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A Suggestion by Souhan

plouffe escobar hicks santana trades
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#41 spycake

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Posted 01 September 2014 - 01:20 PM

Another problem with looking at Plouffe's stats and ranks right now is that he's considered a streaky hitter who is currently on a hot streak.There have been several points this season where folks here have positively referenced his .740-.750 OPS (or higher, in April/May), and each time it has drifted back down closer to .700.


#42 spycake

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Posted 01 September 2014 - 01:36 PM

There are aspects to Plouffe's career and current status that might potentially make him a desired commodity, namely, 3 more years of cheap cost control, relative youth to most of his peers, possible positional flexibility, and that amazing home run streak in 2012 might remain intriguing in the backs of the minds of certain GMs who play in a park and/or are a team built for power. 

Positional flexibility?Possibly being able to move to first base or corner outfield is a trait shared by, what, 90% of MLB position players?Unless you are suggesting Plouffe could move back to the middle infield...

 

Also, Plouffe's 3 years of control are nice, but I'm not sure they are particularly "cheap" anymore -- they could easily net him $15 mil total in arbitration, even if he loses some of his 2014 performance gains. The fact that they aren't guaranteed is a nice bonus, but even for teams on a budget where Plouffe could be a modest upgrade, that projected money is not insignificant, and could easily be invested in another position while the team tolerated a slightly-worse-than-Plouffe younger/cheaper player at 3B (if not put toward a better 3B outright).

 

Again, he's not a bad player, but his best role is 3B stopgap, and he's on the perfect team for that right now.


#43 jokin

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Posted 01 September 2014 - 01:43 PM

Another problem with looking at Plouffe's stats and ranks right now is that he's considered a streaky hitter who is currently on a hot streak.There have been several points this season where folks here have positively referenced his .740-.750 OPS (or higher, in April/May), and each time it has drifted back down closer to .700.

 

No doubt he's a streaky hitter.  But he has produced decent production numbers overall, with a markedly-changed approach at the plate, far less of a one-dimensional pull hitter, the effect of which has slightly lessened the negative impact of his slumps***.  And there's no doubt to most, including both top rating services, that he's improved defensively, which makes him a little more palatable to allowing him to play through his slumps.

 

 

***  With still a month to play, look especially at the huge number of additional balls hit to the RF gaps and corner in 2014 vs. 2013:

 

 

4618582013040120131005AAAAAspray-chart.p

 

4618582014033120140831AAAAAspray-chart.p

 

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#44 jokin

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Posted 01 September 2014 - 02:15 PM

Positional flexibility?Possibly being able to move to first base or corner outfield is a trait shared by, what, 90% of MLB position players?Unless you are suggesting Plouffe could move back to the middle infield...

 

Also, Plouffe's 3 years of control are nice, but I'm not sure they are particularly "cheap" anymore -- they could easily net him $15 mil total in arbitration, even if he loses some of his 2014 performance gains. The fact that they aren't guaranteed is a nice bonus, but even for teams on a budget where Plouffe could be a modest upgrade, that projected money is not insignificant, and could easily be invested in another position while the team tolerated a slightly-worse-than-Plouffe younger/cheaper player at 3B (if not put toward a better 3B outright).

 

Again, he's not a bad player, but his best role is 3B stopgap, and he's on the perfect team for that right now.

 

 

Not 90% of position players when you take into account the expected production from those 4 positions. Aren't cheap? Look at the available FA 3rd baseman in 2015.

 

Alberto Callaspo (32)

Jack Hannahan (35) – $4MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Chase Headley (31)
Donnie Murphy (32)
Nick Punto (37) – $2.75MM club/vesting option with a $250k buyout
Aramis Ramirez (37) – $14MM mutual option with a $4MM buyout
Hanley Ramirez (31)
Pablo Sandoval (28)
Ty Wigginton (37)
Kevin Youkilis (36)

 

I bolded the cream of the 3rd base crop.  Hanley is demonstrating only 2.5 bWAR, and with his WAR value puffed up at SS, and is oft-injured.  Aramis has a 2.1 bWAR, even though he's having a decent year, and has barely played in 100 games.  Headley's bWAR is 2.4.  Sandoval is at 4.4 WAR  These guys will all be requesting annual salaries of well-North of $10M/year, most of whom will presumably get multi-year deals (Aramis is due $14M if the Brewers exercise his option),  

 

It could be argued that Plouffe, as a clearly cheaper alternative for the next 3 years to similar older, more established, but more likely to either decline or be injured, players, makes it possible for some teams to move those saved payroll dollars to lock up higher-end FA pitchers or different position players.

 

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"forcing Twins fans to endure more bitter, baseless, and tiresome cheap shots about the Twins FO."


#45 spycake

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Posted 01 September 2014 - 02:34 PM

jokin, that assumes that teams have $X to invest only in one position. Like I alluded to, even if the FA 3B crop is weak, that does not mean they would be willing to give up prospect/talent of note for Plouffe. They could invest that $X in another spot and go with a young/cheap player themselves at 3B.

