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Article: Only One Spot to Address for 2015?

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#21 gunnarthor

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Posted 27 August 2014 - 08:44 AM

I really don't like WAR but I'm going to use fWAR for a quick second to see how the Twins are per position in the AL.  The second number is just OPS, non-adjusted.

 

C - 8/15 (WAR) and 5/15 (OPS).  Suzuki has been solid but Fryar and Pinto have been useless.

1B - 13/15 and 13/15.  This is the one spot I think they Twins can expect a big rebound with a healthy Mauer and less Colabello and Parm.

2B - 5/15 and 3/15. Dozier is a legit second baseman on a playoff team.

3B - 5/15 and 9/15.  I was surprised.  Weak year for offense hides the fact that Plouffe's been pretty good overall.  I still don't trust Plouffe but Sano should be here soon enough.

SS - 1/15 and 5/15.  And here I was stunned but they are double counting Santana for WAR.  Just Escobar and it's closer to 7 out of 15.  Still, pretty good year for our short stops.

LF - 12/15 and 11/15.

CF - 6/15 and 5/15.  Fangraphs loved Fuld for WAR and Santana's obviously been good.  

RF - 14/15 and 9/15.  Pulled down by the double counting of Parm and Colabello for WAR but Arcia isn't a good defender yet.

DH - 9/15 and 5/15.  A bit surprised that OPS liked the Twins DH's so much.

 

So ... Nick has a point.  While RF hasn't been great, Arcia should get the vast majority of AB next year, even if his defense is down.  Vargas should get 600 PA too.  The big questions is regression for guys like Escobar, Santana, Suzuki and Plouffe.  

 

The Twins could bring in a guy like Nelson Cruz on a 3 year deal.  Or Nick Markakis.  But there isn't a lot else out there in the FA bin.  Maybe Colby Rasmus accepts a one year deal to fix his stock.  But a lot of guys - Hicks, Arcia, Vargas, Santana, Pinto, Escobar just need to play to see what we have while Buxton and Sano are in AAA.

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#22 drjim

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Posted 27 August 2014 - 08:47 AM

I would argue that they need a 1 year CF stop gap.I'd probably let Parmelee audition for LF and move Plouffe there if he fails and Sano is ready.

 

Haven't they already auditioned Parmelee and moved on?

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#23 Mike Sixel

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Posted 27 August 2014 - 08:47 AM

Needing to see young guys play, and saying they have no holes, are two very different things, imo. There being few good outside options, and having no holes, are two very different things, imo.

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#24 drjim

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Posted 27 August 2014 - 08:54 AM

I agree with being patient with the LF market, but strongly disagree with the pitching analysis.

 

They have plenty of room to add to the rotation. Don't think they'll go for Lester or Scherzer, but everyone else in a pretty good crop should be fair game. Though I will add they should go big or not bother, they have plenty of backend guys.

 

They should also turn over about half the bullpen. Many of the replacements can come internally, but nothing wrong with going after another reclamation project or two.

 

Perkins and Fien should be the only givens - no reason to bring back Duensing and Swarzak and they can upgrade on Thielbar pretty easily. Burton and Deduno gone, with Pressly and/or Pelfrey acting as the long man.

 

So in summary:

 

1. Go big on SP (ahem Shields)

2. Sign a LF, but wait out the market and be comfortable with internal guys if absolutely necessary

3. Turn over half the bullpen

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#25 drjim

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Posted 27 August 2014 - 08:58 AM

Needing to see young guys play, and saying they have no holes, are two very different things, imo. There being few good outside options, and having no holes, are two very different things, imo.

 

I don't think Nick said there were no holes (he never uses the word "hole"), but I think the point is that they have a guy in place at 8 positions and most of the rotation/bullpen to start the season. No real reason to put words in his mouth.

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#26 Nick Nelson

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Posted 27 August 2014 - 08:59 AM

Depressing because this really isn't a good team and basically seeing a clone next year makes me want to kick something.  It may turn out that the young players mature and next year is easier to watch.  Or it may turn out that there is a lot of regression and next year is as depressing as the last few years.

 

Only time will tell.  (But I still think I'd like to see some changes -- one that I mentioned elsewhere is a Spanish-speaking veteran to help mentor the younger players.)

 

Well, it wouldn't be a clone. Buxton, Sano and Meyer -- the org's three best prospects -- are all expected to debut next year, which is kind of a big deal. Berrios (now the No.4 prospect?) also has a decent chance to enter the mix. And you've got some younger players hopefully improving.

