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Hughes' Season

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#21 spycake

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Posted 22 August 2014 - 09:42 AM

Hughes has been pretty awesome.  And even though everyone on this board wanted him and loved the contract, credit to the Twins for making it happen and actually getting good results from him almost immediately. 

 

Still, he's only at a 108 ERA+ -- he has previously put up 103 and 101 figures with NY (albeit with slightly lower IP/GS too).  The key for him will be, can he repeat this next year?  Especially with that crazy low 0.8 BB/9, that might prove difficult for a career 2.8 BB/9 guy to sustain over a long period.

 

Anyway, great to see a borderline ace again on the Twins, at least for the time being.  Would love for someone to join him, or even best him as a Radke-level ace...


#22 Kirby_waved_at_me

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Posted 22 August 2014 - 09:50 AM

Yes, can he repeat it next year? That's the burning question for all of the Twins' bright spots. Who is going to regress (*cough Kurt Suzuki *cough) and who is going to get better / maintain their 2014 success?

 

My Spring Training Optimist thinks that Gibson have more good/great starts than clunkers next year, and be the Good #2 / #3 starter behind Hughes. 

 

I still am really hoping for the Twins to take a shot at adding another front end starter to the rotation as well(though it would fly in the face of logic and past history).


#23 spycake

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Posted 22 August 2014 - 09:53 AM

If Hughes can stay healthy and productive, he's going to be entering free agency again at age 30.

 

He has a shot at getting a $80-100m contract. So weird to think about. It seems like the guy has been in the league for 15 years.

I don't know about $80-100m.  He'd have to step up his game over the next couple years to see that at age 30.  Right now, he's just moving into the ~4/50 group from last offseason (maybe he's taking Nolasco's spot in that group :) or Ubaldo Jimenez's spot).

 

Seemed weird that he didn't sign a 1-year deal this past offseason, he would almost certainly get 4/50 this offseason, right?  Or thanks to his age, something more like's Garza's 5/65 including options.  He already had $15 mil in career earnings, would have certainly had $23 mil after 2014 either way... not sure why he wanted to lock in only the next $16 mil at the same time.


#24 BMCACCAL

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Posted 22 August 2014 - 09:54 AM

Great season for Hughes. Maybe he can be the #2 starter we need.Who knows, maybe Gibson can be the solid #3, Nolasco a #4 and Milone/May a #5 next year.Through in a FA like Shields to pitch #1 (I know he's not really a #1, but the closest thing out there that we could get) and we might have a competitive rotation next year.

 

The problem with that scenario is that it wouldn't leave any room for 2 of the 3 young guys.It's more likely that we add 2 of the 3 May/Meyer/Milone group to the rotation and struggle again, at least for one more year while we hope that one of the young guys becomes a #1. I think that's the way to go since we will struggle offensively again while trying to develop Arcia, Vargas, Santana, Hicks and someone else to play center (Schafer?).  


#25 spycake

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Posted 22 August 2014 - 09:59 AM

The future for Hughes is pretty bright, given his age and health. Can we imagine how disappointing this season would be if Hughes and Suzuki weren't picked up this past off season?

Love me some 2014 vintage Suzuki, but in my mind he takes a clear back seat to Hughes in this regard.  Not only is Hughes performing well, by some measures he is actually underperforming his peripherals, compared to Suzuki who is almost universally over-performing them.

 

Add to it there is a good chance we would have had a ~100 OPS+ catcher anyway.  There was no realistic way we were getting a #22 ranking pitcher rWAR season in 2014 from anyone else.


#26 kab21

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Posted 23 August 2014 - 06:51 PM

It's strange that extensions have been talked about with all kinds of Twins where it didn't really matter.Suzuki (whatever), Dozier (in arb for 4 more years or something), Willy (whatever) and even Arcia.But never Hughes. 

 

FWIW - Hughes WAR is being calculated based on a 2.61 FIP.The expectation from fangraphs is that FIP is a more accurate projection than ERA.He has been unlucky with stranding runners this year and FIP takes that bad luck out of the calculation but leaves in his lucky (6%) HR/FB rate.He's been good but nobody is going to expect a 2.61 ERA out of him in the future.

 

Still it's not that crazy to think that he could get 80M in a couple of years if he does what he did this year 3.50ish ERA.

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I look forward to the day that a pitching prospect is truly blocked by good pitchers.


#27 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 23 August 2014 - 07:49 PM

Hughes has been great, his results have been very good and his advanced metrics actually tell us he is pitching close to a "legit" ace type.

Not sure how willing Hughes would be to listen, but if I were Terry Ryan I would seriously consider approaching him with an extension. Maybe tack on 3 years to the current deal at 14-16 mil each season?

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#28 Willihammer

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Posted 23 August 2014 - 10:16 PM

Will Hughes continue to walk 2% of runners? Will his HR/FB rate stay where it is? I'd wager no on both. Not that extending him is a bad idea but doing it now seems like the definition of buying high.


#29 stringer bell

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Posted 23 August 2014 - 10:26 PM

Will Hughes continue to walk 2% of runners? Will his HR/FB rate stay where it is? I'd wager no on both. Not that extending him is a bad idea but doing it now seems like the definition of buying high.

That would be a decision to be made next off-season. We shall see if some of Hughes' stats regress and by how much.
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#30 kab21

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Posted 24 August 2014 - 12:52 AM

Will Hughes continue to walk 2% of runners? Will his HR/FB rate stay where it is? I'd wager no on both. Not that extending him is a bad idea but doing it now seems like the definition of buying high.

