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2012 Trade Deadline/2013

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#1 sotafan

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Posted 08 June 2012 - 12:49 PM

Ok, there are a lot of different things people are throwing out there in regards to contending or rebuilding. There are pieces the Twins need to hang on to and there are piece that need the boot in the worst way. The 3-4 players that should be actively shopped at the deadline are the players that will not be here next year, Pavano, Capps, Doumit and Liriano. Just trade them for whatever you can get!!! We can save the money from their contracts the rest of 2012. As for trading Span, Morneau, and Willingham, C’mon MAN!!! They are the heart of this team and the main reason we are returning to respectable baseball. If you can get a haul for them then by all means, thanks for playing. The main question that really needs to be analyzed and discussed is “what are the options for 2013 via free agency?” There are people saying we are one good arm away, or two away from contention. Well we are at least two away IMO but check it. In 2013, the payroll that is committed is roughly 65-70 mil. Now, if Ryan has a similar budget as this year, there is about 30mil to spend in FA. How can that money be used? TWO Starting pitchers!!!! Here is who is available in the 2013 free agency class. Cole Hamels Zach Greinke Anibal Sanchez Shaun Marcum Erik Bedard Edwin Jackson Colby Lewis Carlos Zambrano The top 3 will be getting nice 5-7 year deals and they should because they are #1 pitchers. So pick one of the three—I like Greinke and he doesn’t like large market teams so we could make a run at him. I also like Sanchez for the #2 starter. Greinke will likely be in the 16-20mil range for 5 years. Sanchez would be in the 8-12 mil range for maybe 3 years. Hamels is a pipe dream, he will be way to expensive. The other five all can be that #2 starter and will likely be the in 5-12mil on 3 years deals. Let’s play this out. Greinke for 6 years at 18.5mil per Sanchez for 4 years at 11.5mil per Total is 30mil With those two starters at the top of the rotation, and Diamond/Walters/Blackburn/Hendirks/Gibson fighting for the other three spots, would you consider the Twins a playoff contender and a good chance at getting pass the first round?? You would have to keep Willingham, Span and Morneau. Will the FO be that bold and spend some money is the other question.

#2 SweetOne69

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Posted 08 June 2012 - 01:18 PM

First, the Twins will never sign a pitcher to a 5+ year deal. The injury risk is too great and they can't afford that much dead money. Second, they will sign at most 1 FA starting pitcher with Diamond, Walters, Blackburn, Hedricks, Gibson and possibly Baker competing for the other 4 spots.

#3 jokin

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Posted 08 June 2012 - 01:27 PM

Good analysis and good job getting to the root of the problem about the Twins and their lack of dynamic thinkng, they need to really step up to the plate with the clock ticking on the careers of the core veteran's remaining productive time. I've posted on this before. Greinke with his SAD diagnosis and Midwest ties and previous experiences would be the ideal anchor, but they would have to reduce the number or the length of contract to make it work for them. Zambrano's personality and NL background make that one a non-starter for the Twins. Getting Greinke and Sanchez is probably a risky payroll bridge too far for the Pohlads. I've advocated for Bedard in the past and I think he would be a good fit at the #2 spot in the rotation and you might be able to get him for a Willingham-like contract.

#4 Shane Wahl

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Posted 08 June 2012 - 01:32 PM

Ryan Dempster, 2 years and $25 million. Option on the third year.

#5 neky0801

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Posted 08 June 2012 - 01:35 PM

They will likely have other needs as well that they will have to spend on. Probably some veteran bullpen arm, maybe someone to replace Doumit if we trade him and they arent cool with Butera/Herrman. I mean its hard to speculate right now, but what Im saying is that they will have other needs when FA hits. So they wont be throwing 30 million at just two pitchers. Chances are they stick to what they have been doing recently and sign a veteran, a Marquis type. I would love them to go out and sign a solid arm, but I really dont see it happening.

#6 sotafan

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Posted 08 June 2012 - 01:43 PM

Many of those #2 starters could be had for 2 yrs plus an option. If you could get Greinke on maybe 3yrs and 2yrs with options with the 4th being mutual and the 5th being team he could take it. I do like Bedard as well if he stay healthy and he looks solid over the last 9 months or so. Zambrano is a reach, threw him in there. Ryan needs to move away from that "veteran" pitcher. When has it worked in the past for him?? Never!!!! We need a #1 and #2 not more of the same #5 crap!!

#7 jokin

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Posted 08 June 2012 - 01:52 PM

Many of those #2 starters could be had for 2 yrs plus an option. If you could get Greinke on maybe 3yrs and 2yrs with options with the 4th being mutual and the 5th being team he could take it. I do like Bedard as well if he stay healthy and he looks solid over the last 9 months or so. Zambrano is a reach, threw him in there. Ryan needs to move away from that "veteran" pitcher. When has it worked in the past for him?? Never!!!! We need a #1 and #2 not more of the same #5 crap!!


