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THE END IS NEAR: Ron Gardenhire Knows About Fangraphs.com

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#21 SgtSchmidt11

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Posted 19 August 2014 - 12:48 PM

Here is the formula for FIP: (13HR+3BB-2K)/IP

 

HRs, BBs, Ks, IPs all happened, correct?So FIP is based on things that happened (facts) as is ERA (ER/IP)*9

 

They are both factual measurements.They just measure different facts and have different uses.

I would disagree because Out of Zone swing percentage is simply times swung/oppurtunities to swing.In no way is it debatable how many times Dozier swung at balls and how many times he didn't.

 

What if I were to argue that the formula would more accurately be represented by a 12HR variable?Whole #'s across the board seem really unlikely to be the "true" impact of these events anyways.This is likewise with WAR.The balance of fielding vs. hitting vs. running is not a settled debate, that's why there are different measures of WAR out there, because it isn't fact.

 

Don't get me wrong, I like FIP, but since the impact of fielders and wind and so many other variables are not completely understood, it is not fact, it is theory.

Edited by SgtSchmidt11, 19 August 2014 - 12:50 PM.


#22 Kirby_waved_at_me

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Posted 19 August 2014 - 12:55 PM

Would it more palatable to have a player (or one player per position) voted on at the end of each season to be the "Replacement Level Player of the Year" ?

 

Then you're using a real set of data from events that really happened- so, it's less Wins above replacement and more "Wins Above 2014 Nick Hundley"

 

Is that better than setting an arbitrary line, or is that just a different arbitrary line?


#23 tobi0040

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Posted 19 August 2014 - 01:09 PM

Would it more palatable to have a player (or one player per position) voted on at the end of each season to be the "Replacement Level Player of the Year" ?

 

Then you're using a real set of data from events that really happened- so, it's less Wins above replacement and more "Wins Above 2014 Nick Hundley"

 

Is that better than setting an arbitrary line, or is that just a different arbitrary line?

 

I would prefer something quantitative versus a vote.Voting gives us 38 year old gold glove outfielders


#24 Kirby_waved_at_me

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Posted 19 August 2014 - 01:28 PM

Maybe "Vote" is the wrong phrasing - but somehow a player is chosen... based on their below average performance, like the Mendoza line (which is kind of a poor example since Mario Mendoza generally was a bit better than a .200 hitter)

 

Is the fact that players are being compared to a baseline that is not a a real-world example an issue, or is it something else? How should players be compared to one another?


#25 tobi0040

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Posted 19 August 2014 - 01:42 PM

Maybe "Vote" is the wrong phrasing - but somehow a player is chosen... based on their below average performance, like the Mendoza line (which is kind of a poor example since Mario Mendoza generally was a bit better than a .200 hitter)

 

Is the fact that players are being compared to a baseline that is not a a real-world example an issue, or is it something else? How should players be compared to one another?

 

I think people will never agree on the appropriate statsistic, especially as new one's are created every day. Each has a limitation to some degree and people will highlight the limitations of each. 

 

My two cents believes you take 4-5 of the more popular ones and use them all.


#26 Kirby_waved_at_me

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Posted 19 August 2014 - 01:52 PM

sure - and is that not the goal for a stat like WAR ? To take more than one stat and combine them to give a general value for a player? 

 

I'm not really advocating for using WAR alone, I agree that there are weaknesses to using any metric on its own. I do like the conversation, though.

 

No two players are really equivalent, but that's what makes the comparison interesting to examine, right?

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#27 Thrylos

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Posted 19 August 2014 - 01:55 PM

I would disagree because Out of Zone swing percentage is simply times swung/oppurtunities to swing.In no way is it debatable how many times Dozier swung at balls and how many times he didn't.

 

The Zone part is debatable ;)Each umpire has his own zone and if a particular ump's zone is different than an idealized PitchF/X or such zone, some OOZ swings, are actually adjustments for that particular zone.So really not out of that umpires' zone.

 

not that simple. 

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#28 SgtSchmidt11

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Posted 19 August 2014 - 05:29 PM

The Zone part is debatable ;)Each umpire has his own zone and if a particular ump's zone is different than an idealized PitchF/X or such zone, some OOZ swings, are actually adjustments for that particular zone.So really not out of that umpires' zone.
 
not that simple.

Since the only margin there is called strikes and balls that a player looks at, I think the margin is very small. And since all players deal with the same umpires, that margin is incredibly small.

What the impact of fielding is on an actual player's value is not even close to being determined, the margin in WAR is much larger.

Also I'm not debating that it isn't useful, but that it is not a fact.

#29 Thegrin

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Posted 20 August 2014 - 12:46 AM

The umpires zone will continue to be a problem until MLB lets technology call balls and strikes.Without umpires calling balls and strikes, batters with a good eye will be rewarded and pitchers with good control will be rewarded. You will find that flame throwers will lose their value and "pitchers" will gain value, and probably batting averages, hits and runs will all rise.


#30 Oxtung

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Posted 21 August 2014 - 12:19 AM

Since the only margin there is called strikes and balls that a player looks at, I think the margin is very small. And since all players deal with the same umpires, that margin is incredibly small.

What the impact of fielding is on an actual player's value is not even close to being determined, the margin in WAR is much larger.

Also I'm not debating that it isn't useful, but that it is not a fact.

 

If your argument is only statistics that are "facts" should be used then we're going to be very, very limited.While it is easy to assume that standard statistics like RBI, batting average, ERA, strikeouts, etc... are "fact" they aren't in reality.Anything that requires a human eye to determine the outcome is subjective; errors, strikeouts, walks, etc.... When you get right down to it what baseball statistic isn't affected by human subjectivity? What is the difference if that subjectivity is derived via the human eye or by a human weighting fielding vs offense vs baserunning?


