Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.
Subscribe to Twins Daily Email
Photo

Interesting interview with Terry Ryan

  • Please log in to reply
157 replies to this topic

#141 zenser

zenser

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 454 posts

Posted 29 August 2014 - 03:14 PM

My original question was to this comment.
 

You want to finish off a build from the outside? I don't think Ryan's your guy.


To which Brock answered and I agree with this answer.
 

IMO, the Twins are a long way from "finishing up the build"... I'm just skeptical that Ryan is the guy to do that when the time comes.

Right now, the Twins are on the tail end of a rebuild... Maybe they're at the 75% mark. Next season, they *should* be around the 90% mark if things break right with Buxton and Sano.

Which means the 2015 offseason is when things should get really interesting. Do you start building for a winner or sit on your hands for another season?


If you want to go back to the early mid 2000s. The twins had a good core. Back with Pierzynski, Mientkiewicz, Rivas, Guzman, Koskie, Hunter, Jones, Stewart, followed by Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer. Ryan was able to supplement Bartlett and Castillo, Kubel when that core dissolved. Koskie and 3B were the only position they really weren't able to replace. When Koskie left, FA 3B were scarce. Beltre and Glaus signed a big deals the same year Koskie did. I think Casey Blake signed the year Smith signed Lamb. A-Rod signed in there too but we wont get into that. In 2009, Smith signed Crede. Other than that, it was slim FA classes between 2006-2009.

 

Maybe Ryan would have signed a bat to DH in those years, but for the most part, they were set in most positions.Radke and Santana were in the rotation so they had their "aces".

IIRC, in 2007 the Twins signed Mauer, Morneau, and Cuddyer and picked up Hunter's option. Ryan stepped down in 2007 and Smith took over in 2008. In 2008, they signed Morneau, Cuddyer, and Nathan long term. Having the new core signed long term, Span ready to debut, I don't blame them for the offer they made to Hunter and trading Santana. They were more concerned with keeping their young core than Hunter and Santana. They also had a young Baker, Blackburn, Slowey, and Perkins along with Liriano coming off TJ.

To me, the mistake took place in the Garza trade. That was made out of desperation.With a little patience, however, the Santana trade could have worked out.

Edited by zenser, 29 August 2014 - 03:38 PM.


#142 drjim

drjim

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 7,980 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul

Posted 29 August 2014 - 03:25 PM

I don't give all the blame to Ryan on the Santana deal, but I do give him most.He was after all the guy who gave Santana a no trade provision.Santana was a 25-year-old left-handed reigning Cy Young Award winner and Ryan only gave him a four year deal, which actually only bought out one free agent year AND gave him no trade provisions.That was a terrible deal for the Twins.Hindsight would have suggested a 6 year deal was in order, and while hindsight is foolish to dwell in, conventional wisdom would suggest now and at the time that a four year deal is largely inadaquate

 

Minor details, but the contract bought out two years of FA and the no trade was only triggered by a Cy Young award, it wasn't an automatic part of the contract. He probably should have given him a longer contract.

 

On another note, this triggered another costly mistake that Ryan made, which was signing Mauer to only a 4 year deal that bought out one year of FA heading into the 2007 season. In a sense it wasn't necessary to sign the extension at that point, and in another sense, it would have made sense to make it at least a 6 year deal, especially since the original deal expired when Mauer was 28. A 6 year deal would have prevented the need for the 8 year albatross that was eventually signed. He also signed Mauer without resolving Hunter or Santana, who were closer to FA at the time.

 

Ryan was, right or wrong, hesitant to sign Santana t the years required, but if he had extended Hunter before the 2007 he probably could have done a reasonable extension, perhaps 3/45 tacked on to the last year of the deal.

  • nicksaviking likes this
Papers...business papers.

#143 TheLeviathan

TheLeviathan

    Twins News Team

  • Members
  • 13,240 posts

Posted 29 August 2014 - 03:28 PM

Ugh is right. When being criticized for signing free agents, the critics ignore the fact that Ryan was under budget constraints. 

 

Who has ever done that ever?  Of course he had restraints, in part that's what made his misuse of funds even worse.  Flushing 7M down the toilet on a 120M dollar payroll is bad enough...on a 70M payroll?  That really hurts.  

 

It's just one of his biggest weaknesses along with what bird mentioned earlier.  And that's ok, he can still be a good GM and have a weakness or two.

