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Hughes' Season

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#1 stringer bell

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Posted 22 August 2014 - 04:48 AM

When Phil Hughes signed with the Twins, I thought he might do a good job in the middle of the rotation. He has long been known as a fly ball pitcher and Target Field's deep power alleys were likely to turn some long drives into outs and doubles instead of home runs.

I think he has exceeded almost everyone's expectations. I looked at his rankings in the "pitching triple crown" and was surprised to see that he was tied for first in wins in the AL. Given that the Twins are double digits under .500, that is an admirable achievement. Further, Hughes has 148 strikeouts (10th in AL) and has an fair chance to get to 200. I believe Liriano made it to 200 in 2010, but who was the last right hander to get to or exceed 200 Ks in a season?

Hughes' ERA of 3.65 ranks 27th, nothing to write home about, but given the poor range of several of the players in the field behind him, I think even that number is a real positive surprise.

The future for Hughes is pretty bright, given his age and health. Can we imagine how disappointing this season would be if Hughes and Suzuki weren't picked up this past off season?

#2 Thegrin

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Posted 22 August 2014 - 05:18 AM

When Hughes pitches, wins are expected and losses are a surprise.That is a good kind of pitcher to have in the rotations.:)

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#3 SweetOne69

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Posted 22 August 2014 - 06:27 AM

When Phil Hughes signed with the Twins, I thought he might do a good job in the middle of the rotation. He has long been known as a fly ball pitcher and Target Field's deep power alleys were likely to turn some long drives into outs and doubles instead of home runs.

I think he has exceeded almost everyone's expectations. I looked at his rankings in the "pitching triple crown" and was surprised to see that he was tied for first in wins in the AL. Given that the Twins are double digits under .500, that is an admirable achievement. Further, Hughes has 148 strikeouts (10th in AL) and has an fair chance to get to 200. I believe Liriano made it to 200 in 2010, but who was the last right hander to get to or exceed 200 Ks in a season?

Hughes' ERA of 3.65 ranks 27th, nothing to write home about, but given the poor range of several of the players in the field behind him, I think even that number is a real positive surprise.

The future for Hughes is pretty bright, given his age and health. Can we imagine how disappointing this season would be if Hughes and Suzuki weren't picked up this past off season?

 

While Hughes has had an excellent season, unfortunately he has very little chance to get 200 Strikeouts.

 

There are 36 games left which means that Hughes will have 5 mores starts.He needs to average 7.5K's per outing to hit 200.So far this season he has only SO more that 7 in a game 5 times.My guess is that he will finish with 180-190 K's.


#4 Kirby_waved_at_me

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Posted 22 August 2014 - 06:32 AM

Where would the Twins be - probably still last place in the AL Central...

 

That was a little tongue-in-cheek, I think Hughes gives the Twins the closest thing they've had to an Ace since Santana left.

 

I think he might get 6 or even 7 more starts, assuming he goes every 5th game. 36 / 5 is 7.2 - I'd still think 175-190 is a more likely total for his season.


#5 TKGuy

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Posted 22 August 2014 - 07:00 AM

He has been more than I expected and I am sure the Yankees were wondering where that was.  However, sometimes a change of scenery does make a difference.  Although, I suppose a person could give Rick Anderson and the staff credit for getting Hughes to this point and stop harping about Worley, because he is turning back into the Worley we knew and didn't love anyways, but we know that won't happen on this board :)


#6 Kirby_waved_at_me

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Posted 22 August 2014 - 07:04 AM

The answer, my friend, is blowin' in the wind. The answer is blowin' in the wind.


#7 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 22 August 2014 - 07:08 AM

While Hughes has had an excellent season, unfortunately he has very little chance to get 200 Strikeouts.

 

There are 36 games left which means that Hughes will have 5 mores starts.He needs to average 7.5K's per outing to hit 200.So far this season he has only SO more that 7 in a game 5 times.My guess is that he will finish with 180-190 K's.

 

Am I missing something? 36 / 5 = 7.2. Hughes should have at least six starts left this season, though you're right that it will be difficult to reach 200 Ks.


#8 Kirby_waved_at_me

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Posted 22 August 2014 - 07:17 AM

who was the last right hander to get to or exceed 200 Ks in a season?

 

 

Bert Blyleven in 1986 was the last Twins' RHP to get more than 200 Ks in one season.

 

Bert, Dean Chance, Camilo Pascual, Dave Boswell, and Walter Johnson (if you include the Senators) are the only RHP in Twins history to get more than 200 Ks in a year.

 

Jim Kaat, Johan, and Liriano are the only LHP to do it.

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#9 Kirby_waved_at_me

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Posted 22 August 2014 - 07:23 AM

Am I missing something? 36 / 5 = 7.2. Hughes should have at least six starts left this season, though you're right that it will be difficult to reach 200 Ks.