 

Even if there's some regression (obviously there are a few clear candidates) I have a hard time imagining that next year could possibly be as depressing as the last few unless there's a big rash of injuries. The excitement generated by the big-name prospects will change the game.

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#27 Willihammer

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Posted 27 August 2014 - 09:01 AM

Yeah I'm not in love with too many in the bullpen, and I haven't been impressed by Tonkin from what we've seen of him. Maybe Guerra or Oliveros can fill a role, and Pelfrey or whoever is shoved out of the rotation but there will be 1-2 open spots by my math.

Edited by Willihammer, 27 August 2014 - 09:01 AM.

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Well, there's that.

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#28 Mike Sixel

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Posted 27 August 2014 - 09:01 AM

I'd also like half the bullpen turned over.....that gives them roster flexibility to move guys up and down to AAA, which they NEED given the youth and question marks. 

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I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#29 BMCACCAL

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Posted 27 August 2014 - 09:02 AM

I think gunnarthor has the best point of all - regardless of the quality of players we have, there just isn't a whole lot out there in the FA market for either pitching or hitting. Nelson Cruz is about it for someone who could be a longer term solution in LF or Rasmus, Melky Cabrerra, Rajai Davis or Cuddyer on ashort term deal. There are a couple of high level pitchers that will be out of the Twins price range and not a lot of B level quality. The best thing to do is leave the lineup the way it is, except hope that HIcks could actually stick as a LF.  

 

By the way, has anyone heard who the PTBNL is in the Correia trade? I know I'm dreaming but I'm hoping there's a chance it will be Scott Van Slyke or that we can sweeten the pot to get him.He's 28, a solid right handed hitter with power and actually a pretty good defensive outfielder.He'll never get the chance to play in LA with the 4 OFs they have and he might be a good get for LF - hit 5th and move everybody down one.

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#30 Mike Sixel

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Posted 27 August 2014 - 09:02 AM

Well, it wouldn't be a clone. Buxton, Sano and Meyer -- the org's three best prospects -- are all expected to debut next year, which is kind of a big deal. Berrios (now the No.4 prospect?) also has a decent chance to enter the mix. And you've got some younger players hopefully improving.

 

Even if there's some regression (obviously there are a few clear candidates) I have a hard time imagining that next year could possibly be as depressing as the last few unless there's a big rash of injuries. The excitement generated by the big-name prospects will change the game.

 

Are they? Buxton missed the year, as did Sano. Neither has played above AA. Are we so sure they will play here next year?

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I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#31 JB_Iowa

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Posted 27 August 2014 - 09:08 AM

 I have a hard time imagining that next year could possibly be as depressing as the last few unless there's a big rash of injuries. 

 

Famous last words.

 

I know we expect to see Buxton, Sano and Meyer ..... but I'm not holding my breath.

 

There's hope.  But there is also the possibility of a lot of struggle.

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#32 TheDean

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Posted 27 August 2014 - 09:10 AM

I really don't like WAR but I'm going to use fWAR for a quick second to see how the Twins are per position in the AL.  The second number is just OPS, non-adjusted.

 

C - 8/15 (WAR) and 5/15 (OPS).  Suzuki has been solid but Fryar and Pinto have been useless.

1B - 13/15 and 13/15.  This is the one spot I think they Twins can expect a big rebound with a healthy Mauer and less Colabello and Parm.

2B - 5/15 and 3/15. Dozier is a legit second baseman on a playoff team.

3B - 5/15 and 9/15.  I was surprised.  Weak year for offense hides the fact that Plouffe's been pretty good overall.  I still don't trust Plouffe but Sano should be here soon enough.

SS - 1/15 and 5/15.  And here I was stunned but they are double counting Santana for WAR.  Just Escobar and it's closer to 7 out of 15.  Still, pretty good year for our short stops.

LF - 12/15 and 11/15.

CF - 6/15 and 5/15.  Fangraphs loved Fuld for WAR and Santana's obviously been good.  

RF - 14/15 and 9/15.  Pulled down by the double counting of Parm and Colabello for WAR but Arcia isn't a good defender yet.

DH - 9/15 and 5/15.  A bit surprised that OPS liked the Twins DH's so much.

 

So ... Nick has a point.  While RF hasn't been great, Arcia should get the vast majority of AB next year, even if his defense is down.  Vargas should get 600 PA too.  The big questions is regression for guys like Escobar, Santana, Suzuki and Plouffe.  