 

And right now Hughes knows that he is just a season removed from a 5ERA and getting kicked out of the rotation.There's still a discount available.The important thing here is that the rebuilding is targeted to last longer than the next 2 seasons and the Twins don't want to be filling another hole in their rotation in 2 years.There are some decent prospects in the minors but he needs to be locked up.

 

Of course he's not going to keep walking 2% of runners.Chances are that he doesn't keep allowing 30% of the runners on base to score either.Right now he has a few lucky/unlucky metrics in his stats and they probably cancel out.I don't think it would be shocking if he was a 3.50 ERA pitcher for the next few seasons.Extending him for 12-15M for 3 more seasons would be brilliant. 

I look forward to the day that a pitching prospect is truly blocked by good pitchers.


#31 Badsmerf

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Posted 24 August 2014 - 08:08 AM

I think you wait a season. Stir the price might go up a little, but there is something to be paid for a place you are succeeding. Look at liriano, great 2010 has everyone excited then regressed. His advanced stats looked good too.
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#32 DocBauer

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Posted 24 August 2014 - 08:30 AM

The really nice thing about Hughes' season is that nothing about it screams fluke, luck or regression. He was one of the top overall pitching prospects a few years back. While inconsistent, he has shown flashes with the Yankees in the past, including some good seasons and very good stretches. He's still young, and has a solid frame; meaning durable and strong, no unexpected sudden loss in velocity as he hits 30.

And to top it off, considering his splits of home vs road when with the Yankees, you could argue this season was almost expected. Almost. You still have to go out and do it. And he has. I believe there may even be room for some improvement, but I'll take a repeat season with no worries.

As stated, when Hughes takes the mound, I actually expect a win, as opposed to crossing my fingers and thinking there is a chance.

He's not quite there yet, still a little too inconsistent, but I pretty much feel the same way when Gibson takes the mound. What a great pair to begin your rotation with! Now...if Nolasco in 2015 is the guy we thought he was, and the guy he mostly has been previously......

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#33 AM.

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Posted 24 August 2014 - 09:08 PM

I agree that if the Twins were smart they would check out the prospects of extending Hughes. 3/36 extension would be a great deal.

He signed for three years because the Twins offered it. He wanted some certainty. I imagine he would be open to signing an extension here.

My imagination is sometimes off, though.

#34 kab21

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Posted 24 August 2014 - 09:26 PM

If Hughes has another season like this one then the extension goes from something like 3/40 (plus the 2/16 left) to 4/64 to 5/80 (plus the 1/8 left).A big part of the reason is that he will only have 1 yr left before FA and there seems to be a big mindset change when players are that close.

 

The other consideration is that a 3 yr extension locks him up through age 32.A 5 yr extension next offseason locks him up age 34/35. 

I look forward to the day that a pitching prospect is truly blocked by good pitchers.


#35 drjim

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Posted 25 August 2014 - 12:30 PM

The first time the Twins were rumored to be trying to acquire Hughes was back when they were looking for a trade partner for Santana - wasn't a Hughes / Melky / Ian Kennedy package mentioned? That does seem like a lifetime ago.

 

It would be interesting if the Twins do manage to go after Cabrera in the offseason and end up with 2 of the guys they might have acquired for Johan so long ago. 

 

The offer on the table was Hughes and Austin Jackson (and another guy who didn't make it). The Twins held out for the addition of another guy (who also didn't make it). 

Papers...business papers.

#36 Kirby_waved_at_me

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Posted 25 August 2014 - 01:02 PM

The offer on the table was Hughes and Austin Jackson (and another guy who didn't make it). The Twins held out for the addition of another guy (who also didn't make it). 

 

Melky, Kennedy, Hughes and Jeff Marquez was the Twins' rumored request for Santana

 

http://nypost.com/20.../still-playing/

 

I agree that the Yankees did not offer that specific package, just that those were the players rumored to be in play for a trade to NNY for Santana. If they did offer that, the Twins would have taken it over what the Mets offered.


#37 drjim

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Posted 25 August 2014 - 01:23 PM

Melky, Kennedy, Hughes and Jeff Marquez was the Twins' rumored request for Santana

 

http://nypost.com/20.../still-playing/

 

I agree that the Yankees did not offer that specific package, just that those were the players rumored to be in play for a trade to NNY for Santana. If they did offer that, the Twins would have taken it over what the Mets offered.

 

I'm pretty sure they offered a specific three person package - Jackson, Hughes, Marquez - and then pulled it after three days when the Twins didn't take it. This was in early December.

Papers...business papers.

#38 Kirby_waved_at_me

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Posted 25 August 2014 - 01:30 PM

I'm pretty sure they offered a specific three person package - Jackson, Hughes, Marquez - and then pulled it after three days when the Twins didn't take it. This was in early December

 

The Yankees offered Hughes and Cabrera plus a prospect - Twins wanted Austin Jackson to be the third:

http://www.si.com/ml...2/santana-talks

 

It goes back to another thread earlier this year on TD about the Torii Hunter deal with LAA - if the Twins still had a CF, (Span was not ready yet) maybe Cabrera and Hughes would have been Twins a long time ago?

 

The Twins were trying to get Austin Jackson from NYY, Ellsbury from BOS, maybe Kemp from LAA, and ended up with Gomez. 


#39 laloesch

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Posted 25 August 2014 - 09:21 PM

I had that same thought. Funny old game this baseball. They should go after Kennedy too and complete the troika.

 

Would be nice to have Ian Kennedy.




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