Amen. Any PR statements that the club is competing, not rebuilding or happy with the status quo, is belied by their repeated over-reach for SPs from the scrap heap.

#8 cr9617

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Posted 08 June 2012 - 02:18 PM

I think you are underestimating the market for Greinke. The most we coud hope for in terms of a FA signing is a medium sized splash, so maybe one of those guys at the bottom of your list. Anyways, signing one or two average SP's isn't the solution long term. If teams are willing to overpay for some of our veterans, you have to listen...

#9 chuchadoro

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Posted 08 June 2012 - 02:20 PM

sotafan, I agree with your guys to actively shop, with Doumit being one possible exception. Souhan suggested trying to lock him in to a club-friendly extension first and only shop him if he won't sign. Also, I like Span but he might be at peak value right now. If they can package him to get a good, young SP (pipe dream?), I'm all for it. IMO if the Twins sign a FA SP in 2013, it will be someone like El Duque or Todd Stottlemyre, not Greinke or Sanchez.

#10 chuchadoro

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Posted 08 June 2012 - 02:21 PM

...or Mel Stottlemyre.

#11 sotafan

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Posted 08 June 2012 - 02:57 PM

I won't mind hanging on to Doumit at all. I like him in this lineup. I feel that if the Twins don't make that big signing in the offseason they will lose many fair weather fans. I think they know they are screwed with the depth for SP in the minors. The only way they can put a respectable rotition together is to sign at least one top pitcher. the FO and ownership doesn't like to lose anymore then we like to watch them lose. With so much $$ coming off the books, Morneau/Span/Mauer healthly, youngesters holding there own, and the pen in ok shape--there will be fair less ??? about next season like there were this year. They have show they will spend if they need to. I hope they know they need to.

#12 James Richter

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Posted 08 June 2012 - 03:30 PM

I think you are underestimating the market for Greinke. The most we coud hope for in terms of a FA signing is a medium sized splash, so maybe one of those guys at the bottom of your list.

Anyways, signing one or two average SP's isn't the solution long term. If teams are willing to overpay for some of our veterans, you have to listen...

I think he's nailed the market for Greinke. Look at the RH SPs making $20M/year - Verlander, Cain, Felix, Halladay - all of them have much lower ERAs with way more IP since 2009 (which includes Greinke's Cy Young season). I don't think many GMs are going to say he's worth as much as those guys, though he'll probably do better than Lackey/AJ Burnett (5/$82 or so). $18.5M/yr for 5 years plus a $7.5M buyout of a 6th year that vests if he's healthy is my guess for what he'll get. That shouldn't be beyond the Twins' means.

However, 2 from the lower part of the list (to which I'd add Dempster and Brandon McCarthy) at $10-12M/yr for 3-4 years is a lot less risky, and the results would still be pretty meaningful. Perhaps throw in a discounted 1-year flier on Baker or somebody else trying to come back from injury, with Gibson hopefully in the pipeline for midsummer, and the whole complexion of the pitching staff would be changed for the better. If there's something left over for position players, spiffy. But SP has to be the #1 offseason priority, and they need to be a lot better than Marquis or Livan.

#13 J-Dog Dungan

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Posted 08 June 2012 - 03:41 PM

I agree with Jim Souhan who is saying that they shouldn't trade Carroll, Willingham, Burton, Perkins, and Mauer, because they are all guys that the Twins can build around,especially Burton, Perkins, and Mauer. He does suggest trading Capps, Liriano, Span (but not because the Twins have outfield depth, like he says), Pavano, and Doumit (if they can't get a long-term deal done). These five guys could get some legit prospects if they do well enough to build their value before the deadline (especially Liriano, who the Twins could want back next year if they could make a deal with him in the offseason if they feel he is worth it.)

#14 Riverbrian

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Posted 08 June 2012 - 08:30 PM

If you want to fix the team. Pitching is where you start... The 2012 FA class is better than the 2013 class. Let the expiring contracts of the current staff go... Sign a Free Agent... A big one with the money saved... Be aggressive. Keep throwing arms until the keepers emerge and pitchers can join the big free agent. Acquire Pitching and when you think you have enough... Acquire some more... Don't even worry about hitting. Find defenders who can catch because it goess hand in hand with pitching... Once you start to have a pitching staff that looks half way decent... Then you can add the boppers.

#15 Dilligaf69

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Posted 08 June 2012 - 09:10 PM

You don't trade anybody for "anybody they can get"...that's what got them in trouble the last few yrs. I'd rather keep Doumit then trade him for a low level prospect.