 

Hughes would need to average 7.5 Ks over 7 starts to get 200.5 Ks. 148 currently, 52 to go would be 7 X 7.42. 

if he gets 6 starts, he'll need to average 8.7 Ks

if he gets 5 starts, he'll need to average 10.4 Ks

 

For the season he's averaging 5.6 Ks per start, so not very likely, but he's going to be closer than most Twins' pitchers have been.


#10 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 22 August 2014 - 07:28 AM

Ah, so it was a typo. Good catch. His numbers per start were correct.


#11 JB_Iowa

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Posted 22 August 2014 - 07:33 AM

Andrew Walter ‏@MNfanfromafar· 14h 
FWIW, @fangraphs has Phil Hughes' 2014 value at $25.9 million w/ a month to go. His 3 year contract pays $24M total.

 

 

Pretty. Good. Value.

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#12 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 22 August 2014 - 07:36 AM

Andrew Walter ‏@MNfanfromafar· 14h 
FWIW, @fangraphs has Phil Hughes' 2014 value at $25.9 million w/ a month to go. His 3 year contract pays $24M total.

 

 

Pretty. Good. Value.

 

If Hughes can stay healthy and productive, he's going to be entering free agency again at age 30.

 

He has a shot at getting a $80-100m contract. So weird to think about. It seems like the guy has been in the league for 15 years.


#13 Kirby_waved_at_me

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Posted 22 August 2014 - 07:40 AM

The first time the Twins were rumored to be trying to acquire Hughes was back when they were looking for a trade partner for Santana - wasn't a Hughes / Melky / Ian Kennedy package mentioned? That does seem like a lifetime ago.

 

It would be interesting if the Twins do manage to go after Cabrera in the offseason and end up with 2 of the guys they might have acquired for Johan so long ago. 


#14 Monkeypaws

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Posted 22 August 2014 - 07:54 AM

The first time the Twins were rumored to be trying to acquire Hughes was back when they were looking for a trade partner for Santana - wasn't a Hughes / Melky / Ian Kennedy package mentioned? That does seem like a lifetime ago.

 

It would be interesting if the Twins do manage to go after Cabrera in the offseason and end up with 2 of the guys they might have acquired for Johan so long ago. 

I had that same thought. Funny old game this baseball. They should go after Kennedy too and complete the troika.


#15 spanman2

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Posted 22 August 2014 - 08:12 AM

The Twins have to be very pleased at the numbers Hughes has put up this year.One would think they (players) believe that they have a chance to win every time he takes the mound.If Gibson can get off the what seems to be every other start has a chance at being a clunker train we have 2 solid starters for next year.I personally think Milone can be a 3rd solid starter next year.I am at a loss of words for how disappointing Nolasco has been this year and we have to hope he gets it turned around.If the organization isnt dead red set on Milone as a guranteed starter going into next season I would go into next year with 2 locked in starters and 3 open for competition. 

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#16 mike wants wins

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Posted 22 August 2014 - 08:14 AM

Andrew Walter ‏@MNfanfromafar· 14h 
FWIW, @fangraphs has Phil Hughes' 2014 value at $25.9 million w/ a month to go. His 3 year contract pays $24M total.

 

 

Pretty. Good. Value.

 

Given how people here feel about WAR, not sure how they feel about this analysis......since, it is based on WAR and value of a win.....

What I just typed is probably an opinion, not a fact. I mean, I'm usually right, so you should maybe assume it is or will be a fact soon, but that's up to you. :) Also, I am NOT trying to convince anyone I am correct, I'm just talking here, not arguing.


#17 mike wants wins

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Posted 22 August 2014 - 08:15 AM

I liked the signing, and like it even more now. he's been very good.

What I just typed is probably an opinion, not a fact. I mean, I'm usually right, so you should maybe assume it is or will be a fact soon, but that's up to you. :) Also, I am NOT trying to convince anyone I am correct, I'm just talking here, not arguing.


#18 Willihammer

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Posted 22 August 2014 - 08:26 AM

Kinda funny - everyone expected TF to solve Hughes' woes but he's actually done a little better on the road.

#19 JB_Iowa

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Posted 22 August 2014 - 08:39 AM

Given how people here feel about WAR, not sure how they feel about this analysis......since, it is based on WAR and value of a win.....

 

The thing is, that you could cut it in 1/2 and he'd still be a pretty good pick-up.

 

The accuracy of the actual numbers don't mean that much -- it is all just saying that this was a good signing.

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#20 SweetOne69

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Posted 22 August 2014 - 09:36 AM

Am I missing something? 36 / 5 = 7.2. Hughes should have at least six starts left this season, though you're right that it will be difficult to reach 200 Ks.

 

You are correct, I had it correct the first time and confused myself and changed it.With the DH on Saturday, there are 35 game days left (since they are bringing up a special pitcher for game 1), Which means that he should get 7 starts especially since Gardy doesn't typically skip guys when there is an off day.

 

But the rest of my math is correct.




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