I looked at Nolascos Fangraphs page incorrectly, I apologize. My numbers were way off. My point with the numbers remain the same though they are just guesses based on past performance. The more past, the more likelihood of guessing close to correctly. So Nolasco is less than league average.
My original point remains the same and is what I am defending, I do not think we are too far away and if everything fell into place, we could contend for a playoff spot. I'm betting on 2016 though, not 2015. There is honestly no way to know next years ERA+ and that was what I am trying to say to Oxtung and other readers.This is a rebuild and we have to ride these guys out and see what we have.
I get your point. I am confident Meyer will be one of those elite pitchers. Nolasco had a 124 ERA+ one year. Often, that is what carries that World Series team, a career year from a few different players. Often the World Series champs have those breakout seasons, career years, good breaks and relatively good health. With all these untested, unproven young players, no one really knows what to expect next year. I just feel there is reason to hope based on the plethora of changes in the last 14 months and the much greater talent than the past few years.
In order for the Twins to win the division next season it's likely Meyer will have to come up and be an Ace right off the bat posting an ERA around 3.00.Hughes will have to improve upon this season posting an ERA around 3.25, Gibson will have to take a big step forward dropping his ERA into the 3.50 range and Nolasco will have to regain his 2013 league average standing.All of those pieces coming together in the same year seems highly unlikely.
I definitely hope they do, but I don't expect or predict that they will.It's ok to hope but we shouldn't be blinded to the realities of where the Twins are at.