  • birdwatcher likes this

#144 TheLeviathan

TheLeviathan

    Twins News Team

  • Members
  • 13,240 posts

Posted 29 August 2014 - 03:30 PM

Ryan was, right or wrong, hesitant to sign Santana t the years required, but if he had extended Hunter before the 2007 he probably could have done a reasonable extension, perhaps 3/45 tacked on to the last year of the deal.

 

I think it goes back to your earlier point....Ryan is just really fearful of giving out deals 4+.  He has very justifiable reasons for that, but that stance comes with consequences too.  

  • nicksaviking likes this

#145 diehardtwinsfan

diehardtwinsfan

    Twins Moderator

  • Twins Mods
  • 11,023 posts
  • LocationThe charred ruins of BYTO

Posted 29 August 2014 - 04:10 PM

Just a moderator note, this has been a great thread, but let's try to keep it respectful. Thanks.
  • glunn likes this

#146 benji21

benji21

    Member

  • Members
  • 123 posts

Posted 29 August 2014 - 04:31 PM

To be completely frank, I think there's plenty of evidence that he's awful at FA signings. That is easily the most glaring weakness of Ryan, in my opinion.

 

You want a guy to build a farm? Ryan's your guy. You want a steady hand to see a rebuild through to completion? Ryan's your guy. You want to trade away assets for valuable pieces in the future? Ryan's your guy.

 

You want to finish off a build from the outside? I don't think Ryan's your guy.

Yeah, he is pretty awful at FA signings.  I wish we could combine him and Billy Smith.  Smith seemed to be pretty adept at adding complementary pieces in the way that we begged TR to do when Santana, Nathan, M&M and the bunch were rolling.  Remember "we're just another starter and power bat away from a dynasty"?  TR couldn't pull the trigger.  Smith could on stuff like that.  If this really is a devil you know situation, I'd maybe like to dip my toe into the devil you don't know pond.  I always have to have what's behind door #3......Even if it is Antony (blech!)


#147 Thrylos

Thrylos

    They Finally fired ’em. Play Ball!

  • Members
  • 8,556 posts
  • LocationLehigh Valley, PA, USA
  • Twitter: thrylos98

Posted 29 August 2014 - 05:00 PM

You use Garza vs Pavano. Try Garza rather than Blackburn or the bottom of the rotation instead.

 

The premise here is that if the Twins had Garza, they would not need to trade for Pavano or sign Correia.Garza would have been "the horse" and would probably made Pavano $.

-----
Blogging Twins since 2007 at The Tenth Inning Stretch
http://tenthinningst...h.blogspot.com/
twitter: @thrylos98

#148 old nurse

old nurse

    Member

  • Members
  • 2,982 posts

Posted 29 August 2014 - 05:14 PM

The premise here is that if the Twins had Garza, they would not need to trade for Pavano or sign Correia.Garza would have been "the horse" and would probably made Pavano $.

Smith makes the trade for Pavano because there was more than one under performing Twins starter that year. Besides, that year Pavano was cheap at 1.5 mill/yr. 7 mil the next year while significant, would not have been bank breaking on a winning team.Correia would have probably still been signed because there werefar too many holes in that staff. Maybe they take 2 prospects for Revere or not sign Pelfrey. Garza over Pelfrey and the AAA starters would be a significant swing.

Edited by old nurse, 29 August 2014 - 05:16 PM.


#149 Thrylos

Thrylos

    They Finally fired ’em. Play Ball!

  • Members
  • 8,556 posts
  • LocationLehigh Valley, PA, USA
  • Twitter: thrylos98

Posted 29 August 2014 - 05:32 PM

Smith makes the trade for Pavano because there was more than one under performing Twins starter that year. Besides, that year Pavano was cheap at 1.5 mill/yr. 7 mil the next year while significant, would not have been bank breaking on a winning team.Correia would have probably still been signed because there werefar too many holes in that staff. Maybe they take 2 prospects for Revere or not sign Pelfrey. Garza over Pelfrey and the AAA starters would be a significant swing.

 

ok.Let's substitute Garza for the worst starting pitcher for each of the 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 seasons. Does that make the Twins a winning team any of those seasons?Are these Twins teams just a third starter in a good team (because that is what Garza has become pretty much) away from competing or even away from respectability?

 

I don't think so.