#46 jokin

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Posted 01 September 2014 - 05:42 PM

jokin, that assumes that teams have $X to invest only in one position. Like I alluded to, even if the FA 3B crop is weak, that does not mean they would be willing to give up prospect/talent of note for Plouffe. They could invest that $X in another spot and go with a young/cheap player themselves at 3B.

 

 

All true points, spycake.  I first posted to counter the suggestion that Plouffe was little more than a horrible option with virtually no value.... and that, if a given random team were to consider the alternatives, they could choose to commit $48-$75M on one of the big 4 FA 3rd baseman (and the attendant risks that each presents), or.... trade a fairly decent prospect perhaps two or three years away and get Plouffe for ~$12-$15M in total for the next 3 years, and then use the excess unspent cash to good use at another spot, or spots, on the roster.  It seems that there must be close to at least a dozen teams that might fit those parameters.

Edited by jokin, 01 September 2014 - 05:46 PM.

 

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#47 The Wise One

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Posted 01 September 2014 - 09:21 PM

The statement made was Plouffe is an average at 3b. To trade him the question asked was what team on the cusp of being good has a horrible 3baseman? Plenty of other people seemed to understand that meant as a trade partner you would need to find a team with a horrible 3baseman. Added to that was also a team that did not have a prospect thus limiting trading partners to very few teams.


#48 USAFChief

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Posted 01 September 2014 - 09:41 PM

I don't think it makes sense to trade Plouffe until you've got a replacement ready to take his place and perform better, or at least as well for less money. TheTwins don't have that guy yet.

That goes for all positions, IMO. Make room for minor leaguers when you have one ready, and not a minute before.
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#49 SwainZag

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Posted 01 September 2014 - 09:56 PM

I don't think it makes sense to trade Plouffe until you've got a replacement ready to take his place and perform better, or at least as well for less money. TheTwins don't have that guy yet.

That goes for all positions, IMO. Make room for minor leaguers when you have one ready, and not a minute before.

 

I don't see the urgency to trade him right now.  While yes Escobar is younger and has position flexibility, this is the first year he has hit in the Major Leagues  After 3 years Plouffe finally getting the hang and playing above average defense while his bat is near league average.  There's also the fact no one knows that the future holds for Sano either.  

 

I think he would be worth more to the Twins as he would in most trade situations.  If jokin's estimate is right...which I think it looks like a solid prediction....if you could get Plouffe for 12-15M for the next 3 years and puts up his current production it's not a bad piece to have.  If In fact Sano sticks at 3B and is ready in 2 years, he should be just as tradeable as he is now.


#50 stringer bell

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Posted 01 September 2014 - 10:15 PM

So much uncertainty.Can Santana handle being a regular SS?Can Plouffe improve on his improvements?How soon will Sano and Buxton be ready?Will they be anywhere near as good as predicted?Can Escobar repeat his offensive performance?What will happen to Mauer? 

 

I think that is far too many uncertainties to trade away an asset like Plouffe or Escobar.Having more than enough position players would be a nice problem to have.Slumps and injuries happen.They have close to enough talent to be a very good offense, but as mentioned, way too many question marks to count on it. 

 

They need to fix the pitching staff.A much taller order than having a competent, competitive offense.


#51 drjim

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Posted 02 September 2014 - 06:31 AM

I don't think it makes sense to trade Plouffe until you've got a replacement ready to take his place and perform better, or at least as well for less money. TheTwins don't have that guy yet.

That goes for all positions, IMO. Make room for minor leaguers when you have one ready, and not a minute before.


Yes. And to add on, I don't understand the desire to trade someone as soon as he is effective. Why not have him be effective for the Twins!
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#52 tobi0040

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Posted 02 September 2014 - 02:11 PM

Yes. And to add on, I don't understand the desire to trade someone as soon as he is effective. Why not have him be effective for the Twins!

 

I agree. Put Plouffe and Dozier in that same category.  At some point we want to win ball games and we are going to need good players around to do it, versus prospects, who then are good, then flipped for prospects.  


#53 jokin

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Posted 02 September 2014 - 04:33 PM

 

 

I think that is far too many uncertainties to trade away an asset like Plouffe or Escobar.Having more than enough position players would be a nice problem to have.Slumps and injuries happen.They have close to enough talent to be a very good offense, but as mentioned, way too many question marks to count on it. 

 

 

 

 

They need to fix the pitching staff.A much taller order than having a competent, competitive offense.

 

 

Therein lies the dilemma... the question comes down to when both sides of the coin, as you listed above, come together.  As of now, it's debatable if Escobar and Plouffe will still be relevant when/if? the Twins' pitching and offensive stars finally align.  Can the Twins stand pat with their current SP depth and positional lineup, add Meyer to the rotation to start out 2015, and expect to be contenders out of the gate?  Will they go all-in to win and get into the FA SP market again and get a Shields?  (Which then leaves the next question.... If the decision is made in the offseason that 2015 is to be another 3rd down punt,  as they soon will lose starting gigs, when to move them?.... In the offseason.... or by next July.... if either is deemed the prudent course, to maximize the return).

Edited by jokin, 02 September 2014 - 04:36 PM.

 

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