very few compensation picks overall which will bring up the value of the Twins 2nd pick.

It may also decrease the trade value for some players. Previously, a team trading for a potential free agent would know they would get picks if they lost him at the end of the season. Now those picks would not be in play for all but the top players. Once the market goes down for those players, it may drive the market down for the others.

Those picks won't be in play for even the top players. According to the new CBA: "Only players who have been with their clubs for the entire season will be subject to compensation." Once an impending FA gets traded, he can be offered arbitration by his new club, but they get nothing if he declines. So only superstars and players under team control for multiple seasons are going to bring big returns. Everybody else is only going to get the price of a 2-month (or less) rental, which is usually nothing special.

If Liriano's last two starts should prove to be the standard for the remainder of the season, I would plan on offering him arbitration at the compensation level. $12.5M for 1 year is by far the least the Twins would have to invest to get an ace-caliber pitcher. If Liriano thinks he can get more on the open market, collect the picks. I'd measure any offers at the trade deadline against those potential rewards. If he forgets how to throw strikes again in 2013, it's a bad deal, but then again, how good are the Twins going to be next year anyway? The potential rewards would be worth the gamble. (But he's got to have another 10 awesome starts before anybody has to worry about it.)