Posted 24 August 2014 - 07:56 PM
NOT a part of this discussion overall as too much math makes my head hurt. I was an Enligj major. Lol
But the discussion is interesting, and has made me smile and laugh a few times.
I am, however, reminded of the old line...how does it go now..."there are statistics, damn statistics, and lies" if I remember correctly.
Baseball has forever been, and will be, a game of statistics and numbers. Everything gets crunched nowadays. I feel it's gotten to the point where we're trying to measure a SP taking the mound, on a day game, vs a certain team, with a certain umpire calling the game, if the sky is clear vs cloudy, if Mr Smith and his pitch framing numbers are behind the plate, and if the SP, Mr Jones, had regular Cheerios vs the Honey Nut variety. Did I mention it was a start in July on a Tuesday vs an August start on a Thursday?
My point is statistical information is very important, and helps measure and qualify certain measurables that may help measure or predict an outcome. But they are not necessarily quantitative in final result.
For instance; tell me a team hits on .240 and I can tell you that team is poor offensively and with such a poor BA, is probably a losing team. Now tell me that team is amongst the team leaders in OB% and HR production, and suddenly my perspective shifts, even though I still haven't seen the W-L record yet. Next, you tell me that team is amongst the league leaders in SV% and team SO's, and my measuring stick moves further up the scale, again without seeing a W-L record, further impressed with what this team must be accomplishing. Then I find out their team ERA is in the top third, and I'm convinced this is not only a winning team, but maybe a championship caliber team. Then I find out team defense is at the bottom of the league, they lead the league in un-earned runs, and rank last in BB allowed and suddenly I'm thinking we have a real problem team on our hands without yet seeing the W-L record to this point.
2011, the Twins were supposed to be one of the top teams in the AL. We know what happened. We still don't know for sure what happened in 2012 and 2013, but what we do know, and saw, was a team that seemed to lack any direction, lack of depth of talent and result, and had an awful lot of embarrassing results. Results that forced us, the most dedicated and did-hard fans, to turn the station.
I don't know how the 2014 final record is going to turn out yet. Nor does anyone else. I'm hoping for a strong finish to August, and a fun September for the first time in a long time. Final W-L record for 2014 compared to the last three years? Not a clue.
But here's the difference, statistics be damned. THIS season has been more fun than the last three, and there is no doubt of that. Why? Because tuning in or attending your favorite team in person and seeing them losing 7-1 in the third inning is very different than seeing them playing a competitive game 3-2 in the third inning. Losing is still losing. But watching a promising 23 yo player making things happen in a close game is not only more inviting than watching a struggling 32 yo trying to make a contribution.
The point is that statistics can lie. Or at least prove to be deceptive. The eyes are a powerful tool of observation and information collection. And this team is flat out more fun, more interesting, and more competitive with a brighter future than what we have seen the last few years.
"Nice catch Hayes...don't ever f*****g do it again."