-----
Blogging Twins since 2007 at The Tenth Inning Stretch
http://tenthinningst...h.blogspot.com/
twitter: @thrylos98

#150 Sconnie

Sconnie

    From the "right" side of the St Croix

  • Members
  • 3,039 posts
  • LocationNW Wisconsin

Posted 29 August 2014 - 06:55 PM

Don't agree that Ryan was responsible for the rotting of the minor league system - that responsibility falls squarely on Ryan's overmatched successor. When the Pohlad's brought Ryan back, I figured it would be a 3-4 year process to get back to respectibility and competing for the post-season. The model has fundamentally changed in that you can't do it solely through free agency anymore. There are a few players that Ryan might have signed to shorter contracts that would have made watching this team more palatable over the last three years, but those players would have had to be willing to sign here. I don't believe there were many upgrades that were willing. That probably changes a little in the upcoming years as the prospects are starting to arrive and potential free agents can better see how the team will be competitive during their contract period, but now we can be more selective - don't need 32 to 35 year olds larding up the roster.

if it's 3-4 years to get back to respectability, how long does it take to undo an entire minor league system? Smith was only GM for 5 years. And for what it's worth, we're in year 4 and year 5 doesn't look like a playoff contender either, without some pretty big offseason moves.

Edited by Sconnie, 29 August 2014 - 06:58 PM.


#151 Mike Sixel

Mike Sixel

    Now living in Oregon

  • Members
  • 22,779 posts

Posted 29 August 2014 - 08:14 PM

Ben Revere for May and Worley......sigh.

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#152 The Wise One

The Wise One

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,500 posts

Posted 30 August 2014 - 02:37 AM

Ryan has been the GM for 15-16 years. Besides the 2002-06 period his teams have been mediocre or worse.

 

In those years they have won one playoff series. I have a real hard time understanding how that record gets you a lifetime job.

 

In regards to playoff series wins, Beane ,O'Dowd,  Melvin, Moore, Hunnington Jennings and the guy in Seattle with a long funny name have all held their jobs for 5 years or more with very little playoff success. You bring up the lack playoff success as a reason fire a GM. 7 owners other than Pohlad do not think that is a criteria for a mid market team to change the GM. It might be in some people's thinking, but not to the ones signing paychecks. Make your bosses a few hundred million, you have value. That is how you get a percieved lifetime job

For what it is worth, I think the only reason Ryan came back is that when Pohlads were going to fire Smith they talked to Ryan. If they hired an outside the system GM, as there really wasn't anyone in house, Ryan might not have a consulting job. Ryan had to come back to the GM job to keep his lifetime job.

Edited by ChiTownTwinsFan, 30 August 2014 - 12:36 PM.
keep this to the GM discussion


#153 JB_Iowa

JB_Iowa

    Let's Keep Winning!

  • Members
  • 5,986 posts
  • LocationNorthwest Iowa

Posted 30 August 2014 - 08:09 AM

For what it is worth, I think the only reason Ryan came back is that when Pohlads were going to fire Smith they talked to Ryan. If they hired an outside the system GM, as there really wasn't anyone in house, Ryan might not have a consulting job. Ryan had to come back to the GM job to keep his lifetime job.

 

I don't think his motive was self-serving in that way.  I think he did it out of unending loyalty to the myriad other guys on the management team -- many of whom he had worked with for more than 20 years.  Both field staff and front office.

 

And that never-ending loyalty is one of my big problems with this team.  Loyalty can be a very good thing -- it can keep yo from making rash and hasty moves.  But too much loyalty is a bad thing - - it can prevent innovation, change and advancement.

Edited by JB_Iowa, 30 August 2014 - 08:10 AM.

 You've Gotta Have Heart.  All You Really Need Is Heart.

When the Odds Are Saying "You'll Never Win", That's When The Grin Should Start!


#154 ChiTownTwinsFan

ChiTownTwinsFan

    Rawr!

  • Twins Mods
  • 17,993 posts
  • LocationChiTown, where else?

Posted 30 August 2014 - 09:48 AM

Please keep this discussion pertinent, and let's not veer off on the humanity of Carl Pohlad.  Thanks.

  • glunn and snepp like this

“Concern yourself not with what is right and what is wrong but with what is important.” ~Unknown


#155 Rosterman

Rosterman

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 2,639 posts

Posted 30 August 2014 - 11:57 AM

We can talk about the mess in the search for starting pitchers. What was the criteria. Over-paying for Nolasco, Correia, Pelfrey. Hughes is good today, but he falls in the realm of a Radke or Tapani if he remains consistent.