 

The Twins could bring in a guy like Nelson Cruz on a 3 year deal.  Or Nick Markakis.  But there isn't a lot else out there in the FA bin.  Maybe Colby Rasmus accepts a one year deal to fix his stock.  But a lot of guys - Hicks, Arcia, Vargas, Santana, Pinto, Escobar just need to play to see what we have while Buxton and Sano are in AAA.

 

I like the premise of the analysis, but I prefer wRC+ (or OPS+) just because it bumps the Twins up at just about every position about one or two spots since it accounts for Target Field (or lack of Yankee Stadium when comparing to AL East). Just my opinion.

 

I agree that DH number is way too high, but it may be that it doesn't account for Morales?  The Twins sit back at 10th when I look at the wRC+ ranking for DH.

 

I also wanted to opine that Arcia passes as league average (or maybe just a little under) both in eye test and UZR.  Granted, that's compared against other RFs.  Can't ignore that he has the #4 ARM rating in the AL (behind Bautista, Markakis, and Aoki).

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#33 USAFChief

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Posted 27 August 2014 - 09:21 AM

I feel like I read this exact article last fall.

IMO there is little chance the Twins are a competitive team in 2015 if they do little to improve this winter. And I'm not in favor of sitting around through more losing seasons waiting for the minor leagues to provide all the talent this team needs to be a 90+ win team again.

There's almost no chance Sano or Buxton are productive major leaguers next year, and not a whole lot more hope foe Meyer, IMO...and that's provided they even make the big leagues. Meyer can't even crack the 25 man on THIS team.
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#34 iTwins

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Posted 27 August 2014 - 09:22 AM

One spot to address via a major acquisition? Probably accurate. But, I certainly hope they address a lot more than one thing.

I'd like to see the Twins add depth this offseason. While Santana looks primed to take over CF or SS, Escobar could fill the utlity role and Vargas could be the regular DH for years to come - I'd like it if the Twins didn't simply assume that they're all going to contribute at their current levels perpetually.

Persue a free agent LF (or a LF via trade). They don't necessarily have to be the big powerful bat - in fact a guy who can cover CF in a pinch would be just fine with me. But don't stop at LF and figure "Well, the rookies will carry the rest of the load". Injuries happen, regression happens. Plan "B" is a good thing - and something I don't think the Twins have really thought about over the past few years.

I'd love an offseason with one big move and a whole bunch of little stuff. Add depth. Have a plan B. (Please)

#35 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 27 August 2014 - 09:31 AM

Haven't they already auditioned Parmelee and moved on?

 

They may think they have...I'm not really certain he's gotten a fair shake.Gardy doesn't seem to like him much.If Parm's a 4th OF/PH, that's fine, but I'm not sure how they can come to a conclusion when he rarely gets to play more than 2-3 games in a row before ending up on the bench. 


#36 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 27 August 2014 - 09:31 AM

I'd go for two fixes:

 

1. A stop-gap CF option. Pick up a vet who can hold a bat without embarrassing himself with the expectation that either Hicks or Buxton will later take the job. Do all you can to move Santana to short.

 

2. A more long-term fix for LF or RF. Maybe not Melky but someone who is competent out there.

 

By mid-season, that could be a pretty good lineup if Sano slides Plouffe into a utility role and platoon and Buxton/Santana slide into CF/SS and Escobar becomes a roving bench guy.

 

At this point, I don't care what happens to the likes of Nunez, Parmelee, and their ilk. They're fine as bench guys until something better comes along.

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#37 Mike Sixel

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Posted 27 August 2014 - 09:32 AM

"there's no way the SP can be as bad as last year".....this is the now the third off season (since this is an off season thread) I've read that.....so far, it has been as bad two years in a row (not relative to the Twins, but to the league) give or take the margin of error.

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I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#38 JB_Iowa

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Posted 27 August 2014 - 09:36 AM

And, except for Chief, we still aren't talking about the elephant in the room ....

 

Does the management staff stay intact?  Especially on field?

 

To me, a new field manager and (some of his) lieutenants are a big need.  And as of a month ago, there seemed to be a fair amount of agreement on that in certain parts of Twins Territory.

 

Have we just resigned ourselves to at least one more year of Ronnie & crew?

 You've Gotta Have Heart.  All You Really Need Is Heart.

When the Odds Are Saying "You'll Never Win", That's When The Grin Should Start!


#39 Mike Sixel

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Posted 27 August 2014 - 09:38 AM

Resignation is pretty much my state, yes.

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#40 birdwatcher

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Posted 27 August 2014 - 09:43 AM

Needing to see young guys play, and saying they have no holes, are two very different things, imo. There being few good outside options, and having no holes, are two very different things, imo.


But what are your IDEAS?