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A Suggestion by Souhan

plouffe escobar hicks santana trades
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#21 jokin

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Posted 31 August 2014 - 12:55 PM

 I doubt that a(................) league-average 3b draws nearly the trade value of a league-average cf. 

"slightly above" (see post # 17) ;)

 

But yep, no way do you get a Meyer-level potential trade without throwing something else fairly significant into the pot (would Pressly even be enough?).

 

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#22 birdwatcher

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Posted 31 August 2014 - 02:06 PM

No, no, no. Not sure why people are so hot to trot to move Santana out of CF. My eyeballs are telling me he's not too shabby out there in CF. I'm keeping Santana in CF until I have a better option, which might not be until Buxton is ready. Escobar's not too shabby at SS, so moving Santana doesn't fix a problem at SS, but instead maybe creates a problem in the outfield, depending upon what other moves Ryan makes. As for Hicks, I'm ambivalent about his call up, frankly. Rochester is in the throes of a chase for the wild card, and yet Hicks is on Glynn's bench? Is anyone convinced that Hicks improves things as an alternative in CF and LF to Schaffer and Santana, defensively or offensively? The timing for trading Plouffsie is bad. Why not wait until Sano is in place?

Edited by birdwatcher, 31 August 2014 - 02:08 PM.


#23 TheLeviathan

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Posted 31 August 2014 - 02:25 PM

No, no, no. Not sure why people are so hot to trot to move Santana out of CF. My eyeballs are telling me he's not too shabby out there in CF. I'm keeping Santana in CF until I have a better option, which might not be until Buxton is ready. Escobar's not too shabby at SS, so moving Santana doesn't fix a problem at SS, but instead maybe creates a problem in the outfield, depending upon what other moves Ryan makes. As for Hicks, I'm ambivalent about his call up, frankly. Rochester is in the throes of a chase for the wild card, and yet Hicks is on Glynn's bench? Is anyone convinced that Hicks improves things as an alternative in CF and LF to Schaffer and Santana, defensively or offensively? The timing for trading Plouffsie is bad. Why not wait until Sano is in place?

 

The problem exists in the OF regardless of whether Santana is out there or not.  Buxton is this team's future CF, or at least that's the assumption it needs to operate under.

 

So then the question is does Santana help this team more as a COF or a SS?  And to me, that answer is clearly SS.  

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#24 Craig Arko

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Posted 31 August 2014 - 02:44 PM

Don't forget to call up Pinto.
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#25 drjim

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Posted 31 August 2014 - 02:55 PM

"slightly above" (see post # 17) ;)

But yep, no way do you get a Meyer-level potential trade without throwing something else fairly significant into the pot (would Pressly even be enough?).


Duensing. The answer is always Duensing.
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#26 Thrylos

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Posted 31 August 2014 - 03:05 PM

Jim Souhan posted four moves he'd make right now if he was in charge.  What say you to each?

 

I give the first three (especially 1 and 3) my full support.  I'm not on board with #4, not until spring next year at the soonest

 


Let's see what those moves are:

 

1. Take the SS that has made the Twins have the second highest WAR in the position and bench him in favor of a guy who projects to be a bench guy for a competing team

 

2. Trade the guy with the second highest fWAR in the team

 

3. Call up Hicks (instead of playing SS's and Clete's second coming at CF)

 

4. That was retracted and was just there to be there so it does not count.

 

 

So one out of 3 ain't bad (for Souhan)

Edited by Thrylos, 31 August 2014 - 03:06 PM.

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#27 WLFINN

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Posted 31 August 2014 - 03:27 PM

Is Pressly the new Duensing??????


#28 Sconnie

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Posted 31 August 2014 - 04:53 PM

Hicks doesn't need to be dominant to come back up but he's been getting jerked up and down for the last two years.I think the next time he comes up it will be his last chance.Hicks's success in September won't tell us anything for next year.If anything it sets the team up to start with him in CF for a 3rd year.
 
Schafer can play CF so Santana can move to SS for September.

You are right, the next time Hicks is up, it will be his last, but September can be as telling, if not more so, than the average prospect because Hicks isn't really a prospect anymore. Frankly, if he's not ready for 2015, he won't get a shot as the regular CF. You might as well know where you stand with him for 2015 in October 2014.

If Schafer can play CF, why isn't he?

#29 Major Leauge Ready

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Posted 31 August 2014 - 05:38 PM

Escobar has been a pleasant surprise and we would be just fine if he remains are SS.However, Santana has more offensive and defensive upside than Escobar.What better time to test Santana at SS than right now?Let's see what the young an can do there the rest of the season. 

 

Plouffe has been pretty decent this year and he is a god placeholder until Sano arrives.Now, if TR can get a good return that still probably makes sense in the long-run because he was quite poor defensively in the OF and his bat does not profile well as a COF. Moving him is part of the building process but there is no need unless the return warrants doing it sooner than later.

 

Not sure what to think about Hicks. The better option right now IMO is to audition Schafer in CF.It sure would be nice to be on the right side of a turnaround story.