 

Minor leagues are a crapshoot. Ryan called Joe Benson a multi-tooled talent. Aaron Hicks is a multi-tool talent but looks more like a plain old tool, especially when you consider that Santana and Vargas pretty much made the same jump with success, which my or may not last.

 

The minors are a crap shoot. I look at the Maple Street Press from 2011 and here are the prospects as Seth predicted who would make an impact in the coming years. They ALL should've been a part of the team, in some way, by now.

 

Starting Pitchers: Kyle Gibson, Liam Hendriks, Alex Wimmers, David Bromberg, Adrian Salcedo. The one to watch: Dan Osterbrock. The Sleeper: Martire Garcia.

 

Top 5 Relief Prospects: Carlos Gutierrez, Anthony Slama, Billy Bullock, Dakota Watts, Kyle Waldrop. One to Watch: Tony Davis. Sleeper: Jose Gonzalez. What happened here?

 

Catchers: Danny Rams, Jair Fernandez, Chris Herrmann. One to Watch: Danny Lehmann. Sleeper: Dan Rohlfing. (No Pinto)

 

Top 5 in the Infield: Miguel Sano, Chris Parmelee, Trevor Plouffe, Steve Singleton, Brian Dozier. One to Watch: James Beresford. Sleeper: Danny Santana. Did a little bit better here. Also mentioned were Niko Goodrum and Jorge Polanco.

 

Outfielders: Aaron Hicks, Joe Benson, Ben Revere, Oswaldo Arcia, Angel Morales. One to Watch: Max Kepler. Sleeper: Daniel Ortiz. The recovering Rene Tosoni was mentioned, as well as recent picks Nate Roberts and Eddie Rosario.

 

A couple are still on the horizon. Some fizzled. Some have bench strength. Many just disappeared. Hendriks might still have a career. Revere brought us Worley who we gave up on for cash...CASH!

 

38 prospects from 2011.

 

Made the Majors: 15

 

Still in System: 9 (or is it 10)

 

Yo rebuild a team by shrewd drafting, supplemental pickups of modest free agents, clever trades of promised depth, and correct free agent signings (which is a 50/50 I'll admit). Ypu do make a lot of mistakes and can't predict (tell me, who would you think would be playing centerfield - Santana or Hicks or Benson).

Joel Thingvall
www.joelthingvall.com
rosterman at www.twinscards.com


#156 The Wise One

The Wise One

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,500 posts

Posted 30 August 2014 - 09:26 PM

Please keep this discussion pertinent, and let's not veer off on the humanity of Carl Pohlad.  Thanks.

 Ryan worked for Carl. Ryan reported to Carl,. Ryan would have limitations imposed by Carl. One of the limitations Ryan had was that he had to work within the restraints of Pohlad and also what pleased Pohlad the most. What pleased Pohlad the most would define why to some he has a "lifetime" job.


#157 The Wise One

The Wise One

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,500 posts

Posted 31 August 2014 - 04:19 AM

Change GM's for the sake of change. Need new blood in the organization. That will change things. In the current baseball world that is a fallacy, especially for a small market team.

10 teams have changed GMs since the end of the 2010 season besides the Twins. In the immediate gratification department, 5 teams this season have a better winning percentage than when the GM took over, as does Ryan.  Dan Duquette is viewed as a bright man, he has turned around franchises before. His team has made the playoffs but not advanced. Jerry DiPoto has a large market team. His team is better, and should make the playoffs this year. Jeff Luhnow took over a team that could not be much worse. Like Ryan, he couldn't help but get a little better.AJ Preller has been on the job about 2 weeks, His team has had a good couple of weeks.Then there is Antonetti.His team had a sniff in the playoffs. He came from within the organization.The GM before him was not fired, but promoted.Changing GMs is not a short term solution to a club being a championship level club.There is only one Dan Duquette. Everyone else seems to prove that.


#158 The Wise One

The Wise One

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,500 posts

Posted 31 August 2014 - 04:24 AM

 

 

 

 

Yo rebuild a team by shrewd drafting, supplemental pickups of modest free agents, clever trades of promised depth, and correct free agent signings (which is a 50/50 I'll admit). Ypu do make a lot of mistakes and can't predict (tell me, who would you think would be playing centerfield - Santana or Hicks or Benson).

Correct free agents and modest free agent signings. I would love to know where the 50-50 stat of success rate came from.