#16 sotafan

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Posted 11 June 2012 - 11:34 AM

If they can re-sign Doumit to a 2-year deal or something close to that, I have no problem keeping him. I would suspect that he would be a valuable trading chip for teams that are looking for a C/1B/OF/DH. There are many worst catchers out there then Doumit. The Angels and Rays come to mind as buyers for a catcher. I could see a decent SP come back from either of those teams for Doumit. They both have the depth to deal one.

#17 Ultima Ratio

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Posted 11 June 2012 - 11:52 AM

If you want to fix the team. Pitching is where you start... The 2012 FA class is better than the 2013 class. Let the expiring contracts of the current staff go... Sign a Free Agent... A big one with the money saved... Be aggressive. Keep throwing arms until the keepers emerge and pitchers can join the big free agent. Acquire Pitching and when you think you have enough... Acquire some more...

Don't even worry about hitting. Find defenders who can catch because it goess hand in hand with pitching... Once you start to have a pitching staff that looks half way decent... Then you can add the boppers.


I agree with this team-building philosophy. It must begin with Starting pitching, then relief pitching, quality defense, then good hitting, then good base running, then good pitching in AAA, then power hitting. Best evidence besides some former Twins teams to support this method/philosophy: the Pittsburgh Pirates the last few years and especially this year. They are leading the NL Central with the least # of runs scored in all of baseball, 191; and have a -17 run differential. That's great pitching and horrible offense greeting close games and a winning record -- a winning formula for us to follow.
Man is born free, but everywhere he is in chains.

#18 Mr. Ed

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Posted 11 June 2012 - 12:06 PM

Colby Lewis Twins wanted him before, they'll pursue again.

#19 spideyo

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Posted 11 June 2012 - 01:16 PM

I really think we should chase Grienke hard. Unlike many other Marquee players, he seems like the actual situationhes getting into us more important than getting every dollar possible. Not only would it give our rotation something fantastic to build around, it would also be a great PR move and would sell some tickets. Not only that, but it might actually help us land other FA's. Everyone wants to play for a contender, and adding Grienke to the M&M boys is a clear sign that we want to win soon, and not just sit on our hands until Buxton comes up

#20 mike wants wins

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Posted 11 June 2012 - 01:37 PM

Willingham is their largest FA signing ever, at 3 yrs, $21MM. They cut the budget in Ryan's first year, and apparently drafted with the thought of not spending to their alltoment. They did not sign Soler, and international free agency is totally different now. Why would anyone think they'll sign any pitcher to a long term deal? And, if they won't, why would anyone think they'll sign a legit #1 or 2 starter? Does anyone think Ryan has changed his stripes that much? And if so, why do you think that?
Lighten up Francis....

#21 jokin

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Posted 11 June 2012 - 02:34 PM

Why would anyone think they'll sign any pitcher to a long term deal? And, if they won't, why would anyone think they'll sign a legit #1 or 2 starter? Does anyone think Ryan has changed his stripes that much? And if so, why do you think that?


It isn't Ryan's stripes I'm worried about (historically he's done a good job at identifying and acquiring undervalued talent), it's Ryan's strings that ownership has attached to him that are the problem. Imagine the pitch he had to give in order to convince the Pohlad's that they had to make their most expensive FA acquisition ever- Willingham.... love what he's done for the Twins, but it's still just....Willingham, while the real prizes of 2011 were truly franchise-altering: Pujols, Fielder, Reyes, Wilson, Darvish and Buehrle. The Twins already have their two "franchise-alterers" in the M & Ms.

In short, Ryan would have to give the pitch of his life to the Pohlad's, times 2.5, to convince them, and Greinke, that him signing puts the Twins over the top. The chances unfortunately, are slim and none, and I think I saw Slim on a milk carton this morning at breakfast.

#22 ltwedt

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Posted 11 June 2012 - 02:41 PM

LOVE to see them go after Grienke - I also like Lewis and Bedard - I'd quickly shop Span, Capps, Parmalee, Pavano - (much as I like his approach to the game). Casilla - (much as I think if Gardy would give him a chance, he would produce and be a solid glove), De Vries, Butera, Burnett, Gray, Liriano, Manship, Swarzak, Valencia, Mastro, Tosoni - 15 of the 40 man roster, any combo would be doable, There may be value in Span, Capps, Liriano, - but the rest - AAA is full of these types of players - Look - we need bold strokes, - last year we lost 99 and are headed for a 90+ loss season this year - how much worse would it be with 15 newbies?

#23 jokin

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Posted 11 June 2012 - 02:53 PM

LOVE to see them go after Grienke - I also like Lewis and Bedard -


Why not all three? Theoretically, with Pavano, Liriano, Capps and Morneau off the books (by trade or FA), that opens up $33 Mil to spend. That gets you awfully close to the number you would need to get Greinke, Lewis and Bedard ($36-$40 Mil combined salary?) and they could still come well under their 2011 payroll of $112 Mil.