#31 The Wise One

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Posted 21 August 2014 - 02:52 AM

The umpires zone will continue to be a problem until MLB lets technology call balls and strikes.Without umpires calling balls and strikes, batters with a good eye will be rewarded and pitchers with good control will be rewarded. You will find that flame throwers will lose their value and "pitchers" will gain value, and probably batting averages, hits and runs will all rise.

The can star using the technology when it can be calibrated to each batters zone as every batter has a slightly different shape. The technology would also have to be able to sense if the ball moves over the plat from the side, drops in from the top. I do not think that technology currently exists


#32 The Wise One

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Posted 21 August 2014 - 02:59 AM

In reality I don't think anyone here really knows how the Twins gather and use data. I don't think anyone knows how the Twins prepare for a game. There is a legitimate question with some of the players of the last few years if they can even use the information.

I do think some here think that Gardenhire's game preperatiYou can't tell Deduno where to throw the fastball, and where not to.on is 2 cheeseburger,a beer and a talk to Provost.


#33 SgtSchmidt11

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Posted 21 August 2014 - 01:42 PM

Please read the last line of my post.

 

I'm not saying that we should only use stats that are facts.I'm arguing that other stats can be useful.But that they are not facts. 

 

And an RBI is an RBI.If you get a hit and somebody scores without an error, it's an RBI.That's a fact.How useful that is is debatable though.

 

A stat based on theory like FIP can be more useful then a stat based on fact, like RBI's.This is not always the case, but it can be.


#34 Oxtung

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Posted 21 August 2014 - 04:37 PM

Please read the last line of my post.

 

I'm not saying that we should only use stats that are facts.I'm arguing that other stats can be useful.But that they are not facts. 

 

And an RBI is an RBI.If you get a hit and somebody scores without an error, it's an RBI.That's a fact.How useful that is is debatable though.

 

A stat based on theory like FIP can be more useful then a stat based on fact, like RBI's.This is not always the case, but it can be.

 

An RBI is an RBI right up until the point when the fielder makes a questionable play on a ball and a human has to make a subjective decision on whether that was an error or not.It's an RBI right up until you realize that the ump made a bad strikes/ball call on a 1-2 count allowing the batter to get another chance on a 2-2 count that led to the hit allowing that run to cross instead of having to go sit down.

 

Almost everything in baseball is influenced by human subjectivity.It's just a matter of how much.


#35 Paul Pleiss

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Posted 21 August 2014 - 11:26 PM

True or False: Ron Gardenhire uses AOL.com and has a stock-pile of AOL CD's that he uses month after month to sign up for free internet access, and then uses AskJeeves.com to search for FanGraphs on his old Apple II computer which someone has someone hooked up to a CD drive and the internet.

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#36 Kirby_waved_at_me

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Posted 22 August 2014 - 10:11 AM

False, he does all his firing of things through the internet at the public library.


#37 mike wants wins

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Posted 22 August 2014 - 10:12 AM

Knowing something exists, and being willing to evolve yourself through its use are two different things.

What I just typed is probably an opinion, not a fact. I mean, I'm usually right, so you should maybe assume it is or will be a fact soon, but that's up to you. :) Also, I am NOT trying to convince anyone I am correct, I'm just talking here, not arguing.


#38 SgtSchmidt11

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Posted 22 August 2014 - 11:01 AM

An RBI is an RBI right up until the point when the fielder makes a questionable play on a ball and a human has to make a subjective decision on whether that was an error or not.It's an RBI right up until you realize that the ump made a bad strikes/ball call on a 1-2 count allowing the batter to get another chance on a 2-2 count that led to the hit allowing that run to cross instead of having to go sit down.

 

Almost everything in baseball is influenced by human subjectivity.It's just a matter of how much.

An RBI is an RBI.That a fielder made a questionable play is irrelevant to an RBI being scored an RBI.That the ump made a bad call on the pitch before is irrelevant to it being an RBI.No way is it debatable that Miguel Cabrera had 139 RBI's in 2012.Otherwise we are in the "nothing is true" territory.

 

As noted, theories can be more useful but that doesn't make them fact. 

Edited by SgtSchmidt11, 22 August 2014 - 11:02 AM.


#39 Oxtung

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Posted 22 August 2014 - 11:08 AM

An RBI is an RBI.That a fielder made a questionable play is irrelevant to an RBI being scored an RBI.That the ump made a bad call on the pitch before is irrelevant to it being an RBI.No way is it debatable that Miguel Cabrera had 139 RBI's in 2012.Otherwise we are in the "nothing is true" territory.

 

As noted, theories can be more useful but that doesn't make them fact. 

So who gets to decide which subjective calls are "real" and which are "fake"?


#40 SgtSchmidt11

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Posted 22 August 2014 - 11:16 AM

So who gets to decide which subjective calls are "real" and which are "fake"?

The official scorer and the umpires interpret the rules and apply them.If a grevious error has been made the MLB has been known to correct them.Or the Replay.

 

Just like a judge at a court case many things can be up for interpretation.Somebody has to make the call. 

 

Here is a metaphor for what you are arguing vs. what I am arguing.

 

You are arguing that all the evidence says that O.J. Simpson killed Nicole Simpson, and I would not disagree. 

 

I am arguing that he was found not guilty.That is a fact.That there was human interpretation is irrelevant.He may have done it or not, but he was found not guilty.

 

The scorer ruled it an RBI, therefore it is.

Edited by SgtSchmidt11, 22 August 2014 - 11:22 AM.