#30 snepp

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Posted 31 August 2014 - 05:55 PM

Plouffe as an LF.When they tried him in right he did not particularly shine there, What would make him a LF? Not his current batting. WOBA comparisons to current LF says he is dreadful by comparison. Trade bait? League average 3b by WAR, below average by WOBA.

 

I was going to nitpick this, but jokin already sufficiently debunked the majority of it. One thing he didn't specifically include, his bat vs left fielders.

 

Major league left fielders: .322 wOBA

 

Plouffe: .329 wOBA

 

Certainly not "dreadful" by comparison.

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#31 Rosterman

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Posted 31 August 2014 - 06:15 PM

We also sadly have Milone and Pelfrey fighting for rotation spots in 2015, which means May may become the next Swarzak and Meyer will start the season at AAA. If Nolasco shows anything, he should be moved.

 

Plouffe is still one more year the stopgap. Escobar is the fine backup. If the Twins start the season with Hicks and Schafer as the centerfielders (sounds like Hicks and Mastro) expect Santana back out there.

 

Next season will be telling for Vargas, Pinto, Santana and Arcia.

 

We hopefully see Sano, Buxton, Rosario at some point.

 

What will Mauer be. Is Dozier a .240 hitter with 20/20 and 100 runs scored. Something seems wrong about that line.

 

All will have some ups and maybe downs.

 

Who can pressure these guys in 2016 and 2017?

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#32 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 31 August 2014 - 07:09 PM

He's not going to net a top 100, but every stat out there shows Plouffe to be an above average 3B right now. I'd imagine if he has a similar or better year next year, his value only rises. Sano isn't ready now, so there's no reason to not keep Plouffe. If he continues to improve, then we have a really nice dilemma on our hands.

Souhan is right about Santana. The real problem I see is that we have 2 above average SS... wait, did I just type that? I'd think one of Santana/Escobar will need to get traded unless the Twins work out a way to have Escobar spell Plouffe, Dozier, and Santana 3 out of every 4 games. Otherwise, I think one needs to move. I also think there would be more value out of that trade than trading Plouffe right now.

#33 tobi0040

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Posted 31 August 2014 - 07:30 PM

He's not going to net a top 100, but every stat out there shows Plouffe to be an above average 3B right now. I'd imagine if he has a similar or better year next year, his value only rises. Sano isn't ready now, so there's no reason to not keep Plouffe. If he continues to improve, then we have a really nice dilemma on our hands.

 

I too don't get the Plouffe talk.  He has an OPS of .750, 30 basis points above the average 3B.  I am guessing he is close to average defensively.  He is relatively cheap and under team control.  If we could net a top 50 prospect, OK move him.  If we could net a top 75 prospect AND Sano was a lock to stick at 3B and be up in June, that is fine.  But many don't believe we will get even a top 100 prospect and Sano's defensive position is not settled.  So I just don't see the point until we have more clarity.


#34 tobi0040

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Posted 31 August 2014 - 07:33 PM

No, no, no. Not sure why people are so hot to trot to move Santana out of CF. My eyeballs are telling me he's not too shabby out there in CF. I'm keeping Santana in CF until I have a better option, which might not be until Buxton is ready. Escobar's not too shabby at SS, so moving Santana doesn't fix a problem at SS, but instead maybe creates a problem in the outfield, depending upon what other moves Ryan makes. As for Hicks, I'm ambivalent about his call up, frankly. Rochester is in the throes of a chase for the wild card, and yet Hicks is on Glynn's bench? Is anyone convinced that Hicks improves things as an alternative in CF and LF to Schaffer and Santana, defensively or offensively? The timing for trading Plouffsie is bad. Why not wait until Sano is in place?

 

Agree on the Plouffe timing....I just think Santana is either the SS on this team when we are good or he has no part of it (at least starting).  Giving him SS right now may create a short term issue and weaken the team a tad, but big picture, that doesn't bother me at all.  We should have had a big picture view all along IMO.

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#35 kab21

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Posted 31 August 2014 - 07:52 PM

You are right, the next time Hicks is up, it will be his last, but September can be as telling, if not more so, than the average prospect because Hicks isn't really a prospect anymore. Frankly, if he's not ready for 2015, he won't get a shot as the regular CF. You might as well know where you stand with him for 2015 in October 2014.

If Schafer can play CF, why isn't he?

 

September won't tell us anything about Hicks.If anything it gives the team false hope going into spring training if he doesn't have a terrible month.

 

Schafer isn't playing CF because Santana is playing CF.If Santana wasn't there then Schafer would be. 

 

Santana should be getting time at SS in September and in spring training so that he isn't completely rusty.If CF turns into another disaster he can move back there during the season next year but his future is not in CF and his bat isn't interesting in a corner position.Imo he has better defensive tools (not current ability) than Escobar and a better bat.He might not project as a great long term option at SS but he is the best option for the next 3-4 years.

 

I'm still distressed by this need to trade Plouffe.Escobar has had a nice season but next season I think he will show us that he's not much of a hitter.I will take the under on a .650 OPS.I'm convinced that this board will be horrified by Sano's defense at the hot corner if he's playing there everyday.Plouffe isn't great but he has a solid bat and glove and is the best 3Bman since Koskie.

