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Article: Wake Me Up When September Ends: Starting Rotation

tommy milone rickynolasco trevor may kyle gibson phil hughes
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#21 Oxtung

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Posted 22 August 2014 - 12:20 AM

I looked at Nolascos Fangraphs page incorrectly, I apologize. My numbers were way off. My point with the numbers remain the same though they are just guesses based on past performance. The more past, the more likelihood of guessing close to correctly. So Nolasco is less than league average.
My original point remains the same and is what I am defending, I do not think we are too far away and if everything fell into place, we could contend for a playoff spot. I'm betting on 2016 though, not 2015. There is honestly no way to know next years ERA+ and that was what I am trying to say to Oxtung and other readers.This is a rebuild and we have to ride these guys out and see what we have.
I get your point. I am confident Meyer will be one of those elite pitchers. Nolasco had a 124 ERA+ one year. Often, that is what carries that World Series team, a career year from a few different players. Often the World Series champs have those breakout seasons, career years, good breaks and relatively good health. With all these untested, unproven young players, no one really knows what to expect next year. I just feel there is reason to hope based on the plethora of changes in the last 14 months and the much greater talent than the past few years.

In order for the Twins to win the division next season it's likely Meyer will have to come up and be an Ace right off the bat posting an ERA around 3.00.Hughes will have to improve upon this season posting an ERA around 3.25, Gibson will have to take a big step forward dropping his ERA into the 3.50 range and Nolasco will have to regain his 2013 league average standing.All of those pieces coming together in the same year seems highly unlikely.

 

I definitely hope they do, but I don't expect or predict that they will.It's ok to hope but we shouldn't be blinded to the realities of where the Twins are at. 


#22 Thegrin

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Posted 22 August 2014 - 01:08 AM

I am a fan.I look for signs of positive improvement in the Twins.Today. Hughes beat Kluber. Our best beat their best.It does not prove anything, but it points to progress.Heck, with a good winning streak, we could still be at or near .500 at seasons end.


#23 The Wise One

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Posted 22 August 2014 - 02:54 AM

2010 pitching staff had ERA+ of112, 109.91. 91 and 75 and still won 94 games


#24 The Wise One

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Posted 22 August 2014 - 02:55 AM

I am a fan.I look for signs of positive improvement in the Twins.Today. Hughes beat Kluber. Our best beat their best.It does not prove anything, but it points to progress.Heck, with a good winning streak, we could still be at or near .500 at seasons end.

Do the Twin's batters need to face an Ace to do well?


#25 Kirby_waved_at_me

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Posted 22 August 2014 - 06:54 AM

I think the Twins should be in the market for another big time starter - Lester, Scherzer, James Shields. I agree that the way the Twins will move forward is by having players that are better than good. The players on the team right now are mostly "good" right now. The Pitchers have been below league average, with one exception.

Hughes has been fantastic, and has been the Twins' Ace this year. But for a team that wants to play in the postseason, Hughes is a #2 or #3 starter on a playoff team.

I think the Twins can build around Hughes and Gibson. May and Meyer could be the future, or they could be league average. I don't expect either of them to be better in 2015 than Gibson has been this year. They most likely will need some more time facing major league talent before they are at their peak performance.

I think the Twins need to add another starter, and the floor should be one of the big three. Otherwise, the Twins are not making the playoffs until at least 2016.


#26 Oxtung

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Posted 22 August 2014 - 11:04 AM

2010 pitching staff had ERA+ of112, 109.91. 91 and 75 and still won 94 games

 

Here are some more ERA+ rotations

2011

NYY: 143, 119, 116, 107

TBR: 134, 128, 108, 111

Det: 231, 172, 93, 87

Tex: 150, 130, 126, 112

StL: 109, 108, 104, 104

Phi: 163, 160, 137, 127

 

2010

Tex: 134, 133, 121, 120

NYY: 136, 132, 103, 82 (Phil Hughes=103)

Min: 112, 109, 91, 91

TBR: 144, 100, 96, 89

Cin: 116, 112, 105, 96

Phi: 167, 145, 133, 86

Atl: 138, 117, 107, 98

SFG: 131, 127, 124, 114

 

2009

NYY: 137, 114, 111, 97

Min: 109, 100, 95, 90

LAA: 117, 115, 95, 87

Bos: 136, 121, 111, 102

LAD: 143, 124, 109, 106

StL: 182, 155, 117, 86

Phi: 144, 124, 104, 97

Col: 136, 116, 113, 109

 

2008

Bos: 160, 144, 115, 112

LAA: 131, 127, 119, 103

TBR: 127, 124, 119, 100

ChW: 138, 121, 119, 101

Mil: 156, 137, 101, 96

Phi: 141, 117, 104, 96

LaD: 133, 129, 112, 98

ChC: 210, 154, 117, 112

 

So, yes the Twins did make the playoffs that season and they did with an even worse rotation in 2009.Of course those are also the two worst (by a considerable margin too) rotations to make the playoffs in the last 6 seasons at least (looks like it will be 7 soon).

 

I think Twins fans are misled by those 2009 & 2010 teams making the playoffs.I think we tend to look at those teams and think they represent a typical playoff team when in fact they are far, far from it.They made it because the AL central was so weak those years and we beat up on it over and over.We were the best of a bad bunch.


#27 goulik

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Posted 22 August 2014 - 11:57 PM

On that, we agree!

With the addition of Wild card teams, above average teams can make the playoffs and be in contention for the playoffs without being true contenders.



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