Is 2016 2017 2018 the year that a good pitching prospect is truly blocked by 5 good pitchers in the starting rotation? 

 


#36 The Wise One

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Posted 31 August 2014 - 09:33 PM

Stat line averages for MLB 3rd Basemen:

 

OPS .714 wOBA .316 wRC+ 100 ISO .139  fWAR 2.29

 

vs. Plouffe:

 

OPS .739 wOBA .324 wRC+ 106 ISO .169 fWAR 2.9

 

As the stats above indicate,  Plouffe has had a slightly better year than the average for 3rd Base, and his defensive play has improved based on the metrics.  I'm definitely not Plouffie's biggest fan, but I don't see "horrible" in these numbers.  He certainly wouldn't generate a Top 100 prospect in trade, but "slightly above league average" still has some value.

 Are you comparing him to starters or whatever your site lists as a 3b.There are 13 3b with qualified PA with a better WOBA. Ploufe is an average hitter. As a 2 WAR 3B that puts him in the average category. WAr is inprecise.

What I said and stand by is the only way you get value is to trade him to a team with a horrible 3b. No team is going to give up a prospect to downgrade or get about the same player at a position. You won't get much of a prospect for a backup/utility player. That narrows the potential trade partners to maybe 10 teams

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#37 ashburyjohn

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Posted 31 August 2014 - 10:01 PM

 That narrows the potential trade partners to maybe 10 teams

If that.

 

Any team with a 3B with qualified PA with similar or better stats will say "we're set for 2015".

 

Any team with a 3B who didn't qualify due to minor injury, or who has a decent track record but had a bad year, will say "we're set".

 

Any team with a stud prospect who is near ready and can be used at 3B will say "we're set".

 

Any team with a player manning a more difficult position that they can slide over to third will say "we're set".

 

That's why Span was such a valuable trade chip.CF isn't nearly as easy to say "we're set" about.

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#38 drjim

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Posted 01 September 2014 - 07:02 AM

I"m not against trading Plouffe but I don't see the value in getting a barely top 100 prospect. To me that is a step backwards for whatever they would want to do next year and even going forward.

 

If they trade him, they need to get mlb pitching in return, then it might make sense.

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#39 spycake

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Posted 01 September 2014 - 09:40 AM

He's not going to net a top 100, but every stat out there shows Plouffe to be an above average 3B right now.

Really?Maybe above average by a hair, at the moment.

 

Over at Fangraphs, Plouffe ranks 13th in wRC+ out of 26 qualified MLB 3B. And that's his career peak performance thus far.The past few seasons, he's been ranked between 20-25, in the lower third of MLB 3B (the same place Twins 3B were ranked during the "dark years" at the position from 2005-2011 too).

 

http://www.fangraphs...ers=0&sort=17,d

 

Most of his "above average" 2014 value is due to defense... which Fangraphs ranked as notably below average prior to 2014 too.And he turns 29 next year, and will probably be owed ~$18 mil over the next 3 years if he keeps this up.

 

And ashburyjohn highlights the problem with even this ranking -- looking over that list, even though Plouffe ranks 13th, most of the teams below him probably aren't interested in "upgrading" to Plouffe (Rays, Mets, Tigers, Red Sox, for starters).

 

He's a decent enough stopgap, but he's not really a plus player or great trade bait.


#40 jokin

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Posted 01 September 2014 - 11:58 AM

 Are you comparing him to starters or whatever your site lists as a 3b.There are 13 3b with qualified PA with a better WOBA. Ploufe is an average hitter. As a 2 WAR 3B that puts him in the average category. WAr is inprecise.

 

 

I'm not sure why you keep saying Plouffe's a "2 WAR 3rd baseman".  As of today, BRef values Plouffe at 3.2 WAR,  Fgrphs gives him 3.1 WAR.  At this pace, Plouffe would project to a full-season WAR of 3.8.  In 2013, only 9 players, in total and listed at 3rd base had fWARs of 3.0 or greater for the entire year. And as his current overall WAR ratings say- he's well above average in WAR..... you keep calling him an "average hitter", as well, but the stats for 2014 say he's at the least, slightly above average.

 

Here's a counting stat to further indicate how productive Plouffe has been, relative to the position, this season (even though he's played significantly fewer games than all of those listed):

 

XBH by 3rd Base

 

1) Rendon 58

 

2) Plouffe 53  (ranks third overall in doubles for all position players, behind only Lucroy and Cabrera)

 

2) Donaldson 53

4) Seager 50

5) Harrison 50

6) Beltre 44

7) Frazier 44

8) Sandoval 42

 

There are aspects to Plouffe's career and current status that might potentially make him a desired commodity, namely, 3 more years of cheap cost control, relative youth to most of his peers, possible positional flexibility, and that amazing home run streak in 2012 might remain intriguing in the backs of the minds of certain GMs who play in a park and/or are a team built for power. 

 

Joyous, fact-based and tireless Twins fan for 40+ years, who unfortunately has been characterized as-

 

"forcing Twins fans to endure more bitter, baseless, and tiresome cheap shots about the Twins FO."




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